corso di relazioni internazionali
TRANSCRIPT
Corso di Relazioni Internazionali
Russia’s foreign policy
and EU-Russia relations
25 maggio 2020
Dr. Marco Siddi
Lecture outline
1. Introduction
2. Russian foreign policy: past sources and debates
3. From Putin I and II to Putin III and IV (presidencies)
4. Eurasian Union and Eurasianism
5. EU-Russia relations: energy trade, Ukraine crisis and ‘hybrid’ conflict
Levels of analysis and Russian foreign policy
Individual: leaders (ex. Vladimir Putin)
State/domestic: Russian civilisationaldebates (Slavophiles vs Westernisers); national history and culture (authoritarianism); influence of energy companies, Orthodox Church, army; diversionary war
International: external threats(Napoleon, Hitler, USA..) and Russia’s defensive or offensive reaction (ex. imperial mission), quest of status
Russia and the international system
1815-1914: Russia as part of the Concert of Europe
autocracy, orthodoxy, militarism
1919-1941: Soviet Russia as a revisionist power
Ideological inspiration/challenge
1941-1945: Soviet Union as anti-Nazi bulwark
1945-1990: leader of Eastern bloc in the ColdWar, bipolarism
1990s: democratic follower in unipolar world?
2000s-2010s: pursuit of multipolarism
Russian civilisational debates
Historically, Russian identity defined in relation to Europe
Westernisers vs Slavophiles: is (Western) Europe a model or is Russia the true Europe?
Gorbachev’s New Thinking and Westernizers vs Neo-Eurasianists
Putin’s “Euro-East” and Eurasian Union
Postcolonial approach to Russia’s foreign policy/relation with EU
V. Morozov: EU occupies a hegemonic position; Russia subaltern actor in both Europe
and capitalist world, which it joined late and on which it depends economically
- West’s expectation that Russia adopts EU norms and Western economic system
Russia colonised its internal periphery on behalf of (European) capitalist coreExample: Siberian energy resources exported to the EU
Annexation of Crimea as perceived act of decolonisation from the normatively and politically hegemonic West
This went hand in hand with rise of “paleoconservatives” and opposition to “Gayropa”
Yet, the structure of dependence (Europe as hegemonic referent) is still in place
Russia from 1990s to Putin
1990s: collapse of the USSR, economic crises, oligarchic system and loss of empire. Pursuit of Western integration but tensions in the Balkans (Kosovo) and NATO enlargement
2000-2008: the ‘first’ Putin era: the rise in the oil price boosts the Russian economy, trade with the EU. Cooperation with the West, especially Europe, but foreign policy ambitions grow:
• Rejection of US unilateralism (Iraq war)
• Revisionist turn: USSR fall as ‘geopolitical catastrophe’
• View of colour revolutions in post-Soviet space (Ukraine, Georgia) as Western-sponsored coups
• Opposition to NATO enlargement → War in Georgia (2008)
The Medvedev years and back to Putin
2008: election of B. Obama (US) and D. Medvedev (Russia) as presidents. Pursuit of a reset in US-Russia relations – New START treaty signed (2010)
Relations also improve with the EU: EU-Russia Partnership for Modernisation (2010)
Russia joins the World Trade Organisation (2011)
2011-2: new deterioration of relations
• Arab Spring and Western military intervention in Libya; Syrian crisis
• Mass protests in Russian cities after 2011 parliamentary elections and US criticism
• Putin’s re-election in 2012 not welcomed in the West
• 2013 Anti-gay and ‘foreign agent’ laws in Russia, conservative turn
From the Ukraine crisis to the Syrian crisis
2013-2014: escalation of the Ukraine crisis over Kiev’s geopolitical orientation
• Russia’s annexation of Crimea (March 2014)
• War in Donbass
• Western sanctions against Russia + Minsk-2 ceasefire agreement
September 2015: Russia’s military intervention in Syria
• Defeat of Isis and of ‘Free Syrian army’ (2016-8), leader of Astana peace process
• Stronger Russian position in the MENA region – Ex. OPEC+ deal
Cooperation with China and some European countries, energy trade continues
Pursuit of a multipolar world where Russia and the ‘Russian world’ are one of the poles
The Eurasian Economic Union
Created in January 2015 by Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan(process started in 2010 with customs union); Armenia, Kyrgyzstan joined shortly after
182 million people, vast energy resources
Drivers: 2008 economic crisis, boost trade & investment
Supranational institutions: Eurasian EconomicCommission, Supreme Council, Eurasian Court; decision-making (mostly) by consensus
Geopolitical project or genuine economic integration?
Rejection of EU-centric order/cooperation with EU Neo-Eurasianism vs Lisbon-Vladivostok space
The Eurasian Economic Union
Achievements
- First serious attempt at economic integration after USSR
- Upholding historic economic links + prospects for ’ever closer integration’
Limitations
- Reproducing rather than transforming sovereignty (Roberts & Moshes): intergovernmental rather thansupranational, dependent on national leaders.. And on Russia’s economic performance
- Limited market liberalisation, competences and enforcement powers
- Different economic models, priorities/identities and size of member states
- State-driven: limited role of business elites or civil society
- Concerns of members about Russian dominance/coercion and isolation following the Ukraine crisis, as well as risk of loss of trade with Ukraine/West
Case study: EU-Russia relations
Energy trade
Partly shared security environment
Search of cooperation until 2014:
Partnership and cooperation agreement (1997)
EU-Russia Common Spaces (2003)
Partnership for Modernisation (2010)
The relationship deteriorates over EU enlargement and transatlantic link
Russia’s share in EU gas and oil import (red)
Russia’s gas pipelines to Europe
Energy trade as positive interdependence(liberal perspective)
Energy trade as a security dilemma: claimthat Russia can deploy an energy weaponagainst Europe (realist view)
(Western) Europe’s detente and cooperationwith Russia had energy trade as a centralcomponent
Political controversies over new projects(Nord Stream 2) after Ukraine crisis
EU-Russia relations after 2014
Deterioration due to the Ukraine and Syrian crises and sanctions
2016-9: Russia is accused of interfering in Western electoral processes
Russian covert operations in the West – ex.: Skripal’s poisoning (2018)
Trump’s election and Brexit: the West is seen as weakening, while Russia scores foreign policy successes in the Middle East
Importance of Russia for European security (INF treaty, START)
→ EU dilemma: reconciliation (Macron) or containment (Poland, Baltics)
Energy interdependence continues