daily i-forex-report-1 by epic research 08 may 2013

DAILY I FOREX REPORT

8th

MAY 2013

WWW.EPICRESEARCH.CO +91 9752199966

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Aussie Plummets As RBA Unexpectedly Cuts The Interest Rate

AUD/USD- Trading the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Meetin

Major Currencies May Enter Consolidation on Absent Event Risk

Australian Dollar Sinks as RBA Cuts Key Interest Rate to Record Low

Soft German Factory Orders Report May Damage Euro on ECB Bets

The Australian Dollar underperformed after the Reserve Bank of Australia cut its benchmark interest rate to a record low at 2.75 percent, as expected. The currency slid as much as 0.8 percent on average against its top counterparts. Traders are now pricing in another 25bps reduction at the June meeting and at least one further cut beyond that over the coming 12 months.

The economic calendar is relatively quiet in European trading hours, with Germany’s Factory Orders report amounting to the only bit of noteworthy event risk on the docket. Expectations call for a 2.9 percent year-on-year decline in March, marking the worst performance in six months. A soft print may reinforce overnight comments from ECB President Mario Draghi, who said the central bank may cut rates again if needed, and put downward pressure on the Euro.

TRADING TIPS

BUY EURUSD ABOVE

1.3115 tgs 1.3135/1.3155

sl 1.3085

BUY USDJPY ABOVE 99.35

tgt 99.55/99.75 SL 99.05

SELL GBPUSD BELOW

1.5525 Tgt 1.5505/1.5485

SL 1.5555

HEADLINES


HOURLY EURUSD CHART

HOURLY EURUSD CHART

ANALYSIS

OPEN: 1.3079 EURUSD LOOKS UPWARD

HIGH: 1.3116 TREND: BULLISH

LOW: 1.3079 STRATEGY: BUY ON DIPS

CLOSE: 1.3110 MACD =>.0004(BULLISH SIGNAL)

RSI => 65(BULLISH SIGNAL)

HOURLY USDJPY CHART

ANALYSIS

OPEN: 99.14 USDJPY LOOKS UPWARDS





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HOURLY GBPUSD CHART

ANALYSIS

OPEN: 1.5538 GBPUSD LOOKS DOWNWARD

HIGH: 1.5540 TREND: BEARISH

LOW: 1.5522 STRATEGY: SELL ON RISE

CLOSE: 1.5527 MACD =>.0001(BEARISH SIGNAL)

RSI => 38(BEARISH SIGNAL)

HOURLY EURGBP CHART

ANALYSIS

OPEN: 00.8418 EURGBP LOOKS UPWARDS







HOURLY USD INDEX CHART

ANALYSIS

OPEN: 82.2990 USDINDEX LOOKS UPWARDS





ECONOMIC CALLENDER

Date Time Currency Event Importance Actual Forecast Previous Notes

Sun May 5

13:30

USD Fed's Pianalto Gives Commencement Speech in Ohio

Low

Mon

May 6 00:23

CNY Leading Index (MAR)

Medium 99.38

99.98

00:30

AUD TD Securities Inflation (YoY) (APR)

Medium 2.1%

2.1%

00:30

AUD TD Securities Inflation (MoM) (APR)

Low 0.3%

0.2%

01:30

AUD Retail Sales Ex Inflation(QoQ) (1Q)

Medium 2.2% 1.7% 0.1%

01:30

AUD Retail Sales s.a. (MoM) (MAR)

Medium -0.4% 0.1% 1.3%

01:30

AUD ANZ Job Advertisements (MoM) (APR)

Low -1.3%

-0.4%

01:45

CNY HSBC Services PMI (APR)

Medium 51.1

54.3

07:45

EUR Italian Purchasing Manager Index Services (APR)

Low 47.0 45.9 45.5

07:50

EUR French Purchasing Manager Index Services (APR F)

Low 44.3 44.1 44.1

07:55

EUR German Purchasing Manager Index Services (APR F)

Medium 49.6 49.2 49.2

08:00

EUR Euro-Zone Purchasing Manager Index Composite (APR F)

Medium 46.9 46.6 46.5

08:00

EUR Euro-Zone Purchasing Manager Index Services (APR F)

Medium 47.0 46.6 46.6

08:30

EUR Euro-Zone Sentix Investor Confidence (MAY)

Medium -15.6 -15.2 -17.3

09:00

EUR Euro-Zone Retail Sales (YoY) (MAR)

Medium -2.4% -2.2% -1.7%

09:00

EUR Euro-Zone Retail Sales (MoM) (MAR)

Low -0.1% -0.1% -0.2%

09:00

EUR German FinMin Schaeuble Speaks on European Integration

Low

12:30

CAD Building Permits (MoM) (MAR)

Medium

1.0% 1.7%

14:00

CAD Ivey Purchasing Managers Index s.a. (APR)

Medium

58.0 61.6

22:45

NZD Average Hourly Earnings (QoQ) (1Q)

Medium

1.0% -0.4%

22:45

NZD Labor Cost Private Sector (QoQ) (1Q)

Low

0.5% 0.6%

22:45

NZD Private Wages ex Overtime (QoQ) (1Q)

Low

0.5% 0.5%

23:01

GBP BRC Shop Price Index (YoY) (APR)

Low

1.4%

23:01

GBP Lloyds Employment Confidence (APR)

Low

-45

23:30

AUD AiG Performance of Construction Index (APR)

Medium

39

Tue

May 7 01:30

AUD House Price Index (QoQ) (1Q)

Medium

1.8% 1.6%

01:30

AUD House Price Index (YoY) (1Q)

Medium

4.0% 2.1%

01:30

AUD Trade Balance (Australian dollar) (MAR)

Medium

0M -178M

04:30

LIVE

AUD Reserve Bank of Australia Rate Decision (MAY 7)

High

3.00% 3.00%

05:45

CHF SECO Consumer Confidence (APR)

Medium

-2 -6

05:45

CHF Unemployment Rate (APR)

Medium

3.1% 3.2%

05:45

CHF Unemployment Rate s.a. (APR)

Medium

3.1% 3.1%

06:30

AUD Foreign Reserves (Australian dollar) (APR)

Low

A$48.7B

07:00

CHF Foreign Currency Reserves (APR)

Low

435.0B 438.3B

10:00

EUR German Factory Orders n.s.a. (YoY) (MAR)

Medium

-2.9% 0.0%

10:00

EUR German Factory Orders s.a. (MoM) (MAR)

Low

-0.5% 2.3%

14:00

USD IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism (MAY)

Low

47.3 46.2

14:00

USD JOLTs Job Openings (MAR)

Low

3925

19:00

USD Consumer Credit (MAR)

Medium

$16.000B $18.139B

23:01

GBP BRC Sales Like-For-Like (YoY) (APR)

Low

1.9% 1.9%

Wed May 8

04:00

CNY Trade Balance (USD) (APR)

Medium

$15.50B -$0.88B

04:00

CNY Exports (YoY) (APR)

Low

10.0% 10.0%

04:00

CNY Imports (YoY) (APR)

Low

13.0% 14.1%

04:00

GBP Halifax House Price (3MoY) (APR)

Low

1.6% 1.1%

04:00

GBP Halifax Plc House Prices s.a. (MoM) (APR)

Low

0.2% 0.2%

04:00

GBP New Car Registrations (YoY) (APR)

Low

5.9%

07:15

CHF CPI - EU Harmonised (YoY) (APR)

Medium

-0.3%

07:15

CHF Consumer Price Index (YoY) (APR)

Medium

-0.5% -0.6%

07:15

CHF CPI - EU Harmonised (MoM) (APR)

Low

0.5%

07:15

CHF Consumer Price Index (MoM) (APR)

Low

0.1% 0.2%

10:00

EUR German Industrial Production n.s.a. and w.d.a. (YoY) (MAR)

Medium

-3.8% -1.8%

10:00

EUR German Industrial Production s.a. (MoM) (MAR)

Low

-0.1% 0.5%

11:00

USD MBA Mortgage Applications (MAY 3)

Low

1.8%

12:15

CAD Housing Starts (APR)

Medium

175.0K 184.0K

12:30

USD Fed's Stein Speaks at Chicago Fed Conference

Low

14:30

USD DOE Cushing OK Crude Inventory (MAY 3)

Low

-1382K

14:30

USD DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories (MAY 3)

Low

6696K

14:30

USD DOE U.S. Distillate Inventory (MAY 3)

Low

474K

14:30

USD DOE U.S. Gasoline Inventories (MAY 3)

Low

-1818K

22:45

NZD Unemployment Rate (1Q)

High

6.8% 6.9%

22:45

NZD Employment Change (QoQ) (1Q)

Medium

1.0% -1.0%

22:45

NZD Employment Change (YoY) (1Q)

Medium

-0.7% -1.4%

22:45

NZD Participation Rate (QoQ) (1Q)

Low

67.9% 67.2%

23:50

JPY Official Reserve Assets (APR)

Low

$1254.4B

Thu

May 9 00:00

NZD QV House Prices (YoY) (APR)

Low

6.5%

01:30

LIVE

AUD Employment Change (APR)

High

11.0K -36.1K

01:30

LIVE

AUD Unemployment Rate (APR)

High

5.6% 5.6%

01:30

CNY Consumer Price Index (YoY) (APR)

High

2.3% 2.1%

01:30

AUD Full Time Employment Change (APR)

Medium

-7.4K

01:30

CNY Producer Price Index (YoY) (APR)

Medium

-2.3% -1.9%

01:30

AUD Part Time Employment Change (APR)

Low

-28.7K

01:30

AUD Participation Rate (APR)

Low

65.1% 65.1%

02:00

JPY Tokyo Avg Office Vacancies (APR)

Low

8.56%

05:00

JPY Leading Index (MAR P)

Medium

97.7 97.6

05:00

JPY Coincident Index (MAR P)

Low

93.2 92.4

08:00

EUR ECB Publishes Monthly Report

High

08:30

GBP Industrial Production (YoY) (MAR)

Medium

-1.6% -2.2%

08:30

GBP Manufacturing Production (YoY) (MAR)

Medium

-2.0% -1.4%

08:30

GBP Industrial Production (MoM) (MAR)

Low

0.2% 1.0%

08:30

GBP Manufacturing Production (MoM) (MAR)

Low

0.3% 0.8%

11:00

GBP BOE Asset Purchase Target (MAY)

High

375B 375B

11:00

GBP Bank of England Rate Decision (MAY 9)

High

0.50% 0.50%

12:00

USD Fed's Lacker Speaks on Financial Stability in New York

Low

12:30

CAD New Housing Price Index (YoY) (MAR)

Medium

2.1% 2.1%

12:30

USD Initial Jobless Claims (MAY 4)

Medium

335K 324K

12:30

CAD New Housing Price Index (MoM) (MAR)

Low

0.1% 0.2%

12:30

USD Continuing Claims (APR 27)

Low

3018K 3019K

14:00

GBP NIESR Gross Domestic Product Estimate (APR)

High

0.10%

14:00

USD Wholesale Inventories (MAR)

Medium

0.4% -0.3%

14:00

USD Wholesale Sales (MoM) (MAR)

Low

0.1% 1.7%

14:30

USD EIA Natural Gas Storage Change (MAY 3)

Low

43

17:15

USD Fed's Plosser Speaks on Monetary Policy in New York

Low

22:45

NZD NZ Card Spending - Retail (MoM) (APR)

Medium

0.5% -0.5%

22:45

NZD NZ Card Spending (MoM) (APR)

Medium

-1.2%

23:50

JPY Bank Lending incl Trusts (YoY) (APR)

Medium

23:50

JPY Trade Balance - BOP Basis (Yen) (MAR)

Medium

-¥274.0B -¥677.0B

23:50

JPY Adjusted Current Account Total (Yen) (MAR)

Low

¥480.4B -¥0.1B

23:50

JPY Bank Lending Banks ex-Trust (APR)

Low

1.9%

23:50

JPY Current Account Balance (YoY) (MAR)

Low

-5.7% -47.0%

23:50

JPY Current Account Total (Yen) (MAR)

Low

¥1216.3B ¥637.4B

23:50

JPY Foreign Buying Japan Bonds (Yen) (MAY 3)

Low

23:50

JPY Foreign Buying Japan Stocks (Yen) (MAY 3)

Low

23:50

JPY Japan Buying Foreign Bonds (Yen) (MAY 3)

Low

23:50

JPY Japan Buying Foreign Stocks (Yen) (MAY 3)

Low

Fri

May 10

GBP G7 Finance Ministers, Central Bank Chiefs, Meet in UK

High

04:00

CNY New Yuan Loans (APR)

High

767.5B 1060.0B

04:00

CNY Aggregate Financing (APR)

Low

1480.0B 2544.3B

04:00

CNY Money Supply - M0 (YoY) (APR)

Low

12.0% 12.4%

04:00


Low

11.3% 11.9%

04:00


Low

15.5% 15.7%

04:30

JPY Bankruptcies (YoY) (APR)

Medium

-20.0%

05:00

JPY Eco Watchers Survey: Outlook (APR)

Medium

57.5

05:00

JPY Eco Watchers Survey: Current (APR)

Low

57.3

06:00

EUR German Trade Balance (euros) (MAR)

Medium

17.5B 16.8B

06:00

EUR German Current Account (euros) (MAR)

Low

19.5B 16.0B

06:00

EUR German Exports s.a. (MoM) (MAR)

Low

0.5% -1.5%

06:00

EUR German Imports s.a. (MoM) (MAR)

Low

1.5% -3.9%

08:30

GBP Construction Output (YoY) (MAR)

Medium

-6.6% -7.0%

08:30

GBP Visible Trade Balance (Pounds) (MAR)

Medium

-£9000 -£9416

08:30

GBP Construction Output (MoM) (MAR)

Low

15.0% 5.5%

08:30

GBP Total Trade Balance (Pounds) (MAR)

Low

-£3100 -£3642

08:30

GBP Trade Balance Non EU (Pounds) (MAR)

Low

-£4000 -£4276

12:25

USD Fed's Evans Speaks at Chicago Fed Conference

Low

12:30

LIVE

CAD Net Change in Employment (APR)

High

15.0K -54.5K

12:30

LIVE

CAD Unemployment Rate (APR)

High

7.20% 7.20%

12:30

Full Time Employment Change (APR)

Medium

-54.0K

12:30

Part Time Employment Change (APR)

Low

-0.4K

12:30

Participation Rate (APR)

Low

66.7 66.6

13:30

Fed's Bernanke Speaks at Chicago Fed Conference

Medium

18:00

USD Monthly Budget Statement (APR)

Medium

$106.0B

18:00

Fed's George Speaks on the Economy in Wyoming

Low

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daily i-forex-report-1 by epic research 08 may 2013

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