daily i-forex-report-1 by epic research 17 may 2013
TRANSCRIPT
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US Dollar Rally Unfazed by a Japan GDP Beat
Overnight Euro Libor at 0.024%, overnight Sterling Libor at 0.483%, according to BBA.
Three Year Inflation Low Fails to Move Euro
The Euro-zone inflation rate was confirmed at a three year low in April, according to a final estimate by Eurostat. The consumer price index was reported at 1.2% higher than April 2012, unchanged from a previous estimate and down from 1.7% inflation rate in March. Euro-zone consumer prices fell 0.1% in March on a monthly basis.
The Euro-zone trade balance was reported at a record high 18.7 billion Euros in March (seasonally adjusted), beating expectations for 11.5 billion Euros and up from a revised 12.7 billion Euros in February.
The Euro-zone inflation rate is well below the ECB’s 2% inflation target, and therefore allows the central bank to remain accommodative. The ECB cut the interest rate by 25 basis points to 0.50% in the May meeting. Therefore, a lower than expected inflation rate may be Euro negative.
TRADING TIPS
SELL EURUSD BELOW
1.2870 TGT 1.2850/1.2830
SL 1.2900
BUY USDJPY ABOVE 102.60
TGT 102.80/103.00 SL
102.30
SELL GBPUSD BELOW
1.5230 TGT 1.5210/1.5190
SL 1.5260
HEADLINES
HOURLY EURUSD CHART
HOURLY EURUSD CHART
ANALYSIS
OPEN: 1.2872 EURUSD LOOKS DOWNWARD
HIGH: 1.2878 TREND: BEARISH
LOW: 1.2872 STRATEGY: SELL ON RISE
CLOSE: 1.2873 MACD =>-.0010(BEARISHSIGNAL)
RSI => 41(BEARISH SIGNAL)
HOURLY USDJPY CHART
ANALYSIS
OPEN: 102.58 USDJPY LOOKS UPWARD
HIGH: 102.59 TREND: BULLISH
LOW: 102.53 STRATEGY: BUY ON DIP
CLOSE: 102.54 MACD =>.07(BULLISH SIGNAL)
RSI => 63(BULLISHSIGNAL)
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HOURLY GBPUSD CHART
ANALYSIS
OPEN: 1.5229 GBPUSD LOOKS DOWNWARD
HIGH: 1.5234 TREND: BEARISH
LOW: 1.5226 STRATEGY: SELL ON RISE
CLOSE: 1.5226 MACD =>-.0005(BEARISH SIGNAL)
RSI => 43.0383(BEARISH SIGNAL)
HOURLY EURGBP CHART
ANALYSIS
OPEN: 00.8452 EURGBP LOOKS UPWARD
HIGH: 00.8454 TREND: BULLISH
LOW: 00.8451 STRATEGY: BUY ON DIPS
CLOSE: 00.8453 MACD =>-.0004(BULLISH SIGNAL)
RSI => 48.5521(BULLISH SIGNAL)
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HOURLY USD INDEX CHART
ANALYSIS
OPEN: 83.9350 USDINDEX LOOKS UPWARD
HIGH: 83.9390 TREND: BULLISH
LOW: 83.9390 STRATEGY: BUY ON DIP
CLOSE: 83.8880 MACD =>-.0440(BULLISHSIGNAL)
RSI => 72.1996(BULLISH SIGNAL)
Date Time Currency Event Importance Actual Forecast Previous
Sun
May 12 22:14
NZD REINZ House Sales (YoY) (APR)
Medium 25.2%
10.9%
22:14
NZD REINZ Housing Price Index (APR)
Low 3661.5
3631.4
22:14
NZD REINZ Housing Price Index (MoM) (APR)
Low 0.8%
2.4%
22:45
NZD Food Prices (MoM) (APR)
Low 0.2%
-1.3%
23:50
JPY Japan Money Stock M2+CD (YoY) (APR)
Low 3.3 3.1% 3.1%
23:50
JPY Japan Money Stock M3 (YoY) (APR)
Low 2.6% 2.5% 2.5%
Mon
May 13 01:30
AUD Home Loans (MAR)
Medium 5.2% 4.0% 2.1%
01:30
AUD NAB Business Confidence (APR)
Medium -2
2
01:30
AUD Investment Lending (MAR)
Low 2.1%
1.9%
01:30
AUD NAB Business Conditions (APR)
Low -6
-7
01:30
AUD RBA Credit Card Balances (MAR)
Low A$49.7B
A$50.0B
01:30
AUD RBA Credit Card Purchases (MAR)
Low A$20.2B
A$20.2B
01:30
AUD Value of Loans (MoM) (MAR)
Low 5.8%
1.2%
05:30
CNY Fixed Assets Inv Excl. Rural YTD (YoY) (APR)
Medium 20.6% 21.0% 20.9%
05:30
CNY Industrial Production YTD (YoY) (APR)
Medium 9.4% 9.5% 9.5%
05:30
CNY Industrial Production (YoY) (APR)
Medium 9.3% 9.4% 8.9%
05:30
CNY Retail Sales YTD (YoY) (APR)
Medium 12.5% 12.6% 12.4%
05:30
CNY Retail Sales (YoY) (APR)
Medium 12.8% 12.8% 12.6%
07:15
CHF Retail Sales (Real) (YoY) (MAR)
Medium -0.9%
2.4%
12:30
USD Advance Retail Sales (APR)
High
-0.3% -0.4%
ECONOMIC CALLENDER
12:30
USD Retail Sales Less Autos (APR)
Medium
-0.2% -0.4%
12:30
USD Retail Sales "Control Group" (APR)
Low
0.3% -0.2%
12:30
USD Retail Sales Ex Auto & Gas (APR)
Low
0.3% -0.1%
13:00
EUR Euro Zone Finance Ministers Meet in Brussels
High
14:00
USD Business Inventories (MAR)
Medium
0.3% 0.1%
22:45
NZD Retail Sales Ex Inflation (QoQ) (1Q)
Medium
0.8% 2.1%
23:01
GBP RICS House Price Balance (APR)
Medium
2% -1%
23:50
JPY Domestic Corporate Goods Price Index (MoM) (APR)
Low
0.1% 0.1%
23:50
JPY Domestic Corporate Goods Price Index (YoY) (APR)
Low
-0.2% -0.5%
23:50
JPY Loans & Discounts Corp (YoY) (MAR)
Low
1.4%
Tue
May 14
CNY Actual FDI (YoY) (APR)
Medium
6.2% 5.7%
03:00
NZD Non Resident Bond Holdings (APR)
Low
68.3%
06:00
EUR German Consumer Price Index - EU Harmonised (YoY) (APR F)
High
1.1% 1.1%
06:00
EUR German Consumer Price Index (YoY) (APR F)
High
1.2% 1.2%
06:00
EUR German Consumer Price Index - EU Harmonised (MoM) (APR F)
Medium
-0.5% -0.5%
06:00
EUR German Consumer Price Index (MoM) (APR F)
Medium
-0.5% -0.5%
06:00
JPY Machine Tool Orders (YoY) (APR P)
Medium
-21.5%
06:00
EUR German Wholesale Price Index (MoM) (APR)
Low
-0.2%
06:00
EUR German Wholesale Price Index (YoY) (APR)
Low
0.3%
06:00
USD Fed's Plosser Speaks on Monetary Policy in Stockholm
Low
08:30
EUR Italian General Government Debt (MAR)
Medium
2017.6B
09:00
EUR German ZEW Survey (Economic Sentiment) (MAY)
High
40 36.3
09:00
EUR Euro-Zone Industrial Production w.d.a. (YoY) (MAR)
Medium
-2.1% -3.1%
09:00
EUR Euro-Zone ZEW Survey (Economic Sentiment) (MAY)
Medium
24.9
09:00
EUR German ZEW Survey (Current Situation) (MAY)
Medium
9.8 9.2
09:00
EUR Euro-Zone Industrial Production s.a. (MoM) (MAR)
Low
0.5% 0.4%
11:30
USD NFIB Small Business Optimism (APR)
Low
89.8 89.5
12:30
USD Import Price Index (MoM) (APR)
Low
-0.5% -0.5%
12:30
USD Import Price Index (YoY) (APR)
Low
-2.7%
13:00
CAD Teranet/National Bank HPI (MoM) (APR)
Low
0.4%
13:00
CAD Teranet/National Bank HPI (YoY) (APR)
Low
2.6%
13:00
CAD Teranet/National Bank HP Index (APR)
Low
153.31
15:00
USD New York Fed Releases Quarterly Household Debt Report
Medium
23:50
JPY Tertiary Industry Index (MoM) (MAR)
Medium
-0.7% 1.1%
Wed
May 15 01:30
AUD New Motor Vehicle Sales (MoM) (APR)
Low
-0.6%
01:30
AUD New Motor Vehicle Sales (YoY) (APR)
Low
4.5%
01:30
AUD Wage Cost Index (QoQ) (1Q)
Low
0.8% 0.8%
01:30
AUD Wage Cost Index (YoY) (1Q)
Low
3.3% 3.4%
05:00
JPY Consumer Confidence (APR)
Medium
45.5 44.8
05:30
EUR French Gross Domestic Product (YoY) (1Q P)
Medium
-0.4% -0.3%
05:30
EUR French Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) (1Q P)
Low
-0.1% -0.3%
06:00
EUR German Gross Domestic Product n.s.a. (YoY) (1Q P)
High
0.2% 0.1%
06:00
EUR German Gross Domestic Product w.d.a. (YoY) (1Q P)
High
0.2% 0.4%
06:00
EUR German Gross Domestic Product s.a. (QoQ) (1Q P)
Medium
0.3% -0.6%
07:15
CHF Producer & Import Prices (MoM) (APR)
Low
-0.2% 0.0%
07:15
CHF Producer & Import Prices (YoY) (APR)
Low
-0.3% -0.3%
08:00
EUR Italian Gross Domestic Product s.a. and w.d.a. (YoY) (1Q P)
Medium
-2.3% -2.8%
08:00
EUR Italian Gross Domestic Product s.a. and w.d.a. (QoQ) (1Q P)
Low
-0.4% -0.9%
08:30
GBP Jobless Claims Change (APR)
High
-3.0K -7.0K
08:30
GBP Average Weekly Earnings (3M/YoY) (MAR)
Medium
0.7% 0.8%
08:30
GBP Claimant Count Rate (APR)
Medium
4.6% 4.6%
08:30
GBP Employment Change (3M/3M) (MAR)
Medium
-20K -2K
08:30
GBP ILO Unemployment Rate (3M) (MAR)
Medium
7.9% 7.9%
08:30
GBP Weekly Earnings exBonus (3M/YoY) (MAR)
Low
0.8% 1.0%
09:00
EUR Euro-Zone Gross Domestic Product s.a. (YoY) (1Q A)
High
-0.9% -0.9%
09:00
CHF ZEW Survey (Expectations) (MAY)
Medium
20
09:00
EUR Euro-Zone Gross Domestic Product s.a. (QoQ) (1Q A)
Medium
-0.1% -0.6%
09:30
GBP Bank of England Inflation Report
High
11:00
USD MBA Mortgage Applications (MAY 10)
Low
7.0%
12:30
USD Producer Price Index Ex Food & Energy (YoY) (APR)
Medium
1.7% 1.7%
12:30
USD Producer Price Index (YoY) (APR)
Medium
0.8% 1.1%
12:30
CAD Manufacturing Shipments (MoM) (MAR)
Low
0.5% 2.6%
12:30
USD Empire Manufacturing (MAY)
Low
4 3.05
12:30
USD Producer Price Index Ex Food & Energy (MoM) (APR)
Low
0.1% 0.2%
12:30
USD Producer Price Index (MoM) (APR)
Low
-0.6% -0.6%
13:00
CAD Existing Home Sales (MoM) (APR)
Medium
2.40%
13:00
USD Net Long-term TIC Flows (MAR)
Medium
-$17.8B
13:00
USD Total Net TIC Flows (MAR)
Low
$53.6B
13:15
USD Industrial Production (APR)
Medium
-0.1% 0.4%
13:15
USD Manufacturing (SIC) Production (APR)
Medium
0.0% -0.1%
13:15
USD Capacity Utilization (APR)
Low
78.3% 78.5%
14:00
USD NAHB Housing Market Index (MAY)
Low
43 42
14:30
USD DOE Cushing OK Crude Inventory (MAY 10)
Low
-652K
14:30
USD DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories (MAY 10)
Low
230K
14:30
USD DOE U.S. Distillate Inventory (MAY 10)
Low
1812K
14:30
USD DOE U.S. Gasoline Inventories (MAY 10)
Low
-910K
22:30
NZD Business NZ Performance of Manufacturing Index (APR)
Medium
53.4
23:50
JPY Gross Domestic Product Annualized (1Q P)
High
2.7% 0.2%
23:50
JPY Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) (1Q P)
High
0.7% 0.0%
23:50
JPY Nominal Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) (1Q P)
High
0.5% -0.3%
23:50
JPY Foreign Buying Japan Bonds (Yen) (MAY 10)
Low
¥267.0B
23:50
JPY Foreign Buying Japan Stocks (Yen) (MAY 10)
Low
-¥26.2B
23:50
JPY Gross Domestic Product Deflator (YoY) (1Q P)
Low
-0.9% -0.7%
23:50
JPY Japan Buying Foreign Bonds (Yen) (MAY 10)
Low
¥309.9B
23:50
JPY Japan Buying Foreign Stocks (Yen) (MAY 10)
Low
¥28.0B
Thu
May 16 01:30
AUD RBA FX Transactions "Other" (APR)
Low
71M
01:30
AUD RBA Foreign Exchange Transaction (Australian dollar) (APR)
Low
577M
03:30
AUD RBA FX Transactions "Government" (APR)
Low
04:00
JPY Tokyo Condominium Sales (YoY) (APR)
Low
48.4%
04:30
JPY Industrial Production (YoY) (MAR F)
Medium
-7.3%
04:30
JPY Capacity Utilization (MoM) (MAR F)
Low
0.7%
04:30
JPY Industrial Production (MoM) (MAR F)
Low
0.2%
07:45
USD Fed's Plosser Speaks on Monetary Policy in Milan
Low
09:00
EUR Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index - Core (YoY) (APR F)
High
1.0% 1.0%
09:00
EUR Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index (YoY) (APR F)
High
1.2% 1.2%
09:00
EUR Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index (MoM) (APR)
Medium
-0.1% 1.2%
09:00
EUR Euro-Zone Trade Balance (euros) (MAR)
Low
10.4B
09:00
EUR Euro-Zone Trade Balance s.a. (euros) (MAR)
Low
12.0B 12.0B
11:45
USD Fed's Rosengren Speaks in Milan
Low
12:30
USD Consumer Price Index Ex Food & Energy (YoY) (APR)
High
1.8% 1.9%
12:30
USD Consumer Price Index (YoY) (APR)
High
1.3% 1.5%
12:30
USD Building Permits (MoM) (APR)
Medium
3.6% -3.9%
12:30
USD Consumer Price Index Ex Food & Energy (MoM) (APR)
Medium
0.2% 0.1%
12:30
USD Consumer Price Index (MoM) (APR)
Medium
-0.3% -0.2%
12:30
USD Housing Starts (MoM) (APR)
Medium
-5.4% 7.0%
12:30
USD Initial Jobless Claims (MAY 11)
Medium
330K 323K
12:30
CAD International Securities Transactions (Canadian dollar) (MAR)
Low
-6.31B
12:30
USD Building Permits (APR)
Low
940K 902K
12:30
USD Consumer Price Index Core Index s.a. (APR)
Low
232.758
12:30
USD Consumer Price Index n.s.a. (APR)
Low
232.7 232.773
12:30
USD Continuing Claims (MAY 4)
Low
3003K 3005K
12:30
USD Housing Starts (APR)
Low
980K 1036K
13:00
USD Fed's Fisher Speaks at NABE Industry Conference in Houston
Low
14:00
USD Philadelphia Fed. (MAY)
Medium
2.3 1.3
14:30
USD EIA Natural Gas Storage Change (MAY 10)
Low
88
19:05
USD Fed's Williams Speaks on Monetary Policy in Oregon
Low
22:00
NZD ANZ Job Advertisements (MoM) (APR)
Low
0.7%
22:45
NZD Producer Prices- Inputs (QoQ) (1Q)
Low
0.2% -0.3%
22:45
NZD Producer Prices- Outputs (QoQ) (1Q)
Low
0.0% -0.1%
23:50
JPY Machine Orders (YoY) (MAR)
Medium
-4.9% -11.3%
23:50
JPY Housing Loans (YoY) (1Q)
Low
3.1%
23:50
JPY Machine Orders (MoM) (MAR)
Low
3.3% 7.5%
Fri
May 17
USD Revisions: Housing Starts
Low
01:00
NZD ANZ Consumer Confidence Index (MAY)
Low
119.2
01:00
NZD ANZ Consumer Confidence (MoM) (MAY)
Low
3.8%
01:30
CNY China April Property Prices
Medium
02:00
CNY Conference Board China April Leading Economic Index
Low
06:00
EUR EU 25 New Car Registrations (APR)
Low
-10.2%
09:00
EUR Euro-Zone Construction Output s.a. (MoM) (MAR)
Low
-0.8%
09:00
EUR Euro-Zone Construction Output w.d.a. (YoY) (MAR)
Low
0.8%
12:30
CAD Bank Canada Consumer Price Index Core (YoY) (APR)
High
1.2% 1.4%
12:30
CAD Consumer Price Index (YoY) (APR)
High
0.9% 1.0%
12:30
CAD Bank Canada Consumer Price Index Core (MoM) (APR)
Medium
0.2% 0.2%
12:30
CAD Consumer Price Index (MoM) (APR)
Medium
0.2% 0.2%
12:30
CAD Consumer Price Index (APR)
Low
122.9
12:30
CAD Consumer Price Index s.a. (MoM) (APR)
Low
0.1%
12:30
CAD Core CPI s.a. (MoM) (APR)
Low
0.2%
12:30
CAD Wholesale Sales (MoM) (MAR)
Low
0.4% 0.0%
13:55
USD U. of Michigan Confidence (MAY P)
Medium
77.6 76.4
14:00
USD Leading Indicators (APR)
Medium
0.2% -0.1%
14:00
USD Revisions to Factory Orders Report
Low
17:45
USD Fed's Kocherlakota, Riksbank's Ingves Speak in Chicago
Low
Sat
May 18 15:00
USD Fed's Bernanke Delivers Commencement Speech at Bard College
Low
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