DAILY I FOREX REPORT 14

TH

MARCH 2013

WWW.EPICRESEARCH.CO +91 9752199966

WWW.EPICRESEARCH.CO +91 9752199966

Forex: EUR/USD Near Breakout, GBP/USD Risk Reversal, NZD/USD Awaits RBNZ

Forex News: Aussie Marginally Higher on Consumer Confidence Report

EUR/USD- Trading The U.S. Advance Retail Sales Report

Yen Gains as Risk Appetite Falters, Euro Eyes Italian Bond Sale

he Japanese Yen is outperforming as European stocks follow Asian bourses lower in early trade, with risk aversion driving an unwinding of carry trades funded cheaply in the perennially low-yielding currency. Not surprisingly, the high-beta Australian and New Zealand Dollars are feeling the brunt of the selloff. While no singular catalyst behind souring risk appetite has emerged, the move may simply owe to profit-taking.

TRADING TIPS

BUY EURUSD ABOVE

1.3065 tgs

1.3085/1.3105 sl 1.3035

BUY USDJPY ABOVE

96.10 tgt 96.30/96.50

SL 95.80

BUY GBPUSD ABOVE

1.4975 tgt

1.4995/1.5015 SL

1.4945

HEADLINES

HOURLY EURUSD CHART

ANALYSIS

OPEN: 1.3030

HIGH: 1.3065

LOW: 1.3009

CLOSE: 1.3019

EURUSD LOOKS UPWARD REVERSAL

TREND : BULLISH

STRATEGY: BUY ON DEEPS

MACD =>-.000(BULLISH SIGNAL)

RSI => 46(BULLISH SIGNAL)

HOURLY EURUSD CHART

HOURLY USDJPY CHART

ANALYSIS

OPEN: 95.84

HIGH: 96.10

LOW: 95.44

CLOSE: 95.83

USDJPY LOOKS UPWARD

TREND: BULLISH

STRATEGY: BUY ON DEEPS

MACD => -0.05( BULLISH SIGNAL)

RSI =>46(BULLISH SIGNAL)

HOURLY USDJPY CHART

HOURLY GBPUSD CHART

ANALYSIS

OPEN: 1.4904

HIGH: 1.4974

LOW: 1.4897

CLOSE: 1.4967

GBPUSD LOOKS UPWARD REVERSAL

TREND: BULLISH

STRATEGY: BUY ON DEEPS

MACD => .002( BULLISH SIGNAL)

RSI => 34(BULLISH SIGNAL)

HOURLY GBPUSD CHART

HOURLY EURGBP CHART

ANALYSIS

OPEN: 0.8742

HIGH: 0.8746

LOW: 0.8695

CLOSE: 0.8697

EURGBP LOOKS DOWNWARDS

TREND: BEARISH

STRATEGY: SELL ON RISE

MACD =>-.003(BEARISH SIGNAL)

RSI =>62(BEARISH SIGNAL)

www.epicresearch.co + 91 9752199966

HOURLY EURGBP CHART

HOURLY USDINDEX CHART

ANALYSIS

OPEN: 82.5550

HIGH: 82.6440

LOW: 82.3330

CLOSE: 82.5900

USDINDEX LOOKS UPWARD

TREND: BULLISH

STRATEGY: BUY ON DEEPS

MACD =>0.79(BULLISH SIGNAL)

RSI =>51(BULLISH SIGNAL)

Date Time Currency Event Importance Actual Forecast Previous Notes

Mon

Mar 11

JPY Japanese Parliament May Vote on BoJ Governor Nominations

High

00:01

GBP Lloyds Employment

Confidence (FEB)

Low -44

-45

06:00

JPY Machine Tool Orders (YoY) (FEB P)

Medium -21.5%

-26.4%

07:00

EUR German Trade Balance (euros) (JAN)

Medium 13.7B 13.9B 12.1B

07:00

EUR German Current Account (euros) (JAN)

Low 11.3B 10.5B 20.2B

07:00

EUR German Imports s.a. (MoM) (JAN)

Low 3.3% 0.7% -1.5%

07:00

EUR German Exports s.a. (MoM) (JAN)

Low 1.4% 0.5% 0.2%

07:00

EUR German Labor Costs Workday Adj (YoY) (4Q)

Low 2.9%

2.9%

07:00

EUR German Labor Costs Seas. Adj. (QoQ) (4Q)

Low 0.8%

0.2%

08:15

CHF Retail Sales

(Real) (YoY) (JAN) Medium 1.9%

4.7%

09:00

EUR Italian Gross Domestic Product s.a. and w.d.a. (QoQ) (4Q F)

Medium -0.9% -0.9% -0.9%

09:00

EUR Italian Gross

Domestic Product s.a. and w.d.a. (YoY) (4Q F)

Medium -2.8% -2.7% -2.7%

23:50

JPY Domestic Corporate Goods Price Index (MoM) (FEB)

Low

0.3% 0.4%

23:50

JPY Domestic Corporate Goods Price

Index (YoY) (FEB)

Low

-0.1% -0.2%

23:50

JPY Tertiary Industry Index (MoM) (JAN)

Medium

-0.2% 1.4%

ECONOMIC CALENDER

23:50

JPY BSI Large All Industry (QoQ) (1Q)

Medium

-5.5

23:50

JPY BSI Large Manufacturing (QoQ) (1Q)

Medium

-10.3

Tue

Mar 12 00:01

EUR Germany Second Quarter Manpower Employment Outlook (Table)

Low

00:01

GBP RICS House Price Balance (FEB)

Medium

-1% -4%

00:30

AUD NAB Business Conditions (FEB)

Low

-2

00:30

AUD NAB Business

Confidence (FEB) Medium

3

00:30

AUD RBA Credit Card Balances (JAN)

Low

$A49.9B

00:30

AUD RBA Credit Card Purchases (JAN)

Low

$A22.4B

05:00

JPY Consumer Confidence (FEB)

Medium

43.3

07:00

EUR German Wholesale Price Index (MoM) (FEB)

Low

0.3%

07:00

EUR German Wholesale Price Index

(YoY) (FEB)

Low

2.3%

07:00

EUR German Consumer Price Index (MoM) (FEB F)

Medium

0.6% 0.6%

07:00

EUR German Consumer Price Index (YoY) (FEB F)

High

1.5% 1.5%

07:00

EUR German Consumer Price Index - EU Harmonised (MoM) (FEB F)

Medium

0.8% 0.8%

07:00

EUR German Consumer Price Index - EU Harmonised (YoY)

(FEB F)

High

1.8% 1.8%

09:00

EUR Italian Consumer Price Index - EU Harmonized (YoY) (FEB F)

Low

0.1%

09:30

GBP Industrial Production (MoM)

(JAN)

Low

0.1% 1.1%

09:30

GBP Industrial Production (YoY) (JAN)

Medium

-1.1% -1.7%

09:30

GBP Manufacturing Production (MoM) (JAN)

Low

0.0% 1.6%

09:30

GBP Manufacturing Production (YoY) (JAN)

Medium

-1.0% -1.5%

09:30

GBP Visible Trade Balance (Pounds) (JAN)

Medium

-£8950 -£8897

09:30

GBP Trade Balance Non EU (Pounds)

(JAN)

Medium

-£3200 -£3201

09:30

GBP Total Trade Balance (Pounds) (JAN)

Low

-£4500 -£4239

11:30

USD NFIB Small Business Optimism (FEB)

Low

90.0 88.9

14:00

USD JOLTs Job Openings (JAN)

Low

3617

15:00

GBP NIESR Gross Domestic Product Estimate (FEB)

Medium

0.0%

18:00

USD Monthly Budget Statement (FEB)

Medium

21:45

NZD Food Prices (MoM) (FEB)

Low

1.9%

23:30

AUD Westpac Consumer Confidence (MAR)

Medium

7.7%

23:30

AUD Westpac Consumer Confidence Index (MAR)

Low

108.3

Wed Mar 13

AUD Australia Manpower Survey (2Q)

Low

7%

NZD New Zealand

Manpower Survey (2Q) Medium

15%

00:30

AUD Home Loans (JAN)

Medium

0.5% -1.5%

00:30

AUD Investment Lending (JAN)

Low

-2.4%

00:30

AUD Value of Loans (MoM) (JAN)

Low

-2.7%

06:30

EUR French Non-Farm Payrolls (QoQ) (4Q F)

Low

-0.2% -0.2%

10:00

EUR Euro-Zone Industrial Production

s.a. (MoM) (JAN)

Low

-0.1% 0.70%

10:00

EUR Euro-Zone Industrial Production w.d.a. (YoY) (JAN)

Medium

-2.0% -2.3%

11:00

USD MBA Mortgage Applications (MAR 8)

Low

14.80%

12:30

USD Import Price Index (MoM) (FEB)

Low

0.5% 0.6%

12:30

USD Import Price Index (YoY) (FEB)

Low

-0.6% -1.3%

12:30

USD Advance Retail Sales (FEB)

High

0.5% 0.1%

12:30

USD Retail Sales Less Autos (FEB)

Medium

0.5% 0.2%

12:30

USD Retail Sales Ex Auto & Gas (FEB)

Medium

0.2% 0.2%

12:30

USD Retail Sales "Control Group" (FEB)

Low

0.2% 0.1%

14:00

USD Business Inventories (JAN)

Medium

0.4% 0.1%

14:30

USD DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories (MAR 8)

Low

3833K

14:30

USD DOE Cushing OK Crude Inventory (MAR 8)

Low

257K

14:30

USD DOE U.S. Gasoline Inventories

(MAR 8)

Low

-616K

14:30

USD DOE U.S. Distillate Inventory (MAR 8)

Low

-3830K

20:00

NZD Reserve Bank of New Zealand Rate Decision (MAR 14)

High

2.50% 2.50%

23:50

JPY Japan Buying Foreign Bonds (Yen) (MAR 8)

Low

23:50

JPY Japan Buying Foreign Stocks (Yen) (MAR 8)

Low

23:50

JPY Foreign Buying

Japan Bonds (Yen) (MAR 8)

Low

¥657.8B

23:50

JPY Foreign Buying Japan Stocks (Yen) (MAR 8)

Low

¥269.6B

Thu Mar 14

00:00

AUD Consumer Inflation Expectation (MAR)

Medium

2.2%

CNY China Manpower Survey (2Q)

Low

14%

JPY Japan Manpower Survey (2Q)

Low

11

CNY Actual FDI (YoY) (FEB)

Medium

-4.8% -7.3%

00:30

AUD Employment Change (FEB)

High

10.0K 10.4K

00:30

AUD Unemployment Rate (FEB)

High

5.5% 5.4%

00:30

AUD Full Time Employment Change (FEB)

Medium

-9.8K

00:30

AUD Part Time Employment Change (FEB)

Medium

20.2K

00:30

AUD Participation Rate

(FEB) Low

65.0% 65.0%

02:00

NZD Non Resident Bond Holdings (FEB)

Low

66.7%

04:00

JPY Tokyo Condominium Sales

(YoY) (FEB)

Low

-5.4%

04:30

JPY Industrial Production (MoM) (JAN F)

Low

1.0%

04:30

JPY Industrial Production (YoY) (JAN F)

Medium

-5.1%

04:30

JPY Capacity Utilization (MoM) (JAN F)

Low

2.9%

06:00

JPY Machine Tool Orders (YoY) (FEB F)

Medium

08:30

CHF Swiss National

Bank Rate Decision (MAR 14)

High

0.00% 0.00%

10:00

EUR Euro-Zone Employment (QoQ) (4Q)

Low

-0.2%

10:00

EUR Euro-Zone Employment (YoY)

(4Q)

Low

-0.7%

12:30

CAD Capacity Utilization Rate (4Q)

Low

12:30

USD Current Account Balance (4Q)

Low

-$112.8B -$107.5B

12:30

CAD New Housing

Price Index (MoM) (JAN)

Low

0.2%

12:30

CAD New Housing Price Index (YoY) (JAN)

Low

2.3%

12:30

USD Producer Price

Index (MoM) (FEB) Medium

0.6% 0.2%

12:30

USD Producer Price Index Ex Food & Energy (MoM) (FEB)

Medium

0.1% 0.2%

12:30

USD Producer Price Index (YoY) (FEB)

High

1.7% 1.4%

12:30

USD Producer Price Index Ex Food & Energy (YoY) (FEB)

High

1.8%

12:30

USD Initial Jobless Claims (MAR 10)

Medium

340K

12:30

USD Continuing Claims (MAR 3)

Low

3094K

14:30

USD EIA Natural Gas Storage Change (MAR 8)

Low

-146

20:30

USD Fed Releases Comprehensive Capital Analysis and Review

Low

21:30

NZD Business NZ Performance of Manufacturing Index (FEB)

Medium

55.2

Fri Mar 15

EUR ECB Publishes Monthly Report

Medium

00:00

NZD ANZ Consumer Confidence Index (MAR)

Low

121

00:00

NZD ANZ Consumer Confidence (MoM) (MAR)

Low

2.3%

08:15

CHF Producer & Import Prices (MoM) (FEB)

Low

-0.1%

08:15

CHF Producer & Import Prices (YoY) (FEB)

Low

0.8%

09:30

EUR Itally General Government Debt

(JAN)

Medium

1988.4B

10:00

EUR Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index (MoM) (FEB)

Medium

0.4% -1.0%

10:00

EUR Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index (YoY) (FEB)

High

1.8% 1.8%

10:00

EUR Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index - Core (YoY) (FEB)

High

1.3% 1.3%

10:00

EUR Euro-Zone Labor Costs (YoY) (4Q)

Low

2.0%

12:30

USD Empire

Manufacturing (MAR) Low

8 10.04

12:30

USD Consumer Price Index (MoM) (FEB)

Medium

0.4% 0.0%

12:30

USD Consumer Price Index Ex Food & Energy (MoM) (FEB)

Medium

0.2% 0.3%

12:30

USD Consumer Price Index (YoY) (FEB)

High

1.8% 1.6%

12:30

USD Consumer Price Index Ex Food & Energy (YoY) (FEB)

High

2.0% 1.9%

12:30

USD Consumer Price

Index Core Index s.a. (FEB)

Medium

232.138 232.108

12:30

USD Consumer Price Index n.s.a. (FEB)

Low

230.28

13:00

USD Total Net TIC Flows (JAN)

Low

$25.2B

13:00

USD Net Long-term TIC Flows (JAN)

Medium

$64.2B

13:00

CAD Existing Home Sales (MoM) (FEB)

Low

1.3%

13:15

USD Industrial Production (FEB)

Medium

0.3% -0.1%

13:15

USD Capacity Utilization (FEB)

Low

79.3% 79.1%

13:15

USD Manufacturing (SIC) Production (FEB)

Low

0.3% -0.4%

13:55

USD U. of Michigan Confidence (MAR P)

Medium

78 77.6

www.epicresearch.co + 91 9752199966

Disclaimer

The information and views in this report, our website & all the service we provide are believed to be reliable, but we do not accept any responsibility (or liability) for errors of fact or opinion. Users have the right to choose the product/s that suits them the most.

Sincere efforts have been made to present the right investment perspective. The information contained herein is based on analysis and up on sources that we consider reliable.

This material is for personal information and based upon it & takes no responsibility

The information given herein should be treated as only factor, while making investment decision. The report does not provide individually tailor-made investment advice. Epic research recommends that investors independently evaluate particular investments and strategies, and encourages investors to seek the advice of a financial adviser. Epic research shall not be responsible for any transaction conducted based on the information given in this report, which is in violation of rules and regulations of NSE and BSE.

The share price projections shown are not necessarily indicative of future price performance. The information herein, together with all estimates and forecasts, can change without notice. Analyst or any person related to epic research might be holding positions in the stocks recommended. It is understood that anyone who is browsing through the site has done so at his free will and does not read any views expressed as a recommendation for which either the site or its owners or anyone can be held responsible for . Any surfing and reading of the information is the acceptance of this disclaimer.

All Rights Reserved.

Investment in equity & bullion market has its own risks.

We, however, do not vouch for the accuracy or the completeness thereof. we are not responsible for any loss incurred whatsoever for any financial profits or loss which may arise from the recommendations above epic research does not purport to be an invitation or an offer to buy or sell any financial instrument. Our Clients (Paid Or Unpaid), Any third party or anyone else have no rights to forward or share our calls or SMS or Report or Any Information Provided by us to/with anyone which is received directly or indirectly by them. If found so then Serious Legal Actions can be taken.