decentralized energy a local solution for global...
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Decentralized Energy a Local
Solution for Global Problems
David Sweet – Executive DirectorWorld Alliance for Decentralized Energy (WADE)
Edinburgh, USA, Canada, China, India, Thailand
Associate Partner:Funded by:
European Union
Partner:
Non-profit research, promotion and advocacy organisation started in 1997
Mission is to accelerate the worldwide deployment of high-efficiency cogeneration, on-site power and decentralized energy systems
WADE is supported by:
National DE organisations UK CHPA, USCHPA, Cogen Europe etc.
CHP/DE companies with international interests Thermax, Capstone, Siemens, Caterpillar , Solar Turbines, FuelCell
Energy, MTU, Marubeni, Primary Energy, Wärtsilä, etc
About WADEAbout WADE
Associate Partner:Funded by:
European Union
Partner:
WADE Mission
WADE Research activities
Reports, market surveys and studies
WADE Economic Model
WADE Advocacy activities
Policy advise for governments
Participation in legislative and regulatory proceedings
Cooperation with International Organisations, Institutions and
NGOs
WADE Promotion activities
WADE Conferences and events
WADE NewslettersAssociate Partner:Funded by:
European Union
Partner:
WADE Communications
Research Reports
COSPP MagazineWeekly Member Updates
Market Information Website
Monthly Newsletter
Applications of the WADE Economic Model
Australia - Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization Canada - Federal Government of Canada (Natural Resources Canada) China - UK Government (Foreign Office), for China EU - European Commission – DG-FER programme Ireland - Government of Ireland (Sustainable Energy Ireland) Sri Lanka - European Commission Germany - IZES for the Ministry of Environment UK - Greenpeace UK UK – Department of Trade and Industry
USA - Primary Energy Inc.
City of Calgary- Federal Government of Canada
Province of Ontario- Federal Government of Canada
Scotland- Greenpeace Scotland Iran – Greenpeace International G8+5 – IEA Turkey - REC
WADE would like to see model work replicated, at a municipal level, in the world’s major cities.
Associate Partner:Funded by:
European Union
Partner:
World Population Growth and Energy Demand
Sources: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA),
International Energy Outlook 2006
http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/ieo/world.html
Sources: United Nations Population Division
Wasted energy is a huge opportunity
Sources: IEA/OECD, 2008
2/3 of the fuel we use to produce power is wasted
CHP can more than double this efficiency
Energy Flows in the Global Electricity System
Associate Partner:Funded by:
European Union
Partner:
What are We Waiting For?
Associate Partner:Funded by:
European Union
Partner:
Electricity production at the point of use, irrespective of size, fuel
or technology – on-grid or off-grid:
• High efficiency cogeneration (CHP)
• On-site renewable energy
• Industrial energy recycling and On-site power
Otherwise known as:
• CCHP (Combined Cooling Heat and Power), Distributed Generation, Captive
Power, Embedded Generation, Microgeneration, CHP, Trigeneration,
Recycling Energy, etc.
What is Decentralized Energy (DE)?What is Decentralized Energy (DE)?
Associate Partner:Funded by:
European Union
Partner:
Decentralized Technologies
Computing:Internet vs. Mainframes
Telecommunications:Cell phones vs. land lines
Broadcasting:Television Eg. You TubeRadio Eg. Podcasts
Electricity:Decentralized energy technologies
Associate Partner:Funded by:
European Union
Partner:
The Move to Decentralized Technology
vs.
vs.
Associate Partner:Funded by:
European Union
Partner:
Decentralized Energy – Fossil-fuel Technologies
Microturbines
Reciprocating
Engines
Large & small
Gas Turbines
Stirling Engines
Steam Turbines
Associate Partner:Funded by:
European Union
Partner:
Decentralized Energy – Renewable Technologies
Rooftop PV
Fuel Cells
On-site wind
Municipal Waste
Biomass
WADE Outreach - IPCC
In the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 4th Report on Climate Change Mitigation there is a section on “Decentralized Energy”.
WADE work is cited in the report
Benefits cited include: Reduced need for costly transmission systems
Shorter lead times
Substantially reduced grid power losses
Deferred costs for upgrading transmission and distribution infrastructure
Improved reliability
Increased total energy recovery from 40–50% up to 70–85% with corresponding reductions in CO2 emissions of 50% or more
Source: IPCC Fourth Assessment Report, Working Group III, Chapter 4 Energy Supply
Associate Partner:Funded by:
European Union
Partner:
WADE Outreach - DTI
In the recent UK Energy White Paper there is a chapter on DE which calls for:
providing more flexible market and licensing arrangements for distributed, low carbon electricity supply to be implemented by 2008
greater clarity on the terms offered by energy suppliers to reward micro generators for the excess electricity they produce and want to export back to the grid
provision of information and advice to those individuals, communities and developers considering distributed energy solutions, and
incentives for Distributed Network Operators to ensure more efficient and speedy connection to networks
WADE work is cited in the paperSource: Energy White Paper 2007
Associate Partner:Funded by:
European Union
Partner:
DE and Climate Change - Asia Pacific Partnership
Seen as key agreement for engaging those that have not yet ratified the Kyoto protocol as well as major developing countries who have not yet made targets under their Kyoto commitments
Partnership of 7 countries1. Australia,
2. China,
3. India,
4. Japan,
5. Republic of Korea
6. United States
7. Canada
Associate Partner:Funded by:
European Union
Partner:
Asia Pacific Partnership
WADE Receives $ 1 Million China Project
WADE Economic Model – 5 Provinces
Develop detailed study for CHP and DG in China
Analysis of the local fuel resources and supply and an
estimate of potential energy and CO2 savings
Develop recommendations and action plans to cultivate high
level provincial champions that will take ownership of and
help implement the provincial CHP strategy
Develop a “Handbook of best practices” for successful
CHP/DG development.
5 workshops between U.S. and Chinese companies and
Site visit by key Chinese provincial stakeholders and suppliers
to the U.S.
Associate Partner:Funded by:
European Union
Partner:
18
The International CHP/DHC Collaborative
Who: The IEA, working with DHC and CHP leaders worldwide
What: Raise the profile of CHP/DHC among policy makers, industry
When: Launched March 2007 with a 2-year Work Plan
Activities:
Roundtables and seminars
IEA publications with Improved global DHC/CHP data and prospects, by country/sector Benefits globally and on a region/country basis Documentation of successful DHC/CHP policies
Outreach strategy targeted at policy makers key growth regions (Asia, Middle East, E Europe/Russia)
Associate Partner:Funded by:
European Union
Partner:
19
Gleneagles 2005:
“The IEA will advise on alternative energy scenarios and strategies
aimed at a clean, clever and competitive energy future.”
Heiligendamm 2007:
Paragraph 67: “We invite the IEA to create a Sustainable Buildings Network…[to] develop practical instruments for assessing and advising on the use of renewable energies, especially for cooling and heating…”
Paragraph 70: “Making power generation more efficient, climate friendly and sustainable is …crucial…we aim to increase average power plant efficiencies in each of our countries...[we will] adopt instruments and measures to significantly increase the share of combined heat and power (CHP) in the generation of electricity.”
G8 Communiqués
Associate Partner:Funded by:
European Union
Partner:
Why is DE better?
Benefits of DE compared to centralised generation
DE is more efficient
DE is cheaper
DE is cleaner
DE is more reliable
DE is more secure
DE provides access to electricity in remote areas
DE can be sited quicker and with less opposition
Associate Partner:Funded by:
European Union
Partner:
DE Benefits – WADE Economic Model – Selected Past Results
Estimated Total Savings (%) by Increasing Proportion of DE in New Power Sector Investments
(Source: WADE various)
Note: Proportion of total investment that is DE varies from region to region and from scenario to scenario-( ie in some cases savings are
resultant from all new capacity being DE compared to baseline and in other cases only 25% of new capacity is DE compared to baseline)
Estimated Total Savings (%) by Increasing Proportion of DE in New Power Sector Investments
-100
-75
-50
-25
0
25
50
75
100
World China Sri Lanka Iran EU Ireland UK Scotland Brazil USA Calgary Ontario
Capital Costs Delivered Energy Costs
CO2 Emissions Fossil Fuel Consumption
Associate Partner:Funded by:
European Union
Partner:
21© Wärtsilä
Azerbaijan
5 GW
installed
+
5 * 90 MW
distributed
each
consisting
of
10 * 9 MW
units
They ordered another 250 MW
Associate Partner:Funded by:
European Union
Partner:
Average Power Plant Efficiency (%) Over Time (US Plants)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Average Pow er Plant Eff iciency (no heat recovery)
Estimated Average Pow er Plant Eff iciency w ith Market Competition
Best Electric Only Pow er Plant Eff iciency
Combined Heat and Pow er Plant Eff iciency
Average Power Plant Efficiency (%) Over Time
Associate Partner:Funded by:
European Union
Partner:
1957 vs 2007
Associate Partner:Funded by:
European Union
Partner:
Coal
2%
Gas
19%
Electricity
60%Oil
19%
World All-Energy Investment, 2001 - 2030
Source: IEA World Energy Outlook, 2006
46%
54%
Generation
Capacity
Wires
Network investment needs
exceed generation needs
by 17%
$6.1 trillion of investment
Associate Partner:Funded by:
European Union
Partner:
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
Central DE Central DE Central DE Central DE Central DE Central DE Central DE
Reference case 3% (low) demand
growth
high coal capacity high gas capacity T&D cost +1/3 High nuclear and
renewables capacity
8% (high) demand
growth
Scenario
Bil
lio
n U
S$
fo
r N
ew
Ca
pa
cit
y
in 2
02
1
Investment in new Central Generation Investment in new DE Investment in T&D
Example – Sensitivity Analysis for China Model Run
Associate Partner:Funded by:
European Union
Partner:
China – retail costs for new capacity to 2021
Retail Costs per KWh for Incremental 2021 Load
0
2
4
6
8
10
100% CG / 0% DE 75% / 25% 50% / 50% 25% / 75% 0% CG / 100% DE
% DE of Total Generation
US
$ C
en
ts / K
Wh
O&M of New Capacity FuelCapital Amortization + Profit On New Capacity T&D Amortization on New T&D
Associate Partner:Funded by:
European Union
Partner:
China – capital cost for new capacity to 2021
Capital Cost to Supply Incremental Electricity Load to 2021
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
100% CG / 0% DE 75% / 25% 50% / 50% 25% / 75% 0% CG / 100% DE
% DE of Total Generation
Bill
ion
US
$ f
or
Ne
w C
ap
acity
Inv. In New CG Inv. in new DE Inv. In T&D
Associate Partner:Funded by:
European Union
Partner:
China – CO2 emissions from new capacity to 2021Added Annual CO2 Emissions for Incremental Year 20 Load
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
100% CG / 0%
DE
75% / 25% 50% / 50% 25% / 75% 0% CG / 100%
DE% DE of Total Generation
Mill
ion
Me
tric
Ton
ne
s /
Ye
ar
CO2 emitted for added CG CO2 emitted for added DE
Associate Partner:Funded by:
European Union
Partner:
China – fossil fuel use for new capacity to 2021
Added Annual Fossil Fuel Use for Incremental year 20 Load
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
100% CG / 0%
DE
75% / 25% 50% / 50% 25% / 75% 0% CG / 100%
DE% DE of Total Generation
Exa
jou
les
(EJ)
of
Fossi
l F
ue
l /
Ye
ar
Total "New" CG Fuel Use Total "New" DE Fuel Use
Associate Partner:Funded by:
European Union
Partner:
CHP share national power generation
Sources:IEA, CHP: Evaluating Benefits of Greater Global Investment, 2008
Associate Partner:Funded by:
European Union
Partner:
Don’t Worry – Be Happy
Associate Partner:Funded by:
European Union
Partner:
Global DE Market Growth
36
26
22
1311
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
Perc
en
tag
e m
arg
inal g
en
era
tio
n f
rom
DE
Source: WADE World Survey of Decentralized Energy, , 2007
Associate Partner:Funded by:
European Union
Partner:
What is Possible for a Country
Source: Danish Energy Center
Associate Partner:Funded by:
European Union
Partner:
35
Disruptive Technologies are Ready
Volvo:
ReCharge Concept Plugin Hybrid Vehicle
Whispertech:
WhispergenStirling Engine micro CHP unit
Associate Partner:Funded by:
European Union
Partner:
36
Conclusions:
DE is a win-win form of power generation;
DE has great potential to reduce CO2 emissions and reduce overall costs of supplying power;
DE can provide energy access for those in rural areas and developing countries;
Barriers tend to be policy barriers;
Organizations like WADE can help breakdown barriers through advocacy and education.
Associate Partner:Funded by:
European Union
Partner:
37
Local Power is a Global Solution!
www. localpower.org
Thank you!
Associate Partner:Funded by:
European Union
Partner: