Deirdre KannBrian GuyerAnnette MokryNational Weather Service Albuquerque

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Since 2008, experimental satellite products from NASAs Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center have been evaluated by staff at the NWS Albuquerque. The intent of the NASA SPoRT project is to transition unique observations and research capabilities to the operational weather community in order to improve short-term forecasts on a regional scale. For each office participating in the SPoRT evaluations, a set of products for distribution was compiled based on local forecast challenges. Products used most often are listed in the table to the right. The operational use of NASA SPoRT products at the Albuquerque National Weather Service office has enhanced decision making processes by supplementing our data void areas and enhancing our current satellite analysis techniques. Starting in January 2008, experimental satellite products from NASA SPoRT were made available to WFO ABQ in support of SPoRT mission to transition research capabilities to operations to improve short-term forecasts

The suite of SPoRT products was based on local forecast challenges

*Forecasting Challenges in New Mexico

How to Transition Products

Initial Products Evaluated

Hybrid GOES / MODISUseInfraredProving Ground3.9Proving GroundWater VaporProving GroundVisibleProving Ground11-3.9Proving GroundLocal WRF ModelingUseSPoRT/MODIS GVFBetter land surface initialization

How to Advertise Products Products not routinely available can be evaluated at exercises such as NOAAs Hazardous Testbed. Forecasters who participate gain experience with new technologies and can also share the new advances with their local office.

SPoRT Support NASA SPoRT Blog

Training Modules

*Products Evaluated and Successes: LCB and CFP9 September 2011 Low clouds and fog following back door front into Northeast New Mexico

CIRA Blended TPW and PON TPW

Gap Winds*1200 ft decreaseTijeras Canyon: East of the Albuquerque Metro area

MODIS 1km False Color Composite*Note the snow free areas associated with downslope/gap winds

How can the products enhance the skill of forecasts?January 2010 Snow cover resulting in a sharp gradient in max T temperatures that was incorporated in forecast grid

GOES Hybrid * June 1, 2011 moisture increases NM eastern plains with a dry line First warning of the day issued at 2001Z

Operational Enhancements during the Fire Events of June/July 2011* The Wallow Fire started in SE Arizona on May 29, 2011 On the evening of June 2, a huge smoke plume driven by strong SW winds reached central and northern New Mexico Visibilities dropped to 1-2 miles in Albuquerque on numerous occasions Air quality was poor over large areas of the state

*MODIS Color Composite for use in GraphicastSome residents doubted that the smoke originated in Arizona.MODIS imagery was effectively used in graphicasts, accurately detailing the extent of the smoke plumes.

MODIS-GOES Hybrid 3.9 4kmMODIS-GOES Hybrid 3.9 1km3.9m Comparison on Day 5 of the Las Conchas Fire*One month later, NM has its own record-breaking wildfire

Burn Scars and Flash Flooding* The Las Conchas Fire burned over 150,000 acres The resulting burn scar supports a greatly enhanced flash flood threat Over areas of intense burning, runoff increases from the normal 2% to 75% Ash and debris combined with flows 100x normal result in unprecedented flash floods

August 22, 2011:GOES Hybrid IR and 0.5 Reflectivity*1945Z 2002Z

*August 22, 2011:Historic Flooding Downstream of Burn Scar

Products Evaluated And Successes: GOES Hybrid 15 April 2011 dry north winds and unstable air result in dust plumes in West Texas, visible on 1 km color composite At 1732Z, GOES image depicts the hot spots and dust AT 1745Z, GOES-R ABQ proxy shows sharper edges on dust plumes, clearer hot spots, and a clearer CO cloud field.

Blog Post Prompts Information on New Product: MODIS RGB Dust

GOES/MODIS Hybrid 11-3.9:Dense Fog 02/18/2012Low Cloud Base 0730UTCLow Cloud Base 0830UTCLow Cloud Base 0930UTCHybrid 0815UTCHybrid 0830UTCHybrid 0845UTC

Translation to GFEGraphicast and Short Term Forecast

SPoRT/MODIS GVF in Local WRF*

SPoRT / WFO ABQ Local Survey*

SPoRT / WFO ABQ Local Survey*

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Since 2008, experimental satellite products from NASAs Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center have been evaluated by staff at the NWS Albuquerque. The intent of the NASA SPoRT project is to transition unique observations and research capabilities to the operational weather community in order to improve short-term forecasts on a regional scale. For each office participating in the SPoRT evaluations, a set of products for distribution was compiled based on local forecast challenges. Products used most often are listed in the table to the right. The operational use of NASA SPoRT products at the Albuquerque National Weather Service office has enhanced decision making processes by supplementing our data void areas and enhancing our current satellite analysis techniques. Have improved the decision making process by supplementing data void areas and enhancing our current satellite analysis techniques Provide an excellent platform for GOES-R training, however the latency of the products limits operational use Enhance our decision support products and general customer products

Special thanks to Brian Guyer, SPoRT Focal Point and Annette Mokry, AFP, at our office.*SPoRT - Short-term Prediction, Research and Transition program

First we will address our forecast challenges then discuss how to successful assist in transitioning research capabilities into operations that improve short-term prediction.*Our CWA (bold yellow line) is about ~90,000 sq mi.

The complex topography of NM provides many challenges for fog/low cloud forecasting. Range is from 3k to 10k+. East of the central mountains we are primarily concerned with upslope flow and advective fog and low cloud processes. West of the central mountains we mainly experience radiational fog development within complex valley/mountain regions.

The terrain can also accelerate the runoff of water, resulting in flash floods.

Snow accumulations vary greatly, and not just with terrain.(i.e. relate terrain to all three topics to be covered)

*Coherent support team, including motivation from the SOO, a dedicated SPoRT focal point, and an AWIPS focal point willing to adapt changes to new products.

Local staff must see how SPoRT products can improve operational forecasting in the nowcast time frame.

Support from SPoRT (which has been great)*A few of these products were recently dropped through feedback between SPoRT and the WFO. Hybrid GOES/MODIS imagery were added prior to the intensive observing assessment April-May 2011. Recently the 11-3.9micron hybrid added as well as GVF surface initializations for the local WRF model.*Besides the WFO environment, SPoRT has advertised products through various means. Brian participated in the HWT spring experiment in May 2011. SPoRT WRF modeling, convective initiation products and GOES proving ground activities at the HWT enhanced his exposure to new technologies which was able to be shared with other forecasters. *SPoRT blog another way to increase exposure to forecast staff and advertise products. Training modules have been found to be very helpful to forecasters and we will see in some brief results from our forecaster survey here at ABQ.*Those not familiar with New Mexico often assume that fog or low clouds are not a problem due to our location in the desert southwest. However, both fog and low clouds are a relatively common problem across portions of the state. This has been discussed more completely in previous talks.

Note from the observations how well the red areas in the low cloud product capture the one-quarter mile visibilities at KRTN, KLVS, KSAF, and KOEO. The presence of fog detection on the fog product combined with red areas on the low cloud product increase confidence on dense fog. Note the ASOS to the east of K0E0 has no fog reported and indeed fog and low clouds are not detected on the GOES imagery. This imagery combined with other satellite products increases forecaster situational awareness of hazardous aviation weather. Also it is important to note that the enhanced accuracy of the experimental satellite product further increases forecaster confidence that the products are worth utilizing.

*Matching of observations with LCB and CFP products showing areas with and without fog/low clouds increase forecaster confidence on the accuracy and ability of the product to perform well. Looping of the images is key to the anticipation of fog events.*SPS from the 21st

...STORMY WEATHER EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...

THE RECENT STRETCH OF DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER WILL BE COMING TO AN ABRUPT END ON WEDNESDAY. A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST EARLY WEDNESDAY. WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EARLY WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE WEST AND EXPAND INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN SECTIONS THROUGH THE DAY. ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM LEADING TO THE THREAT FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS. RAINFALL RATES BETWEEN ONE AND TWO INCHES PER HOUR COULD ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS WHICH MAY INCREASE THE THREAT FOR LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. *Gaps in our central mountain chain and easterly flow during back door fronts into the eastern plains combine to produce local areas of enhanced east winds gust can reach 40 to 50 mph. We have an edit area in GFE to account for the area of gap winds. In many of the gaps or canyons, the terrain can decrease several hundred feet, producing areas of local katabatic flow. For those of you who were here in January 2001 for the AMS Annual Meeting, you may remember controversy with a snow forecast. Note that for this event, widespread snow was observed in New Mexico, but not a flake was noted in Albuquerque. Note a similar snow void area south of KSRR.*Gap winds lead to snow free areas. Were hoping that the use of the False Color Composite with help us with both snow and gap wind forecasts. Use of the false color shows in great detail snow shadows during canyon wind events.*Case Summary: MODIS 1km resolution false color (below left) shows areas of snow cover (red) across the higher terrain of central and western New Mexico and the northeast plains at 2049Z. The maximum temperature observation grid (center) supports the presence of snow cover as indicated by readings nearly 30 degrees cooler than locations without snow cover(Upper 30s to Mid 60s). The MODIS false color product allows the forecaster to anticipate cooler readings over subsequent periods, and can thus copy and paste the observation grid into a forecast grid (right) and adjust for temperature trends in many cases. Do not have verification for this period.

*The increased resolution show two areas of strong convection, but only one warning.

Delay in the GOES hybrid product does not permit use in real time but does provide examples of the usefulness of the GOES-R resolution, especially in areas of poor radar coverage.*By June 2, our attention abruptly changed from severe weather to fire weather and particularly from smoke due to the Wallow Fire in AZ. At first we created graphicasts showing the smoke plumes from two large fires burning west of the area.*MODIS color composite imagery further supplemented the decision support framework by allowing us to incoroporate these images into graphicasts, special emergency management briefings, and fire weather support calls.*The 3.9micron imagery shows the detail available on the various flanks of the fire. One can even see where fire fighters worked very hard to contain the fire around the Pajarito Ski area west of Los Alamos. Significant burning over sensitive areas in steep watersheds allowed for anticpated flash flood threat the following several weeks.*Once the fire is contained, attention changes to the burn scar and the effects of flash flooding.*Increased resolution shows colder cloud tops and more accurate placement. These thunderstorms would not normally be flash flood producers, but over a burn scar the downstream effect is huge. Note the combination of radar reflectivity and GOES hybrid IR shows much better placement and strength of individual cells over the burn scar at 2002Z. Other areas of intense convection are noted surrounding the fire.*Dixon Apple Farm experiences extreme damage for the second day in a row less rain, more flooding 12 to 15 feet deep and 100 ft wide in Cochiti Canyon.*Very strong dry north winds developed over West Texas on Friday April 15, 2011 as an intense upper level low pressure system ejected east across the Great Plains. A significant dust plume was captured exceptionally well on the 1923 UTC 1km MODIS color composite imagery below. Surface observations overlaid on the imagery show wind gusts in excess of 50 knots across a large portion of the West Texas panhandle. The NAM12 850-500mb lapse rates are also overlaid on the imagery. Note the dust plume coincides remarkably well with the steepest lapse rates from the NAM, the greatest surface dewpoint depressions, and the strongest winds.

*An example of a MODIS RGB-Dust product zoomed into the Oklahoma panhandle and West Texas areas, comparable to the previous post. The image shows the dust plume locations in shades of pink. Note that wildfire smoke is still evident, but is not as prominent as in the previous true color example.

*The traditional use of the LCB product is further enhanced by the new hybrid 11-3.9micron, which shows in even better detail the representation of fog within the Rio Grande Valley. Observations before and after 0815UTC show with much better detail the location of fog and the impact along portions of the I25 corridor south of ABQ and over lower terrain areas to the east.*John Case sent information on new SPoRT GVF for local WRF to enhance our surface initialization since LIS not available. Significant differences between climo and SPoRT/MODIS GVF. Opportunities for local studies during convective season as data archive can be run back to June 1, 2010. Significant differences in monsoon convection could be noted with this new data. Turns out LIS data will be available soon for the ABQ domain to further enhance our local modeling efforts.*We were curious about distribution of blog post per category of experimental products. Surprisingly the CIRA products were posted the least but this is one of our most utilized products. The MODIS was the most posted but is one of our least operational products. Perhaps as products are transitioned they are more accepted and the MODIS continues to show promising results and thus peaks interest to post more?*