Wealth Accounting
Macroeconomic
Indicators
Gianluca Mele & Keith Jefferis
April 2015
Application in
Mauritania
-$5,000 $0 $5,000 $10,000 $15,000 $20,000
Congo DR
Liberia
Zimbabwe
Mozambique
Guinea
Ghana
Zambia
Kenya
Nigeria
Mauritania
Angola
Cote D'Ivoire
US$, 2005 prices, Wealth per capita
Intangible Capital Net Foreign Assets Produced Capital Natural Capital
Mauritania • Large, sparsely populated desert country in North
Africa
• More than 50% of natural capital is represented by renewable resources.
• Potential to significantly improve the fishery and livestock sectors
• Generous endowment of iron, gold and gas. • GDP per capita
approx $1200
Six sectors taken into account: Iron ore Gold Fishery Natural Gas Crude Petroleum Pasture Land
Energy, Minerals,
Oil and Gas
Pasture Land
Eco-Systems
Fisheries
Non
Renew
able R
enewable
Renew
able
Protected areas
Crop Land
Non-Timber Forest
Resources
Timber resources
Renew
able
Fishery 59 bln
Gold
Iron Fisheries are renewable resource. Depletion is therefore balanced to some extent by natural growth / renewal. Extraction has to therefore be divided into the “sustainable” portion and the “depletion” portion. • Sustainable exploitation of fish stocks -‐ renewable • Depletion: This part of wealth has been used. It’s “gone”.
That’s what needs to be BALANCED on other items (infrastructures, education, etc.)
Net present value for the considered period: USD 11 billion, which equals roughly 2,800 USD per capita. Basing on the current structure of exploitation and on the other current assumptions, the depletion in the sector of Fishery in 2013 equals approximately USD 450 mln.
Fishery USD 11 bln
Fishery 59 bln
Fisheries USD 11 bln
Production is estimated to grow from 11 million tons (present) to 25 million tons (2020) and to 35 million tons (2025). Rent calculations take into account rising future production Net present value for the considered period: USD 6.5 billion -‐ which equals roughly 1,800 USD per capita Depletion in 2014 – approx USD 250 million
-‐100
0
100
200
300
400
500
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
20
21
2022
2023
2024
20
25
2026
20
27
2028
20
29
2030
20
31
2032
2033
2034
20
35
2036
20
37
USD
mln
Annual Rent Iron -‐ trend
Fishery
Iron 6.5 bln
Iron World spot Price (average) is assumed equal to 1500 $/ounce (real) in the short term, and then equal to 1200 $/ounce (real) in the longer term, starting from 2020 Net present value for the considered period: USD 1.1 billion, which equals roughly 300 USD per capita Depletion in 2013 = USD 41 million
-‐200
-‐150
-‐100
-‐50
0
50
100
150
200
250
USD
mln
NPV Gold – Annual trend Price shocks based scenarios
NPV (2020: price 1500 $/ounce)
NPV (2020: price 1400 $/ounce)
NPV (2020: price 1300 $/ounce)
NPV (2020: price 1200 $/ounce)
Fishery
Iron
Gold 1.1 bln
Gas 1.6 bln
Fishery
Gold
Iron
Net present value for the considered period: USD 1.6 billion, which equals roughly 496 USD per capita Production is assumed to start in 2017 and last for 20 years Depletion during the first year of operations = USD 67 mln
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90
2017
2018
2019
2020
20
21
2022
2023
2024
20
25
2026
20
27
2028
20
29
2030
20
31
2032
2033
2034
20
35
2036
USD
mln
NPV Gas-‐ Annual trend
Fishery
Iron
Gold
Petroleum 3.1
Gas
Fishery
Gold
Iron
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2031 2033 2035 2037
NPV Oil -‐ Annual trend
Net present value for the considered period: USD 3.1 billion, which equals roughly 933 USD per capita Depletion in 2013 = USD120 million
Pasture 3.3 bln
Petroleum
Gas
Fishery
Gold
Iron
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
20
21
2022
2023
2024
20
25
2026
20
27
2028
20
29
2030
20
31
2032
2033
2034
20
35
2036
20
37
2038
NPV Pasture land -‐ Annual trend
Net present value for the considered period: USD 3 billion, which equals roughly 900 USD per capita Depletion in 2013 = USD 130 million
Total natural capital wealth is estimated between 25 and 30 billion US$, which is equivalent to roughly 8,000 US$ per capita)
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Selected categories within natural wealth
Pasture land
Fishing
Oil/Petroleum
Natural Gas
Gold
Iron
STOCK
Produced Capital 12%
Natural capital 36%
Intangible capital 52%
New Calculations (per capita wealth, 2013 US$)
-‐20.0%
-‐15.0%
-‐10.0%
-‐5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013
Adjusted Net Savings/GNI Gross Savings/GNI
