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  • Weal th Ac

    count ing

    Macr oecon

    omic

    Indic ators

    Gianluca Mele & Keith Jefferis

    April 2015

    Appli cation

    in

    Maur itania

  • -$5,000 $0 $5,000 $10,000 $15,000 $20,000

    Congo DR

    Liberia

    Zimbabwe

    Mozambique

    Guinea

    Ghana

    Zambia

    Kenya

    Nigeria

    Mauritania

    Angola

    Cote D'Ivoire

    US$, 2005 prices, Wealth per capita

    Intangible Capital Net Foreign Assets Produced Capital Natural Capital

  • Mauritania   •  Large,  sparsely  populated  desert  country  in  North  

    Africa    

    •  More  than  50%  of  natural  capital  is                represented  by  renewable  resources.  

    •  Potential  to                significantly                improve  the  fishery                and  livestock  sectors  

    •  Generous                endowment  of  iron,                gold  and  gas.     •  GDP  per  capita    

    approx  $1200  

  • Six  sectors  taken  into  account:   Iron  ore   Gold   Fishery   Natural  Gas   Crude  Petroleum   Pasture  Land  

    Energy, Minerals,

    Oil and Gas

    Pasture Land

    Eco- Systems

    Fisheries

    N on

    R enew

    able R

    enew able

    R enew

    able

    Protected areas

    Crop Land

    Non-Timber Forest

    Resources

    Timber resources

    R enew

    able

  • Fishery   59  bln  

    Gold  

    Iron   Fisheries  are  renewable  resource.  Depletion  is  therefore   balanced  to  some  extent  by  natural  growth  /  renewal.   Extraction  has  to  therefore  be  divided  into  the  “sustainable”   portion  and  the  “depletion”  portion.   •  Sustainable  exploitation  of  fish  stocks  -­‐  renewable   •  Depletion:  This  part  of  wealth  has  been  used.  It’s  “gone”.  

    That’s  what  needs  to  be  BALANCED  on  other  items   (infrastructures,  education,  etc.)  

      Net  present  value  for  the  considered  period:      USD  11  billion,   which  equals  roughly  2,800  USD  per  capita.     Basing  on  the  current  structure  of  exploitation    and  on  the   other  current  assumptions,  the  depletion  in  the  sector  of   Fishery  in  2013  equals    approximately  USD  450  mln.    

    Fishery   USD  11  bln  

  • Fishery   59  bln  

    Fisheries   USD  11  bln  

  • Production  is  estimated  to  grow  from  11  million  tons   (present)  to  25  million  tons  (2020)  and  to  35  million  tons   (2025).  Rent  calculations  take  into  account  rising  future   production       Net  present  value  for  the  considered  period:      USD  6.5   billion  -­‐  which  equals  roughly  1,800  USD  per  capita       Depletion  in  2014  –  approx  USD  250  million    

    -­‐100  

    0  

    100  

    200  

    300  

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    500  

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    37  

    U SD

     m ln  

    Annual  Rent  Iron  -­‐  trend  

    Fishery  

    Iron   6.5  bln  

  • Iron   World  spot  Price  (average)  is  assumed  equal  to  1500  $/ounce   (real)  in  the  short  term,  and  then  equal  to  1200  $/ounce  (real)  in   the  longer  term,  starting  from  2020     Net  present  value  for  the  considered  period:      USD  1.1  billion,   which  equals  roughly  300  USD  per  capita         Depletion  in  2013  =  USD  41  million    

    -­‐200  

    -­‐150  

    -­‐100  

    -­‐50  

    0  

    50  

    100  

    150  

    200  

    250  

    U SD

     m ln  

    NPV  Gold  –  Annual  trend   Price  shocks  based  scenarios  

    NPV  (2020:  price  1500  $/ ounce)  

    NPV  (2020:  price  1400  $/ ounce)  

    NPV  (2020:  price  1300  $/ ounce)  

    NPV  (2020:  price  1200  $/ ounce)  

    Fishery  

    Iron  

    Gold   1.1  bln  

  • Gas   1.6  bln  

    Fishery  

    Gold  

    Iron  

    Net  present  value  for  the  considered  period:      USD  1.6  billion,   which  equals  roughly  496  USD  per  capita         Production  is  assumed  to  start  in  2017  and  last  for  20  years     Depletion  during  the  first  year  of  operations  =  USD  67  mln        

    0   10   20   30   40   50   60   70   80   90  

    20 17  

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      20

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    20 36

     

    U SD

     m ln  

    NPV  Gas-­‐  Annual  trend  

    Fishery  

    Iron  

    Gold  

  • Petroleum   3.1  

    Gas  

    Fishery  

    Gold  

    Iron  

    0  

    20  

    40  

    60  

    80  

    100  

    120  

    140  

    160  

    2013   2015   2017   2019   2021   2023   2025  2027   2029   2031   2033   2035  2037  

    NPV  Oil  -­‐  Annual  trend  

    Net  present  value  for  the  considered  period:      USD  3.1  billion,   which  equals  roughly  933  USD  per  capita         Depletion  in  2013  =  USD120  million  

  • Pasture   3.3  bln  

    Petroleum  

    Gas  

    Fishery  

    Gold  

    Iron  

    0  

    20  

    40  

    60  

    80  

    100  

    120  

    140  

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      20

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    20 38

     

    NPV  Pasture  land  -­‐  Annual  trend  

    Net  present  value  for  the  considered  period:      USD  3  billion,   which  equals  roughly  900  USD  per  capita         Depletion  in  2013  =  USD  130  million  

  • Total  natural   capital  wealth   is  estimated   between  25   and  30  billion   US$,  which  is   equivalent  to   roughly  8,000   US$  per   capita)    

    0%  

    10%  

    20%  

    30%  

    40%  

    50%  

    60%  

    70%  

    80%  

    90%  

    100%  

    Selected  categories  within  natural  wealth  

    Pasture  land  

    Fishing  

    Oil/Petroleum  

    Natural  Gas  

    Gold  

    Iron  

  • STOCK  

    Produced   Capital   12%  

    Natural