economic impact of ddg’s on u.s. grain, oilseed and livestock markets dermot hayes center for...
TRANSCRIPT
Economic Impact of DDG’s on U.S. Grain, Oilseed and
Livestock markets
Dermot HayesCenter for Agricultural and Rural Development
Iowa State University
Presented at the NCPA’s 112th AnnualConvention—May 2-6,
2008 at the Hilton SandestinBeach Golf Resort
& Spa.
Overview
Existing biofuels industry The economics of biofuels Impact on grain and livestock prices New Energy Act Scenarios Impact on Cotton Seed Product Markets DDGS quality and quality concerns
Ethanol Explosion
Source: Renewable Fuels Association
Biodiesel Growth
Source: National Biodiesel Board
Current ethanol capacity: 147 plants, 8.6 billion gallons/year
Total capacity under construction and expansion: 5.1 billion gallons/year
55 new ethanol plants and 6 expansion projects underway
Source: Renewable Fuels Association
U.S. Ethanol Industry
2.2 billion bushels of corn were used in producing fuel ethanol in 2006/2007 marketing year.
3.1 billion bushels of corn are expected to be used in producing fuel ethanol for 2007/2008 marketing year.
Existing & Planned U.S. Corn Processing Plants
Blue = OperatingRed = constructionGreen = plannedPink = Expansion of Existing plants
Current biodiesel capacity: 171 plants, 2.24 billion gallons/year
Total capacity under construction and expansion: 1.23 billion gallons/year
60 new plants underway
Source: National Biodiesel Board
U.S. Biodiesel Industry
2.8 billion pounds of soybean oil was used in producing biodiesel in 2006/2007 marketing year.
3.8 billion pounds of soybean oil are expected to be used in producing biodiesel for 2007/2008 marketing year.
Source: CARD, ISU
Source: CARD, ISU
Historical Corn Utilization
Economics of biofuels
Would you invest in a new plant? Almost half the capital costs are covered by
tax credits and other incentives, assume that this rewards you for risk
This thought experiment helps drive our understanding of the ethanol market because it allows us to calculate the corn price that will stop you from investing
Long run ethanol investment decision Assume that ethanol will see for 0.67
times gas, plus the credit Calculate ethanol revenue per bushel Subtract all costs Add a DDG credit based on corn prices Calculate the break even corn price Stop building when corn hits this price
Calculating Break-Even Corn Price
Oil Price $/BBL 55 60 65 70 75 80 85
Gas Price $/Gal 2.07 2.258 2.446 2.635 2.823 3.011 3.199
Ethanol Price $/Gal 1.897 2.023 2.149 2.275 2.401 2.527 2.653
Ethanol Revenue $/Bu 5.311 5.664 6.017 6.37 6.723 7.076 7.429
Operating Cost $/Bu 1.56 1.56 1.56 1.56 1.56 1.56 1.56
Fixed Cost $/Bu 0.72 0.72 0.72 0.72 0.72 0.72 0.72
DDG Credit $/Bu 0.728 0.812 0.897 0.982 1.066 1.151 1.236
Total Corn Credit $/Bu 3.759 4.197 4.634 5.072 5.51 5.948 6.385
Historical Ethanol Margins
Projected Ethanol Margins
Impact on corn and other crop prices If corn prices are ever significantly lower than
the breakeven price then we will build more ethanol plants
This means that if we know crude oil prices we can predict corn prices
If corn prices are high then the prices of other crops plus hay will have to rise by a similar percentage amount
So long as speculators believe this logic crop prices will move with crude prices
Energy Act Signed in December 2007 Floor of 15 billion gallons of corn ethanol, gradual ramp
up to 2015 Gradual ramp up of cellulosic ethanol to 16 billion gallons
by 2022 Biodiesel to grow to 1 billion gallons by 2013 The Act mandates but does not provide details on how to
achieve its targets Act will penalize plants that do not meet carbon
requirements, this suggests more wet DDG’s Huge question is unanswered…will the $0.51 credit for
corn ethanol stay around after 15 billion gallons?
Renewable Fuels Standard
Source: Renewable Fuels Association
Motivation – CBOT December 09 Weekly Corn Contract
General Description of the Models
Broad modeling system of world agricultural economy Behavioral supply and demand equations for production,
consumption, ending stocks and net trade Domestic prices linked to world price through price
transmission equations Linkages between all agricultural commodity markets and
energy markets
Two Views of the World
Using data derived from:
FAPRI 2008 Baseline
CARD 2008 Preliminary Baseline
Same modeling structure, different underlying assumptions
Use FAPRI if you think the ethanol industry will stop at the mandated amount, use CARD if you think it has the political support to grow further
Crude Oil Price
Corn-based Ethanol Production
Cellulose-based Ethanol Production
Biodiesel Production
Corn Acreage
Corn Farm Price
Soybean Acreage
Soybean Farm Price
Cotton Acreage
Cotton Farm Price
Livestock MarketNo Credit $0.34 Credit Percentage Change
Beef Retail Price
(US$/pound)
4.52 4.71 4.2%
Pork Retail Price
(US$/pound)
3.30 3.44 4.2%
Broiler Retail Price
(US¢/pound)
196.07 205.32 4.7%
Turkey Retail Price
(US¢/pound)
126.28 136.96 8.5%
Egg Retail Price
(US¢/dozen)
162.98 177.07 8.6%
Milk Retail Price
(US$/cwt)
14.65 15.44 5.4%
Why does corn ethanol dominate?
Table 7. Assumptions to obtain the amount of biofuels produced by acre of land and
the payments that would result under the current scheme.
Yields Biofuel production
gal/acre
Current Subsidy*
$/acre
Corn (bu/acre) 153 428 218.5
Soybean (bu/acre) 45 63.1 63.1
Corn Stover (kg/acre) 1600 112 57.1
Switchgrass (kg/acre) 5,000 350 178.5
U.S. Cottonseed Production
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
1997/98 1999/00 2001/02 2003/04 2005/06 2007/08 2009/10 2011/12 2013/14 2015/16 2017/18
Thousand Tons
CARD FAPRI
U.S. Cottonseed Domestic Use
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
1997/98 1999/00 2001/02 2003/04 2005/06 2007/08 2009/10 2011/12 2013/14 2015/16 2017/18
Thousand Tons
CARD FAPRI
U.S. Cottonseed Crush
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
1997/98 1999/00 2001/02 2003/04 2005/06 2007/08 2009/10 2011/12 2013/14 2015/16 2017/18
Thousand Tons
CARD FAPRI
U.S. Cottonseed Farm Price
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
1997/98 1999/00 2001/02 2003/04 2005/06 2007/08 2009/10 2011/12 2013/14 2015/16 2017/18
U.S. Dollar
CARD FAPRI
U.S. Cottonseed Meal Price
0
50
100
150
200
250
1997/98 1999/00 2001/02 2003/04 2005/06 2007/08 2009/10 2011/12 2013/14 2015/16 2017/18
U.S. Dollar
CARD FAPRI
U.S. Cottonseed Oil Price
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
1997/98 1999/00 2001/02 2003/04 2005/06 2007/08 2009/10 2011/12 2013/14 2015/16 2017/18
U.S. Dollar
CARD FAPRI
U.S. Cottonseed Crushing Margin
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
1997/98 1999/00 2001/02 2003/04 2005/06 2007/08 2009/10 2011/12 2013/14 2015/16 2017/18
U.S. Dollar
CARD FAPRI
U.S. Cottonseed Meal Total Use
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
1997/98 1999/00 2001/02 2003/04 2005/06 2007/08 2009/10 2011/12 2013/14 2015/16 2017/18
Thousand Tons
CARD FAPRI
U.S. Cottonseed Oil Production
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1997/98 1999/00 2001/02 2003/04 2005/06 2007/08 2009/10 2011/12 2013/14 2015/16 2017/18
Million Pounds
CARD FAPRI
U.S. Cottonseed Oil Exports
0
50
100
150
200
250
1997/98 1999/00 2001/02 2003/04 2005/06 2007/08 2009/10 2011/12 2013/14 2015/16 2017/18
Million Pounds
CARD FAPRI
Thanks to Harold Tylstra for the next several slides
Where do exports originate from?
The Distillers Grains Industry-an estimate of market potential
4 MMT
10%
5 MMT
10%
6 MMT
10%
20 MMT
25%
Bold print = estimated annual total use
Percentages = percent of the diet
Theoretical potential use:
Domestic feed use 35 MMT
Exports 2 – 4 MMT
Non-feed uses ??(next slide)
Total: 36 - 40 MMTannually
1.51.9
2.32.9
3.7
4.6
5.7
7.2
8.9
11.2
1.2
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
Year
MM
T
Source: The ProExporter Network®
DDGS Production CARD Run
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17
Year
Thou
sand
Met
ric
Tons
ProductionUse
Distillers Grains price trends
Often stated as a percentage of corn price 35.7 bu/ton @ $4.68 = $167.07 DDGS @ $162 = 97%
Interesting way to look at historical prices Has tended to be slightly to moderately higher than corn Early fall; trending lower than corn (per ton basis) Early winter; slightly higher than corn Slightly lower than corn (in sync with energy levels?)
Not to good at predicting future prices Because corn is just one of the ingredients distillers grains
replaces in the diet Because of the rapid increase in supply of distillers grains
products
CORN VS. DISTILLERS GRAINPRICE PER METRIC TON
JANUARY 2004-PRESENT
6080
100120140160180200220240260280
$ P
ER
ME
TRIC
TO
N
6080100120140160180200220240260280
$ PE
R M
ETR
IC TO
N
DISTILLERS FOB STOCKTON WHOLE CORN FOB TURLOCK
From Dan Keefe, USGC meeting, February 2008
DDGS Prices from FeedstuffsLocation 8-2006 11-2006 1-2007 7-2007 9-2007 12-2007 1-2008
Atlanta 116.00 155.00 169.00 155.00 165.00 188.00 228.00
Boston 115.00 162.00 167.00 131.00 143.00 174.00 197.00
Buffalo 100.00 135.00 142.00 111.00 117.00 154.00 172.00
Chicago 78.00 115.00 127.00 110.00 115.00 135.00 162.00
Fayetteville, NC 134.00 160.00 172.00 157.00 166.00 188.00 225.00
Kansas City 90.00 113.00 125.00 120.00 110.00 122.00 140.00
Los Angeles 112.00 163.00 168.00 138.00 150.00 188.00 226.00
Minneapolis 70.00 110.00 125.00 95.00 100.00 135.00 155.00
Okeechobee 116.00 157.00 164.00 153.00 162.00 188.00 225.00
Portland 119.00 172.50 N/A 151.50 159.00 187.50 222.50
San Francisco 112.00 163.00 168.00 138.00 150.00 188.00 226.00
Twin Falls 118.00 173.00 174.00 148.00 155.00 192.00 234.00
Estimated Value of DDGS KSU DDGS Calculator.xls
Corn, $/bu $ 4.68
SBM, $/ton $ 344.00
Monocal, $/ton $ 490.00
Limestone, $/ton $ 40.00
Lysine HCl, $/lb $ 1.00
DDGS, $/ton $ 162.00
DDGS, %
10% 20% 30%
Change in diet cost, $/ton -$6.85 -$11.99 -$15.86
Approximate savings, $/pig $2.05 $3.60 $4.76
Breakeven price, $/ton $230.49 $221.93 $214.87
DDGS – inclusion levelsBold = typical; Italics = maximum
10 - 20%
30% (G/F)
>40% (gestation)
5 – 12 %
15%
5 – 15%
20%
15 - 25%
40%
What about fractionation?
For corn ethanol facilities:Pre-fermentation - separating kernel into
component parts: germ, endosperm, and bran.
Post-fermentation – centrifuge distillers grains into component parts and separating corn oil from solubles.
Fractionation considerations: “High protein” distillers grains
lower oil content, lower caloric levels? Example: Verasun removing 7 – 8 million gallons of corn oil from
390,000 tons of distillers grains.* corn oil ~ 3900 Kcal/pound (ME-swine) DDGS ~1480 Kcal/pound (ME-swine) #2 yellow corn ~ 1530 Kcal / pound (ME-swine)
Higher protien, but lysine ratio? Importance of ME-swine and lysine in feed formula
Germ meals Have not been fermented
Phosphorus still in unavailable form for pigs About 60% of the phosphorus in DDGS is available for pigs
If corn oil is removed, energy levels?
*Feedstuffs, January 7, 2008, page 17.
AS OF: Fall 2007
= Oil extraction
= Fractionation
Orange = Operational
Blue = Development/Construction
Note: This map is not guaranteed to be all-inclusive of facilities utilizing fractionation or oil extraction processes. The map show only those locations that the study’s author is aware of.
This study is the property of the National Corn Growers Association and may not be reprinted or redistributed without express written consent from NCGA.
Nutrient composition of new, fractionated corn distiller’s by-products (dry matter basis)
Company By-Product Dry matter, %
Crude protein, %
Crude fat, %
Crude fiber, %
Ash, %
Typical corn DDGS 89.3 30.9 10.7 7.2 6.0 Poet Dakota Gold HP 91.6 44.8 3.9 7.3 2.1 Poet Dakota Bran ND1 14.6 9.8 3.8 4.6 Poet Dehydrated Corn Germ 93.2 16.9 18.9 5.5 5.8 Maize Processing Innovators Quick Germ/Quick Fiber DDGS
ND 49.3 3.9 6.8 3.2
Maize Processing Innovators E-Mill DDGS
ND 58.5 4.5 2.0 3.2
Cereal Process Technologies Hi-Protein DDGS
ND 35.0-37.0 4.0-6.0 4.0-6.0 ND
Renessen Enhanced DDGS ND 40.0-50.0 2.5-4.0 7.0-11.0 ND Solaris NeutraGerm 97.0 17.5 45.0 6.0 1.9 Solaris Probran 90.0 9.5 2.0 16.6 1.0 Solaris Glutenol 90.0 45.0 3.3 3.8 4.0 Solaris Energia 90.0 30.0 2.5 8.2 2.5 FWS Technologies Enhanced DDGS
ND 35.0-37.0 6.5 ND 3.8
De-Oiled DDGS 89.9 31.3 2.3 ND 6.2 J. Jireh Products Dried Condensed Solubles
93.4 21.6 4.7 3.1 8.3
Variability (Coefficients of Variation, %) of Selected Nutrients Among 32 U.S. DDGS Sources vs. 6 U.S. Soybean Meal Sources. (Shurson)
Nutrient DDGS Soybean Meal
Crude protein 4.5 2.3
Crude fat 17.1 30.9
Crude fiber 18.9 9.5
Ash 27.2 6.6
Lysine 12.1 3.0
Methionine 8.5 5.3
Threonine 5.8 4.2
Tryptophan 12.0 7.3
Calcium 117.5 25.8
Phosphorus 19.4 9.1
Distillers Grains topics:
Mycotoxins Feed stock levels are multiplied in distillers products Best prevention is proper BMP’s at ethanol plant. Testing
Many of the kits available for grain are not dependable for distillers grains
Use laboratories to confirm kit accuracy
Recent examples: Aflatoxin – 2007 Sioux City, IA area Vomitoxin – 2006 southern Ontario
Distillers Grains topics:
Use of antibiotics at the ethanol plant LactrolTM is a virginiamycin containing product from Phibro.
has a “letter of no objection” from FDA permitting use at ethanol plants to control Lactobillus sp. Infections in fermenters.
FDA has not made “official” comment on use of other antibiotics in ethanol plants: penicillin, streptomycin, neomycin, etc.
Not aware of any antibiotic residue issues from distillers grains in swine feed.
Use of distillers products in “natural” pork programs needs to be carefully evaluated.