emerging vehicle and fuel technologies - · pdf fileclean the air; • reduce dependence...

Emerging Vehicle and Fuel Technologies

For Clean, Efficient Transportation

Clean Transportation Technologies & Solutions SM

Bill Van AmburgSenior Vice President

Mobility 2030 – San Francisco, CAAugust 18, 2009

Copyright CALSTART 2009

Mission Statement

CALSTART is a unique national, non-profit, member-supported organization dedicated to the growth of an advanced transportation technologies industry that will:

• Create high-quality jobs;• Clean the air;• Reduce dependence on foreign oil; and• Prevent global warming


CALSTART: A Strategic Broker for Advanced Transportation

National and International in Project Areas

2009130+ Worldwide Member

Network

4 Offices in US

Four focus areas:Tech CommercializationFleet, Port ConsultingIndustry ServicesPolicy Development


CALSTART Has 130+ Member/ Participants (partial list)


Find Combination Strategies

Air Quality

Climate ChangeEnergy Security

We must find solutions that

address all three

competing needs

Integrated Solutions Needed

There is no one “Silver Bullet” solution


Agenda

• Trends & Drivers of Change in Transportation– The Fuel, Emissions and Climate

Challenge – and Opportunity• Some Observations Based on

Where Change is Heading• Summary


2030: We Can’t Get There in Vehicles

• 2030 requires more than JUST more- efficient cars & trucks and lower carbon fuels

• 2030 requires cleaner, more efficient transportation design and systems – mobility for people, efficient transport for goods

• 2030 is the half way point of 40 years of significant tech, fuel and transportation design change needed to save the planet

California Secure Transportation Energy Partnership (CalSTEP) Action Plan


Sources of GHG

• Transportation is biggest GHG source in CA, but it is also one third of all US emissions


Magnitude of California’s Challenge to 2020 and Beyond

80% Reduction ~341 MMT CO2e

ARB Emissions Inventory

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

1990 2000 2004 2020 2050Year

Mill

ion

Met

ric T

ons

(CO

2 Equ

ival

ent)

1990 Emission Baseline

~173 MMT CO2e Reduction

80% Reduction ~341 MMT CO2e

15% above 1990 levels today


International Energy Agency: 6 New Saudis Needed by 2030


EPA’s Light Duty GHG Standard Average of 250 g CO2/mile by 2016

•Standards have same endpoint as CA Pavley standards.

•5% annual rate of improvement

•Still higher than limits in many other developed countries.


Reductions Beyond Pavley Needed in Ground Transportation

Pavley bill (AB 1493 in 2002) helps

reduce rate of growth

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

GH

G M

MT

(CO

2 e)

2050 GHG Goal 80% Below 1990

Pavley Reductions

Alternative Fuel Reductions

AB 32 Allowable GHG Emissions

2050 GHG Emissions Expected - IEPR


Possible Drivers of Truck Fuel Efficiency: Carbon

MPG Needed to Reduce Carbon

35.3

15.7

9.77.16

1990 1990-27% 1990-55% 1990-80%

Carbon Reduction Level

MPG

Cutting carbon means reducing fuel burn and using lower carbon fuels.

This chart illustrates how Class 8 fuel efficiency might need to improve if it had to tackle carbon reduction alone.

Today 2020 2030 2040 2050

Discussion estimates only

Need fuels and efficiency combined


Combination Strategies

• High efficiency vehicles combine with low carbon fuels – eventually this combination becomes the norm– Hybrid/biofuel vehicles– Plug-in hybrid/biofuel– Diesel/high efficiency engine/hybrid/biofuel– Extended range EV/biofuel


The Nation’s Most Advanced Biofuel Hybrid Vehicle

• Florida Power & Light (FP&L) fuels this hybrid electric truck on B30 (30% biodiesel) resulting in approximately 70% less oil used compared to conventional truck

• Biofuels + Hybrids = Real Synergy (hybrid technology will maximize use of biofuels which will be limited by amount of acreage)


Significant Growth in Hybrid Trucks

• Every major truck and bus manufacturer in North America is now selling one or more hybrid products

• Hydraulic hybrid and hybrid electric technology gaining strength

36 Trucks Took Part in HTUF Conference Ride and Drive – South Bend, IN October 2008


Wal-Mart Class 8 Demo

• ArvinMeritor – Navistar deliver unique dual-mode hybrid design for testing

• Electric drive at lower speeds (up to 48 mph), blended mode at higher speeds

• Can greatly reduce fuel use, cut idle and give zero emission at ports, urban driving

• Wal-Mart testing this truck and several Peterbilt-Eaton trucks in line-haul and regional heavy haul applications

• Wal-Mart committed to doubling its fleet fuel efficiency by 2015

•


Freightliner Innovation Truck

• Advanced aerodynamics• Predictive cruise control• Light weight materials• Variable chassis height• Energy storage for overnight

idle reduction

• Recent study shows technology available today to cut truck fuel consumption 50% (ICCT/NESCCAFF)


VW Shows Turbo/Super Charged CNG Concept Vehicle

• Touran TSI EcoFuel debuts at Geneva Motor Show– Features dual charging via

turbocharger and supercharger– When paired with a standard

6-speed transmission, fuel consumption is 4.8 kilograms of natural gas per 100 kilometers

– CO2 is approximately 129g/km• Meets Euro-5 standards

– Has four natural gas tanks and an auxiliary gasoline tank

• Range of 370 kms using natural gas fuel only, and a maximum range of 520 kms

Photo: Media.Photobucket.com

CALSTART NewsNotes, 03/03/09


Battery Electric Vehicles Re-Emerging as Real Option

Mitsubishi IMiEVNissan Leaf

Daimler Electric SmartChevy Volt E-REV Tesla Roadster

Electric Mini

Chrysler “Peapod” & Others?


Smith Building More Electric Trucks in US; Modec Teaming with Navistar

• Smith Electric Vehicles launches new production facility in US in Kansas City region– Unveils US version of the Newton,

which has a top speed of 50, range of over 100 miles and a payload capacity of up to 16,280 lbs

– Unveils first all-electric utility bucket truck based on Newton at in partnership with Altec, PG&E

– Will also build electric Ford Transit Connect vehicle in Kansas City

• Modec and Navistar win grant from DOE to build electric delivery trucks in US


Toyota vs. GM vs. Ford: Working on Plug-In Hybrid Electric Vehicles

• Toyota Motor Company is testing plug-in hybrid electric vehicles, first Japanese automaker to research and road test the technology

• General Motors has taken the lead in developing rechargeable vehicles – “Volt” pre-production car unveiled Sept 08; possible for 2010

• GM may have Saturn Vue PHEV by late 2009

• Ford in PHEV testing partnership with Southern California Edison

• Ford continues to study a PHEV concept “Extend,” seeks trademarkFord PHEV Escape


The Fuel Landscape is Changing

• Broader look at full impacts on well-to-wheels basis underway, including indirect, food competition and land use impacts

Renewable and Appropriate Energy Lab, UC Berkeley


Graphical Depiction of Indirect Emissions

Source: Alex Farrell, UC Berkeley


Where Are Biofuels Headed?

• Still very much an active debate• Today’s biofuels are stepping stones to next

generation fuels and feedstocks – we believe you must start somewhere to make progress!

• Biofuels in future that do not compete with food and wilderness for fertile land can avoid indirect GHG emissions (Alex Farrell, UC Berkeley Energy & Resources Group)– Wastes and residues, agriculture seasonal mix,

wastelands crops – more R&D


Low Carbon Fuel Standards Are Emerging

Source: 3/5/09 CARB Draft LCFS Rule


Observation: Closer Link Between Fuel and Region/Person

• More Grid Connection– Smart timing, pricing systems– Vehicles contribute to system

• Waste-stream fuels– MSW, food/ag production, waste water

• Local fuel production

Waste Syngas or Biogas

Biomethane

Alcohol fuels

Electricity production

Standard fuels

Hydrogen


Power Grid Changing

•“Smart Grid”• Integrating Distributed Generation• Increasing generation from renewables

1


Vehicle to Grid- Integration of Transportation and Power Grid

Arrows indicate direction of power flow

(Kempton &Tomic, JPS, 2005) 2


Green-Gas Principle – Can Make “Natural Gas” Even Greener

Biogas

Natural gas

Residential housing

Industries

Filling stations

Swedish officials believe biomethane can meet 20% of future transportation

needs


Swedish Biomethane Vehicles


First Trucks to Run on Biomethane In California

• In 2009 Hilarides Dairy powers trucks on renewable biomethane from dairy operation

• Has potential to generate 650 diesel gallon equivalents (DGEs) from farm

• CALSTART is preparing a federal stimulus and AB 118 proposal to jump-start the CA biomethane industry

CBG Truck In Tulare

Tulare Covered Lagoon Producing biogas


Observation: Transportation Management Systems Needed, Will Grow

• Hardware and Software for consumer-level system maintenance, control

• Timing, routing, pricing of optimal choices for given need

• Consumers provided with choices based on “best” choices– Cost/emissions, congestion (infrastructure

availability)• Personal car one of choices but not only


Vehicles & Electric Grid

• Two large sectors that can be integrated• Smart interaction between vehicle fleet,

grid and intermittent renewable• Large, low-cost storage for renewables• Vehicle-to-Grid (V2G) power as bridging

technology

7


V2G Provides New Source of Distributed Generation

•50% of cars as EDVs increase electric load ?100 Million carsx 15,000 Miles per year / 4.8 Miles per kWh= 312 Billion kWh per year at off-peak times= 7 % of 2020 total national load

•With V2G, these EDVs also provide a huge power resource:100 M cars x 15 kW x 0.5 avail. = 750 GW of DG> 70% of 2020 national electric power capacity!

Conclusion: Even 50% of cars as EDV, IF they have V2G, probably REDUCE grid infrastructure requirements

6


Observation: Vehicle Ownership Models Likely to Change

• Will we remain wedded to the vehicle itself – or to the “service” provided by the vehicle?

• Cost of fuel, vehicle, insurance may change the relationship of people to vehicles– Vehicles may be offered as part of service

agreement rather than simple sales• Option: own vehicle, lease energy as service (battery lease)• Option: vehicle provided as part of energy agreement (cell

phone and solar panel model)• Option: vehicle 1 or 2 part of shared asset or service

agreement (car sharing or custom rental)


Observation: Cities Likely to Change to Drive More Efficient Transportation

• SB 375 in California and the AB 32 goals leading to first reviews of urban planning for climate impacts

• Land use and urban design the 800 pound gorilla (or one of them!) by 2030

• Mode shifting, telecommuting, better transit, walking/biking options


Oil Demand in North America Began Declining Before Economic Downturn

Price Signal Drives

Behavior – CA Saw

Similar Response

During Electricity Crisis in

2000-2001

Peak in Oil

Prices


Price Signals: Possibly Strongest Driver of Fuel Efficiency, LC Fuels

MPG to Maintain Today's Fuel Cost/Mile

15.5

23.2

12.4

6

9.3

$3.88 $6.00 $8.00 $10.00 $15.00Fuel Price

MPG

2008 2020 2030 2040 2050

Maintaining cost/mile for fuel means increasing efficiency or using lower cost fuels or blends.

This chart illustrates how Class 8 fuel efficiency might need to improve to maintain steady fuel cost/mile.

Discussion estimates only


Plan Beyond the Roller Coaster

• Fuel prices are increasing over time and it is unlikely we will “go back”

$2.70


Primary Actions

FUEL DIVERSITY:Alternative Fuels Portfolio Standard

– 10 percent by 2012 and at least 20 percent by 2020 – Codifies Governor’s stated goal; Parallel AB 32

strategy

EFFICIENT VEHICLES: ‘Energy Security Tax Relief and Realignment’

– A ‘Foreign Oil Security’ price floor coupled w/tax relief for all Californians of driving age

REDUCE NEED TO DRIVE: ‘Smart Communities’ Program

– Upgrade transportation models– New state transportation funding to local

governments who reduce driving by 10% over ~25 years

CalSTEP Recommendations


Summary: 2030 Observations

• No crystal ball: not completely clear which fuels and technologies will be absolute winners – but they will be driven by these trends:

• Greater Link Between Region/Consumer and Fuel: – Local and Distributed Energy

• Combination Strategies: – Efficiency & Fuel Key

• Expansion of Transportation Systems: – Hardware and Software to Optimize Consumer Energy Use,

Choices• Change in Vehicle Ownership Models:

– Product vs Service• Cities Change Planning/Land Use:

– Encouraging Transport Efficiency

Clean Transportation Technologies & Solutions SM

www.calstart.org

For info contact:

Bill Van Amburg(626) [email protected]

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