emodnet modeg meeting, brussels september 2010 ecological modelling in the north sea – data needs...

EMODNET MODEG Meeting, Brussels September 2010

Ecological modelling in Ecological modelling in the North Sea – data the North Sea – data

needs and policy needs and policy perspectiveperspective

David K. Mills David K. Mills

Johan van der MolenJohan van der Molen

Cefas, Lowestoft, UKCefas, Lowestoft, UK


Policy ContextPolicy Context

• Eutrophication - Eutrophication - OSPAR OSPAR definition :definition : ““the the enrichmentenrichment of of water by nutrients, especially water by nutrients, especially nitrogen and/or phosphorus, nitrogen and/or phosphorus, causing an causing an accelerated growth accelerated growth of algae and higher forms of of algae and higher forms of plant life to produce an plant life to produce an undesirable disturbance undesirable disturbance to the to the balance of organisms present balance of organisms present in the water and to the quality in the water and to the quality of water concernedof water concerned””


Cefas/NIOZ GETM-ERSEM

www.nioz.nl/northsea_model


Policy ContextPolicy Context

• OSPAR OSPAR PARCOM PARCOM Recommendation 88/2: Recommendation 88/2: has a requirement to aim has a requirement to aim to to achieve a substantial achieve a substantial reductionreduction (of the order of (of the order of 50%) in inputs of 50%) in inputs of phosphorus and nitrogen phosphorus and nitrogen into areas demonstrating into areas demonstrating eutrophication problems.eutrophication problems.


Policy questionsPolicy questions1.1. Is the OSPAR Is the OSPAR nutrient reduction nutrient reduction

strategy likely to eliminate strategy likely to eliminate eutrophication eutrophication in all Problem Areas?in all Problem Areas?

2.2. To what extent does the To what extent does the TransBoundary Transport of TransBoundary Transport of NutrientsNutrients between national maritime between national maritime areas areas contribute to eutrophicationcontribute to eutrophication??

3.3. What What evidenceevidence is there to is there to contestcontest the European courts the European courts infraction infraction proceedings against the UK proceedings against the UK under under the UWWTD contending that several the UWWTD contending that several water bodies (6) are eutrophic water bodies (6) are eutrophic (under the UWWTD)(under the UWWTD)

Problem Area

Non -Problem Area

Potential Problem Area

Outcome to 2nd Application OSPAR CP


Model application – infraction Model application – infraction proceedingsproceedings

• Use simple, easy to understand, Use simple, easy to understand, risk assessment modelrisk assessment model

• Draw in Draw in UK expertise UK expertise to prepare for model application, to prepare for model application, review results, distil advice to Defrareview results, distil advice to Defra

• Specific attention give to Specific attention give to calculate uncertainty calculate uncertainty in resultsin results

• Iterative application Iterative application – run model, interpret results, – run model, interpret results, provide advice to Defra and expert panel, obtain provide advice to Defra and expert panel, obtain feedback, re-run model.feedback, re-run model.

• Specific question – does the naturally Specific question – does the naturally ‘high’ turbidity ‘high’ turbidity in in UK coastal waters UK coastal waters limitlimit the susceptibility to the susceptibility to eutrophication eutrophication

• Answer - Answer - YESYES many water bodies experience many water bodies experience strong strong light limitationlight limitation and so susceptibility is reduced. and so susceptibility is reduced.


OSPAR - Ecosystem Modelling

Norway

• Utilise established capability in ecosystem modelling in member countries

• OSPAR created collaborative infrastructure

• 6 countries 7 models• OSPAR Intersessional

Correspondance Group on Eutrophication Modelling – (ICG-EMO) www.cefas.co.uk/eutmod

• Formed 2005 – works to OSPAR ToR’s

http://www.cefas.co.uk/eutmod


OSPAR: will the strategy to combat OSPAR: will the strategy to combat eutrophication be effective?eutrophication be effective?

• Use coupled 3D-hydrodynamic Use coupled 3D-hydrodynamic ecosystem modelsecosystem models

– Realstic riverine Realstic riverine nutrient reduction nutrient reduction scenario’sscenario’s

– Calculate Calculate transport of nutrients transport of nutrients across across maritime boundariesmaritime boundaries

• Multi-model ensemble approach Multi-model ensemble approach through international working group through international working group (ICG-EMO) –3 workshops(ICG-EMO) –3 workshops

• CommonCommon forcing, calibration and forcing, calibration and validation data, and model validation data, and model comparisoncomparison

• Outcome Outcome scrutinisedscrutinised by OSPAR by OSPAR and formal ICES reviewand formal ICES review

Model domains


Quality assurance in model applicationQuality assurance in model application• Riverine nutrient data Riverine nutrient data

improvedimproved

• Composite data Composite data from North from North Sea partners to create new Sea partners to create new data source for model data source for model calibration and validationcalibration and validation

• Quantitative approach to Quantitative approach to assess assess model performancemodel performance (cost functions)(cost functions)

• Results presented in Results presented in scientific meetings and scientific meetings and published in published in peer reviewed peer reviewed paperpaper

Lenhart H,. Mills, D.K, Baretta-Bekker, H., van Leeuwen, S., van der Molen, J., Baretta, J.W., Blaas, M., Desmit, X., Kühn, W., Lacroix, G., Los, H.J., Ménesguen, A., Neves, R., Proctor, R., Ruardij, P., Skogen, M.D, Vanhoutte-Brunier, A., Villars, M.T., S. L. Wakelin (2010). Predicting the consequences of nutrient reduction on the eutrophication status of theNorth Sea. Journal of Marine Systems 81, 148-170


Validation 2002Validation 2002 NL-C3NL-C3


Nutrient reduction scenario testingNutrient reduction scenario testing

ammoniumammonium

19851985 20022002

Different load reductions for TOxN (NO2+NO3), NH4 and PO4

Different load reductions for each country required to construct realistic nutrient reduction scenarios

50%, 70% reduction of 1985 levels in 2002


Netherlands offshore water body (NL02) resultsNetherlands offshore water body (NL02) results

NL-O2 - parameter response to 50% nutrient load reduction

0

10

20

30

40

50

DIN DIP Chl O2min

red

uct

ion

(%

)

NL-O2 - parameter response to 70% nutrient load reduction

0

10

20

30

40

50

DIN DIP Chl O2min

red

uct

ion

(%

)

NL-O2 - mean winter DIN at surface

02468

10121416

0 20 40 60 80

nutrient load reduction (%)

µm

ol/l

NL-O2 - mean winter DIP at surface

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

0 20 40 60 80


µm

ol/l

NL-O2 - mean summer chlorophyll at surface

0

1

2

3

4

5

0 20 40 60 80


µg

/lNL-O2 - annual oxygen minimum at

bottom

4

5

6

7

8

9

0 20 40 60 80


mg

/l

0

1

2

3

4

5

0 20 40 60 80

UK-Cef DE NL

NO UK-P OL ass. level

0

10

20

30

40

50

DIN DIP Chl O2min

UK-Cef DE NL UK-POL mean

Mean winter DIN at surface

Mean winter DIP at surface

Mean summer Chl at surface

Annual O2 minimum at bottom

Indicator response to 50% reduction

Indicator response to 70% reduction

NL02NL02


Harmonised assessmentHarmonised assessmentparameters of the parameters of the

Common ProcedureCommon Procedure

DataDataCommonCommon

Proce-Proce-duredure20022002

GermanyGermanyECOHAM4ECOHAM4

NetherlandsNetherlandsDelft3D-GEMDelft3D-GEM

UK (POL)UK (POL)POLCOMS-ERSEMPOLCOMS-ERSEM

UK (Cefas)UK (Cefas)GETM-BFMGETM-BFM

NorwayNorwayNORWECOMNORWECOM

20022002 Sc1Sc1 Sc2Sc2 20022002 Sc1Sc1 Sc2Sc2 20022002 Sc1Sc1 Sc2Sc2 20022002 Sc1Sc1 Sc2Sc2 20022002 50% 50% redred

Cat. ICat. I

Winter DIN Winter DIN - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Winter DIP Winter DIP - + + 0 - - - - - - - - - - -

N:P ratio N:P ratio - - - - - - - - - - + - - - -

Cat. IICat. II

Chl mean Chl mean - - - - - - - - - - 0 0 - - -

Chl max Chl max - - - - + + + + + + + + + - -

Indicator Indicator species species

-/+ n/a n/a n/a 0 0 0 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a

Cat. IIICat. IIIOxygen minOxygen min + + + - + + + + + + + - - + +

Organic matterOrganic matter + n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a na na

Nutrient reduction scenario resultsNutrient reduction scenario resultsModel results presented in OSPAR Model results presented in OSPAR Comprehensive Procedure reporting formatComprehensive Procedure reporting format

Results for Netherlands Offshore water bodyResults for Netherlands Offshore water body

Scenario 1 and 2 is 50% and 70% reduction respectivelyScenario 1 and 2 is 50% and 70% reduction respectively


UK2: HumberUK2: Humber

Transboundary Transboundary nutrient transportnutrient transport


NL1: RhineNL1: Rhine

Pelagic + Pelagic +

BenthicBenthic

Pelagic + Pelagic +

BenthicBenthic

Pelagic + Pelagic +

BenthicBenthic

Transboundary Transboundary nutrient transportnutrient transport


Contribution to annual average total N Contribution to annual average total N from all sourcesfrom all sources

National Maritime National Maritime AreasAreas

OSPAR-ICG-OSPAR-ICG-EMO areasEMO areas

NetherlandsNetherlands GermanyGermany


OutcomesOutcomesModel work funded by Defra led by Cefas has resulted in Model work funded by Defra led by Cefas has resulted in

• Amendment OSPAR strategy: a Amendment OSPAR strategy: a 50% reduction 50% reduction in riverine in riverine nutrient input (compared to 1985) nutrient input (compared to 1985) may not be sufficientmay not be sufficient to to eliminate eutrophication in some water bodies.eliminate eutrophication in some water bodies.

• Availability of Availability of quantitative information on transboundary quantitative information on transboundary pollution (nutrient) transport pollution (nutrient) transport between maritime areas between maritime areas allowing robust allowing robust eutrophication mitigation strategies eutrophication mitigation strategies to be to be developeddeveloped

• Clear Clear science based evidence science based evidence on the reduced susceptibility on the reduced susceptibility of certain UK coastal water bodies to eutrophication that of certain UK coastal water bodies to eutrophication that contributed to the UK defence contributed to the UK defence against the European Court against the European Court infraction proceedings carried out under the UWWTD infraction proceedings carried out under the UWWTD


Lessons Learned

• Data gathering extremely hard work and time consuming

• Availability of riverine nutrient flux data at European scale problematic especially for recent (3-4 y) data

• National marine monitoring data invaluable for calibration and validation

• Collaborative working through ICG-EMO extremely efficient (task sharing, interpretation)

• International multi-model ensemble approach essential for use of models to advise policy end-user – helps to reduce conflict in international/European policy fora.


Data Needs

• Good spatial coverage

• Multiple parameters

• More years (currently 1988/89 and 2002)

• Long-term time series (several decades)

• Near-real time river runoff and nutrient load data


Current and Future Developments

• EMECO: web-based assessments

• Western Shelf Observatory: monitoring shelf-ocean exchange

• 50-year hind cast of North Sea ecosystem dynamics (movie?)

• Egg and larvae particle tracking: MPA potential interconnectivity


European Marine ECosystem Observatory

Raw

data h

old

ing

Real time

Delayed mode

Delayed mode

QC/

QA

Hindcast

Forecast

QA’d

Databases

ICESDelayed mode

EM

EC

O D

atatoo

l Interface

EMODNET

MERMAN

EMECOAssessment

database

EM

EC

O U

ser Qu

ery

DataXML, CSV

UK/EU sources

EMECO Web – enabled Datatools

Assessment map

Time-series

KML–Google Earth

GMES - MyOcean

Real time

Delayed mode

Gridded data

CPR Delayed mode QA’d

Data

Information and evidence ‘pipeline’

Calibration

Validation


Western Shelf Observatory


Stratification, OystergroundsStratification, Oystergrounds

T

Strength

Duration

Onset


MPA potential interconnectivityMPA potential interconnectivity

http://www.marlin.ac.uk/sightingsMapper.php?sps=Ophiura%20ophiura

http://image12.webshots.com/12/6/61/3/135366103lJhuBp_fs.jpg


??


Communication strategyAim - to ensure full understanding of policy customer needs

• Gain full understanding of Defra requirements– Regular direct contact between policy customer and Cefas

advisory staff– Participation by Cefas staff in relevant international and UK

policy for a e.g. OSPAR EUC, UK Eutrophication Committee (?)– Defra and Cefas jointly developing specification for

commissioned work

• Transmit knowledge to Defra– Regular formal and informal contact between policy and

advisory staff– Multiple communication methods – meetings, written reports,

web-reporting, formal presentations, workshops– 2-way communications with prioritised & rapid response to Defra– Complex model results communicated in a meaningful way to

policy customers.

emodnet modeg meeting, brussels september 2010 ecological modelling in the north sea – data needs...

Documents

model calibration

model comparisonoutcome

rerun model

eutrophication problems

eutrophication answer

water bodies

validation data

enrichment of water