END-USER FOCUSED VERIFICATION OF PRECIPITATION NOWCASTSDURING THE SOCHI 2014 WINTER OLYMPICS

Larisa Nikitina 1, Suleiman Mostmandy 2, Pertti Nurmi (presenter) 3

1 Aviamettelecom of Roshydromet, Russian Federation, (nikfia@mail.ru)2 North-west department of Roshydromet, Russian Federation (http://suleiman.rshu.ru)

3 Finnish Meteorological Institute, Finland, (pertti.nurmi@fmi.fi)

NOWCASTING SYSTEMS FOR SOCHI 2014 WINTER

OLYMPICS

• RDP

• Model–based• Pointwise

• 10 min/6 hours

• Temperature• Humidity• Wind

direction and speed

• Precipitation

INTW (Env.Canada)

• FDP

• Radar –based• Pointwise

• 10 min/1,5 hour

• Only precipitation (rate and accumulated)

CARDS (Env.Canada)

• FDP

• Blended (Radar +NWP)

• Gridded (1km)

• 10 min/ up to 48 hours

• Temperature• Humidity• Wind

direction, speed and gusts

• Precipitation (10 min)

INCA (ZAMG, Austria)

• FDP

• Radar –based• Pointwise

• 10 min/4 hours

• Temperature• Humidity• Wind direction,

and speed• Precipitation• Visibility• Ceiling

MeteoExpert(IRAM, Russia)

• FDP

• Model–based• Pointwise

• Hourly/up to 48 hours

• Temperature,• Humidity• Wind speed,

direction and gusts

• MSLP

Joint (Multi-system

forecast integration,

RHM)

QUICK LOOK AT THE DATA

Nowcasting (precipitation accumulation):

• CARDS – (10 min) from 25.01.2014 till 31.03.2014

• INCA - (10 min) from 27.01.2014 till 19.03.2014

• INTW – (10min) from 18.02.2014 till 03.04.2014

Stations used in verification:

• Imeretinka (37095), 6m, precip: Vaisala VRG101

• Ski Jump (39040), 630m, precip: OTT Pluvio-2

• Biathlon Stadium (39044), 1460 m, precip: OTT

• Rosa Khutor 3, 2043 m, precip: ARG100

Verification aspects:

Point-wise forecast vs. observation

Categorical verification

Subjective evaluation by forecasters

CARDS Visualization

INTW Visualization

NOWCASTSEvaluated

Subjectively

• 4‐point scale:• 0 – not useful• 1 – partly useful• 2 – useful• 3 ‐ excellent

• Overall forecasters’ opinion was that the available technologies were very helpful

• Except: Perhaps too many systems

(difficult to absorb in operational setting)

CARDS (25.01. - 31.03.2014)

Some extremes observedbut not forecasted - 29.03 and 31.03

Some good forecasts:- 02.02 -18.02, no precipitation -16.03, fcst and obs 3-4mm/h (but not for Imeretinka)

Some false alarms - 02.03 - 09.03

Point forecasts statistics for CARDS

Imeretinka Ski Jump Biathlon Stadium Rosa Khutor

0,1 mm/h 0,57 0,75 0,69 0,61

1 mm/h 0,30 0,53 0,43 0,41

2,5 mm/h 0,06 0,06 0,05 0,02

0,000,100,200,300,400,500,600,700,800,901,00

CARDS 60 min - POD

Imeretinka Ski Jump Biathlon Stadium Rosa Khutor

0,1 mm/h 0,48 0,42 0,34 0,22

1 mm/h 0,62 0,35 0,3 0,36

2,5 mm/h 0,87 0,81 0,84 0,96

0,000,100,200,300,400,500,600,700,800,901,00

CARDS 60 min - FAR

Imeretinka Ski Jump Biathlon Stadium Rosa Khutor

0,1 mm/h 0,51 0,68 0,62 0,57

1 mm/h 0,29 0,51 0,42 0,4

2,5 mm/h 0,06 0,08 0,04 0,01

0,000,100,200,300,400,500,600,700,800,901,00

CARDS 60 min - KSS

Imeretinka Ski Jump Biathlon Stadium Rosa Khutor0,1 mm/h 0,67 0,8 0,76 0,74

1 mm/h 0,56 0,74 0,69 0,67

2,5 mm/h 0,39 0,33 0,31 0,18

0,000,100,200,300,400,500,600,700,800,901,00

CARDS 60 min - EDI

INCA (27.01. – 19.03.2014)

Some extremes observed but not forecasted 29.01 and 17.03

Some good forecasts:- 02.02 -16.02, no precipitation -12.03 and 16.03, fcst and obs 2-4mm/h (not for RKHU 3)!

Point forecasts statistics for INCA

Imeretinka Biathlon Stadium Rosa Khutor

0,1 mm/h 0,75 0,70 0,46

1 mm/h 0,55 0,39 0,15

2,5 mm/h 0,17 0,33 0,00

0,000,100,200,300,400,500,600,700,800,901,00

INCA 60 min - POD

Imeretinka Biathlon Stadium Rosa Khutor

0,1 mm/h 0,38 0,52 0,13

1 mm/h 0,45 0,73 0,30

2,5 mm/h 0,75 0,67 1,00

0,000,100,200,300,400,500,600,700,800,901,00

INCA 60 min - FAR

Imeretinka Biathlon Stadium Rosa Khutor

0,1 mm/h 0,70 0,61 0,44

1 mm/h 0,53 0,35 0,15

2,5 mm/h 0,16 0,33 0,00

0,00

0,10

0,20

0,30

0,40

0,50

0,60

0,70

0,80

INCA 60 min - KSS

Imeretinka Biathlon Stadium Rosa Khutor

0,1 mm/h 0,82 0,74 0,67

1 mm/h 0,75 0,56 0,50

2,5 mm/h 0,53 0,67 0,00

0,000,100,200,300,400,500,600,700,800,901,00

INCA 60 min - EDI

INTW (18.02. – 03.04.2014)

Some events observedbut not forecasted - 21.02 and 31.03

Some good forecasts:- 21.02 -26.02, no precipitation - 05.03 and 27.03, fcst and obs 2mm/h (not for RKHU 3)!

Some false alarms - 16-18.03 and 20.03

Point forecasts statistics for INTW

Ski Jump Biathlon Stadium Rosa Khutor

0,1 mm/h 0,70 0,88 0,42

1 mm/h 0,11 0,14 0,02

2,5 mm/h 0,02 0,03 0

0,000,100,200,300,400,500,600,700,800,901,00

INTW 60 min - POD

Ski Jump Biathlon Stadium Rosa Khutor

0,1 mm/h 0,42 0,37 0,69

1 mm/h 0,36 0,06 0,84

2,5 mm/h 0,56 0,00 1,00

0,000,100,200,300,400,500,600,700,800,901,00

INTW 60 min - FAR

Ski Jump Biathlon Stadium Rosa Khutor0,1 mm/h 0,57 0,75 0,18

1 mm/h 0,09 0,14 0

2,5 mm/h 0,01 0,03 0

00,10,20,30,40,50,60,70,80,9

1

INTW 60 min - KSS

Ski Jump Biathlon Stadium Rosa Khutor

0,1 mm/h 0,70 0,88 0,24

1 mm/h 0,30 0,51 0,04

2,5 mm/h 0,12 0 0

0,000,100,200,300,400,500,600,700,800,901,00

INTW 60 min - EDI

Skill (HSS) for 3 Nowcast Systems : CARDS, INCA, INTW

1. In general, all nowcasts

demonstrate relatively good

skill.

2. They were considered very

useful by forecasters during

the Games.

3. CARDS shows best overall

scores.

4. Underestimation at some

sites but, contradictory: Poor

forecasts of intense

precipitation (missed

events).

0,62

0,48

0,02

0,53

0,24

0,01

0,16

0 0

Rosa Khutor, 2043 m

cards inca intw

0,61

0,52

0,15

0,51

0,30 0,33

0,65

0,21

0,05

0,1 MM/H 1 MM/H 2,5 MM/H

Biathlon Stadium, 1440 m

cards inca intw

LESSONS LEARNED

Nowcast problems (all models) :• Timing: Time of the start and end of phenomena (precipitation)• Precipitation amount in case of weakly developed processes• Maximum wind speed • Visibility and ceiling

Forecasters’ model-related challenges:• Number of products is both an advantage and a challenge – with many new

products and time for decision-making is strictly limited• Degree of model usage depends on the degree of forecasters’ familiarity with

models and, therefore, confidence in it (more familiar = more usable)• Forecasters (other end-users as well) need time to adapt to new products

 Forecasting issues during the Olympics Key role of forecasters in:

• Integration and control of diverse and (sometimes) contradictory model information

• Decision-making process for the high-impact events !

Thank you for your attention!