energizing america: facts for addressing energy policy
DESCRIPTION
Ports-to-Plains Energy SummitOmni Interlocken ResortBroomfield, COApril 7, 2011Lunch KeynoteJohn Felmy, Chief Economist, American Petroleum InstituteTRANSCRIPT
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$0.50
$1.50
$2.50
$3.50
$4.50
Mar '05 Mar '06 Mar '07 Mar '08 Mar '09 Mar '10 Mar '11
pric
e pe
r ga
llon
4/6/2011Diesel (AAA) $4.02Gasoline (AAA) $3.73Crude Oil (NYMEX) $2.59
Diesel, Gasoline and Crude Prices
Source: NYMEX (WTI crude oil) and AAA (gasoline and diesel)
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8/262.682
4/63.725
+104.3
8/241.7055$71.638/25cbot
$1.829
2.5912+88.57$108.83
1.000
1.500
2.000
2.500
3.000
3.500
4.000
8/1/2010 9/1/2010 10/1/2010 11/1/2010 12/1/2010 1/1/2011 2/1/2011 3/1/2011 4/1/2011
Gasoline and Crude Oil PricesAAA, NYMEX
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7/17/084.114
12/29/081.616
1/20/091.848
3.725+187.7
7/14/083.4567145.18
12/19/080.8064$33.87
1/20/090.9224$38.74$1.612
2.5912+166.88$108.83
0.700
1.200
1.700
2.200
2.700
3.200
3.700
4.200
4.700
1/9/
2008
2/9/
2008
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/9/2
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9/20
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011
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Gasoline and Crude Oil PricesAAA, NYMEX
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Oil prices relate to many uncertain factors
Speculation, hedging, investment
Global economic growth
OPEC production decisions
Exchange rates and Inflation
Spare production capacity
Global Oil Prices
Non-OPEC supply growth Inventories
Geo-political risks
Weather
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86.7
86.1
85.0
87.9
89.4
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
World Oil DemandIEA - MMBD
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2.0%
0.4%
4.3%
2.2%
7.7%
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
Total Gasoline Diesel Jet Fuel Residual
Change in U.S. Petroleum Demand 2010 vs 2009
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World Liquid Fuels Consumption
EIA, Short-Term Energy Outlook, March 2011
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OPEC Surplus Crude Oil Production Capacity
EIA, Short-Term Energy Outlook, March 2011
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Source: EIA, Short-Term Energy Outlook, March 2011
2009 2010 2011 2012 09-10 10-11 11-12WTI Crudea
($/barrel) 61.65 79.4 101.77 104.75 28.8 28.2 2.9Gasolineb
($/gal) 2.35 2.78 3.56 3.57 18.4 27.9 0.5Dieselc
($/gal) 2.46 2.99 3.81 3.82 21.5 27.4 0.2
Heating Oild ($/gal) 2.52 2.97 3.7 3.9 17.7 24.6 5.3Natural Gasd
($/mcf) 12.12 11.18 11.2 11.92 -7.8 0.2 6.4
Electricityd
(cents/kwh) 11.55 11.58 11.69 11.74 0.2 1 0.5
Percent Change
a West Texas Intermediate. b Average regular pump price.c On-highw ay retail. d U.S. Residential average.
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72
Percent of Source
Percent of Sector
94Petroleum35.3
Petroleum35.3
Natural Gas23.4
Coal19.7Coal19.7
RenewableEnergy
7.7
NuclearElectric Power
8.3
Transportation27.0
Industrial18.8
Residential, Commercial
10.6
ElectricPower38.3
100 22
37.4%37.4%
24.8%
20.9%20.9%
8.2%
8.8%
Quadrillion BTUs Quadrillion BTUs
28.5%
19.9%
11.1%
40.4%
Percent Percent
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72 94Petroleum35.3 Transportation
27.0
Industrial18.8
Residential, Commercial
10.6
ElectricPower38.3
Percent of Source
Percent of Sector
EIA: Annual Energy Review 2009
28.5%
19.9%
11.1%
40.4%
37.4%37.4%
Percent PercentQuadrillion BTUs Quadrillion BTUs
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72
Percent of Source
Percent of Sector
94Petroleum35.3
Petroleum35.3
Natural Gas23.4
Coal19.7Coal19.7
RenewableEnergy
7.7
NuclearElectric Power
8.3
Transportation27.0
28.5%37.4%37.4%
24.8%
20.9%20.9%
8.2%
8.8%
Percent PercentQuadrillion BTUs Quadrillion BTUs
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72
Percent of Source
Percent of Sector
94Petroleum35.3
Petroleum35.3
Natural Gas23.4
Coal19.7Coal19.7
RenewableEnergy
7.7
NuclearElectric Power
8.3
Transportation27.0
Industrial18.8
Residential, Commercial
10.6
ElectricPower38.3
100 22
37.4%37.4%
24.8%
20.9%20.9%
8.2%
8.8%
Quadrillion BTUs Quadrillion BTUsPercent
0.2%
23.6%
36.4%
35.3%
4.5%
Elec. Flow
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1.40
10.50
10.70
11.20
12.40
18.20
22.50
0.00 5.00 10.00 15.00 20.00 25.00
Increase G&G Amortization Period
Reinstate Superfund Taxes
Modifications of Dual Capacity Rule
Repeal of Percentage Depletion
Repeal Expensing of Intangible Drilling Costs
Repeal of Sec. 199 for Oil and Natural Gas Companies
Repeal LIFO
Oil and Gas Tax Increases in 2012 BudgetBillion $
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Capital Spending
Source: Oil and Gas Journal, March 7, 2011
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