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  • 8/13/2019 Energy Resources of Pakistan-1

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    Mapping, Analysis & projection ofEnergy Supply Resources of Pakistan

    Dr. AHMAD HUSSAINNational MEAs Secretariat,P & D Division, Islamabad

    [email protected] 11, 2011

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    INTRODUCTION

    Energy supply & demand1. Energy supply & economic growth

    Back ground Information1. Pakistan Energy Scenario2. Economic Growth

    Main Emphasis1. Main Energy Supply resources of Pakistan2. Analysis of Supply resources3. Energy supply model for Pakistan

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    Energy Data

    Energy Supply Resources data1. Pakistan energy year book 20092. Base year 2009

    3. End year 20304. Input Variable for Energy Model5. Analysis of Supply Resources6. Projection of Energy Resources

    7. Future Planning

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    Current Energy Scenario

    Total Energy Supply was 62.522 Million Tonnes of OilEquivalent (MTOE ) in 2009

    Total Primary energy supplies 2009 Final Energy demands in 2009

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    Energy Supply Resources

    Natural gas resources are 30MTOE.Crude oil resources are 20MTOEThe LPG, Coal, Hydro, Nuclear are the other

    important sources of primary energy suppliers.

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    Analysis of supply Scenario Case

    Primary Energy Supply

    0

    5

    10

    15

    20

    25

    3035

    O i l

    G a s

    L P G

    C o a l

    H y d r o E l e c t r i c

    i t y

    N u c l e a

    r E l e c

    t r i c i t y

    I m p o r t e

    d E l e c

    t r i c i t y

    Source

    Q u a n

    t i t y ( M T O E )

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    Analysis of Energy Consumption

    Energy Consumption by Source

    0

    2

    4

    6

    810

    12

    14

    16

    18

    Oil Gas Coal Electricity LPG

    Source

    Q u a n

    t i t y ( M T O E )

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    Crude Oil Reserves

    0

    2468

    101214161820

    Balochistan KPK Punjab Sindh

    Province

    R e s e r v e s (

    M T O E )

    Crude Oil Cumulative Production, Province Wise

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    Petroleum Product Consumption

    Petroleum Product Consumption

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    Natural Gas Reserves, Province wise

    Natural Gas Resources

    0.0000.0500.1000.1500.2000.2500.3000.3500.400

    Balochistan Punjab KPK Sindh

    Province

    Q u a n

    t i t y

    ( M T O E )

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    Natural Gas Consumption

    Natural Gas Consumption

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    Coal Reserves

    Coal Reserves, Province wise

    0

    20000

    4000060000

    80000100000

    120000

    140000

    160000

    180000

    200000

    B a l o c h

    i s t a n

    K P K

    P u n j a

    b S i n

    d h T h a r

    Region

    T o t a l C o a l R e s e r v e s ( M T O E

    )

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    Crude Oil Projections

    0

    0.001

    0.002

    0.003

    0.004

    0.005

    0.006

    0.007

    0.008

    0.009

    .

    2 0 0 9 2 0 1 1 2 0 1 3 2 0 1 5 2 0 1 7 2 0 1 9 2 0 2 1 2 0 2 3 2 0 2 5 2 0 2 7 2 0 2 9 2 0 3 1 2 0 3 3 2 0 3 5

    Years

    Q u a n t

    i t y

    ( M T O E )

    Crude oil Projection

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    Crude Oil Projection Province wise

    0

    0.0005

    0.001

    0.0015

    0.002

    0.0025

    0.003

    0.0035

    2 0 0 9

    2 0 1 1

    2 0 1 3

    2 0 1 5

    2 0 1 7

    2 0 1 9

    2 0 2 1

    2 0 2 3

    2 0 2 5

    2 0 2 7

    2 0 2 9

    2 0 3 1

    2 0 3 3

    2 0 3 5

    Years

    Q u a n

    t i t y ( M T O E )

    0

    0.2

    0.4

    0.6

    0.8

    1

    1.2

    1.4

    2 0 0 9

    2 0 1 1

    2 0 1 3

    2 0 1 5

    2 0 1 7

    2 0 1 9

    2 0 2 1

    2 0 2 3

    2 0 2 5

    2 0 2 7

    2 0 2 9

    2 0 3 1

    2 0 3 3

    2 0 3 5

    Years

    Q u a n

    t i t y ( M T O E )

    0

    0.1

    0.2

    0.3

    0.4

    0.5

    0.6

    0.7

    0.8

    0.9

    1

    2 0 0 9

    2 0 1 1

    2 0 1 3

    2 0 1 5

    2 0 1 7

    2 0 1 9

    2 0 2 1

    2 0 2 3

    2 0 2 5

    2 0 2 7

    2 0 2 9

    2 0 3 1

    2 0 3 3

    2 0 3 5

    Yea rs

    Q u a n t i t y

    ( M T O E )

    0

    0.5

    1

    1.5

    2

    2.5

    2 0 0 9

    2 0 1 1

    2 0 1 3

    2 0 1 5

    2 0 1 7

    2 0 1 9

    2 0 2 1

    2 0 2 3

    2 0 2 5

    2 0 2 7

    2 0 2 9

    2 0 3 1

    2 0 3 3

    2 0 3 5

    Years

    Q u a n

    t i t y

    ( M T O E )

    Crude Oil Projections in Baluchistan Crude Oil Projections in KPK

    Crude Oil Projections in Punjab Crude Oil Projections in Sindh

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    Natural Gas Projections in Pakistan

    Natural Gas Projection

    0

    0.02

    0.04

    0.06

    0.08

    0.1

    0.12

    2 0 0 9

    2 0 1 1

    2 0 1 3

    2 0 1 5

    2 0 1 7

    2 0 1 9

    2 0 2 1

    2 0 2 3

    2 0 2 5

    2 0 2 7

    2 0 2 9

    2 0 3 1

    2 0 3 3

    2 0 3 5

    Yea rs

    Q u a n

    t i t y

    ( M T O E )

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    Natural Gas Projection Province wise

    Natural Gas Projections in Baluchistan Natural Gas Projections in KPK

    Natural Gas Projections in Punjab Natural Gas Projections in Sindh

    0

    0.01

    0.02

    0.03

    0.04

    0.05

    0.06

    0.07

    0.08

    2 0 0 9

    2 0 1 1

    2 0 1 3

    2 0 1 5

    2 0 1 7

    2 0 1 9

    2 0 2 1

    2 0 2 3

    2 0 2 5

    2 0 2 7

    2 0 2 9

    2 0 3 1

    2 0 3 3

    2 0 3 5

    Years

    Q u a n

    t i t y

    ( M T O E )

    0

    0.005

    0.01

    0.015

    0.02

    0.0250.03

    0.035

    2 0 0 9

    2 0 1 1

    2 0 1 3

    2 0 1 5

    2 0 1 7

    2 0 1 9

    2 0 2 1

    2 0 2 3

    2 0 2 5

    2 0 2 7

    2 0 2 9

    2 0 3 1

    2 0 3 3

    2 0 3 5

    Yea rs

    Q u a n

    t i t y ( M T O E )

    00.0005

    0.0010.0015

    0.0020.0025

    0.0030.0035

    0.0040.0045

    0.005

    2 0 0 9

    2 0 1 1

    2 0 1 3

    2 0 1 5

    2 0 1 7

    2 0 1 9

    2 0 2 1

    2 0 2 3

    2 0 2 5

    2 0 2 7

    2 0 2 9

    2 0 3 1

    2 0 3 3

    2 0 3 5

    Yea rs

    Q u

    a n t i t y

    ( M T O E )

    0

    0.0001

    0.0002

    0.0003

    0.0004

    0.0005

    0.0006

    0.0007

    0.0008

    2 0 0 9

    2 0 1 1

    2 0 1 3

    2 0 1 5

    2 0 1 7

    2 0 1 9

    2 0 2 1

    2 0 2 3

    2 0 2 5

    2 0 2 7

    2 0 2 9

    2 0 3 1

    2 0 3 3

    2 0 3 5

    Years

    Q u a n

    t i t y ( M T O E )

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    1. It is evident that in order to meet the future demands ofenergy it is important to build new reservoir of energy asthe conventional sources are depleting at abrupt pace.

    2. The dependency on crude oil should be minimized in order

    to secure energy security & import of oil which is veryexpensive.

    3. The vastly available coal reserves should be aggressivelyused as energy carrier in the future.

    4. There is a need to restructure the potential of hydro, solar,wind, agricultural residuals; biomass waste and Municipalwaste so that availability of low cost energy is feasible.

    Future Planning