eretail europe 2014- dave booth - cardinal path
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eRetail Europe 2014, Cardinal Path, Dave BoothTRANSCRIPT
Turning Data into Value: Case Studies in ROPO (Research Online Purchase Offline) and LTV (Lifetime Value)
David BoothFounding & Senior Partner, Cardinal Path
Percent of CMOs reporting underpreparedness
Percentage of projects using marketing analytics in companies
Data & Analytics Maturity
Balanced growth enables value
In plan, in budget, top down support
In plan, in budget, top down support
How can we better allocate media spend?How can we better
allocate media spend?
Add CRM, media & analytics data
Add CRM, media & analytics dataInternal staff, hire
specialist agencyInternal staff, hire specialist agency
Clear project plan, deliverables & phasesClear project plan,
deliverables & phases
Existing stack, clean the data, SAS
Existing stack, clean the data, SAS
Traditional approach
Cost/Lead Volume Lead Value Value Cost ROI
Online - Search $4.00 400 $10.00 $4,000.00 $1,600.00 150%
Online - Display $5.75 300 $10.00 $3,000.00 $1,725.00 74%
Offline - Outdoor $9.00 100 $10.00 $1,000.00 $900.00 11%
Offline - Print $7.00 350 $10.00 $3,500.00 $2,450.00 43%
Offline - TV $6.50 700 $10.00 $7,000.00 $4,550.00 54%
But all customers are not the same…
Customer data
Average selling price, frequency, etc…
Who can STAY a customer (churn)?
Just like coffee drinkers…
…not all students provide the same value
All students add value…but some add more than others
7%60% of revenue 29% of
students
40% of revenue
71% of students
29%
71%
Who are these students?How can we attract more of them?
Who are these students?How much are we spending to acquire them?
“Sticky” Students “Risky” Students
Often women, – Live in higher income zip codes– Maintain >= 3.0 GPA– AU= Masters and/or Doctorate
degree– BM= Diploma– AU Age =(>23) – BM Age =(>30)
These students are:– 44% more valuable from a LTV
measure because:– they are 68% less likely to churn
Often younger (<23) – Live in lower income zip codes– Near the ground schools– Associate and/or Bachelor degrees
(AU & BM) – Struggle to maintain > 2.0 GPA
These students:– Account for a greater proportion of
revenue leakage– Often do not make it out of year 1
GPA
Days Enrolled 1 2 3 4
30 99% 92% 64% 23%
60 98% 91% 62% 21%
90 98% 90% 60% 20%
180 98% 88% 54% 16%
270 97% 85% 48% 13%
360 96% 81% 41% 10%
540 94% 72% 30% 6%
720 90% 60% 20% 4%
Increasing GPA
Incr
easi
ng T
enur
e
Modeling & predicting churn
Influencing factors can be modeled
Female
Age (+)Doctorate
Master
Zip Income (+)
Legal
Health
Media Arts
Education
Behavioral
CertificateBusiness
DiplomaAssociate
Bachelor
Male Demo
Degree
Program
Location
But we’ve got great conversion rates!
Target young, low income, close to campus!
…and you’ll target your least valuable students
Optimize media for the RIGHT audiences
Research Online, Purchase Offline (ROPO)
You’ve got to show data to get more budget!
You’ve got to show data to get more budget!
How can we demonstrate that
we’re driving offline sales?
How can we demonstrate that
we’re driving offline sales?
Online > Offline intent modeling
Online > Offline intent modelingInternal staff, hire
specialist agencyInternal staff, hire specialist agency
Tried & true data science techniquesTried & true data
science techniques
POS/in-store, GA Premium, Doubleclick, BigQuery, ETL,
POS/in-store, GA Premium, Doubleclick, BigQuery, ETL,
Broken link…
Digital investment short-changed
Over-inflating contribution of
offline sales staff
Media mix decisions misguided by
inaccurate data
>25% of the valueof digital media
was hidden
The approach
Google Analytics
Premium
Doubleclick DCM
BigQuery
Leveraged powerful tools to ingest
massive data sets from multiple
sources
Cleaned, joined, and reduced data to
create one seamless report
Scripts to allow for monthly processing
Extract, transform, load
AutomateTools Data
Governance & scope bridges gaps
EDW GA Premium3rd – Party
Sales ReportingData
FullConsumerJourney+ + =
Using data to drive ACTION:
over 50%
True depiction of customer behavior across channels enables:
• Media mix optimization & modeling• Better forecasting models• Adjustment of staff compensation models
http://bit.ly/USCellular
Re-classification of
of activations formerly classified as offline-sourced
Start with a basic assessment
bit.ly/oammbit.ly/oamm
Thank you!Questions & answers
+Dave Booth@davidabooth