ULSAN

DUMAI

CARTAGENA

YAROSLAVL OMSK

PORTOSPAIN

RUSSIA

PORTUGALSOUTH KOREA

mid-Mar 2018

mid-Jul 2018

Feb 2018Feb 2018

early Sep 2018

Apr 2018

end Jun 2018

early Aug 2018

Mar 2018end Mar-early Apr 2018

mid-Oct 2018

May 2018

38500 bblday

9000 bblday

300000 tonnesyear100000 tonnes

year (GIII)

630000 tonnesyear

185000 tonnesyear

Scheduled maintenance

Scheduled maintenance

Scheduled maintenanceScheduled

maintenance

Scheduled maintenance

Scheduled maintenance

Indonesia

KEY REFINERY OUTAGES IN 2017

EUROPErsquoS BASE OIL PRICES REVVED THEIR ENGINES IN 2017 WILL UPWARD PRESSURE CONTINUE IN 2018

QATAR

ULSANCARTAGENA

LIVORNO

SPAINITALY

SOUTH KOREAFeb 2017

May 2017

Jun 2017

mid-Oct 2017

Mar 2017

Jun 2017

Jul 2017

630000 tonnesyear

630000 tonnesyear

38500 bblday

Force majeure declared amid flooding in Livorno Site closed to fix

18 gasifier units Ramped up production from end March onwards

Scheduled maintenance

Scheduled maintenance

mid-Sep 2017

SCHEDULED MAINTENANCE IN 2018

Refinery outages supported the price of base oils in 2017 With expected maintenance in 2018 this infographic looks ahead to determine whether the trend will continue

Will the presence of Shellrsquos GTL plant in Qatar result in a more balanced year for the base oils markets

Group III

Group III

Group IIIII

Group III+

Shutdown date

Capacity Reason

Estimated restart date

Group III

Group III

Group III

Group IIIII

Group I

Shutdown date

Capacity Reason

Estimated restart date

Group IIII

Refinery maintenance season

USDtonne

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

Jan 2018Nov 2017Sep 2017Jul 2017Mar 2017

Brightstock FOB Europe Export

SN500 FOB Europe Export

SN150 FOB Europe Export

Gasoil Low-Sulphur Vacuum FOB Rotterdam

Gasoil High-Sulphur Vacuum FOB Rotterdam

Group III 6 cSt FCA ARA Domestic Truck

EURtonne

675

700

725

750

775

800

825

Jan 2018Nov 2017Sep 2017Jul 2017May 2017Mar 2017

Plant outage

Jan 2017 Jan 2018

Crude Oil Price Average Group III Prices

+23

~$56bbl ~$69bbl

BFOE FOB UKNorway

Europe Group I Export Prices

PRICE MOVES AND KEY PRESSURE POINTS

FIND OUT HOW ICIS CAN HELP YOUR BUSINESS STRATEGY TODAY

PRICE REPORTSOur independent price reports provide objective and trusted intelligence for the base oil markets

Receive updates and information on reliable price assessments and analyses

Compare price histories and view comprehensive commentaries on the changing trade patterns and trends

Understand the key price drivers and market conditions and settle your contract prices more confidently

PARAFFIN WAX MARKETWe provide regional coverage of paraffin wax markets in Asia Europe and the US

Understand price drivers and fluctuations

Develop internal analytical models

Inform settlements and contracts and negotiate with confidence

VICKY ELLIS MARKETS EDITOR

Vicky Ellis is a markets editor at ICIS covering European markets for base oils methanol fuel and industrial ethanol Her previous newsroom experience writing about the energy industry took her to power stations German coalmines and even down Londonrsquos sewers It also saw her host webinars and conferences for the B2B energy market

SARAH TRINDERSENIOR EDITOR

MANAGER

Sarah Trinder has worked at ICIS for over seven years covering a range of markets including base oils paraffin wax shipping biofuels glycerine and jet fuel among others She has been covering the base oils market for nearly three years now with particular focus on the export markets

WEEKLY ATLANTIC BASIN FEEDSTOCKS REPORTCovering Europe and the US receive numerous price assessments including

Updates on crude naphtha gasoline ethane propane butane LPG NGL VGO fuel oil and cracked fuel

Expert commentary on price movements refinery news demand patterns and economic or political updates impacting the market

KEY QUESTIONS FOR 2018

Will scheduled maintenance at key refineries bring tighter base oil supply Will crude oil and vacuum gasoil feedstock fluctuations outweigh market fundamentals How will the completion of the ExxonMobil Rotterdam GII plant disrupt GIGIII markets What lies in store for spread between GIII approved and unapproved product

Refinery maintenance season

USDtonne

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

Jan 2018Nov 2017Sep 2017Jul 2017Mar 2017

Brightstock FOB Europe Export

SN500 FOB Europe Export

SN150 FOB Europe Export

Gasoil Low-Sulphur Vacuum FOB Rotterdam

Gasoil High-Sulphur Vacuum FOB Rotterdam

Group III 6 cSt FCA ARA Domestic Truck

EURtonne

675

700

725

750

775

800

825

Jan 2018Nov 2017Sep 2017Jul 2017May 2017Mar 2017

Plant outage

Jan 2017 Jan 2018

Crude Oil Price Average Group III Prices

+23

~$56bbl ~$69bbl

BFOE FOB UKNorway

Europe Group I Export Prices

PRICE MOVES AND KEY PRESSURE POINTS

FIND OUT HOW ICIS CAN HELP YOUR BUSINESS STRATEGY TODAY

PRICE REPORTSOur independent price reports provide objective and trusted intelligence for the base oil markets

Receive updates and information on reliable price assessments and analyses

Compare price histories and view comprehensive commentaries on the changing trade patterns and trends

Understand the key price drivers and market conditions and settle your contract prices more confidently

PARAFFIN WAX MARKETWe provide regional coverage of paraffin wax markets in Asia Europe and the US

Understand price drivers and fluctuations

Develop internal analytical models

Inform settlements and contracts and negotiate with confidence

VICKY ELLIS MARKETS EDITOR

Vicky Ellis is a markets editor at ICIS covering European markets for base oils methanol fuel and industrial ethanol Her previous newsroom experience writing about the energy industry took her to power stations German coalmines and even down Londonrsquos sewers It also saw her host webinars and conferences for the B2B energy market

SARAH TRINDERSENIOR EDITOR

MANAGER

Sarah Trinder has worked at ICIS for over seven years covering a range of markets including base oils paraffin wax shipping biofuels glycerine and jet fuel among others She has been covering the base oils market for nearly three years now with particular focus on the export markets

WEEKLY ATLANTIC BASIN FEEDSTOCKS REPORTCovering Europe and the US receive numerous price assessments including

Updates on crude naphtha gasoline ethane propane butane LPG NGL VGO fuel oil and cracked fuel

Expert commentary on price movements refinery news demand patterns and economic or political updates impacting the market

KEY QUESTIONS FOR 2018

Will scheduled maintenance at key refineries bring tighter base oil supply Will crude oil and vacuum gasoil feedstock fluctuations outweigh market fundamentals How will the completion of the ExxonMobil Rotterdam GII plant disrupt GIGIII markets What lies in store for spread between GIII approved and unapproved product