f. bacchini, r. golinelli, c. jona-lasinio - il modello macroeconomico italiano per l’energia e...

SESSIONE VI MODELLI DI PREVISIONE A BREVE E MEDIO TERMINE

Il modello macroeconomico italiano perl’energia e l’ambiente: 2E-MeMo-It

Relatore: Fabio Bacchini

Fabio Bacchini, Roberto Golinelli, Cecilia Jona-Lasinio

GIORNATE DELLA RICERCA IN ISTAT | 10-11 NOVEMBRE 2014

Outline

• Provide policymakers with a flexible macro-econometric framework to evaluate the impact of energy policies on the Italian economy

• Modelling energy and environment: theoretical background

• The development of 2E-MeMo-It• Preliminary results• Next steps

GIORNATE DELLA RICERCA IN ISTAT | 10-11 NOVEMBRE 2014Il modello macroeconomico italiano per l’energia e l’ambiente: 2E-M | Fabio Bacchini

MeMo-It characteristics

CGEM are widely used to analyze the economic impact of energy and

environmental policies since they often account for a large number of sectors

GREEN (11 sectors), GEMINI-E3 (18 settori), GEM-E3 (14 settori),

IMACLIM-S (10 settori)

very restrictive assumption of perfect price flexibility that insures full and

optimal use of resources and guaranties the equilibrium

Neo-Keynesian models provide a more truthful representation of the actual

functioning of the economy accounting explicitly for the sluggish adjustments

of prices and quantities do not allow an high degree of disaggregation


Cointegration analysis:results


Frontier that reflects different optimal composition between economic theory and data (Pagan, 2003)




– New-keynesian approach: economic growth is driven from demand side in the short-run

– The potential output is the long-run equilibrium

– In the short-run prices drive the disequilibrium

65 behavioural equations87 identity65 exogenous9 scenario variables (excahange rate, brent, world trade)


• identification of the main blocks: supply side (potential output), consumption, price, foreign sector, government, labour markets, Phillips curve

• preliminary estimation of the single block (2 stages)

• final estimation of the model (3 stages) looking at the quality of the forecast in the sample

• The dynamic features of the model have been evaluated both by means of ad hoc exercises that shock exogenous variables compared to the solution pattern and by forecast accuracy in the sample



Measurement issues


Green growth studies – OECD (2011)


Data


Empirical strategy: intermediate energy inputs

where Y is GDP, P are the prices of intermediate energy inputs and DD isthe domestic demand. All variables are at time t. Then Pe

t is assumed to be a function of domestic and international prices of energy products as well as of specific fiscal variables.

where superscripts refer to individual energy assets: IMP (Importedenergy products) and T (taxes)


Empirical strategy: final consumption


Preliminary results: intermediate energy inputs


Preliminary results: final consumption


Preliminary results: prices of intermediates


Preliminary results: prices of final energy products


Transmission channels

Energy prices affect

• Firm investment choices

• Labor demand

• Consumption function


Transmission channels: Investment


Next steps

1. Simulation of energy policy scenarios

2. Model performance in the long run

3. Forecasting performances

4. Development of the environmental module (CO2)


f. bacchini, r. golinelli, c. jona-lasinio - il modello macroeconomico italiano per l’energia e...

Education

stepsgiornate della

resultsgiornate della

samplegiornate della

datagiornate della ricerca

fabio bacchinifabio

t taxesgiornate della

preliminary results

individual energy assets