femsa ceo and cfo roadshow presentation...feb 27, 2007  · (1) industry includes femsa cerveza and...

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CEO and CFO Roadshow February 2007

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Page 1: FEMSA CEO and CFO Roadshow Presentation...Feb 27, 2007  · (1) Industry includes FEMSA Cerveza and Grupo Modelobeer sales volume in Mexico only. Data from company filings. Industry

CEO and CFO RoadshowFebruary 2007

Page 2: FEMSA CEO and CFO Roadshow Presentation...Feb 27, 2007  · (1) Industry includes FEMSA Cerveza and Grupo Modelobeer sales volume in Mexico only. Data from company filings. Industry

2

Safe Harbor Statement

During this presentation management may discuss certain forward-

looking statements concerning FEMSA’s future performance that should

be considered as good faith estimates made by the Company. These

forward-looking statements reflect management expectations and are

based upon currently available data. Actual results are subject to

future events and uncertainties, which could materially impact FEMSA’s

actual performance.

Page 3: FEMSA CEO and CFO Roadshow Presentation...Feb 27, 2007  · (1) Industry includes FEMSA Cerveza and Grupo Modelobeer sales volume in Mexico only. Data from company filings. Industry

3

Delivering Growth

FEMSA Total Revenue (US$ million)

FEMSA EBITDA(US$ million)

11,625 2,316

1,298

5,062

Note: Figures in Mexican pesos converted to US dollars at the respective year-end exchange rate.

CAGR 23%

2002 2003 2004 2005 20062002 2003 2004 2005 2006

CAGR 16%

Page 4: FEMSA CEO and CFO Roadshow Presentation...Feb 27, 2007  · (1) Industry includes FEMSA Cerveza and Grupo Modelobeer sales volume in Mexico only. Data from company filings. Industry

4

Delivering Cash Generation

Free Cash Flow(1)

(US$ million)893

Note: Figures in Mexican pesos converted to US dollars at the respective year-end exchange rate.(1) Free Cash Flow = EBITDA - (Capex + Taxes + Net Interest Expense) - Change Working Capital.(2) Extraordinary Tax Reimbursement.

69 39 48 60 94

747 731

118(2) FCF

497

397

135

Dividend

2002N.A.

20031.8x

20041.9x

20051.2x

20061.3x

2007Net Debt/EBITDA

Page 5: FEMSA CEO and CFO Roadshow Presentation...Feb 27, 2007  · (1) Industry includes FEMSA Cerveza and Grupo Modelobeer sales volume in Mexico only. Data from company filings. Industry

5

The Right Business Model...

EBITDA: US$ 2,316 millionTotal Revenue: US$ 11,625 million

100% 100%

PubliclyHeld

14.7% 31.6% 53.7%

28% 28%

44%

10%

40%

50%

Note: Information as of December 31, 2006.

Page 6: FEMSA CEO and CFO Roadshow Presentation...Feb 27, 2007  · (1) Industry includes FEMSA Cerveza and Grupo Modelobeer sales volume in Mexico only. Data from company filings. Industry

6

... Best Positioned to Capture Opportunities

Beer inCentral America

Consolidationin Mexico

Integration andConsolidation in Brazil

Beer inArgentina

• Compete successfully

• New opportunities

– Beer

– Soft Drinks

Page 7: FEMSA CEO and CFO Roadshow Presentation...Feb 27, 2007  · (1) Industry includes FEMSA Cerveza and Grupo Modelobeer sales volume in Mexico only. Data from company filings. Industry

7

The Right Approach to Dynamic Markets

Challenges

• CSD’s in Central Mexico

• Pepsi and b-brands

• Beer pricing in Mexico

• Raw material pressure

Opportunities

• Grow non-carb segment

• Integrate businesses

• New territories

• Invest in brands

Skills

• Evolve business model

• Manage complexity

• Ability to execute

• Deploy investment

• Anticipate trends

SustainedGrowth

Page 8: FEMSA CEO and CFO Roadshow Presentation...Feb 27, 2007  · (1) Industry includes FEMSA Cerveza and Grupo Modelobeer sales volume in Mexico only. Data from company filings. Industry

Learning to Think as “One”

• Shared services

• Collaborative purchasing

• IT infrastructure

• Increase coordination among functional teams

• Processes and IT applications

• Explore join production

• Colle

Driving synergies among the business units

• Collective learning is continuous

Page 9: FEMSA CEO and CFO Roadshow Presentation...Feb 27, 2007  · (1) Industry includes FEMSA Cerveza and Grupo Modelobeer sales volume in Mexico only. Data from company filings. Industry

9

Recent Key Achievements

Operating

• Banner year for top-line growth in beverage operations

• US beer export growth outpacing category

• Oxxo top-line and infrastructure growth on track

Strategic

• Meaningful entry into Brazilian beer market

• Established long-term framework with The Coca-Cola Company

• Purchase of incremental 8% stake in KOF

• Joint acquisition of Jugos del Valle with the Coca-Cola system

Page 10: FEMSA CEO and CFO Roadshow Presentation...Feb 27, 2007  · (1) Industry includes FEMSA Cerveza and Grupo Modelobeer sales volume in Mexico only. Data from company filings. Industry

10

The Road Ahead…

• Evolution of business model

• Profitable growth across businesses

– Coca-Cola FEMSA

– FEMSA Cerveza

– Oxxo

• Asset utilization

• Improving returns on invested capital

Page 11: FEMSA CEO and CFO Roadshow Presentation...Feb 27, 2007  · (1) Industry includes FEMSA Cerveza and Grupo Modelobeer sales volume in Mexico only. Data from company filings. Industry

11

Return of Invested Capital

ROIC(%)

Per Unit Business(%)

19.713.317.218.012.1

11.19.9 9.99.89.4

10.19.2

10.89.49.1

11.0

2004 2005 20062000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Cerveza KOF Comercio

Note: ROIC calculation is based on the methodology of Stern, Stewart & Co. using inflation adjusted figures for each country where we operate.

Page 12: FEMSA CEO and CFO Roadshow Presentation...Feb 27, 2007  · (1) Industry includes FEMSA Cerveza and Grupo Modelobeer sales volume in Mexico only. Data from company filings. Industry

12

Evolution of FMX

Growth is key going forward5-Year Share Price

Appreciation

02/26/2007Price US$ 118.80Market Cap US$ 14.2 bn

01/02/2002Price US$ 35.00

Market Cap US$ 3.7 bn

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Source: Bloomberg and Annual Reports.

Page 13: FEMSA CEO and CFO Roadshow Presentation...Feb 27, 2007  · (1) Industry includes FEMSA Cerveza and Grupo Modelobeer sales volume in Mexico only. Data from company filings. Industry

Evolving with Consumer Preferences

Page 14: FEMSA CEO and CFO Roadshow Presentation...Feb 27, 2007  · (1) Industry includes FEMSA Cerveza and Grupo Modelobeer sales volume in Mexico only. Data from company filings. Industry

14

Recent Highlights

• Mexico

– Three consecutive years gaining share

– Brand health indicators at all-time high

– Top-line driven earnings growth

• United States

– Double-digit volume growth

– Greater emphasis on brand development

• Brazil

– Business turnaround on track

– Long-term profitable growth objective

Page 15: FEMSA CEO and CFO Roadshow Presentation...Feb 27, 2007  · (1) Industry includes FEMSA Cerveza and Grupo Modelobeer sales volume in Mexico only. Data from company filings. Industry

15

Mexico Beer Industry has Strengthened

Initiatives

• Innovation

• Greater segmentation

• Improved execution

Economic momentum

Outcome

• Accelerated growth

• Increasing relevance

• Higher barriers to entry

Beer Consumption Per Capita (Liters)

GDP Growth (%)

51 52 53 55 5702 03 04 05 06E

Liters 5101Year

01 – 03CAGR0.8%

04 – 06CAGR3.8%

0.0 1.4 4.2 3.0 4.002 03 04 05 06E

GDP 0.801Year

01 – 03Avg Gwth

0.7%

04 – 06Avg Gwth

3.2%

Note: Beer Consumption per Capita from Mexican Institute of Statistics and FEMSA Cerveza's estimates. GDP Growth % based on constant price GDP year-on-year changes from International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook Database,September 2006 and Analyst Estimations for 2007.

Page 16: FEMSA CEO and CFO Roadshow Presentation...Feb 27, 2007  · (1) Industry includes FEMSA Cerveza and Grupo Modelobeer sales volume in Mexico only. Data from company filings. Industry

16

Share Gains with Strong Pricing

Domestic Price (MXP)

Domestic Volume Growth vs.Industry(1) (%)

5.6

Market share at 43.7%

3 years outgrowing the industry

(1) Industry includes FEMSA Cerveza and Grupo Modelo beer sales volume in Mexico only. Data from company filings.

FEMSAIndustry

Real 941 974 +3.6%Nominal 904 974 +7.8%

Price per hl 2005 2006 % Chg

5.44.9

4.4

3.8

2.6

2004 2005 2006

Page 17: FEMSA CEO and CFO Roadshow Presentation...Feb 27, 2007  · (1) Industry includes FEMSA Cerveza and Grupo Modelobeer sales volume in Mexico only. Data from company filings. Industry

17

Improved Brand Preference: Tecate Light

• Consumer preference research brand reposition

• High marketing impact

– “A great tasting beer that leaves room to drink more”

• Leader in light category

Brand Value Index % Share in Domestic Market46.3

Note: FEMSA estimates.

20.1

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

1.05%

5.95%

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Page 18: FEMSA CEO and CFO Roadshow Presentation...Feb 27, 2007  · (1) Industry includes FEMSA Cerveza and Grupo Modelobeer sales volume in Mexico only. Data from company filings. Industry

18

Growth Model for Mexico

• Drive top-line

– Volume growth with real pricing

– Innovation & increased value of core brands

• Increase efficiency to offset raw materials pressure

– Aluminum impact expected to moderate in medium term

• Maintain profitability

– Continue to invest in brands

– Strengthen competitive position in market

Page 19: FEMSA CEO and CFO Roadshow Presentation...Feb 27, 2007  · (1) Industry includes FEMSA Cerveza and Grupo Modelobeer sales volume in Mexico only. Data from company filings. Industry

19

Exports to USA: New Heineken Agreement

Vol. Growth of FEMSA Exportsvs. U.S. Beer Industry (%)

2007 Focus

• Dos Equis new campaign

• Tecate Light launch15.3

14.6

8.17.2

1.7-0.4

2005 2006

FEMSAU.S. Import CategoryU.S. Industry

Source: U.S. Beer Industry data from The Beer Institute for 2005 and 2006 as reported in December 2006.(U.S. represents just over 90% of FEMSA’s exports).

Page 20: FEMSA CEO and CFO Roadshow Presentation...Feb 27, 2007  · (1) Industry includes FEMSA Cerveza and Grupo Modelobeer sales volume in Mexico only. Data from company filings. Industry

20

Brazil: Groundwork for Long-Term Sustainable Profitable Growth

FEMSA Cerveza Brazil Market Share(%)

Main areas of focus:

• Develop comprehensive brand portfolio

• Reinvest profits in marketing

• Market intelligence / one system

• Commercial platform

• Model for bottler alignment

Recent achievements:

• Relaunch of Kaiser

• National launch of Sol

• Seven months gaining share

15.1

12.2

10.8

9.2

7.48.69.0

01/06 06/06 12/062002 2003 2004 2005

Source: Nielsen.

Page 21: FEMSA CEO and CFO Roadshow Presentation...Feb 27, 2007  · (1) Industry includes FEMSA Cerveza and Grupo Modelobeer sales volume in Mexico only. Data from company filings. Industry

Building a System

Page 22: FEMSA CEO and CFO Roadshow Presentation...Feb 27, 2007  · (1) Industry includes FEMSA Cerveza and Grupo Modelobeer sales volume in Mexico only. Data from company filings. Industry

22

Grow, Build, Operate...

% of FEMSA Cerveza Domestic BeerSales in Oxxo

3.94.5

5.4

7.3

8.6

9.9

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Top-line growth of over 20%

• +700 new stores per year

• Creating new profit streams

Building infrastructure

• Segmentation

• Direct distribution

• Information systems

Operating excellence

Page 23: FEMSA CEO and CFO Roadshow Presentation...Feb 27, 2007  · (1) Industry includes FEMSA Cerveza and Grupo Modelobeer sales volume in Mexico only. Data from company filings. Industry

23

Plenty of Room for Growth

12,000 Oxxo’s by 2015Oxxo Penetration Level by Population

JaliscoPopulation: 6,800,000

Oxxo Stores: 326

Nuevo LeónPopulation: 4,200,000

Oxxo Stores: 510

Valle de MexicoPopulation: 22,800,000

Oxxo Stores: 582

Source: INEGI and FEMSA estimates.

Page 24: FEMSA CEO and CFO Roadshow Presentation...Feb 27, 2007  · (1) Industry includes FEMSA Cerveza and Grupo Modelobeer sales volume in Mexico only. Data from company filings. Industry

24

Building a Strong Infrastructure

• Six distribution centers servicing 40% of sales

• Store segmentation based on communities and consumers

• Oracle financial and replenishment system deployed in 2007

• Opportunity to growunderpenetrated categories

– Fast food

– Services

SegmentationTechnologyDistribution

Page 25: FEMSA CEO and CFO Roadshow Presentation...Feb 27, 2007  · (1) Industry includes FEMSA Cerveza and Grupo Modelobeer sales volume in Mexico only. Data from company filings. Industry

Capturing Growth Across our Markets

Page 26: FEMSA CEO and CFO Roadshow Presentation...Feb 27, 2007  · (1) Industry includes FEMSA Cerveza and Grupo Modelobeer sales volume in Mexico only. Data from company filings. Industry

26

CSD Growth Driven By Brand Coca-Cola...

CSDs Sales Volume(mm UC)

1,695

58%

85%

78%

1,604

1,549

1,493

2003(1) 2004 2005 2006CAGR 03 – 06: 4.3%

FlavorsColasTotal

(1) Includes full-year sales volume of our original territories and our new territories acquired from Panamco.

Page 27: FEMSA CEO and CFO Roadshow Presentation...Feb 27, 2007  · (1) Industry includes FEMSA Cerveza and Grupo Modelobeer sales volume in Mexico only. Data from company filings. Industry

27

Non-carbonated segment offers greatest potential

Non-Carb Sales Volume Growth(mm UC)

Non-Carb Sales Volumeas % of Total Volume(1)

32.8 4.8 4.7

22.5

19.018.2

2.2

1.21.0 0.9

2003 2004 2005 2006 Brazil Colombia MexicoArgentina Venezuela Central

AmericaCAGR 03 – 06: 21.7%

(1) For the year 2006.

Page 28: FEMSA CEO and CFO Roadshow Presentation...Feb 27, 2007  · (1) Industry includes FEMSA Cerveza and Grupo Modelobeer sales volume in Mexico only. Data from company filings. Industry

28

Providing Attractive Growth Opportunities

• The Coca-Cola Company will provide additional marketing support for the carbonated and non-carbonated beverage portfolio

• A new business model in the non-carbonated beverages segment

• Potential expansion of our footprint within Latin America and in other markets

Page 29: FEMSA CEO and CFO Roadshow Presentation...Feb 27, 2007  · (1) Industry includes FEMSA Cerveza and Grupo Modelobeer sales volume in Mexico only. Data from company filings. Industry

29

New Joint Venture for Non Carbonated Beverages with Jugos del Valle

• KOF leadership in NCB

– Expected growth in low double digits

– #1 in Brazil and #2 in Mexico packaged juice

– KOF to manage operations

• Increase top line

• Capture synergies across value chain

• Leverage distribution network in Mexico and Brazil

• Future participation of other bottlers in JV

Transaction Value US$ 470 MM or 1.1x 2006 Revenues

50%50%

Page 30: FEMSA CEO and CFO Roadshow Presentation...Feb 27, 2007  · (1) Industry includes FEMSA Cerveza and Grupo Modelobeer sales volume in Mexico only. Data from company filings. Industry

JV Product Portfolio

Produces sells and distributes products in 8 different categories...

Juices andNectars

Juicebased products Orangeade CSDs Others

Mex

ico

• Del Valle • Kultai• Valvita• Blue Shot

• Clam Club

Bra

zil

Oth

ers

Page 31: FEMSA CEO and CFO Roadshow Presentation...Feb 27, 2007  · (1) Industry includes FEMSA Cerveza and Grupo Modelobeer sales volume in Mexico only. Data from company filings. Industry
Page 32: FEMSA CEO and CFO Roadshow Presentation...Feb 27, 2007  · (1) Industry includes FEMSA Cerveza and Grupo Modelobeer sales volume in Mexico only. Data from company filings. Industry

32

EBITDA Reconciliation By Division

In US$ million1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

FEMSA ConsolidatedIncome From OperationsDepreciationAmortization and OtherEBITDA

440124107670

479121115715

627175143946

736202170

1,108

948204177

1,329

907209181

1,298

1,078233232

1,543

1,238271302

1,812

1,455387260

2,103

1,599372344

2,316

FEMSA CervezaIncome From OperationsDepreciationAmortization and OtherEBITDA

2827935

396

2817560

416

3689981

548

372111111593

414123126663

390128153670

379126166671

426132182740

500138200838

544152218913

Coca-Cola FEMSAIncome From OperationsDepreciationAmortization and OtherEBITDA

1503360

243

1613448

243

2175856

330

3057152

428

4687034

572

4255041

515

5978659

742

69111197

899

811122114

1,047

869138116

1,124

FEMSA ComercioIncome From OperationsDepreciationAmortization and OtherEBITDA

734

14

945

18

2454

33

2976

42

3388

49

4799

64

62121285

821921

122

1183026

174

1473834

219

Nota: All other annual figures are converted into US$ for the respective year end exchange rate.