femsa ceo and cfo roadshow presentation...feb 27, 2007 · (1) industry includes femsa cerveza and...
TRANSCRIPT
CEO and CFO RoadshowFebruary 2007
2
Safe Harbor Statement
During this presentation management may discuss certain forward-
looking statements concerning FEMSA’s future performance that should
be considered as good faith estimates made by the Company. These
forward-looking statements reflect management expectations and are
based upon currently available data. Actual results are subject to
future events and uncertainties, which could materially impact FEMSA’s
actual performance.
3
Delivering Growth
FEMSA Total Revenue (US$ million)
FEMSA EBITDA(US$ million)
11,625 2,316
1,298
5,062
Note: Figures in Mexican pesos converted to US dollars at the respective year-end exchange rate.
CAGR 23%
2002 2003 2004 2005 20062002 2003 2004 2005 2006
CAGR 16%
4
Delivering Cash Generation
Free Cash Flow(1)
(US$ million)893
Note: Figures in Mexican pesos converted to US dollars at the respective year-end exchange rate.(1) Free Cash Flow = EBITDA - (Capex + Taxes + Net Interest Expense) - Change Working Capital.(2) Extraordinary Tax Reimbursement.
69 39 48 60 94
747 731
118(2) FCF
497
397
135
Dividend
2002N.A.
20031.8x
20041.9x
20051.2x
20061.3x
2007Net Debt/EBITDA
5
The Right Business Model...
EBITDA: US$ 2,316 millionTotal Revenue: US$ 11,625 million
100% 100%
PubliclyHeld
14.7% 31.6% 53.7%
28% 28%
44%
10%
40%
50%
Note: Information as of December 31, 2006.
6
... Best Positioned to Capture Opportunities
Beer inCentral America
Consolidationin Mexico
Integration andConsolidation in Brazil
Beer inArgentina
• Compete successfully
• New opportunities
– Beer
– Soft Drinks
7
The Right Approach to Dynamic Markets
Challenges
• CSD’s in Central Mexico
• Pepsi and b-brands
• Beer pricing in Mexico
• Raw material pressure
Opportunities
• Grow non-carb segment
• Integrate businesses
• New territories
• Invest in brands
Skills
• Evolve business model
• Manage complexity
• Ability to execute
• Deploy investment
• Anticipate trends
SustainedGrowth
Learning to Think as “One”
• Shared services
• Collaborative purchasing
• IT infrastructure
• Increase coordination among functional teams
• Processes and IT applications
• Explore join production
• Colle
Driving synergies among the business units
• Collective learning is continuous
9
Recent Key Achievements
Operating
• Banner year for top-line growth in beverage operations
• US beer export growth outpacing category
• Oxxo top-line and infrastructure growth on track
Strategic
• Meaningful entry into Brazilian beer market
• Established long-term framework with The Coca-Cola Company
• Purchase of incremental 8% stake in KOF
• Joint acquisition of Jugos del Valle with the Coca-Cola system
10
The Road Ahead…
• Evolution of business model
• Profitable growth across businesses
– Coca-Cola FEMSA
– FEMSA Cerveza
– Oxxo
• Asset utilization
• Improving returns on invested capital
11
Return of Invested Capital
ROIC(%)
Per Unit Business(%)
19.713.317.218.012.1
11.19.9 9.99.89.4
10.19.2
10.89.49.1
11.0
2004 2005 20062000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Cerveza KOF Comercio
Note: ROIC calculation is based on the methodology of Stern, Stewart & Co. using inflation adjusted figures for each country where we operate.
12
Evolution of FMX
Growth is key going forward5-Year Share Price
Appreciation
02/26/2007Price US$ 118.80Market Cap US$ 14.2 bn
01/02/2002Price US$ 35.00
Market Cap US$ 3.7 bn
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Source: Bloomberg and Annual Reports.
Evolving with Consumer Preferences
14
Recent Highlights
• Mexico
– Three consecutive years gaining share
– Brand health indicators at all-time high
– Top-line driven earnings growth
• United States
– Double-digit volume growth
– Greater emphasis on brand development
• Brazil
– Business turnaround on track
– Long-term profitable growth objective
15
Mexico Beer Industry has Strengthened
Initiatives
• Innovation
• Greater segmentation
• Improved execution
Economic momentum
Outcome
• Accelerated growth
• Increasing relevance
• Higher barriers to entry
Beer Consumption Per Capita (Liters)
GDP Growth (%)
51 52 53 55 5702 03 04 05 06E
Liters 5101Year
01 – 03CAGR0.8%
04 – 06CAGR3.8%
0.0 1.4 4.2 3.0 4.002 03 04 05 06E
GDP 0.801Year
01 – 03Avg Gwth
0.7%
04 – 06Avg Gwth
3.2%
Note: Beer Consumption per Capita from Mexican Institute of Statistics and FEMSA Cerveza's estimates. GDP Growth % based on constant price GDP year-on-year changes from International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook Database,September 2006 and Analyst Estimations for 2007.
16
Share Gains with Strong Pricing
Domestic Price (MXP)
Domestic Volume Growth vs.Industry(1) (%)
5.6
Market share at 43.7%
3 years outgrowing the industry
(1) Industry includes FEMSA Cerveza and Grupo Modelo beer sales volume in Mexico only. Data from company filings.
FEMSAIndustry
Real 941 974 +3.6%Nominal 904 974 +7.8%
Price per hl 2005 2006 % Chg
5.44.9
4.4
3.8
2.6
2004 2005 2006
17
Improved Brand Preference: Tecate Light
• Consumer preference research brand reposition
• High marketing impact
– “A great tasting beer that leaves room to drink more”
• Leader in light category
Brand Value Index % Share in Domestic Market46.3
Note: FEMSA estimates.
20.1
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
1.05%
5.95%
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
18
Growth Model for Mexico
• Drive top-line
– Volume growth with real pricing
– Innovation & increased value of core brands
• Increase efficiency to offset raw materials pressure
– Aluminum impact expected to moderate in medium term
• Maintain profitability
– Continue to invest in brands
– Strengthen competitive position in market
19
Exports to USA: New Heineken Agreement
Vol. Growth of FEMSA Exportsvs. U.S. Beer Industry (%)
2007 Focus
• Dos Equis new campaign
• Tecate Light launch15.3
14.6
8.17.2
1.7-0.4
2005 2006
FEMSAU.S. Import CategoryU.S. Industry
Source: U.S. Beer Industry data from The Beer Institute for 2005 and 2006 as reported in December 2006.(U.S. represents just over 90% of FEMSA’s exports).
20
Brazil: Groundwork for Long-Term Sustainable Profitable Growth
FEMSA Cerveza Brazil Market Share(%)
Main areas of focus:
• Develop comprehensive brand portfolio
• Reinvest profits in marketing
• Market intelligence / one system
• Commercial platform
• Model for bottler alignment
Recent achievements:
• Relaunch of Kaiser
• National launch of Sol
• Seven months gaining share
15.1
12.2
10.8
9.2
7.48.69.0
01/06 06/06 12/062002 2003 2004 2005
Source: Nielsen.
Building a System
22
Grow, Build, Operate...
% of FEMSA Cerveza Domestic BeerSales in Oxxo
3.94.5
5.4
7.3
8.6
9.9
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Top-line growth of over 20%
• +700 new stores per year
• Creating new profit streams
Building infrastructure
• Segmentation
• Direct distribution
• Information systems
Operating excellence
23
Plenty of Room for Growth
12,000 Oxxo’s by 2015Oxxo Penetration Level by Population
JaliscoPopulation: 6,800,000
Oxxo Stores: 326
Nuevo LeónPopulation: 4,200,000
Oxxo Stores: 510
Valle de MexicoPopulation: 22,800,000
Oxxo Stores: 582
Source: INEGI and FEMSA estimates.
24
Building a Strong Infrastructure
• Six distribution centers servicing 40% of sales
• Store segmentation based on communities and consumers
• Oracle financial and replenishment system deployed in 2007
• Opportunity to growunderpenetrated categories
– Fast food
– Services
SegmentationTechnologyDistribution
Capturing Growth Across our Markets
26
CSD Growth Driven By Brand Coca-Cola...
CSDs Sales Volume(mm UC)
1,695
58%
85%
78%
1,604
1,549
1,493
2003(1) 2004 2005 2006CAGR 03 – 06: 4.3%
FlavorsColasTotal
(1) Includes full-year sales volume of our original territories and our new territories acquired from Panamco.
27
Non-carbonated segment offers greatest potential
Non-Carb Sales Volume Growth(mm UC)
Non-Carb Sales Volumeas % of Total Volume(1)
32.8 4.8 4.7
22.5
19.018.2
2.2
1.21.0 0.9
2003 2004 2005 2006 Brazil Colombia MexicoArgentina Venezuela Central
AmericaCAGR 03 – 06: 21.7%
(1) For the year 2006.
28
Providing Attractive Growth Opportunities
• The Coca-Cola Company will provide additional marketing support for the carbonated and non-carbonated beverage portfolio
• A new business model in the non-carbonated beverages segment
• Potential expansion of our footprint within Latin America and in other markets
29
New Joint Venture for Non Carbonated Beverages with Jugos del Valle
• KOF leadership in NCB
– Expected growth in low double digits
– #1 in Brazil and #2 in Mexico packaged juice
– KOF to manage operations
• Increase top line
• Capture synergies across value chain
• Leverage distribution network in Mexico and Brazil
• Future participation of other bottlers in JV
Transaction Value US$ 470 MM or 1.1x 2006 Revenues
50%50%
JV Product Portfolio
Produces sells and distributes products in 8 different categories...
Juices andNectars
Juicebased products Orangeade CSDs Others
Mex
ico
• Del Valle • Kultai• Valvita• Blue Shot
• Clam Club
Bra
zil
Oth
ers
32
EBITDA Reconciliation By Division
In US$ million1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
FEMSA ConsolidatedIncome From OperationsDepreciationAmortization and OtherEBITDA
440124107670
479121115715
627175143946
736202170
1,108
948204177
1,329
907209181
1,298
1,078233232
1,543
1,238271302
1,812
1,455387260
2,103
1,599372344
2,316
FEMSA CervezaIncome From OperationsDepreciationAmortization and OtherEBITDA
2827935
396
2817560
416
3689981
548
372111111593
414123126663
390128153670
379126166671
426132182740
500138200838
544152218913
Coca-Cola FEMSAIncome From OperationsDepreciationAmortization and OtherEBITDA
1503360
243
1613448
243
2175856
330
3057152
428
4687034
572
4255041
515
5978659
742
69111197
899
811122114
1,047
869138116
1,124
FEMSA ComercioIncome From OperationsDepreciationAmortization and OtherEBITDA
734
14
945
18
2454
33
2976
42
3388
49
4799
64
62121285
821921
122
1183026
174
1473834
219
Nota: All other annual figures are converted into US$ for the respective year end exchange rate.