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FORESIGHT MODELINGTO INFORM DECISION MAKING FOR AGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENT AND FOOD SECURITYKeith Wiebe, International Food Policy Research Institute

Johannesburg, 6 April 2016

Long-term challenges arising from changes in…

• Population

• Income

• Urbanization

• Diets

• Resources

• Climate

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The role of foresight Stakeholder

engagement

ScenariosWhat if…?

Decisions

Challenges & questions

Analysis& resultsData & models

Global Futures & Strategic Foresight

1. Improved tools

2. Stronger community of practice

3. Exploring alternative futures

4. Informing decisions

1. Improved modeling tools

• Climate models

• Water models

• Crop models

• IMPACT economic model

2. Stronger community of practice

• All 15 CGIAR centers now participate in GFSF– AfricaRice, Bioversity, CIAT, CIFOR,

CIMMYT, CIP, ICARDA, ICRAF, ICRISAT, IFPRI, IITA, ILRI, IRRI, IWMI, WorldFish

• Collaboration with other global economic modeling groups through AgMIP– PIK, GTAP, Wageningen, IIASA, UFL,

FAO, OECD, EC/JRC, USDA/ERS, …

• Role of agricultural technologies

• Regional studies

• Analyses by CGIAR centers

• AgMIP global economic assessments

• Private sector

Rainfed Maize (Africa)

Irrigated Wheat (S. Asia)

Rainfed Rice (S. + SE. Asia)

Rainfed Potato (Asia)

Rainfed Sorghum (Africa + India)

Rainfed Groundnut (Africa + SE Asia)

Rainfed Cassava (E. + S. + SE. Asia)

3. Exploring alternative futures

Changes in temperature and precipitationin 2050 compared to 2000 (HadGEM2, RCP 8.5)

Maximum temperature (°C)

Annual precipitation (mm)

Climate change and rainfed maize yieldsin 2050, before economic responses (HadGEM2, RCP 8.5)

Source: IFPRI DSSAT simulations

Climate change impacts on cereal yieldsin 2050, by region (SSP2)

Source: IFPRI, IMPACT version 3.2, November 2015

WLD = World; EAP = East Asia and Pacific; EUR = Europe; FSU = Former Soviet Union; LAC = Latin America and Caribbean; MEN = Middle East and North Africa; NAM = North America; SAS = South Asia; SSA = Sub-Saharan Africa

Population at risk of hunger (SSP2, RCP8.5)

Source: IFPRI, IMPACT version 3.2, November 2015

EAP = East Asia and Pacific; EUR = Europe; FSU = Former Soviet Union; LAC = Latin America and Caribbean; MEN = Middle East and North Africa; NAM = North America; SAS = South Asia; SSA = Sub-Saharan Africa

Exploring the impacts of improved technologies and practices on…

-40.0

-35.0

-30.0

-25.0

-20.0

-15.0

-10.0

-5.0

0.0

Malnourished Children Pop. at-risk-of-hunger

No till Drought tolerance Heat tolerance

Nitrogen use efficiency Integrated soil fertility mgt Precision agriculture

Water harvesting Sprinkler irrigation Drip irrigation

Crop Protection - insects

Source: Rosegrant et al. (2014)

Food Security(Percent difference from 2050 CC baseline)

Source: Islam et al. (draft)

Crop yields(Percent difference from 2050 CC baseline)

4. Informing decisions

• CGIAR

• National partners

• Regional organizations

• International organizations and donors

Concluding thoughts

• Not one future but many possible futures

• Which of the many is realized depends on our choices

• Understanding those choices requires many tools and approaches

• We look forward to engaging with other GCARD partners

Thank you

k.wiebe@cgiar.org