fourth quarter 2013 earnings conference call · earnings conference call january 29, 2014...
TRANSCRIPT
Fourth Quarter 2013Earnings Conference Call
January 29, 2014
Cautionary Note Regarding Forward-Looking StatementsCertain information contained in this presentation is forward-looking information based on current expectations and plans that involve risks and uncertainties. Forward-looking information includes, among other things, statements concerning statements concerning future regulatory actions, rate cases, projected cost and schedule forthe completion of ongoing construction projects, earnings per share guidance, the economic recovery, dividend growth, dividend payout ratio, and financing activities.Southern Company cautions that there are certain factors that can cause actual results to differ materially from the forward-looking information that has beenprovided. The reader is cautioned not to put undue reliance on this forward-looking information, which is not a guarantee of future performance and is subject to anumber of uncertainties and other factors, many of which are outside the control of Southern Company; accordingly, there can be no assurance that such suggestedresults will be realized. The following factors, in addition to those discussed in Southern Company’s Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31,2012, and subsequent securities filings, could cause actual results to differ materially from management expectations as suggested by such forward-lookinginformation: the impact of recent and future federal and state regulatory changes, including legislative and regulatory initiatives regarding deregulation andrestructuring of the electric utility industry, environmental laws including regulation of water, coal combustion byproducts, and emissions of sulfur, nitrogen, carbon,soot, particulate matter, hazardous air pollutants, including mercury, and other substances, and also changes in tax and other laws and regulations to which SouthernCompany and its subsidiaries are subject, as well as changes in application of existing laws and regulations; current and future litigation, regulatory investigations,proceedings, or inquiries, including the pending Environmental Protection Agency civil actions against certain Southern Company subsidiaries, Federal EnergyRegulatory Commission matters, and Internal Revenue Service and state tax audits; the effects, extent, and timing of the entry of additional competition in the marketsin which Southern Company’s subsidiaries operate; variations in demand for electricity, including those relating to weather, the general economy and recovery fromthe recent recession, population and business growth (and declines), the effects of energy conservation measures, and any potential economic impacts resulting fromfederal fiscal decisions; available sources and costs of fuels; effects of inflation; ability to control costs and avoid cost overruns during the development andconstruction of facilities, which include the development and construction of facilities with designs that have not been finalized or previously constructed, including theimpact of factors such as labor costs and productivity, adverse weather conditions, shortages and inconsistent quality of equipment, materials, and labor, or contractoror supplier delay or non-performance under construction or other agreements, delays associated with start-up activities, including major equipment failure, systemintegration, and operations, and/or unforeseen engineering problems; ability to construct facilities in accordance with the requirements of permits and licenses and tosatisfy any operational and environmental performance standards, including the requirements of tax credits and other incentives; investment performance of SouthernCompany’s employee and retiree benefit plans and the Southern Company system’s nuclear decommissioning trust funds; advances in technology; state and federalrate regulations and the impact of pending and future rate cases and negotiations, including rate actions relating to fuel and other cost recovery mechanisms;regulatory approvals and actions related to the Plant Vogtle expansion, including Georgia Public Service Commission (“PSC”) approvals, Nuclear RegulatoryCommission actions, and potential U.S. Department of Energy loan guarantees; actions related to cost recovery for the Kemper County integrated coal gasificationcombined cycle facility (“Kemper IGCC”), including actions relating to proposed securitization, Mississippi PSC approval of Mississippi Power Company’s proposedrate recovery plan, as revised, which includes the ability to complete the proposed sale of an interest in the Kemper IGCC to South Mississippi Electric PowerAssociation, the ability to utilize bonus depreciation, which currently requires that the Kemper IGCC be placed in service in 2014, and satisfaction of requirements toutilize investment tax credits and grants; Mississippi PSC review of the prudence of Kemper IGCC costs; the outcome of any legal or regulatory proceedings regardingthe Mississippi PSC’s issuance of the Certificate of Public Convenience and Necessity for the Kemper IGCC, the settlement agreement between Mississippi PowerCompany and the Mississippi PSC, or the State of Mississippi legislation designed to enhance the Mississippi PSC’s authority to facilitate development andconstruction of baseload generation in the State of Mississippi; the inherent risks involved in operating and constructing nuclear generating facilities, includingenvironmental, health, regulatory, natural disaster, terrorism, and financial risks; the performance of projects undertaken by the non-utility businesses and the successof efforts to invest in and develop new opportunities; internal restructuring or other restructuring options that may be pursued; potential business strategies, includingacquisitions or dispositions of assets or businesses, which cannot be assured to be completed or beneficial to Southern Company or its subsidiaries; the ability ofcounterparties of Southern Company and its subsidiaries to make payments as and when due and to perform as required; the ability to obtain new short- and long-term contracts with wholesale customers; the direct or indirect effect on the Southern Company system’s business resulting from terrorist incidents and the threat ofterrorist incidents, including cyber intrusion; interest rate fluctuations and financial market conditions and the results of financing efforts, including Southern Company’sand its subsidiaries’ credit ratings; the impacts of any potential U.S. credit rating downgrade or other sovereign financial issues, including impacts on interest rates,access to capital markets, impacts on currency exchange rates, counterparty performance, and the economy in general, as well as potential impacts on the availabilityor benefits of proposed U.S. Department of Energy loan guarantees; the ability of Southern Company and its subsidiaries to obtain additional generating capacity atcompetitive prices; catastrophic events such as fires, earthquakes, explosions, floods, hurricanes, droughts, pandemic health events such as influenzas, or othersimilar occurrences; the direct or indirect effects on the Southern Company system’s business resulting from incidents affecting the U.S. electric grid or operation ofgenerating resources; and the effect of accounting pronouncements issued periodically by standard setting bodies. Southern Company expressly disclaims anyobligation to update any forward-looking information.
2
Agenda
• 2013 Operational Highlights
• Vogtle & Kemper Updates
• 2013 Financial & Sales Results
• Updated Forecast
3
Major Regulatory Activities in 2013
4GulfGeorgiaAlabama Mississippi
38%
42%
16%
Outstanding Operational Performance
5
2013 Generation Mix
NuclearCoal
Gas
Safety• 2013 was our safest year ever
Customer Satisfaction• Southern Company took the top five
spots in annual benchmark survey
Reliability • 2013 was our best year for
transmission and distribution
A customer-focused business model
Providing the lowest cost energy to our customers
Vogtle Unit 3 Progress
6
Nucle
ar
Islan
dTu
rbin
e Isl
and
January 2013 December 2013
January 2013 December 2013
Cool
ing
Towe
r
January 2013 December 2013
Vogtle Unit 3 CA20 Module
7
Vogtle Unit 3 Nuclear Island – 2014 Activity
8
Current View
Projected Year-End
View
Middle Ring
Auxiliary Building Walls to Elevation 100’
CA-20
Lower Ring
CA-01
Shield Building Panel Installation
CA-03
CA-02(Inside Vessel)
CA-05(Inside Vessel)
CA-04CB-65
Auxiliary Building Walls to Elevation 82’6”
Waste Tanks
Kemper IGCC
9
In Progress• 679K linear feet of gasifier
piping installed (~75%)• Testing of combined cycle
Upcoming for 2014• First gasifier heat up • Reliable syngas to combined cycle
Steam Piping in Gasifier Island
Combined Cycle
Gas Clean-Up
Kemper IGCC
10
Gasifier
Combined Cycle Gas Clean-
Up
Cooling Towers
LigniteDelivery
Q4 2013 Earnings Results
11
Q4 YTD
Earnings Per Share $0.47 $1.88
Impact of increase in Kemper cost estimate $0.03 $0.83
Impact of Leveraged Lease Restructure $0.00 $0.02
Impact of MCAR settlement ($0.02) ($0.02)
Earnings Per Share x-items $0.48 $2.71
FY12 FY13
6¢
1¢
-3¢ 2¢3¢ -2¢
2¢ -1¢-1¢
10¢ -3¢
$2.68
$2.71
CustomerUsage &Growth
Other Revenue Effects
Weather
Wholesale Revenues
Other OperatingRevenues
PPA Expense
D&AOther
Income
Income Taxes
Shares
Taxes Other Than
Income Tax
-2¢Interest ExpenseNon-fuel
O&M
-2¢
Traditional Operating
Companies 7¢
-1¢
-6¢
Southern Power Parent
and Other
FY2013 vs. FY2012 Adjusted EPS Drivers
12Note: Excludes 2013 -83¢ EPS impact of updated Kemper Project cost estimate, 2013 -2¢ EPS impact of Leveraged Lease Restructure, 2013 +2¢ EPS impact of MCAR Settlement, and 2012 +2¢ EPS impact of MCAR Settlement. GAAP EPS was $1.88 for 2013 vs. $2.70 for 2012.
2013 Retail Sales
13
As ReportedResidential 0.2%Commercial -0.9%Industrial 1.5%Total Retail 0.3%
Weather Normal*-0.3%-0.1%1.5%0.4%
As Reported Weather Normal6.0%1.4%4.8%3.9%
0.5%-0.1%4.8%1.7%
Q4 YTD
* Also reflects reclassification of January 2012 KWH sales among customer classes consistent with actual advanced meter data;use of actual advanced meter data was implemented during the first quarter of 2012
-0.9%-0.5%
1.0%
1.7%
0.4%Q1 Q2
Q3 Q4 Year
As expected, stronger 2nd half sales growth
14
Expected 2014 Sales Growth
GDP projected to grow 2.5% – 3.0%
Industrial activity continues to improve with many new entrants being international firms
Housing markets continue to improve with housing-related sectors benefiting
Economic momentum from late 2013 carrying into 2014
Economic Roundtable
2014 Outlook
$15.9B Capital Expenditure Program (2014-2016)
14 - '16Potential Southern Power
Growth Projects 1.4
Southern Power Base 0.4
Environmental 3.2
New Generation 2.3
T&D Growth 1.3
Nuclear Fuel 0.9
Maintenance 5.4
Other 1.0
2014 2015 2016
$6.1B
$5.4B
$4.5B
Base$14.5B
15Notes: Totals may not add due to rounding and amounts are subject to change with filing of the 2013 10-K
Includes amounts for which Mississippi will not seek recovery above the $2.88B Kemper cost cap, net of DOE grants and cost cap exceptions,of $0.5B in 2014 ($1.1B gross, net of projected proceeds from sale of 15% to SMEPA)
2014 – 2016 Financing Plan
16
($ in billions) 2014 2015 2016
Equity Issuances $ 0.6 $ - $ -
Georgia DOE Loan $ 1.5 $ 1.1 $ 0.4Mississippi Securitization - 0.9 -Capital Markets Issuances:
Long Term Securities Issuances $ 2.8 $ 4.0 $ 1.90.4 1.3 1.3Maturity & Bridge Financing Replacement
New Money 0.9 0.7 0.2
Note: Additional details are provided in the appendix
2014 Earnings Per Share Guidance
17
$2.72
$2.80
$2.71
$2.64
-7¢
2013 EPS*Dilution from Kemper
write-offs 2014 & beyond
+4¢ (+1.5%)
-4¢ (-1.5%)
Adjusted base for growth
* Excludes -83¢ EPS impact of updated Kemper Project cost estimate, -2¢ EPS impact of Leveraged Lease Restructure, and +2¢ EPS impact of MCAR Settlement. GAAP EPS was $1.88 for 2013.
Invested Capital Growth is Expected to Slow
18
CAGR
5.8%5.3%
4.9%
3.6%
2008 - 2013 2014 2015 2016
2015 & 2016 Earnings Per Share Growth
19
2014
$2.72
$2.80
$2.91
$2.80
2015
$3.03
$2.89
2016
74% - 77%$2.08
74% - 77%$2.15
73% - 77%$2.22Dividend Forecast
Implied Payout Ratio
$2.71*
$2.64
-7¢
Potential longer-termEPS Growth Drivers• Regulated Capacity
• So Power Capacity
• Effluent Guidelines (ELG)
• 316(b)
• Coal Ash Rules (CCR)
• Equity ratio
* Excludes -83¢ EPS impact of updated Kemper Project cost estimate, -2¢ EPS impact of Leveraged Lease Restructure, and +2¢ EPS impact of MCAR Settlement. GAAP EPS was $1.88 for 2013.
Guidance and Dividends
20
On average over the past 10 years, Southern Company has had the smallest guidance ranges
(measured as a % of the midpoint)
SO
Average EPS Guidance Range Size of UTY Companies 2004-2013
During this same time frame, Southern Company has increased its common dividend every single year
UTY average
* Excluding non-recurring items as identified in the earnings release for each respective year 2004-2013
Appendix
21
22
Capacity Factors Q4 YTD2012 2013 2012 2013
Coal - PRB 82% 79% 71% 73%
Coal - Non-PRB 18% 25% 29% 32%
Gas - Combined Cycle 69% 65% 71% 66%
Generation Portfolio Diversity
Generation Mix Q4 YTD2012 2013 2012 2013
Gas/Oil 47% 43% 45% 42%
Coal 32% 37% 36% 38%
Nuclear 19% 17% 17% 16%
Hydro/Other 2% 3% 2% 4%
Q4 2012 Q4 2013
$0.44
$0.48
1¢
3¢
2¢
-2¢
-1¢2¢
1¢ 1¢
Other Operating Revenues
Weather
Non-FuelO&M
D&A Other Income
InterestExpense
SouthernPower
Traditional Operating
Companies 7¢
CustomerGrowth
-1¢-1¢
Parent and Other
Income Taxes
Q4 2013 vs. Q4 2012 Adjusted EPS Drivers
23 Note: Excludes Q4 2013 -3¢ EPS impact of updated Kemper Project cost estimate and 2013 +2¢ EPS impact of MCAR Settlement; GAAP EPS was $0.47 for Q4 2013 vs. $0.44 for Q4 2012
-1¢
Shares
2014 – 2016 CapEx Forecast – Functional
24
Total$billions 2014 2015 2016 ‘14-’16
New Generation $1.2 $0.7 $0.5 $2.3Environmental Compliance 1.5 1.1 0.6 3.2
Transmission 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.4Distribution 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.9
Total T&D Growth 0.4 0.4 0.4 1.3Generation 0.9 0.9 0.8 2.7Transmission 0.6 0.5 0.4 1.5Distribution 0.4 0.4 0.4 1.2
Total Maintenance (G, T & D) 2.0 1.8 1.6 5.4Nuclear Fuel 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.9General 0.3 0.4 0.3 1.0Traditional OpCo Total $5.6 $4.7 $3.8 $14.1Southern Power 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.4
Potential Southern Power Growth Projects 0.3 0.5 0.6 1.4
Total Capex $6.1 $5.4 $4.5 $15.9
Base Total $5.8 $4.8 $3.9 $14.5
Notes: Totals may not add due to rounding and amounts are subject to change with filing of the 2013 10-KIncludes amounts for which Mississippi will not seek recovery above the $2.88B Kemper cost cap, net of DOE grants and cost cap exceptions,of $0.5B in 2014 ($1.1B gross, net of projected proceeds from sale of 15% to SMEPA)
2014 – 2016 CapEx Forecast – Company
25
Total$billions 2014 2015 2016 '14 - '16
Alabama Power $1.7 $1.7 $1.2 $4.6Georgia Power 2.5 2.4 2.1 7.0Gulf Power 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.9Mississippi Power 0.8 0.3 0.2 1.3Other Subsidiaries 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.3Traditional OpCo Total $5.6 $4.7 $3.8 $14.1Southern Power 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.4
Potential Southern Power Growth Projects 0.3 0.5 0.6 1.4
Total Capex $6.1 $5.4 $4.5 $15.9
Base Total $5.8 $4.8 $3.9 $14.5
Notes: Totals may not add due to rounding and amounts are subject to change with filing of the 2013 10-KIncludes amounts for which Mississippi will not seek recovery above the $2.88B Kemper cost cap, net of DOE grants and cost cap exceptions,of $0.5B in 2014 ($1.1B gross, net of projected proceeds from sale of 15% to SMEPA)
2014 – 2016 long-term securities issuances
26
($ in billions) 2014 2015 2016Alabama Power $ 0.4 $ 0.9 $ 0.4 Georgia Power - 0.8 0.2 Gulf Power 0.2 0.1 0.1 Mississippi Power 0.5 - 0.3 Southern Power 1 - 0.3 -Holding Company 0.3 - 0.5 Long Term Market Issuances $ 1.3 $ 2.0 $ 1.5Georgia DOE Loan 1.5 1.1 0.4Mississippi Securitization - 0.9 -Long Term Securities Issuances $ 2.8 $ 4.0 $ 1.9
1 Potential Southern Power growth projects would require additional funding of $500M and $250M in 2015 and 2016, respectively
Totals may not add due to rounding