future energy scenarios for african cities unlocking ... may...objectives of strategic foresight –...
TRANSCRIPT
Future Energy Scenarios for African Cities Unlocking Opportunities for Climate
Responsive Development f
EU Energy Initiative Partnership Dialogue Facility (EUEI PDF)
Future Energy Scenarios for African Cities f
Agenda:
1. Key Note Speech • Dr Tania Rödiger-Vorwerk, Deputy Director General, Federal Ministry of
Economic Cooperation and Development (BMZ) 2. Presentation of Energy Scenarios for Climate Responsive Development in African Cities • Ms Silvia Escudero, Project Manager, EUEI PDF 3. Thematic discussion: „Enabling energy action in urban and peri-urban informal settlements • Mr David Hees, Solar Utility Manager, Sustainability Institute
„Supporting capacity building needs of energy in municipalities • Mr Edison K. Masereka, Business Development and Research Manager,
Kampala Capital City Authority
„Unlocking finance for energy projects in primary and secondary cities • Mr Felix Akrofi-Atitianti, Junior Project Officer, Low Carbon Cities ICLEI
Future Energy Scenarios for African Cities f
Key Note Speech Dr Tania Rödiger-Vorwerk, Deputy Director General, Federal Ministry of Economic Cooperation and Development (BMZ)
Future Energy Scenarios for African Cities Unlocking Opportunities for Climate
Responsive Development f
EU Energy Initiative Partnership Dialogue Facility (EUEI PDF)
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500 000
600 000
Urban population 1990-2050 (000s) Source: UN World Urbanisation Prospects 2016
Eastern Africa Middle Africa Northern Africa
Southern Africa Western Africa
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50
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150
200
250
300
350
2000 2012 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Total final energy demand (Mtoe) Source: IEA Africa Energy Outlook 2014
West Africa Central Africa
East Africa Southern Africa
Megatrends: Population Growth and Increased Energy Demand
Objectives of Strategic Foresight – Energy Scenarios 2050
Classify drivers for change and wild cards to improve risk management
Break down complexity of urban planning (inter-sectorial inputs)
Identify the main megatrends that will shape the future of African cities
Support long term strategic planning
Identify opportunities and challenges to avoid unsustainable futures
Reliance on a centralised
energy model
Strong climate
commitment, weak
enforcement
Technology enabled growth
Green and enabled city expansion
The
Scenarios
Scenario 1 – Reliance on a centralised energy model
Ce
ntr
alis
ed e
ner
gy s
up
ply
Weak implementation capacity
Scenario 1 – Reliance on a centralised energy model
2010 2020 2040 2050 2030
“News ticker: Government of Ghana responds to power outages
with plan to install 3 GW in thermal gas and diesel as well as
two hydro stations”
Lock-in to unsustainable infrastructure which does not address urban and peri-urban needs
“Africa Report: Eviction of Kibera slum fuels unrest on the streets of Nairobi”
Social and economic inequalities are concentrated in informal settlements
High fuel cost drive energy efficiency
and shift to large-scale renewables Disruption of centralised infrastructure cuts
off energy supply
Scenario 4 – Technology enabled growth
Tech
no
logi
cal i
nn
ova
tio
n
Decentralised energy
Scenario 4 – Technology enabled growth
2010 2020 2040 2050 2030
“News ticker: Start up MobiSun uses mobile banking and satellite data to provide power access to residents without a fix address in Temeke slum, in Dar es Salaam”
“Africa Report: Forced eviction of slums residents in Freetown, Sierra Leone after massive flooding”
Private-sector leading technological progress and outpacing action in governments
Role of vertical integrated utilities diminished
Decentralised energy supply system is only slightly affected by climate change effects
Lack of government coordination leads to poor management of climate adaptation action
Provocative messages - Energy Scenarios 2050
Informality
In 2050, 41% of the urban population of sub-Saharan Africa will still lack access to energy. Those lacking access will be
concentrated in informal settlements.
Implementation capacity of municipalities
In 2050, sub-Saharan African cities will face challenges in terms of financial and human resources to respond to the needs of their
population.
Access to finance
In 2050, access to infrastructure finance for African municipalities will still be limited due low creditworthiness of municipalities.
Thematic discussion:
Enabling energy action in urban and peri-urban informal settlements
Mr David Hees, Solar Utility Manager, Sustainability Institute
„Supporting capacity building needs of energy in municipalities
Mr Edison K. Masereka, Business Development and Research Manager, Kampala Capital City Authority
„Unlocking finance for energy projects in primary and secondary cities
Mr Felix Akrofi-Atitianti, Project Officer, Low Carbon Cities ICLEI