11

GBTA Washington Update

12th Annual Legislative SymposiumJune 24, 2014

2

Capitol Hill Is A (Relatively) Small Neighborhood

House Senate

Russell Senate Office Building

Dirksen Senate Office Building

Hart Senate Office BuildingSupreme CourtLibrary of

CongressJefferson Building

Cannon House Office

Building

Longworth House Office

Building

Rayburn House Office Building

Capitol Visitors Center Entrance

Library of CongressMadison Building

Getting To The HillBy Car

• Capitol Hill offers few public parking options; street parking is difficult.

• The nearest garage is north of the Capitol, by Union Station

• Many visitors prefer to arrive by taxi, available throughout the city.

By Public Transportation• For most visitors, the Metro system will prove the

best transportation bet. • The Red Line (subway) serves the north side of the

Capitol, while the Blue and Orange lines offer two stations to the south

• The Metrobus serves various points around the Hill; visit WMATA.com to see detailed maps

By Foot• D.C. is a relatively walkable

city.• However, hot and humid

weather may make long walks inadvisable during summer months

2Sources: Architect of the Capitol, National Journal Research.

Capitol South Metro

FederalCenterMetro

UnionStationMetro(noton map)

NSE

W

3

The Geography of The Senate Side

Russell Senate Office

Building

Dirksen Senate Office

Building

Hart Senate Office

Building

Senate Chamber

First Street NE

Constitution Avenue

3

Understanding Office NumbersBuilding Russell (SR) Dirksen (SD) Hart (SH)

Numbering System

All rooms are three digits, the first digit indicating floor number and a prefix indicating office building

Example Sen. Harry Reid’s office, SH 522, is located on the fifth floor of the Hart building

Sources: Bing Maps, National Journal Research.

EWS

NPublic Non-Handicapped Accessible Entrance

Public, Handicapped Accessible Entrance

Entrance Member/Staff-Only Until 10 AM

The Delaware Ave. door is exclusively Member/Staff/Accessible all day

4

Public Non-Handicapped Accessible Entrance

Public, Handicapped Accessible Entrance

The Geography of the House Side

First Street SE

Independence Avenue

S. Capitol Street SE

Rayburn House Office

Building

Longworth House Office

Building

Cannon House Office

Building

House Chamber

Understanding Office NumbersBuilding Rayburn (RHOB) Longworth (LHOB) Cannon (CHOB)

Numbering System

All rooms are four digits; the first is always 2, the second indicates floor

All rooms are four digits; the first is always 1, the second indicates floor

All rooms are three digits; the first indicates floor

Example Rep. Kevin McCarthy’s office, 2421 RHOB, is on the fourth floor of Rayburn

Rep. Paul Ryan’s office, 1233 LHOB, is on the second floor of Longworth

Rep. Nancy Pelosi’s office, 235 CHOB, is on the second floor of Cannon

4Sources: Bing Maps, National Journal Research.

EWS

N

Capitol South Metro

Entrance Member/Staff-Only Until 10 AM

5Source: Office of the Clerk, U.S. House of Representatives; “Illinois Rep. Kelly Takes Seat in House, Replacing Jesse Jackson Jr.,” The Associated Press, April 11, 2013.

Congressional ControlHouse Makeup by Party

Vacancy

Dem Seat

Total SeatsDemocrats: 201Republicans: 233

201

1

233

Republican Seat

Senate Makeup by Party

Independent Seat

Dem SeatRepublican Seat

53 45

2

Total SeatsDemocrats: 53Republicans: 45Independents: 2

Vacancy

6

House Republicans Can Be Considered in Six Factions

Six Factions of the Republican Party(Based on Republican Votes on Key Legislation* in 2013)

Voted YES 5 of 5 times

Voted YES 4 of 5 times

Voted YES 3 of 5 times

Voted NO3 of 5 times

Voted NO 4 of 5 times

Voted NO 5 of 5 times

Coalition of the Willing The Deciders Coalition of the Unwilling

6Source: Cook Political Report, 2014.

7

Obama’s Second Term Cabinet

7

Top White House Staff

Secretary of State

Defense Secretary

Attorney General

CIA Director, Director of National Intelligence

National Security Adviser

Homeland Security Secretary

Treasury Secretary

OMB Director

Council of Economic Advisers Chairman

Commerce Secretary

Energy Secretary

Health and Human Services Secretary

Housing and Urban Development SecretaryInterior Secretary

Labor Secretary

Agriculture Secretary

Transportation Secretary

Education Secretary

EPA Administrator

Federal Reserve Board

Veterans Affairs SecretarySmall Business AdministrationAdministrator

88

Congress Likely to Focus on Must-Pass Bills Before Midterms

Analysis• Stalemates between the Republican House and Democratic Senate mean that few bills are likely to pass

Congress between now and the end of session, except for those measures that both parties see as a must-pass

• Both parties hope to be in a better position to influence the legislative agenda following the November elections, so both may see incentives to delay Congressional action until then

Sources: Billy House, “Time is Running Out for Big Bills,” National Journal, April 13, 2014; Bob Litan and Loren Duggan, “What’s On Tap in Congress in 2014,” Bloomberg Government, January 8, 2014.

Issues Congress Could Consider in 2014Issues With Deadlines

Issues Without Deadlines

May June July August(recess) September October November

(midterms) DecemberHighway Trust Fund: The government account that pays for highway construction is projected to run out before SeptemberNational Defense Authorization Act: Legislation authorizing Department of Defense operations is seen as a must-pass for Congress; legislators expect to produce a bill by October

Unemployment Benefits: The House and Senate remain stymied on the question of extending unemployment benefits for the long-term unemployed

Export-Import Bank: Congress faces a September 30th deadline for reauthorizingAnnual Appropriations: The Ryan-Murray budget deal set overall spending, but lawmakers may attempt to produce an appropriations bill before the fiscal year

Income Inequality : Senate Democrats are expected to propose a number of measures aimed at addressing income inequality, such as raising the minimum wage and a gender-pay bill, but the legislation is not expected to advance in a Republican-controlled House

Healthcare Reform: House Republicans have pledged to suggest an alternative to the Affordable Care Act before November elections, but the Senate is almost certain to fail to take up any measure

Tax Extenders: Congress may address expired tax breaksImmigration Reform: Movement on a bill is possible

9

Possible gain of 5-10 seats

Majority control

In the House

• Odds are that the House will remain stable

• Possible Republican gain of 5-10 seats

In the Senate

• Odds are better than 50/50 that for a Republican takeover

• Would be surprised if Republicans didn’t net at least 5 seats, and 6 seats is looking increasingly likely

• Many races will swing together, e.g., if Sen. Landrieu (D-LA) loses, difficult to see Sen. Hagan (D-NC) or Sen. Pryor (D-AR) winning

Possible gain of 6+

seats

Majority control

Overall OutlookProjected Party Composition Shifts

9

10

Competitive Senate Midterm Races

Recommendations and detected threats

OHWV

VA

PA

NY

ME

NC

SC

GA

TN

KY

IN

MIWI

MN

IL

LATX

OK

ID

NV

OR

WA

CA

AZNM

CO

WY

MT ND

SD

IA

UT

FL

AR

MO

MS AL

NE

KS

VT

NHMA

RICTNJ

DEMD

AK

HI

NC: Sen. Hagan (D) has watched her polling leads vanish; she will face state House Speaker Thom Tillis (R) in the general election

AR: Sen. Pryor (D) faces an uphill battle against Republican opponent Tom Cotton in an increasingly conservative state

AK: Sen. Begich (D) awaits a challenger from the crowded Alaska primary candidate pool; former Natural Resources Commissioner Dan Sullivan (R) has polled well against Begich

LA: Sen. Landrieu (D) faces Rep. Bill Cassidy (R) in a race rated a pure toss-up by The Cook Political Report

KY: Sen. McConnell (R) is running neck and neck with Kentucky Secretary of State Alison Grimes (D)

GA: After Sen. Chambliss (R) announced his retirement, Democrats made this seat a target; rookie Michelle Nunn (D) has raised over $3 million

The races identified above are considered competitive by The Cook Political Report based on each jurisdiction’s past election history, polling results, campaign fundraising, candidate quality, and other factors.

MI: No longer a safe Democratic seat; both parties are polling well early

Republican Senators

Democrat Senators

Open Senate Seats

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MT: In the contest for the seat of retiring Sen. Max Baucus (D), Rep. Steve Daines (R) will face Lt. Gov. John Walsh (D), who has been serving since Baucus left

UpdatedJune 16, 2014