Global Aerosol Forecasting SystemApplications to Houston/Costa Rica Aura Validation ExperimentsArlindo da SilvaGlobal Modeling and Assimilation Office, Code 610.1

Peter ColarcoAtmospheric Chemistry and Dynamics Branch, Code 613.3

Goals

Incorporate state of the art aerosol and chemistry packages into the GEOS-5 global climate model and data assimilation system

Provide to the NASA and wider science community chemical weather forecasts

Forecasts produced in same modeling framework used to support funded investigations of aerosol effects on climate and assimilation of A-Train aerosol productsAerosol/Chemistry packages are ESMF components integrated into MAP modeling environment

Aerosols

Developed an implementation of the GOCART aerosol module for major tropospheric aerosol species

Collaborator: Mian Chin, Code 613.3

CO and CO2

Implemented modules for CO and CO2 forecasting capability based on Code 613.3 PCTM

COsources from fossil fuel, biofuel, and biomass burningchemical production from NMHC and CH4 oxidation, chemical loss to OH oxidation oxidants for chemistry based on GEOS-CHEM/GMI and CMDL GLOBALVIEW-CH4

CO2sources from biosphere, ocean, and fossil fuel following Transcom 3 protocol, and biomass burningCollaborators: Huisheng Bian, Randy Kawa, Code 613.3

Biomass Burning Emissions

QFED: Daily biomass burning emissions of aerosols, CO, CO2, and SO2

Real-time MODIS firecounts from Aqua and TerraCollaborators: Jim Collatz, Code 614.4, Mian Chin, Tom Kucsera, Code 613.3Emission factors calibrated against Global Fire Emission Database (GFED)QFED

Chemical Forecasts

Aerosols, CO, and CO2 currently transported on-line in current GEOS-4 global climate modelSame modules can also be run in GMAOs next generation GEOS-5 systemDepending on mission requirements other packages are available, e.g, full stratospheric chemistry as used for PAVEGMI combined tropospheric/stratospheric chemistry modules under integration (with SIVO)

Model is run in global domain, 1 x 1.25 horizontal resolution, 55 vertical levels extending to 85 kmGEOS-5 version will be run at 0.5o resolution

5-day forecasts run twice daily at 0Z and 12Z with atmospheric state from GMAOs First Look Data Assimilation SystemCollaborators: GMAO Operations Group

Aura Validation Experiment Supporthttp://code613-3.gsfc.nasa.gov/People/Colarco/CRAVE

Please also see the HyperWall display in theBack, soon in the Bldg. 33 Lobby!

Aura Validation Experiment ProductsForecast animations of aerosol optical thickness and tracer mixing ratios

Forecast and analysis static plots of aerosol optical thickness and tracer mixing ratio

Vertical cross-section curtain plots of tracer mixing ratio along north-south and east-west flight trajectories

Model EvaluationAnalysis of CRAVE mission data is preliminary

Model EvaluationAnalysis of CRAVE mission data is preliminary

Aerosols are being compared to previous off-line GOCART runsGOCART is run at 2 x 2.5 resolution with GEOS-3 meteorology

Model EvaluationAnalysis of CRAVE mission data is preliminary

Aerosols are being compared to previous off-line GOCART runs

Aerosols are being compared to AERONET and MODIS datasetsSampling of model and satellite data in a consistent manner is important for comparisonSeptember 2000 (SAFARI-2000)Monthly Mean AOT MODISGEOS-4unsampledGEOS-4sampledlike MODIS

Data AssimilationMODIS Assimilation:1D-Var assimilation of radiances (MODIS/OMI)Observation bias corrections and source defect estimated by means of forecast bias estimates

Combined MODIS/OMI Assimilation:Improve estimation of absorption by using OMI UV/Visible channels 1D-Var assimilation of MODIS and OMI radiancesMonitoring of OMI radiances and assimilated aerosol fieldsCollaborators: Clark Weaver, Omar Torres, Amelia Colarco, Code 613.3AERONET AOTGOCART Analysis AOTWeaver et al., 2006, JAS, in review

Future DirectionsContinue support for other NASA missions: INTEX, AMMA

Funded and proposed work for data assimilation of MODIS, OMI, SAGE,CALIPSO, GLAS, etc., radiance and aerosol products

Pending ROSES/DECISIONS proposal for GFS-GOCARTThis project will give NCEP aerosol forecasting capabilities

Funded work under MAP for incorporation of aerosol and cloud microphysics for improved aerosol composition, direct effect, and indirect effect estimations

GEOS-4 Model Description1.25 x 1 horizontal, 32 vertical levelsGSFC dynamical core and assimilated meteorologyNCAR physicsGOCART aerosols:dust (5 bins), seasalt (5 bins),sulfate, organic and black carbonGSFCCapo VerdeMonguModel +/- 1AERONET +/- 1