Global food security & climate change

Geoff Tansey

World Preservation Foundation Conference, 3 Nov 2010

www.tansey.org.uk

challenges

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Social justice

Fairer decisions

The big issues

A dysfunctional system today

• 925 million undernourished in 2010, down from 1bn

• 2 billion micronutrient deficient

• About 1.2 billion overweight - 300 million obese

• Affects poor most, N & S

• 2.5bn people in agriculture (1.3bn smallholders)

– 75% of poor (<$2/day) in rural areas

– Women most badly affected but also major food

producers

Sources: FAO, USDA, WHO & World Bank

From a stocks focus in 1970s

‘The concept of food security is broad and complex but its cornerstone is a system of grain reserves that will protect the world against the effects of violent fluctuations in food production and food prices.’

‘Food security – not yet’, Comment, Food Policy, Vol 1, No 4, August 1976, p270

Food security - FAO 1996

• A situation that exists when all people, at all times, have physical, social and economic access to sufficient, safe and nutritious food that meets their dietary needs and food preferences for an active and healthy life

• Accessibility

• Availability

• Affordability

To genuinely sustainable food systems

• core goal - feed everyone sustainably, equitably and healthily;

• addresses availability,affordability and accessibility;

• diverse, ecologically-sound and resilient;

• builds capabilities and skills needed for future generations.

Sustainable Development Commission

And beyond to food sovereignty:

‘the right of peoples to healthy and culturally appropriate food produced through ecologically sound and sustainable methods, and their right to define their own food and agriculture systems.’ (Declaration of Nyéléni, 2007)

Climate change

• Global warming - 2-6oC

• Climate destabilisation– Increased extreme events– Floods, droughts, storms, fires

• Biodiversity loss

• Production losses and volatility

• Desertification and water stress

Fair shares

Fair play

Fair say

Prosperity without growth (for N)

• There is as yet no credible, socially just, ecologically sustainable scenario of continually growing incomes for a world of nine billion people

• Simplistic assumptions that capitalism’s propensity for efficiency will allow us to stabilise the climate and protect against resource scarcity are nothing short of delusional

Tim Jackson, SDC

Beyond current assumptions

• Should we be able to consume what we want, when we want, from wherever we want?

• What is our historical responsibility?– GHG emissions + ecological debt

What kind of innovation do we need to secure our future food?

• local / institutional / political / financial / social / economic / legal not just technological

• Sustainable production, sustainable and equitable consumption

Changing paradigms & practices• To agro-ecological farming

from industrial, fossil fuel based model– IAASTD– Millennium Ecosystem Assess– National Academy of Sciences

• Changing consumption– Prosperity without growth (in N)– Meat, dairy, oils

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Food, climate change & UK

• 20% UK GHG emissions from food– 30% if include indirect from global land use

changes– Meat & dairy about 8% UK’s consumption related

GHGs (excludes effects on global land use)

• Water scarcity– Agric uses 70% abstracted water globally, – UK import’s 2/3rds ‘virtual water’ it uses

• Biodiversity loss– Inc agricultural biodiversity

Action on

• Production

• Waste

• Consumption– Footprinting this takes in ‘off-shoring’– Both GHG emissions and water

• Dialogue

Avoid Déjà vu in 2020/30/50

‘The food crisis of the past two years has drawn attention dramatically to both the interdependence of production, trade, stocks and prices and the serious unpreparedness of the world as a whole to meet the vagaries of the weather.’

Assessment of the World Food Situation Present and Future, prepared for the UN World Food Conference, Rome, November 1974, Quoted in

Food Policy, Vol 1, No1, November 1975, p2

Food is a lens, connector and

opportunity

Sustainability

Climate change

Health

Social Justice

Gender

www.tansey.org.uk