greater nottingham aligned core strategies housing provision 7 th april 2011
TRANSCRIPT
Greater NottinghamAligned Core Strategies
HOUSING PROVISION
7th April 2011
• What are the Aligned Core Strategies?
• Why are we revisiting housing provision?
• Household projections
• Next steps
Reminder – Greater Nottingham
New Housing Provision figures – why?
New Housing Provision figures – why?
• Option for Consultation 2010
• Forthcoming abolition of Regional Strategies
• Localism/new approach to planning
• Government’s New Household Projections
Department ofCommunities & Local Government “…decisions on housing
supply will rest with local
authorities without the framework of regional numbers and plans.”
“Regional Strategies built nothing but resentment – we want to build houses.”
Department ofCommunities & Local Government
“Local authorities should continue to collect and use reliable information to justify their housing supply policies and defend them during the LDF examination process. They should do this in line with current policy in PPS3.”
Household Projections
• ACS used 2004 based• 2008 based issued November 2010• Long standing issues
– Projections, NOT forecasts– Migration– Short period projecting forward– No market information
5 Scenarios
1. Natural change in the existing population
2. In and out migration in balance
3. Long term (8 year) migration trend
4. No increase in jobs
5. Continuing past house building rates
Ground Rules
• Not prejudging future decisions about either the scale of housing provision or its distribution.
• Looking at Greater Nottingham, not considering distribution amongst Local Authorities – for later.
• Or locations!• Not choosing any one scenario – all help
to inform future decisions.
Other assumptions
• Unless explicitly mentioned, assumptions in the Government projections are unchanged – eg household size.
Ashfield position
• Only Hucknall part included in ACS.
• Nottingham “outer” HMA.
• Distribution around district a policy decision for later.
• Therefore assumed Hucknall provision continues at ACS levels.
Greater Nottingham Housing Provision 2009 - 2026
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
80000
Aligned Core Stratgies (RSS) CLG Projections
Ne
w H
om
es
Scenario 1 - Natural Change in the Existing Population
• How many new homes need to provide for the existing population?
• Assumes no one moves in and no one moves out.
Scenario 1 - Natural Change in the Existing Population
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
Aligned CoreStrategies (RSS)
CLG Projections Natural Change
Ne
w H
om
es
(2
00
9 -
20
26
)
Aligned Core Strategies (RSS)
CLG Projections
Natural Change
Scenario 2 – In and Out Migration in Balance
• Assumes same numbers move in and move out
• But allows for different age structure
• In-migrants younger, out migrants older (students – in at 18 out at 21 or 22)
• Used in past Structure Plans
Scenario 2 – In and Out Migration in Balance
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
Aligned CoreStrategies (RSS)
CLG Projections Balanced Migration
Ne
w H
om
es
(2
00
9 -
20
26
)
Aligned Core Strategies (RSS)
CLG Projections
Balanced Migration
Scenario 3 – Long Term (8 year) Migration Trend
• CLG Projections look back over a 5 year period
• Period of high in-migration
• What would happen if you look back over a longer period?
• 8 years, to iron out peaks and troughs
Scenario 3 – Long Term (8 year) Migration Trend
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
Aligned CoreStrategies (RSS)
CLG Projections Long Term Migration
Ne
w H
om
es
(2
00
9 -
20
26
)
Aligned Core Strategies (RSS)
CLG Projections
Long Term Migration
Scenario 4 – No increase in jobs
• How does level of jobs impact on future housing requirements
• Therefore how many homes need to hold the level of jobs at 2008 (base date) constant over the period.
• ie How many homes need for the same number of jobs?
Scenario 4 – No increase in jobs
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
Aligned CoreStrategies (RSS)
CLG Projections No Increase in Jobs
Ne
w H
om
es
(2
00
9 -
20
26
)
Aligned Core Strategies (RSS)
CLG Projections
No Increase in Jobs
Scenario 5 – Continuing 2001-9 house building rates
• Past completion rates.
• What we’ve delivered in the past continues for plan period.
• ie approximately 2,500 homes per annum.
Scenario 5 – Continuing 2001-9 house building rates
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
Aligned CoreStrategies (RSS)
CLG Projections Past House BuildingRates
Ne
w H
om
es
(2
00
9 -
20
26
)
Aligned Core Strategies (RSS)
CLG Projections
Past House Building Rates
Greater Nottingham Housing Provision 2009 - 2026
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
AlignedCore
Strategies(RSS)
CLGProjections
NaturalChange
BalancedMigration
Long TermMigration
No Increasein Jobs
Past HouseBuilding
Rates
Ne
w H
om
es
Towards Housing Provision
• CLG Projections• Housing land availability (SHLAAs)• Housing market factors (SHMAs)• Localism
– Environmental capacity– Infrastructure (existing and proposed)– Views of community– Local ambitions – economy etc– New Homes Bonus
Joint Planning Advisory Board - Next Steps
• Consider implications• Weigh up other factors and evidence• Come to a Greater Nottingham view• Consider possible distributions• Work up a range of options for consultation• Get political agreement!!• Summer 2011• Publish revised ACS early 2012
QUESTIONS