group 2005-2008 plan
DESCRIPTION
Group 2005-2008 Plan. Merrill Lynch Banking & Insurance Conference 2006 London, 4-5 October 2006. AGENDA. The first truly European bank. Group 2005-2008 plan. Overview of 1H06 results. Conclusions. A STRONG PRESENCE IN EUROPEAN BANKING. UNIQUELY, RESOLUTELY EUROPEAN - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Group 2005-2008 Plan
Merrill Lynch Banking & Insurance Conference 2006London, 4-5 October 2006
2
AGENDA
Overview of 1H06 results
The first truly European bank
Group 2005-2008 plan
Conclusions
3
UNIQUELY, RESOLUTELY EUROPEAN
Banking operations in 20 countries
More than 28 million customers
Over 7,000 branches
STRONG MARKET POSITIONING
#2 in Italy with 10% market share(1)
#2 in Germany with 5% market share(1)
#1 in Austria with 18% market share(1)
Leader in fast growing CEE markets much larger than closest competitor
HIGH GROWTH POTENTIAL
Significant opportunities in the local networks as well as in the global businesses
A STRONG PRESENCE IN EUROPEAN BANKING
Source: UniCredit, 2005 data, pro-forma excl- Splitska, Uniriscossioni
(1) Ranking measured in terms of total assets. For market share calculations UniCredit and HVB may apply different definitions as far as the underlying data is concerned. Market share and ranking in Italy refer to customer loans.
4
A DIVERSIFIED BUSINESS PORTFOLIO ACROSS DIFFERENT GEOGRAPHIES…
2005 Consolidated Total Revenues: 21,140(1)(2) mln
(1) Figures restated, to sterilize perimeter changes
COMMERCIAL BANKING STILL THE BULK OF OUR BUSINESS
MORE THAN 50% OUTSIDE ITALY
Markets and InvestmentBanking
13%
Corporate23%
CEE & Poland Markets
20%Retail
34%
Private & AM10% CEE & Poland
Markets20%
Italy42%
Germany
25%
Austria13%
(2) The pie charts are on revenues ex GBS, Holding, corporate centre and elisions
5
UNIQUE OPPORTUNITY TO LEVERAGE ON A EUROPEAN SCALE THE STRENGTH OF OUR PRODUCT FACTORIES
…WITH A POWERFUL COMBINATION OF PRODUCTION AND DISTRIBUTION CAPABILITIES
European leader in on-shore Private Banking with top 3 position in Germany, Italy and Austria
Specialized service models to serve different customer segments
Significant opportunity to exchange best practices among countries
A MASSIVE DISTRIBUTION NETWORK WITH UNMATCHED POTENTIAL TO GROW FURTHER
STRONG COMPETENCES IN GLOBAL PRODUCTS/SERVICES
Leasing, 2nd European player(2), with ~170 bn loans and ~530 mln revenues
Global Financial Services: a new global factory with ~900 mln revenues
3rd European player for # of plastic cards, with a strong competence center in Turkey
Markets and Investment Banking: a European regional specialist focusing on selective product segments
Pioneer, our global asset manager, with 280 bn AUM(1)
(1) Data as at 31.08.06, including assets under administration
CEE: ~3,000 branch network across 17 countries, about 2X next competitor
Over 3,600 retail branches across Italy, Germany and Austria
~ 350,000 Corporate customers served in Italy, Germany, Austria and over 100,000 Cross Border Client Groups
(2) As for 2005 new business
6
FULL AND EFFECTIVE DIVISIONALIZATION SETS US APART AND DRIVES THE INTEGRATION PROCESS
DIVISIONALIZATION DONE IN GERMANY AND MOSTLY DONE IN AUSTRIA
Retail & Corporate: Small Business served in Retail Division; launch of Clarima business in Germany; global leasing operations established
Reorganisation of Asset Management on a single platform under Pioneer; creation of a Private Banking division in HVB
Global structure in place in Markets and Investment Banking
CEE & Poland Markets: ongoing in-country mergers mostly completed by 2007
Concentration of IT, Procurement, B/O and Real Estate functions in new GBS divisions in HVB and BA-CA; centralized procurement process in place for Italy, Germany and Austria
Markets & Investment
Banking
CEE/Poland Markets
Global Banking ServicesCorporate
Private Banking &
AMRetail
CFO CRO Strategic HR
Legal dept. Corporate Identity
7
Target StructureCurrent Group Structure
HVB
BA-CA
UCI CEE(incl.
Pekao)UCI IB (UBM)
UCI AM(PGAM)
BA-CA CEE (Incl.
BPH)HVB CEE
HVB IB
HVB AM
BA-CA IB
BA-CA AM
ONGOING REORGANISATION OF GROUP LEGAL ENTITIES: KEY STEPS ALREADY TAKEN TOWARDS THE TARGET STRUCTURE
UCI Italian Banks
HVB BA-CA PekaoAsset Mgmt.
(PGAM)
UCI CEEUCI IB (UBM)
HVB IB
BA-CA IB
BA-CA CEE
HVB CEE
HVB AM
BA-CA AM
UCI Italian Banks
Investment Bank(1) BA
Bank(2)
(2) Newco including all the commercial banking activities in Austria; in accordance with ReBoRA signed last March, to be realised not before March 2011
(1) In the long term UniCredit will gain full ownership
Transfer of BPH to UniCredit Contribution in kind of UniCredit holdings in CEE banks (excl. Poland) to BA-CA Transfer of BA-CA under UniCredit Rationalisation of HVB holdings in CEE banks Integration of Asset Management into Pioneer: sale of Activest to Pioneer
8
AGENDA
Overview of 1H06 results
The first truly European bank
Group 2005-2008 plan
Conclusions
9
GROUP STRATEGIC PRIORITIES
Maintain positive momentum in Italy
Increase RWA profitability and optimize capital allocation
Leverage Global product lines and services
Complete restructuring and continue investing in CEE STRONG EVA CREATION
>3x in 2005-2008
(1) Calculated on allocated capital ex goodwill
Restore profitability in Germany (ROE(1) to ~17% in 2008), ready for growth options
Finalize corporate structure
10
EUROZONE MACROECONOMIC CYCLE driven by UniCredit countries of presence with Germany in particular contributing strongly to the 06-08 regional GDP growth
1.4 2.41.7 1.9 5.6
SOLID PROFITABILITY OUTLOOK FOR UNICREDIT THANKS TO CYCLICAL AND STRUCTURAL FACTORS
Source: Bank of Italy, Bundesbank and OeNB data; UniCredit forecasts
HOUSEHOLDS SEGMENT:
significant lending volume growth, especially in Italy and CEE where mortgages and consumer credit remain the main growth drivers
interest spread to benefit from a restrictive monetary stance
benign development of household financial assets also thanks to a moderately positive market effect
CEE GDP GROWTH well above 5% 06-08 CAGR, 3x faster than Eurozone
CORPORATE SEGMENT: sound growth environment across all regions thanks to cyclical recovery; Germany and Italy seen accelerating in 1H06
GER IT AT
2003-2005
2006-2008
0.40.8 1.9
EU CEE(1)
6.11.4
(1) CEE includes Poland, Turkey, Croatia, Russia, Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Hungary, Romania, Slovakia, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Slovenia, Serbia-Montenegro, Ukraine, Macedonia and the Baltics
GDP avg. annual % growth
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GROUP TARGETS: STRONG EPS GROWTH SUPPORTED BY ENHANCED PROFITABILITY OF ASSETS AND COST CONTROL
6.8% Core TIER 1 ratio target achieved by 2008
(2) Loan Loss Provisions/Average Credit RWA for the year
2005(1) 2008
Revenues (bn) 21.1 ~8%
RWA (bn) 416 ~5%
EPS 0.32 ~27%
2005(1) CAGR 05-08
Operating Costs (bn) -12.8 ~3%
EVA (bn) 1.2 ~49%
Cost/Income, % 60.7 ~52
Core Tier 1 ratio, % 5.53 ~6.8
ROE, % 10.2 ~17(3)
FTE, # ~133,740 ~126,900
Cost of risk(2), bp 61 STABLE
Revenues/Avg. RWA, % 5.2 ~5.7
… with steady growth of DPS during the plan timeframe
- staff rightsizing
- growth initiatives
~-11,850
~+5,000
Plan assumes 0.56 Euro EPS for 2007…
(3) Group ROE calculated on allocated capital ex. goodwill would be ~23%
(1) Figures restated, to sterilize perimeter changes
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DISCIPLINED CAPITAL ALLOCATION AIMED AT VALUE CREATION
(2) Difference between total and sum of the Divisions due to Corporate Centre
MIB Private B. & AM RetailCorporateCEE
Commercial RE Financing
05-08 CAGR
Corporate Centre(1)
(1) Including GBS and other Group Companies not included in the different business divisions
EVA ALLOCATED CAPITAL(3)
-33%
+5%
+7%
-12%
+13%
+4%
+18%
+4.7%
~-110
~29.4 bn
2005 2008
3.8
10.6
5.8
5.7
2.0
0.80.7
3.3
8.8
3.5
4.9
1.3
1.0
~25.5 bn
2.7
2005 2008
1.2 bn(2)
3.9 bn(2)
~470
~520
~260
~480
~870
~820
~990
~640
~870
~-170 ~-70
Delta (mln)
+980
+350
+470
+380
+390
+100
Turnaround of retail business in Germany drives strong EVA growth
Significant contribution of all other businesses
(3) Average
13
SIGNIFICANT REVENUE GROWTH ACROSS DIVISIONS ENHANCES GROUP ASSET PROFITABILITY
(1) 2005 figures restated, in order to sterilize perimeter changes
MIB ~13
CEE & Poland Markets ~11
05(1)-08 REVENUE CAGR, %
Retail ~7
Corporate ~6
GROUP ~8
Private & AM ~10
Revenues/RWA from 5.2% to ~5.7% in 2008
14
Cost synergies confirmed(2) at 900 mln
Total integration costs to 1.25 bn, slightly lower than originally planned
STRICT CONTROL OF INDIRECT COSTS LEAVES ROOMS FOR INVESTMENTS IN HIGH GROWTH AREASCOST SYNERGIES CONFIRMED
(1) Mainly IT, Back Offices and Real Estate & Facility Management
Contained dynamic of operating costs (05-08 CAGR ~3% at Group level) despite significant business volumes growth, thanks to:
Indirect costs(1) (~30% of total cost base) down from 3,830 bn in 2005 to 3,690 bn in 2008, thanks to centralization of activities and effective cost management
Rationalization and streamlining of the Group corporate centre
(2) Disclosed on June 13th 2005 in UniCredit-HVB offer presentation
FTE reduction of ~6,850 units
~-11,850 staff rightsizing
~+5,000 new hirings in fast growing areas
15
RATIONALIZATION OF NON-STRATEGIC ASSETS, ESPECIALLY IN GERMANY, TO CREATE ADDITIONAL VALUE
Total non-strategic assets: ~30 bn gross loans(1)
(1) Data as of Dec.05
Performing non strategic
mortgages
20.5 bn
RER
9.5 bn
2005
Revenues/Avg. RWA, % ~1.6%
vs 5.2% avg. for the whole
UniCredit Group
Rationalisation Process key highlights
Dedicated team to run the whole winding down process
Commercial Divisions totally focused on growing core strategic business
20.5 bn low value generating performing portfolio with limited cross selling potential
Inertial vs “accelerated” reduction path(loans, bn) – for illustrative purposes
~30
2005 2006 2007 2008 2020
16
FULL TURNAROUND OF PROFITABILITY IN GERMANY OVER THE PLAN PERIOD
2005
3.6
2008
~4.9
REVENUES/RWA, % ~9% revenue CAGR 05-08 thanks to efforts to boost
commercial activity and productivity:
enhance sales productivity in Retail
boost asset gathering recurring fees in the affluent segment
leverage on cross fertilisation potential in Investment banking
Strict cost control: flat operating expenses
Staff right-sizing
Containment of indirect costs (31% of total costs in 2005)
Asset rationalisation: ~-1% RWA 05-08 CAGR
2005
~6
2008
~17ROE(1), %
Data related to HVB Group ex BA-CA Group(1) Calculated on allocated capital ex goodwill
The numbers are based on the current structure of HVB Group
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AGENDA
Overview of 1H06 results
The first truly European bank
Group 2005-2008 plan
Conclusions
18
COST OF RISK decreasing in both UCI and HVB sub-groups
P&L figures in IFRS according to Bank of Italy rules(1) Profit (loss) and net write downs on loans / Total Period Average RWAs for
Credit Risks; 1H06 figure annualized
mln
1H06 % ch. on 1H05
% ch. on 1H05 at
constant FX & perimeter
Total Revenues 11,939 +15.7%
3,043Net Income(2) +48.3%
Operating Income 5,410 +32.9%
54.7%C/I Ratio, % -5.8 pp
+11.8%
+43.6%
+28.2%
-5.8 pp
Operating costs -6,529 +4.5% +1.0%
Integration costs -52 n.m. n.m.
1H06 NET PROFIT GROWTH OF ~+1 BN Y/Y STRONG IMPROVEMENT, +32% Y/Y, NET OF THE CAPITAL GAIN FROM THE DISPOSAL OF SPLITSKA BANKA
(2) Consolidated gain from Splitska Banka disposal of +367 mln; +332 mln net of minorities impact
56 bpCost of Risk(1), bp
1H06
-4 bp
Ch. on FY05
5.94% Core Tier 1 ratio, % +41 bp
Core Tier 1 ratio increased by 41 bp thanks to organic capital generation (~20 bp) and sale of Splitska Banka (~21 bp); disposals of 2S Banca to be finalized by year-end 2006
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AGENDA
Overview of 1H06 results
The first truly European bank
Group 2005-2008 plan
Conclusions
20
UNICREDIT IN 2008
CENTRALIZED PRODUCT FACTORIES FULLY LEVERAGED
GROUP RUNNING AT FULL SPEED, WITH STRONG CAPITAL AND CASH FLOW GENERATION
MORE EFFICIENT CORPORATE STRUCTURE IN PLACE (INCLUDING IN-COUNTRY MERGERS IN CEE)