highlights of inemi 2013 technology...
TRANSCRIPT
Highlights of
iNEMI 2013
Technology
Roadmaps
Speaker: Chuck Richardson, iNEMI
Pan Pacific Microelectronics Symposium
January 22-24, 2013
Makena Beach and Golf Resort,
Maui, Hawaii
Topics
iNEMI Introduction
Roadmap Process Overview
Situation Analysis
Technology Needs
Strategic Concerns
Paradigm Shifts
Summary/Next Steps
2
About iNEMI
International Electronics Manufacturing Initiative (iNEMI) is an industry-led
consortium of 104 global manufacturers, suppliers, industry associations,
government agencies and universities. A Non Profit Fully Funded by Member Dues;
All Funding is Returned to the Members in High Value Programs and Services; In
Operation Since 1994.
Visit us at www.inemi.org
5 Key Deliverables:
• Technology Roadmaps
• Collaborative Deployment
Projects
• Research Priorities Documents
• Proactive Forums
• Position Papers
3 Major Focus Areas:
• Miniaturization
• Environment
• Medical Electronics
Mission: Forecast and Accelerate improvements in the Electronics
Manufacturing Industry for a Sustainable Future.
OEM/ODM/EMS Members
4
Supplier Members
5
Supplier Members – PWB Supply Chain
6
Association/Consortium, Government,
Consultant & University Members
7
pinfa
International Members
Across The Total Supply Chain
Key Observations:
• 66% Growth Overall Since 1/1/2010
• 140% Growth in University/Research Institutes Since 1/1/2010
Total Global Supply Chain Integration
The International Membership Incorporated Location; Number of Members
INEMI Member Business Type North
America Asia
Region Europe Totals
OEM 14 3 2 19
ODM/EMS (inc. pkg. & test services) 5 4 1 10
Suppliers (materials, software, services) 8 18 12 38
Equipment 9 0 2 11
Universities & Research Institutes 8 2 2 12
Organizations 11 1 2 14
Totals 55 28 21 104
Roadmap
Process &
Scope
2013 Product Emulator Groups (PEGs)
Emulator Characteristics
Consumer / Portable
Produced in high volumes, cost is the primary driver,
hand held battery powered products are also driven by
size and weight reduction
Office Driven by the need for maximum performance over a
wide range of cost targets
Automotive Products Products that must operate in an automotive
environment
High-End Systems
(The Cloud)
Products that serve the high performance
computing/storage markets including networking,
datacom and telecom and cover a wide range of cost
and performance targets
Medical Products Products that must operate with high reliability and, in
some cases, support life critical applications
Aerospace / Defense Products that must operate reliably in extreme
environments
10
11
Roadmap Development
Product Emulator Groups TWGs (20)
Semiconductor Technology
Design Technologies
Manufacturing Technologies
Comp./Subsyst. Technologies
Modeling, Thermal, etc.
Board Assy, Test, etc.
Packaging, Substrates, Displays, etc.
2013 Product Sector Needs Vs. Technology Evolution
Business Processes
Prod Lifecycle Information Mgmt.
Example Product Emulator Chapter Content
Portable/Consumer
Contents
Consumer / Portable Product Sector .......................................................................................... 1
Executive Summary ................................................................................................................ 1
Introduction ............................................................................................................................. 3
Situation Analysis ................................................................................................................... 4
Roadmap of Quantified Key Attribute Needs ....................................................................... 11
Critical Issues (Infrastructure) .............................................................................................. 16
Prioritized Technology Requirements and Trends ............................................................... 18
Recommendations on Priorities and Alternative Technologies ............................................ 19
Contributors .......................................................................................................................... 25
Tables
Table 1. Key Parameters for Hand Held Product Sector .............................................................. 12
Example Product Emulator Chapter Content – (continued)
Portable/Consumer – Smartphone/Non-Smartphone Growth
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
$Bn
2009 2010 2012 2013 20152011 2014 2016
N212.146mvc- value ship
56
98
174
222
275
318
89
$385Bn$377Bn
$361Bn
$324Bn
$276Bn
$235Bn
$178Bn
$146Bn
81
62
54
48
43
Total Branded:
Smartphones: Non-Smartphones:
CAAGR 2011-2016
10.4%
-13.4%
15.4%
339
355
3830
Example Product Emulator Chapter – (continued)
Portable/Consumer, Key Parameters Table 1 Reliability Typical Product Family
Temperature Range State of the Art (production volume) Deg C - Deg C -40 - +85 -40 - +85 -40 - +85 -40 - +85 -40 - +85
Number of Cycles State of the Art (production volume) Cycles to Pass manuf spec manuf spec manuf spec manuf spec manuf spec
Vibrational Environment (PWB level) State of the Art (production volume) G²/Hz UA UA UA UA UA
Use Shock Environment 1 meter drop on concrete Gs & ms to Pass 20G(20ms) 20G(20ms) 20G(20ms) 20G(20ms) 20G(20ms)
Humidity Range State of the Art (production volume) % - % UA UA UA UA UA
Altitude State of the Art (production volume) Kilometers NA NA NA NA NA
Force Rotational Force on MR Gs NA NA NA NA NA
Devices Max Used in Volume Production
Number of stacked die (Max) State of the Art (production volume) # 8 10 11 12 20
Sensors State of the Art (production volume) Types Gyro, Accel, GPS Previous plus HapticsPrevious plus Haptics, Camera, Context Camera (gesture recognition)
Number of Die in SiP (max) State of the Art (production volume) # 5 5 6 7 12
MEMS State of the Art (production volume) Types Gyro, Accel, GPS Gyro, Accel, GPS prev+projection prev+projection prev+medical
MEMS Reliability State of the Art (production volume) MTBF UA UA UA UA UA
Embedded Actives State of the Art (production volume) # per sq. cm UA UA UA UA UA
Transformers State of the Art (production volume) Types UA UA UA UA UA
Passive Components Typical Product Family
Passive Devices: State of the Art (production volume) Type/Size Embedded Embedded Embedded Embedded Embedded
Embedded Passives Passives fabricated into the substrate # per sq. cm UA UA UA UA UA
Max. Ohms State of the Art (production volume) ohms / sq. 10K 100K 100K 100K 100K
Max. Capacitance State of the Art (production volume) μF / sq. 10K 250 500 700 1000
Min. % tolerance State of the Art (production volume) % 10 5 5 2 1
Integrated Passives State of the Art (production volume) nF / sq. µm UA UA UA UA UA
RF Components Typical Product Family
Quality Factor State of the Art (production volume) Q 20 125 400 1000 5000
Capacitance density State of the Art (production volume) nF/sq. cm 0.3 1 10 100 500
Inductance req. State of the Art (production volume) nH 15 30 300 1000 1000
Insertion loss maximum State of the Art (production volume) db/cm/GHz 0.05 0.008 0.0025 0.001 0.0002
Magnetic Susceptability State of the Art (production volume) ppm
Display Typical Product Family
Resolution State of the Art (production volume) Type 65k pixels 500k pixels 1M pixels 2M pixels 4M pixels
Technology State of the Art (production volume) Type AMLCD AMLCD OLED OLED OLED
Color State of the Art (production volume) Type Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
Cost State of the Art (production volume) $ per unit $12 $10 $7 $5 $2
Average Power Dissipation State of the Art (production volume) W/sq.cm UA UA UA UA UA
Average Display Size State of the Art (production volume) sq. mm 2,500 3,000 3,500 3,800 4,500
Interconnect State of the Art (production volume) Type UA UA UA UA UA
Average Display Size (diagonal) Stae of the Art (production volume) cm 25 25 25 25 25
Memory Typical Product Family
Main Memory Type State of the Art (production volume) Type SRAM Stack D&S eDRAM, NVM eDRAM, NVM eDRAM, NVM
Main Memory Capacity State of the Art (production volume) MB 256 1 GB 5 GB 10 GB 100GB
Storage Density State of the Art (production volume) MB/cubic mm UA UA UA UA UA
Storage Type State of the Art (production volume) Type Card/Slot Disk Disk? Optical ? Optical
Storage Capacity State of the Art (production volume) MB 5 GB 20 GB 100 GB 500GB 1TB
Maximum Power State of the Art (production volume) mW UA UA UA UA UA
Minimum Speed State of the Art (production volume) GB/sec UA UA UA UA UA
Components/ Package Typical Product Family Utilizing
Max Component I/O density Substrate Density I/O/sq.cm 500 600 700 800 1200
Average Component I/O density Substrate Density I/O/sq.cm 50 55 60 80 120
Average Component Density Substrate Density #/sq.cm 30 40 50 80 120
Maximum I/O per package State of the Art (production volume) I/O per part 600 675 725 1000 1400
Average I/O per package State of the Art (production volume) I/O per part 7 7.5 8 9 11
Max Components/sq. cm. Substrate Density #/sq.cm 55 60 70 75 95
Max I/O for 50 mm square SCM w/ full area array State of the Art (production volume) # 3000 3500 5000 8000 1300
Max I/O for 100 mm square MCM w/ full area array State of the Art (production volume) # UA UA UA UA UA
Package I/O Pitch, (area array) Minimum Pitch (Production volume) mm 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3
Package I/O Pitch for SCM (area array) Minimum Pitch (Production volume) mm 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3
Package I/O Pitch for MCM (area array) Minimum Pitch (Production volume) mm 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3
Package I/O Pitch (perimeter) Minimum Pitch (Production volume) mm 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3
Number of Terminals - Max Digital State of the Art (production volume) # 600 675 725 1000 1400
Number of Terminals - Max RF State of the Art (production volume) # 100 150 200 350 600
Maximum Component Height State of the Art (production volume) mm 1.0 to 2 1.0 to 1.5 0.7 to 1.2 0.4 to 1.0 0.2-0.5
Maximum Body Size (L x W) State of the Art (production volume) mm 38 40 42 50 50
Minimum Terminal Pitch BGA State of the Art (production volume) mm 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3
Minimum Terminal Pitch Leadless State of the Art (production volume) mm 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3
Minimum Component size (LxW) State of the Art (production volume) mm 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3
Example Product Emulator Chapter – (continued)
Portable/Consumer, Key Parameters Table 1 (12 rows of ≈ 250) Parameter Descriptions Metric 2011 2013 2015 2017 2023
Components/ Package Typical Product Family
Utilizing
Max Component I/O density Substrate Density I/O/sq.cm 500 600 700 800 1200
Average Component I/O density Substrate Density I/O/sq.cm 50 55 60 80 120
Average Component Density Substrate Density #/sq.cm 30 40 50 80 120
Maximum I/O per package State of the Art
(production volume) I/O per part 600 675 725 1000 1400
Average I/O per package State of the Art
(production volume) I/O per part 7 7.5 8 9 11
Max Components/sq. cm. Substrate Density #/sq.cm 55 60 70 75 95
Max I/O for 50 mm square SCM
w/ full area array
State of the Art
(production volume) # 3000 3500 5000 8000 1300
Max I/O for 100 mm square MCM
w/ full area array
State of the Art
(production volume) # UA UA UA UA UA
Package I/O Pitch, (area array) Minimum Pitch
(Production volume) mm 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3
Package I/O Pitch for SCM (area
array)
Minimum Pitch
(Production volume) mm 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3
Package I/O Pitch for MCM (area
array)
Minimum Pitch
(Production volume) mm 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3
Package I/O Pitch (perimeter) Minimum Pitch
(Production volume) mm 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3
2013 Technology Working Groups (TWGs)
Organic PCB Board
Assembly Customer
Optoelectronics Large Area, Flexible Electronics
Energy Storage &
Conversion Systems
Modeling, Simulation,
and Design
Packaging
&
Component
Substrates
Semiconductor
Technology
Final
Assembly
Mass Storage (Magnetic & Optical)
Passive Components
Information
Management
Systems
Test, Inspection &
Measurement
Environmentally
Sustainable
Electronics
Ceramic
Substrates
Thermal
Management
Connectors
MEMS/
Sensors
Red=Business Green=Engineering Purple=Manufacturing Blue=Component &
Subsystem
Solid State Illumination
Photovoltaics
16
Sample Chapter Content COMPONENT/SUBSYSTEM TECHNOLOGIES
LARGE AREA FLEXIBLE ELECTRONICS
Contents Large Area, Flexible Electronics .................................................................................................1
Executive Summary .................................................................................................................1
Business Issues.....................................................................................................................1
Introduction ..............................................................................................................................4
Scope ....................................................................................................................................4
Large Area, Flexible Electronics Systems ...........................................................................5
Product Emulators for iNEMI 2013 Roadmap ....................................................................5
Situation Analysis ....................................................................................................................8
Business Issues.....................................................................................................................8
Functional Inks.....................................................................................................................9
Substrates ...........................................................................................................................15
Packaging/Barriers .............................................................................................................30
Manufacturing Platforms and Processing Equipment ........................................................33
Testing and Quality Control Tools ....................................................................................53
Large Area Flexible Electronics ........................................................................................56
Reliability ...........................................................................................................................67
Standards ............................................................................................................................69
Roadmap of Quantified Key Attribute Needs, Gaps, and Showstoppers ..............................72
Introduction ........................................................................................................................72
Functional Inks: Technology Requirements ......................................................................72
Substrates: Technology Requirements ...............................................................................74
Packaging/Barriers: Technology Requirements ................................................................80
Manufacturing Platforms and Processing Equipment: Technology Requirements ...........81
In-line Characterization Tools: Technology Requirements ...............................................97
Off-line Characterization Tools: Technology Requirements .............................................98
Devices and Circuits: Technology Requirements ..............................................................99
Flexible Electronics: Technology Requirements .............................................................104
Reliability: Technology Requirements ............................................................................113
Standards: Technology Requirements .............................................................................114
System Level Definitions For Large Area Flexible Electronics ..........................................115
European Union Government Sponsored Activities ............................................................117
Activities in Japan ................................................................................................................120
Critical Infrastructure Issues and Paradigm Shifts ...............................................................122
Technology Needs and Potential Solutions .........................................................................123
Concluding Remarks and Recommendations on Priorities..................................................129
Glossary 132
Contributors .........................................................................................................................133
References ............................................................................................................................135
Example Chapter Content
Large Area Flexible Electronics – (continued) Tables
Table 1 Total available market (TAM) for several opportunities in 2020 ................................ 5
Table 2 iNEMI Product Emulators and potential application opportunities ............................. 6
Table 3 Potential display-based applications ............................................................................ 6
Table 4 Non-display applications.............................................................................................. 7
Table 5 RF product components ............................................................................................... 7
Table 6 Devices necessary for display backplane, sensors, photovoltaics, and RF modules ... 8
Table 7 Classes of functional inks and critical attributes ........................................................ 10
Table 8 Ink requirements and restrictions for various printing methods ................................ 11
Table 9 Families of solution processable organic and inorganic semiconducting inks .......... 13
Table 10 Substrate requirements depending on application .................................................... 16
Table 11 Key polyester film attributes .................................................................................... 17
Table 12 Common formats of polyimide based substrates ..................................................... 19
Table 13 Typical properties of Kapton® polyimide film ....................................................... 20
Table 14 Key polyimide film attributes .................................................................................. 20
Table 15 Common formats of polyimide based substrates ..................................................... 22
Table 16 Materials properties for glass substrates .................................................................. 26
Table 17 Comparative typical material properties, ceramic substrates ................................... 28
Table 18 Co-fired capability comparisons .............................................................................. 29
Table 19 Barrier properties of flexible packaging material .................................................... 31
Table 20 Common software for microelectroinics, graphic arts, and printing ....................... 34
Table 21 Properties of R2R printing platforms with master ................................................... 38
Table 22 Properties of R2R printing platforms without master .............................................. 39
Table 23 Thin Film Deposition Technologies ........................................................................ 48
Table 24 In-line characterization ............................................................................................ 54
Table 25 Off-line characterization tools ................................................................................. 56
Table 26 Common reliability tests and parameters ................................................................. 69
Table 27 Example relaibility tests for large area flexible electronics ..................................... 69
Table 28 Published and potential areas for future standards................................................... 70
Table 29 Several critical technology requirements for functional inks .................................. 72
Table 30 Roadmap of key technology needs for functional inks ............................................ 73
Table 31 Roadmap of key technology needs for polyimide film substrates ........................... 75
Table 32 Roadmap of key technology needs for metal substrates .......................................... 76
Table 33 Roadmap of key technology needs for paper substrates .......................................... 77
Table 34 Roadmap of key technology needs for nonwovens substrates ................................. 78
Table 35 Roadmap of key technology needs for glass substrates ........................................... 78
Table 36 Roadmap of key technology needs for ceramic substrates ...................................... 80
Table 37 Roadmap of key technology needs for pre-press ..................................................... 82
Table 38 Roadmap of key technology needs for printing workflow ...................................... 85
Table 39 Electronic device/circuit dimensional requirements for various applications ......... 86
Table 40 Parameters of thick film and thin film technologies ................................................ 86
Table 41 Roadmap for printing technology key technology needs......................................... 88
Table 42 Technology needs and potential solutions for printing platforms............................ 89
Table 43 Key technology needs for thin film deposition ........................................................ 91
Table 44 Roadmap of key technology needs for solution processed blanket deposition
methods ............................................................................................................................ 92
Plus Tables 45 through 65
Example Chapter Content
Large Area Flexible Electronics – (continued) COMPONENT/SUBSYSTEM TECHNOLOGIES LARGE AREA FLEXIBLE ELECTRONICS
Figures Figure 1 PET and PEN properties ........................................................................................... 18
Figure 2 Requirement of water vapor transmission rate (WVTR) and oxygen transmission
rate (OTR). ....................................................................................................................... 30
Figure 3 Barrier performance lower detection limits for OTR and WVTR ............................. 32
Figure 4 Potential flow processes for circuit layout data conversion to printing manufacturing
.......................................................................................................................................... 35
Figure 5 Conventional (contact) and non-Impact printing technologies ................................ 37
Figure 6 Schematic of gravure printing unit ........................................................................... 40
Figure 7 Schematic of flexography printing unit .................................................................... 41
Figure 8 Schematic of offset litho printing unit ...................................................................... 43
Figure 9 Schematic of screen printing unit ............................................................................. 44
Figure 10 Drop-on-Demand schematic diagrams ................................................................... 45
Figure 11 Active compensation architecture........................................................................... 50
Figure 12 Transistors produced by SAIL (left) and a 10x10 active matrix pixel backplane
(right) ................................................................................................................................ 51
Figure 13 Roll-to-Roll defect inspection system .................................................................... 52
Figure 14 Flexible displays for E-media applications (Left: Plastic Logic, Right: Polymer
Vision) .............................................................................................................................. 57
Figure 15 Timeline for organic device and circuit maturity ................................................... 59
Figure 16 An intelligent medicine blister for monitoring patient medicine dosage compliance
.......................................................................................................................................... 67
Figure 17 Workflow for electroluminescence signage with 4/C image .................................. 83
Figure 18 Workflow for inkjet photovoltaic process ............................................................... 84
Figure 19 Cause and effect diagram for overlay misalignment in R2R photolithography ..... 96
Figure 20 SMT System hierarchy .......................................................................................... 115
Figure 21 SMT versus PET hierarchy .................................................................................... 117
Optoelectronics and
Optical Storage
Organic Printed
Circuit Boards
Magnetic and
Optical Storage
Supply Chain
Management
Semiconductors
iNEMI
Information
Management
TWG
iNEMI
Mass Data
Storage TWG
iNEMI / IPC / EIPC
/ TPCA
Organic PWB
TWG
iNEMI / ITRS /
MIG/PSMA
Packaging
TWG
iNEMI
Board
Assembly
TWG
Interconnect
Substrates—Ceramic
iNEMI Roadmap
iNEMI
Optoelectronics
TWG
Fourteen Contributing Organizations
iNEMI / MIG
/ ITRS
MEMS
TWG
iNEMI
Passives
TWG
Statistics for the 2013 iNEMI Roadmap
> 650 participants
> 350 companies/organizations
18 countries from 4 continents
Greater than 7 man years of resources in the development
20 Technology Working Groups (TWGs)
6 Product Emulator Groups (PEGs)
> 1900 pages of information
Roadmaps the needs for 2013-2023
21
Situation Analysis
Situation Analysis: Technology
Consumers’ demand for thin multifunctional products has led to increased pressure on alternative high density packaging technologies.
High-density 3D packaging has become the major technology challenge
SiP:
Technology driver for small components, packaging, assembly processes and for high density substrates
New sensors and MEMs:
Expected to see exponential growth driven by portable products
Motion gesture sensors expanding use of 2D-axis & 3D-axis gyroscopes
Segment maturing, encouraging industry collaboration
3D IC with TSV:
Driven by Performance and Size requirements 23
Technology Needs
25
Technology Needs
New MEMS driven by Automotive, Medical
and Cell Phone applications
Thermal Management for Portable Products
Development of viable rework process for Pb-
free soldering
Cooling Solutions for Portable Electronics
(3D-TSV)
Reliability Evaluation and functional testing of
MEMS
Testing of Energy Managed modules
Functional Testing of Complex SIPs
Low Temperature Processing
Strategic Concerns
Strategic Concerns
Restructuring from vertically integrated OEMs to multi-firm supply chains
Resulted in a disparity in R&D Needs vs. available resources
Critical needs for R&D
Middle part of the Supply Chain is least capable of providing resources
Industry collaboration
Gain traction at University R&D centers, Industry consortia, “ad-hoc” cross-company R&D teams
The mechanisms for cooperation throughout the supply chain must be strengthened.
Cooperation among OEMs, ODMs, EMS firms and component suppliers is needed to focus on the right technology and to find a way to deploy it in a timely manner
Collaboration is iNEMI’s Strength; We play an important role
27
Paradigm
Shifts
Paradigm Shifts
Need for continuous introduction of complex multifunctional products to address converging markets favors modular components or SiP (2-D & 3-D): Increases flexibility
Shortens design cycle
Cloud connected digital devices have the potential to enable major disruptions across the industry: Major transition in business models
New Power Distribution Systems for Data Centers
Huge data centers operating more like utilities (selling data services)
Local compute and storage growth may slow (as data moves to the cloud)
“Rent vs. buy” for software (monthly usage fee model)
Rapid evolution and new challenges in energy consuming products such as SSL, Automotive and more
Sensors everywhere – MEMS and wireless traffic!
“More Moore” (scaling of pitch) has reached its forecast limit and must transition to heterogeneous integration - “More Than Moore”.
29
912.1/105bp
SiP/MCP FORECAST
Product/Package Type
Volume (Bn Units) 2011
2016
Forecast Leading Suppliers/Players
Stacked Die In Package 6.8 10.9 ASE, SPIL, Amkor, STATS ChipPAC, Samsung,
Micron, Hynix, Toshiba, SanDisk
Stacked Package on Package
(PoP/PiP) 0.7 1.5
Amkor, STATS ChipPAC, ASE, SPIL, TI,
Samsung, Renesas, Sony, Panasonic
PA Centric RF Module 3.7 3.9 RFMD, Skyworks, Anadigics, Renesas,
TriQuint, Avago
Connectivity Module
(Bluetooth/WLAN) 0.5 0.6 Murata, Taiyo Yuden, ACSIP, ALPS
Graphics/CPU or ASIC MCP 0.1 0.2 Intel, IBM, Fujitsu
Leadframe Module
(Power/Other) 3.0 5.0
NXP, STMicro, TI, Freescale, Toshiba, NEC,
Infineon, Renesas, IR, ON Semi
TOTAL 14.8 22.1
Internet Traffic Forecast
31
Traffic by data content vs year, both actual and forecast. H-S= High Speed
Traffic; AAA=Advanced Architecture Traffic
Source: International Gatekeepers Inc.
report "North American Network Traffic Forecast April, 2011"
Potential Impact of HPC on Optical Interconnect Usage
32
Figure 4. The Impact of High Performance Computing on the Demand for Optical Links.
Data Center Energy Conservation Critical
33
A 2010 Data Center requires about 25 megawatts of power so energy saving technology is important.
GLOBAL MEDICAL ELECTRONICS MARKET SUMMARY
k912.169bes-med summary
Instruments used to measure and
monitor a patients’ vital signs and
other functions.
Example: blood glucose, ECG
All other electronics used
for medical applications
Example: surgical tools,
test & analytical,
medical IT,
biochips, RFID
Diagnostics and Imaging
Diagnostic instruments that provide
high resolution pictures of structures
inside the body.
Example: MRI, X-ray, ultrasound
Equipment used in the treatment
of specific medical conditions
Example: defibrillator, hearing aid
Medical Therapy Patient Monitoring Others
2011
TOTAL: $91Bn
CAAGR 4.4%
TOTAL: $113Bn
2016
Diagnostics
and Imaging
29%
Diagnostics
and Imaging
26%
Medical Therapy
28%
Medical Therapy
29%
Patient
Monitoring
19%
Others
24%Others
24%
Patient
Monitoring
21%
TELE HEALTH AND BODY AREA NETWORKS
• Tele-health systems range from
standalone monitors to personal alarms.
• Bluetooth-based body sensor networks
can autonomously monitor vital signs
and, in the future, deliver precise drug
doses autonomously.
• An electronic monitoring system replaces
a labor service such as a home health
care attendant, nurse, or an assisted
living abode.
• Prismark estimates that the hardware
value was approximately $1.2Bn in 2010.
• Prismark expects growth rates in excess
of 20% over the next ten years.
311.10/169rd
TUNSTALL TELECARE SYSTEM
MEDTRONIC MINILINK™ GLUCOSE SENSOR
Packaging/
Interconnect
3D Packaging (No
TSV)
3D IC Integration
C2C/C2W/W2W; microbump bonding; 5 ≤ TSV ≤ 30μm;
20 ≤ memory stack ≤ 50μm; 100 ≤ interposers ≤ 200μm
3D Si Integration W2W
pad-pad bonding (TSV
≤ 1.5μm)
3D Stacking
(wirebonds)
PoP
CMOS image sensor
with TSV
Memory (50μm) with
TSV and microbump
Passive TSV interposer to
support high-performance
chips
CMOS image
sensor with DSP
and TSV
32 memory (20μm)
stacked
Active TSV Interposer
(e.g., Memory on Logic
with TSVs)
Mass Production
Low Volume
Production 2008 2010 2012
Don’t care to guess! Mass
Production 2011-13 2013-15 2015-17
Low volume production = only a handful of companies are SHIPPING it;
Mass production = many companies are SHIPPING it.
Cu-Cu bonding
SiO2-SiO2 bonding
3D MEMS; 3D LED
Bumpless
Bumpless
3D Integration Roadmap
TSV AND Si INTERPOSER FORECAST
Bn
Packages
TSV Die/
Package
Bn
Die
M Wafers
(300mm Equiv.)
2014 2016 2014 2016 2014 2016
Die per
300mm
Wafer 2014 2016
Typical
Wafer Size
DRAM/NAND
(plus control die) 0.2 1 3 2.3 0.6 2.3 650 0.9 3.5 300
Logic and Memory 0 0.25 1 1 0 0.25 390 0.0 0.6 300
Si Interposer for Logic 0.05 0.16 1 1 0.05 0.16 300 0.2 0.5 200/300/
panel
RF/Discrete/LED/ 1.7 2.5 1 1 1.7 2.5 7000 0.24 0.4 150/200/300
Image Sensor 2.6 2.9 1 1 2.55 2.85 3000 0.85 1.0 200/300
Total 4.5 6.8 4.9 8.1 2.2 6.0
712.5/294bp
3D-TSV WAFER FORECAST2012 2014
2016
DRAM/NAND
1M
DRAM/NAND
3.5M
kc812.294bp-wafer12-16
Logic and Memory
0.60M
Image
Sensor
0.7M
Image
Sensor
0.85M
Image
Sensor
0.95M
RF/Discrete/LED
0.10MRF/Discrete/LED
0.25M
RF/Discrete/LED
0.40M
Interposer
0.03MInterposer
0.20M
Interposer
0.55M
Total: 0.83M Wafers
(300mm Equivalents)
Total: 2.3M Wafers
(300mm Equivalents)
Total: 6M Wafers
(300mm Equivalents)
Draft Interposer Table
Base Silicon Interposer
Year of Production 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Minimum TSV pitch (um) 40 40 30 30 30 20 20 20 20 20 20
Minimum TSV diameter(um) (D) 20 20 15 15 15 10 10 10 10 10 10
TSV maximum aspect ratio (L/D) 5 5 7 7 7 10 10 10 10 10 10
Minimum Si Wafer final thickness
(um) (3) 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100
TSV Methods and Materials
Via fill method Cu ECD Fill Cu ECD Fill Cu ECD Fill Cu ECD Fill Cu ECD Fill Cu ECD Fill Cu ECD Fill Cu ECD Fill Cu ECD Fill Cu ECD Fill Cu ECD Fill
TSV Fill Cu / Other Cu / Other Cu / Other Cu / Other Cu / Other Cu / Other Cu / Other Cu / Other Cu / Other Cu / Other Cu / Other
Alignment requirement, um
(assume 25% exit dia)5 5 3.75 3.75 3.75 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5
Maximum Number of RDL Layers -
Top side4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4
Maximum Number of RDL Layers -
Bottom side2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
Interconnect methods - Top side (5)
Cu-Cu,
Cu-Sn-Cu,
Cu-Ni/Au-
SnAg,
AuSn,
Cu-In-Cu
Cu-Cu,
Cu-Sn-Cu,
Cu-Ni/Au-
SnAg,
AuSn,
Cu-In-Cu
Cu-Cu,
Cu-Sn-Cu,
Cu-Ni/Au-
SnAg,
AuSn,
Cu-In-Cu
Cu-Cu,
Cu-Sn-Cu,
Cu-Ni/Au-
SnAg,
AuSn,
Cu-In-Cu
Cu-Cu,
Cu-Sn-Cu,
Cu-Ni/Au-
SnAg,
AuSn,
Cu-In-Cu
Cu-Cu,
Cu-Sn-Cu,
Cu-Ni/Au-
SnAg,
AuSn,
Cu-In-Cu
Cu-Cu,
Cu-Sn-Cu,
Cu-Ni/Au-
SnAg,
AuSn,
Cu-In-Cu
Cu-Cu,
Cu-Sn-Cu,
Cu-Ni/Au-
SnAg,
AuSn,
Cu-In-Cu
Cu-Cu,
Cu-Sn-Cu,
Cu-Ni/Au-
SnAg,
AuSn,
Cu-In-Cu
Cu-Cu,
Cu-Sn-Cu,
Cu-Ni/Au-
SnAg,
AuSn,
Cu-In-Cu
Cu-Cu,
Cu-Sn-Cu,
Cu-Ni/Au-
SnAg,
AuSn,
Cu-In-Cu
Interconnect methods - Bottom
side
Solder
Cu
Pillar/Solder
Solder
Cu
Pillar/Solder
Solder
Cu
Pillar/Solder
Solder
Cu
Pillar/Solder
Solder
Cu
Pillar/Solder
Solder
Cu
Pillar/Solder
Solder
Cu
Pillar/Solder
Solder
Cu
Pillar/Solder
Solder
Cu
Pillar/Solder
Solder
Cu
Pillar/Solder
Solder
Cu
Pillar/Solder
Draft Interposer Table
TSV
3D Integration
Base Silicon
Interposer
Next Steps for 2013 Roadmap
42
Product
Needs
Technology
Evolution
Gap
Analysis/
Technical
Plan
Research
Projects
Implementation
Competitive
Solutions
Roadmap Project
Completion
Industry Solution
Needed
Academia
Government
iNEMI
Users & Suppliers
Regional
Collaboration
No Work
Required or
Outsourced
Available
to Market
Place
Global
Participation
Disruptive
Technology
Next Steps: Identify Initiatives to Close Gaps
Completing the 2013 iNEMI Roadmap 2013 iNEMI Roadmap Development Cycle is wrapped up!
Global Workshops Held:
San Diego, CA 5/29/12
Berlin, Germany 6/12/12
Hong Kong, China 6/14/12
Complete integration of chapters & editing done.
Available to Members now.
2013 iNEMI Roadmap Public Webinars and Availability to industry (April
4):
Order the 2013 iNEMI Roadmap flash drive at www.inemi.org (watch web site
for status)
Individual roadmap chapters will also available as a PDF document at www.inemi.org
Get Involved in iNEMI – A growing organization with an Eye to the Future and a
Means to Get There
43
www.inemi.org
Bill Bader [email protected]
Bob Pfahl [email protected]
Chuck Richardson
Contact Information