highlights of inemi 2015 technology...
TRANSCRIPT
Highlights of iNEMI 2015 Technology
Roadmaps
Chuck Richardson, iNEMI
2015 IPC APEX EXPO
Buzz Session 5
February 25, 2015
San Diego Convention Center,
San Diego, CA
Topics
• iNEMI Introduction
• Roadmap Process / Scope Overview
• 2015 Roadmap Statistics
• Medical PEG Highlights
• Interconnect PCB – Organic TWG Highlights
• Situation Analysis
• Technology Needs
• Strategic Concerns
• Potential Paradigm Shifts
• Summary/Next Steps
1
About iNEMI
International Electronics Manufacturing Initiative (iNEMI) is an industry-led
consortium of 100 global manufacturers, suppliers, industry associations,
government agencies and universities. A Non Profit Fully Funded by Member Dues;
In Operation Since 1994.
Visit us at www.inemi.org
5 Key Deliverables:
• Technology Roadmaps
• Collaborative Deployment Projects
• Research Priorities Document
• Proactive Forums
• Position Papers
Mission: Forecast and Accelerate improvements in the Electronics
Manufacturing Industry for a Sustainable Future.
OEM/ODM/EMS Members
3
Supplier Members
Supplier Members (cont.)
Supplier Members – PWB Supply Chain
Association/Consortium, Government, Consultant & University Members
Roadmap Process & Scope
2015 Product Emulator Groups (PEGs)
Emulator Characteristics
Portable/Wireless
Produced in high volumes, cost is the primary driver, hand
held battery powered products are also driven by size and
weight reduction
Consumer/Office Driven by the need for maximum performance over a wide
range of cost targets
Automotive Products Products that must operate in an automotive environment
High-End Systems
(The Cloud)
Products that serve the high performance computing/storage
markets including networking, datacom and telecom and
cover a wide range of cost and performance targets
Medical Products Products that must operate with high reliability and, in some
cases, support life critical applications
9
10
Roadmap Development
Product Emulator Groups (5) TWGs (19)
Med
ical P
rod
ucts
Au
tom
oti
ve
Semiconductor Technology
Design Technologies
Manufacturing Technologies
Comp./Subsyst. Technologies
Modeling, Thermal, etc.
Board Assy, Test, etc.
Packaging, Substrates, Displays, etc.
Product Sector Needs Vs. Technology Evolution
Po
rta
ble
/ W
irele
ss
Co
nsu
mer
/ O
ffic
e
Syste
ms
Hig
h-E
nd
Syste
ms
2015 Technology Working Groups (TWGs)
Organic PCB Interconnect
Assembly Customer
RF Components &
Subsystems
Optoelectronics Large Area, Flexible Electronics
Energy Storage Systems
Modeling, Simulation, and
Design
Semiconductor
Technology
Final
Assembly
Mass Storage (Magnetic, Optical & Solid State)
Passive Components
Test, Inspection &
Measurement
Environmentally
Sustainable
Electronics
Ceramic
Substrates
Thermal
Management
Electronic
Connectors
MEMS/
Sensors
Green=Engineering Purple=Manufacturing Blue=Component &
Subsystem
Solid State Illumination
Photovoltaics
Power Conversion Electronics
Optoelectronics and Optical
Storage
Organic Printed
Circuit Boards
Magnetic and Optical
Storage
Semiconductors
iNEMI
Mass Data
Storage TWG
iNEMI / IPC / EIPC /
TPCA
Organic PWB
TWG
iNEMI / ITRS /
MIG/PSMA
Packaging
TWG
iNEMI
Board
Assembly
TWG
Interconnect Substrates—
Ceramic
iNEMI Roadmap
iNEMI
Optoelectronics
TWG
iNEMI / MIG
/ ITRS
MEMS
TWG
iNEMI
Passives
TWG
Fourteen Contributing Organizations
Statistics for the 2015 iNEMI Roadmap
• > 500 participants
• > 280 companies/organizations
• > 20 countries
• Greater than 7 man years of resources in the development
• 19 Technology Working Groups (TWGs)
• 6 Product Emulator Groups (PEGs)
• Nearly 2000 pages of information
• Roadmaps the needs for 2015-2025
13
Medical Product Sector Issues
Table Of Contents
15
MEDICAL PRODUCTS SECTOR
Contents Medical Products Sector ..............................................................................................................2
Executive Summary .................................................................................................................2
Situation Analysis ....................................................................................................................3
Market Size Prediction .............................................................................................................5
Market Analysis: ......................................................................................................................7
Key Attribute Needs ..............................................................................................................12
Critical Issues and Gaps .........................................................................................................16
Technology Needs: Research, Development .........................................................................17
Gaps and Showstoppers .........................................................................................................20
Contributors ...........................................................................................................................21
Tables
Table 1: Companies used in Market Analysis .............................................................................6
Table 2: Key Circuit Board Attributes .......................................................................................13
Table 3: Business cost attributes ................................................................................................14
Table 4: Key reliability requirements ........................................................................................15
Table 5: Key Component Requirements ....................................................................................16
Figures
Figure 1: #People over 65 between 1960 to 2050 for Top 10 countries by population ...............3
Figure 2: Population pyramid from year 2000 and 2050 projection ............................................4
Figure 3: Projected # of cancer cases through 2035 ....................................................................4
Figure 4: Past and projected rate of overweight people USA, EU and Korea. ............................5
Figure 5: IHS Technology projection of Medical Electronics revenues through 2025. ..............7
Figure 6: Regional distribution of Medical Electronics Market ..................................................7
Key Attributes Example
16
Situation Analysis
17
WW Demographics and incomes will drive increased demand for
Medical Products of all types.
# of people >65 yrs. of age to
~double in next 20 yrs.
Bulk from China, India,
developing countries
Average income levels also
increasing outside
Americas/EU
Medical Electronics must
execute “turn to Asia”
strategy- Build close to
customers, regulatory
agencies
MEDICAL MARKET- 2014 IHS Update
Market analysis from IHS
Technology
Convergence in Class III Medical Therapy Devices
Smart, Connected Medical Microelectronics Miniaturized Connected Delivering therapy
Larg
e s
yste
ms fo
r Thera
py, D
iagnostic
s,
Sto
rage a
nd C
om
munic
atio
ns
Port
able
, patient
sid
e, dia
gnostic a
nd
monitori
ng
Cochlear
Vagus Nerve & Spinal
Urinary
Implant
Gastric
Retinal
Cardiac
Brain
Consumer/Portable Medical Electronics
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• Real-time diaper wetness sensor
& notification
• Impedance measurement
• RF connection
• University of Tokyo work Source: www.medgadget.com
Breadth of applications of bio-
medical sensing & connectedness
will grow into unforeseen places.
Even diapers are becoming smart…
We’ll need 1.375B units/day world-
wide (40M/day in US alone)1.
1:http://disposablediaper.net/faq/how-many-diapers-are-required-every-day-
to-satisfy-the-world-consumption/
21
Digital Health: New Horizons • Miniaturization / Nano
- MEMS
- Self or bio powered systems
- Localized measurement – ex lab on a chip
- Gaseous and biological sensors – military and homeland security applications.
• MEMS and Implantable Devices are a rapidly growing market segment
• New Research / Growth Areas:
- Bio-Chemical Sensors
- Alternative Power and Rechargable Batteries
- Wearable, patient monitoring systems
- RF telemetry, offloading diagnostics from primary device
- Nano-scale materials, coatings and conductors
- New High Density Batteries MnO2, may lead to 10+ year life.
- Very small scale systems
Battery for artificial retina (Sandia)
• All these advancements lead to complex problems involving materials management, energy constraints, data security, reliability and above all patient safety.
Organic PCB TWG Chapter Highlights
Table Of Contents
23
COMPONENT/SUBSYSTEM TECHNOLOGIES
INTERCONNECT PCB - ORGANIC
Contents
Interconnect PCB - Organic ...................................................................................................... 1
Executive Summary ............................................................................................................... 1
Introduction ........................................................................................................................... 2
Situation Analysis .................................................................................................................... 3
Rigid Substrates ................................................................................................................... 3
Flexible Substrates ............................................................................................................... 4
Optoelectronic Substrates .................................................................................................... 6
Manufacturing Equipment (All Substrate Types) ............................................................ 8
Manufacturing Processes (Rigid Substrates) ....................................................................... 9
Manufacturing Processes (Optoelectronic Substrates) ........................................................... 12
Types of Waveguide Technology ................................................................................... 13
Materials (Rigid Substrates) .............................................................................................. 14
Materials (Flexible Substrates) .......................................................................................... 16
Metal Substrates ................................................................................................................. 18
Materials (Optoelectronic Substrates).................................................................................... 26
Quality/Reliability ............................................................................................................ 23
Environmental................................................................................................................... 24
Test, Inspection, and Measurement ................................................................................. 28
Backplane Testing ............................................................................................................ 30
Roadmap of Quantified Key Attributes .............................................................................. 30
Critical Issues ......................................................................................................................... 33
Components ...................................................................................................................... 33
Embedded Components ................................................................................................... 36
Package Conductor Routing ............................................................................................ 37
Frequency Drivers ............................................................................................................ 40
Computer Buses (Main Buses) .......................................................................................... 40
Board Flatness .................................................................................................................. 44
Liquid Coolants and Heat Sink Requirements ................................................................... 47
Optoelectronic Technologies ........................................................................................... 51
Technology Needs ................................................................................................................ 52
Technology Needs for Rigid Circuits ............................................................................. 52
Technology Need for Flexible Circuits .......................................................................... 52
Technology Needs for Optical Circuits .......................................................................... 53
Research Needs ...................................................................................................................... 54
Development Needs ............................................................................................................... 55
University and Government ............................................................................................. 55
Technical Cooperation ..................................................................................................... 55
Design ................................................................................................................................ 55
Material Consistency ......................................................................................................... 56
Gaps and Showstoppers ......................................................................................................... 67
Recommendations ................................................................................................................ 58
Table Of Contents (2)
24
Tables Table 1: Current State of Rigid Board Substrate Technology (Product Boards) .................. 4
Table 2: Flexible Design Process Description Matrix .............................................................. 17
Table 3: Thermal Conductivity Classifications ..................................................................... 20
Table 4: Material Classifications for LED Boards ................................................................ 21
Table 5: Waveguide Performance Requirements .................................................................. 21
Table 6: Test Condition Comparison Table ........................................................................... 24
Table 7: Environmental Consideration on Surface Finish Criteria ........................................... 25
Table 8: Forecast of Rigid Board Technology (Product Boards) ......................................... 30
Table 9: HDI Category Descriptions ....................................................................................... 31
Table 10: HDI Technology Roadmap Portable Board Platforms ......................................... 31
Table 11: HDI Technology Roadmap Product Board Platforms .......................................... 32
Table 12: Chip and IC package expected operational life conditions ...................................... 48
Table 13: Emerging OE Technologies .................................................................................... 51
Table 14: Imprinting process capabilities ................................................................................. 60
Paradigm Shifts……………………………………………………………….........58
Acronyms…………………………………………………………………………….61
Contributors………………………………………………………………………….61
Table Of Contents (3)
25
Figures
Figure 1: Flexible Circuit Hierarchy of Product and Technology Choices ........................... 5
Figure 2: Optical Interconnection Integration from Network into System,
MCM and Chip ..................................................................................................... 6
Figure 3: Optical Polymer Embedded into HDI Products ...................................................... 8
Figure 4: Film to Direct Laser Imaging Exposure Comparison ............................................. 9
Figure 5: Example of Rigid Printed Board Production Flow Manufacturing Processes .... 10
Figure 6: Potential for Process Step Reduction in Conductor Formation ............................ 11
Figure 7: Double-Sided Flexible Printed Board Process with Stiffeners ............................ 12
Figure 8: Laminate Cost of Ownership .................................................................................. 16
Figure 9: Material Thermal Transfer Comparisons ............................................................... 19
Figure 10: Glass Layer Concept in Device Applications ...................................................... 22
Figure 11: Optimization of Waveguide Material and PCB Technology .................................. 22
Figure 12: Test Fixture Density Comparison ......................................................................... 29
Figure 13: Via-in-Pad Structure ............................................................................................... 35
Figure 14: Inner Layer Via Land Layout ................................................................................. 38
Figure 15: Routing pattern for 0.4 mm Pitch BGA Through-Hole ...................................... 39
Figure 16: Dimensional characteristics 0.4 mm Pitch BGA Micro Via Technology ......... 39
Figure 17: Semiconductor and organic substrate technology gap ........................................ 41
Figure 18: Multilayer Interconnection for High Pin Count BGA ........................................ 42
Figure 19: Electrical Performance Challenges for some High Speed HDI Designs ........... 43
Figure 20: Micro via traversing down to layer 3 of a multilayer structure .......................... 44
Figure 21: QFN with Heat Spreader and Land Grid Array BTC Packages ......................... 45
Figure 22: Mounting Substrate Warpage Analysis ................................................................ 46
Figure 23: Glue Dot Solutions to BGA Warpage .................................................................. 46
Figure 24: Symmetrical Constraining Core Board with a Copper-Invar-Copper
Center Core ....................................................................................................... 47
Figure 25: BGA Component with Built–in Heat Sink .............................................................. 49
Figure 26: Solder Paste Positioning Strategy—Segment vs. Dot Shapes ............................ 50
Figure 27: Projected Increase in Embedded
Technology……………………………….........63
Figure 28: Six Layer Build Multilayer with any Layer Via Construction ................................ 68
Figure 29: Projected Increase in On-Board Frequency
(Ghz)……………………………69
Figure 30: One Prediction of Cost Impact of Higher Electrical Performance
Materials….69
Figure 31: Electronic Packaging Level Hierarchy .................................................................... 70
Rigid Substrate Issues • Solder-mask is now being used as a structural material with the adoption of under-
fill under the BGA package. We need to improve the adhesion of the solder-mask to the board to help with the solder dam and the ability to keep small dams in place during rework on the board.
• There is also a need for reduced moisture absorption and permeability of solder-mask as electrical characteristics are affecting the moisture uptake and hence impinge on the stability of micro-strip design features.
• There is a need for sub 25 um solder-mask registration to features and opening control / tolerance to 10-15 microns.
• Develop quantitative metrology for measuring the thermo-mechanical properties of solder mask on a PCB.
• Need a measurement capability for finer/smoother grain copper foil roughness and specifications for finer/smoother copper foils below today’s low profile copper.
• Copper foil tooth reduction and increased adhesion of foil to resin is a definite need as this will improve signal integrity.
• Predicting loss values etc. must take into account conductor loss associated with copper trace roughness and oxide treatment.
• Need to go to lower Df for Low Halogen laminates.
• Ability to insert pre-manufactured components needs to develop a standard process methodology This is reinforced by the predicted increased use of embedded technology in the next 5 years. (see figure)
•
26
Projected Growth in Embedded Technology Usage
27
(Source IPC Market Research)
Flexible Substrates Issues
• The growing demand for “portability” fuels the demand for flexible printed boards in notebook computers, cellular phones, pagers, etc.
• Narrower spacing between conductors and thinner dielectric layers require dielectrics with higher break-down voltage and CAF (conductive anodic filament) resistance.
• A growing demand for flex circuits in high frequency, controlled impedance circuits, particularly for telecom switching stations.
• Growth in displays is driving the use of flex connections from the display panel to the display driver.
• Reduced product lifecycles demand shorter lead times and quick ramp-up and ramp-down.
• A substantially lower cost polyimide substrate or equivalent as a prerequisite to expand flex circuitry into the domain of lower cost rigid boards.
• A low cost, low Dk, process-friendly dielectric for high speed applications
28
Optoelectronic Substrate Issues • Laminated and embedded wave guides are likely to be enabling technologies
for high speed optical backplane and chip-to-chip applications.
• Outsourcing of manufacturing by OEMs to CMs and EMS companies, leads to
wider dissemination of previously closely held package, assembly process
and test knowledge. There is a growing realization that most of the intellectual
property (IP) is in the design and functional performance.
• A major impediment to acceptance of lower cost “datacom” components by
network service providers is the requirement for rigorous reliability and
testing to “telecom” standards, such as Telcordia GR1221. There is real need
for “lite” standards - suitable for products with 10-15 years field life. Examples
include use of epoxy adhesives inside OE packages and non-hermetic (but
acceptably impermeable) materials, such as liquid crystal polymers (LCPs),
which have been used in electronic packages to MIL spec, for years.
29
Situation Analysis
Situation Analysis: Technology • Consumers’ demand for thin multifunctional products has led
to increased pressure on alternative high density packaging technologies.
• High-density 3D packaging has become the major technology challenge
• SiP:
– Technology driver for small components, packaging, assembly processes and for high density substrates
• New sensors and MEMs:
– Expected to see exponential growth driven by portable products and IoE
– Motion gesture sensors expanding use of 2D & 3D-axis gyroscopes
– Segment maturing, encouraging industry collaboration
• 3D IC with TSV:
– Driven by Performance and Size requirements
31
Technology Needs
33
Selected Technology Needs • New (low cost) MEMS/Sensors driven by Automotive, Medical, IoE and
Cell Phone applications
• Drive down the cost of batteries for EV (Electric Vehicle) applications
from: $600/KWh to: $200/KWh
• Thermal Management for Portable Products
• Reliability Evaluation and functional testing of MEMS
• Testing of Energy Managed modules
• Low Temperature Processing
• Product traceability, security, and anti-counterfeiting needs are
increasing
• Reliability, mechanical analysis and simulations
• Thermal and thermo-fluid simulations
• High-end processors will soon require more I/O data density (bits/mm² or
bits/mm) than electronics can support, making optical technology
attractive
• Inspection/test technologies to keep up with increasing density of
component packages
Strategic Concerns
Strategic Concerns
• Restructuring from vertically integrated OEMs to multi-firm supply
chains
– Resulted in a disparity in R&D Needs vs. available resources
• Consumers are increasingly concerned about the impact of electronics products on safety, energy usage and the environment.
– Harmonization of environmental regulations for electronic products must be driven through international standardization.
• Industry collaboration
– Gain traction at University R&D centers, Industry consortia, “ad-hoc” cross-
company R&D teams
– Disruptive technology offers opportunity for innovation. In order to ensure
success, the supply chain must be willing to invest with a long-term perspective
in mind.
– Cooperation among OEMs, ODMs, EMS firms and component suppliers is
needed to focus on the right technology and to find a way to deploy it in a timely
manner
35
Potential Paradigm Shifts
Potential Paradigm Shifts
• Need for continuous introduction of complex multifunctional products to address converging markets favors modular components or SiP (2-D & 3-D):
– Increases flexibility
– Shortens design cycle
• Cloud connected digital devices have the potential to enable major disruptions across the industry:
– Major transition in business models
– New Power Distribution Systems for Data Centers
– Huge data centers operating more like utilities (selling data services)
– Local compute and storage growth may slow (as data moves to the cloud)
– “Rent vs. buy” for software (monthly usage fee model)
• Rapid evolution and new challenges in energy consuming products such as SSL, Automotive and more
• Sensors everywhere – MEMS and wireless traffic! The Internet of Things IoE is making sensors ubiquitous.
37
Data Center Energy Conservation Critical
38
A 2010 Data Center required about 25 megawatts of power while recent centers are up to 50 megawatts
Paradigm Shifts (continued)
• The Internet of Things (IoT) is making sensors
ubiquitous; however, there are concerns about
network security as cyber attacks become more
pervasive.
• The focus in portables will shift to “wearables”
with multiple sensors providing unique user
interfaces and user interaction.
• Advancement of automotive safety systems and
potentially broader use in other segments.
Next Steps for 2015 Roadmap
41
Product
Needs
Technology
Evolution
Gap
Analysis/
Technical
Plan
Research
Projects
Implementation
Competitive
Solutions
Roadmap Project
Completion
Industry Solution
Needed
Academia
Government
iNEMI
Users & Suppliers
Regional
Collaboration
No Work
Required or
Outsourced
Available to
Market
Place
Global
Participation
Disruptive
Technology
Next Steps: Identify Initiatives to Close Gaps
Completing the 2015 iNEMI Roadmap
• 2015 iNEMI Roadmap Development Cycle is wrapped up!
– Global Workshops Held:
• ECTC, Orlando, FL 5/27/14
• European Webinar 6/11/14
• Asian Webinar 6/18/14
• Available to Members now
• 2015 iNEMI Roadmap Public Webinars and shipping to industry (April 9):
– Watch for a press release with times and access information or check the iNEMI website
– Available for order at www.inemi.org and several other sites (including IPC Bookstore)
– Individual roadmap chapters will also be available as a PDF document at www.inemi.org
– Intranet license also available for purchase so company can share globally
• Get Involved in iNEMI – A growing organization with an Eye to the Future and a Means to Get There
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