Homeland Union-Lithuanian Christian Democrats2008 parliamentary election campaign

General situation: 2007-2008

-voter disenchantment:

-public sector corruption

-mistrust of politics

-resentment moods

-stable (unchanging) number of voters for the last 4 years

-looming economic crisis (compounded by spendthrift Social Democratic government)

Homeland Union – 2 past elections

Homeland Union had a sufficiently stable electorate – ca. 15 percent of total votes

Votes for Conservatives

2004 parliamentary election 176 409

2007 municipal election 184 000

2007-2008 on the basis of polls conducted during this period HU would get between 11 and 16 percent of votes

ca. 130 000 - 190 000

Homeland Union at the crossroads

Two alternatives:

A. Seek to woo back the voters who went over to the Dark Side (i.e., right-wing populist parties such as Paksas’ ‘Order and Justice’).

This would entail appealing to resentment vote: using negative campaigning, introducing more polarising issues, stressing the fight against corruption as the main issue.

Ditch the reform agenda.

B. Attract new voters by appealing to new social and demographic profiles.

Research

Three direction-seeking enterprises were running in parallel:

-voters’ needs & party brand analysis

-geographical electoral analysis

-the New Agenda for Lithuania: innovative manifesto-building exercise

Andrius Kubilius’ imageVoters vs. Non-Voters

Andrius Kubilius yra suvokiamas kaip turintis patirties ir orientuotas į Vakarus, vertinantis patriotizmą, tradicijas. Rinkėjai (lyginant su nerinkėjais) A. Kubilių aiškiau poziciuonuoja Tikslingųjų segmente, mano, kad jis nuoširdžiai besistengia dėl Lietuvos, o iš neigiamų savybių jam priskiria pataikavimą. Nerinkėjai mato jį labiau griežtą, disciplinuotą ir įkyrų (ženkliau priskiria Ambicingųjų segmentui). Šio politiko rinkėjai Lietuvoje nori jaustis rimti ir atsakingi, o atrodyti – sąžiningi ir patikimi, rimti ir solidūs.

NeedScope®

r = 0.60

Korupcija valstybinėse įstaigose

Biurokratija valstybinėse įstaigose

Valstybė neturi vieningos ilgalaikės strategijos

Skubotai leidžiami įstatymai

Vyresniems žmonėms

Visiems

Solidiems, svarbiems

Protingiems, rimtiems

Orientuotas į Vakarus

Profesionalus, turinti patirtį politikoje

Galingas, įtakingas

Griežtas, disciplinuotas

Patikimas, sąžiningas

Nuoširdžiai besistengiantis dėl Lietuvos

Turintis aiškią pasaulėžiūrą

Tradicijų išlaikymas, istorija

Patriotizmas

Užtikrinti, pasitikintys

Rimti, atsakingi

Svarbūs, įtakingi

Rimti, solidūs

Gerbiami, sėkmingi

Sąžiningi, patikimi

Nesuvaržomieji

Ambicingieji

TikslingiejiTaikieji

Lankstieji

Nerūpestingieji

Andrius Kubilius

Andrius Kubilius

PataikaujantisĮkyrus

Politiko nerinkėjaiPolitiko rinkėjaiBendros savybės

Korupcija valstybinėse įstaigose

Valstybė neturi vieningos ilgalaikės strategijos

Skubotai leidžiami įstatymai

Dideli mokesčiai gyventojams

Neįvestas euras

Mažos pensijos

Didėjančios kainos (infliacija)

Mokamas aukštasis mokslas

Vyresniems žmonėms

Pensininkams Visiems

Solidiems, svarbiems

Protingiems, rimtiems

Orientuotas į Vakarus

Profesionalus, turinti patirtį politikoje

LyderisGalingas, įtakingas

Tradicijų išlaikymas, istorija

Bendravimas, ryšys su žmonėmis

Patriotizmas

Socialinė lygybė

Užtikrinti, pasitikintys

Rimti, atsakingiTvarkingi, kontroliuojantys situaciją

Saugūs, apsaugoti

Rimti, solidūs

Gerbiami, sėkmingi

High5.19

Low-3.56

High5.250.00 1.60

Negate

PROBLEMOS PASKIRTIS APIBŪDINIMAS_PART VERTYBĖS NORI_JAUSTISNORI_ATRODYTI

r = 0.43

Homeland Union vs. Social DemocratsReinforce

Ignore Develop

Proposed Homeland Union brand

Activity, self-confidence, sense

of purpose

Activity, self-confidence, sense

of purpose

Intellect, responsibility, concreteness

Intellect, responsibility, concreteness

Intelligent and purposeful

innovations and insights

Intelligent and purposeful

innovations and insights

Justice, honesty, transparency

Justice, honesty, transparency

Confidence, security, “closer to people”

Confidence, security, “closer to people”

Strength, respectStrength, respect

Conservative voters: age groups

0

5

10

15

20

25

18-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65-74 75-87

We

lack

young

people

!

“Lost generation”: born after WW2, around 40 in 1990

Goal in 2008 parliamentary election

300 000 votes

Homeland Union (Conservative) voter

• Older. More than 60 percent of Conservative voters are above 44.

• Has higher education than the voters for populist parties. Has a family (60 percent).

• Lithuanian. Practising Catholic.

• Patriot, anti-Communist. Civically minded, supports democratic institutions. Idealist rather than pragmatist. Follows political life in Lithuania because he deeply cares.

• Homeland Union impresses him through its firm ideology, patriotism, and unselfishness. It is a tested, reliable, long-functioning party.

180 000 votes

Very loyal to the party, therefore rather indifferent to whatever the Homeland Union may say or do during the election campaign.

Lithuanian Christian Democrats

30 000 votes

• In 2007 municipal elections Christian Democrats received 55000 votes.

• Their voter is similar age as the Homeland Union voter.

• Slightly lower general level of education. More numerous representatives of ethnic minorities.

• Electoral geography does not coincide with the Homeland Union – considerable number of voters in the regions where Homeland Union is less popular.

-

Christian Democrat voter may not necessarily choose to vote for the united party.

Goal in 2008 parliamentary election

300 000 votes

180 000 traditional Conservative electorate

30 000 Christian Democrat votes

90 000

?I. Voters of other partiesII. UndecidedIII. Non-Voting

I. Voters of other parties

The Conservative potential to attract voters of other parties is extremely low.

Choosing this path would not bring us to the target.

Ratings, percent

Conservatives as the party of 2nd choice, percent

Voters favourable to Conservatives,

no. of votes

‘Order and Justice’ 15 1 3 900

Social Democrats 12 12 37 440

Labour party 8 9 18 720

Liberal movement 4 27 28 080

Total: 88 140

II. Undecided

Ca. 11 percent of all those who have voting rights.

The demographic profile of this group is very similar to the Lithuanian average.

The only distinguishing characteristic – it contains more women and fewer Poles.

Over 280 000 voters

Doubting

Uninformed

UndecidedŠaltinis: Vilmorus

III. Non-Voters

Those who do not participate in elections make up around 16 percent of Lithuanian voters.

More often men, between 30 and 49 years of age.

Group tends to ramify into higher and lowest levels of education as well as income brackets.

Over 400 000 voters

Šaltinis: Vilmorus

Goal in 2008 parliamentary election

300 000 votes

180 000 traditional Cons. electorate

30 000 Christian Democrat voters

90 000From undecided and

non-voters

Main targetgroup

Why they do not vote and keep having doubts

They don’t see an alternative – the new parties are populist, while the old ones have made too many mistakes.

They no longer believe that their actions can change anything. Parties care only for their own interests. Lithuania will never get out of the pit it got into.

Uninteresting.

Why they wouldn’t vote for the Conservatives

Because this is the old party. It made mistakes. And hasn’t changed since.IT’S NOT AN ALTERNATIVE

It’s a criticising party. One that generates the impression that nobody can be trusted in Lithuania. It deepens the sense of hopelessness.NOTHING CAN BE DONE

Assurance that Conservatives have CHANGED. That it is no longer a relic of the independence struggle, but a contemporary party focused on today’s and tomorrow’s realities.

HOPE that something can nevertheless be done.

What may encourage them to vote Conservative?

Value-chargedValue-neutral

Soft

Hard

Administrative reform

Family policy

Emigration

Judicial reform

Higher education reform

State security

Russia

Immigration

Energy security

Message: Values & Policies

Value-chargedValue-neutral

Soft

Hard

Administrative reform

Family policy

Emigration

Judicial reform

Higher education reform

State security

Russia

Immigration

Energy security

empo

wer

ing

the

com

mun

ityquality

through students’ choice

fighting corruption

Values & Policies: Lost in Communication?

Faced with the onset of crisis, what people needed most was confidence, stability, and security.

People needed faith that all can still be well.

The election will be won by the party that manages to convey this to people.

ELECTION STRATEGY

What do the Conservatives have to do in order to provide confidence, stability, and security?

What should they do in order to restore faith in the future?

How can we persuade those who doubt and are disappointed in politics to choose the Homeland Union?

PRADĖKIME / LET’S BEGIN

The main idea / slogan of the campaign

• Combines idealism, pragmatism, and change

• Focused on the future, on positive ideas

• Encouragement to others as well as ourselves (unity)

• Sounds resolute and encouraging

Principal topics and messages of the campaign

TOPICS TO ‘UNBLOCK’ THE TARGET GROUP

BASICTOPICS

UNIQUE /PROGRAMMATICTOPICS

FAITH IN THE FUTURE

UNITY

CONSERVATIVES ARE PROGRESSIVE

TRANSPARENCY, ANTI-CORRUPTION

ECONOMIC STABILITY, INFLATION

FAMILY

EDUCATION

COMMUNITY

Campaign Objectives

I. Renew the image so as to appeal to new voter groups

II. Provide competent and trustworthy reassurance to those who seek guidance and support in troubled times

III. Mobilise the existing reserves through identifying and addressing our voters

IV. Identify, and reach out to, potential new voters

Objective I: Renewing the Image:‘Let’s Begin to Defend, to Protect, and to Serve.’

Samples of poster campaign I

Samples of poster campaign II

Samples of poster campaign III

Objective II: Reassuring the Troubled

-New Agenda for Lithuania: decentralised, public consultation-based manifesto drafting procedure

-Movement ‘For the sake of Lithuania’: gathering prominent experts and public authorities behind our manifesto and reform proposals

-Election manifesto: ground-breaking reforms strategy – top marks from independent experts

-Election theme / slogan: ‘We have a clear plan’ (in contrast to Social Democrat-led government haphazardly muddling through its last months)

41 pav. TS(LK) palaikymo skirtumas tarp 2007 m. Savi-valdos ir 2004 m. Seimo rinkimų (balsais)

-92 - -38-6 - -2

5 - 20

29 - 4569 - 99

5

12 9 4

1

2 10

8 6 113

7

22

21

25

24

26

28

23

27 26 243

Atgauti kas prarasta, jungtis su krikdemais

+ 160Tęsti plėtrą + 80 X 4 = +320

Atgauti kas prarasta, vogti iš liberalų + 210

Stiprinti grupių veiklą, socialinė retorika

+ 40 X 4 = + 160

Remtis vietos lyderiais + 150

Objective III: Mobilise the Faithful

Electoral analysis with directions of use for local party organisations

Objective IV: Reach Out

Internet initiatives (Darius will say more)

ResultsNo. of votes

No. of seats in single-member constituencies

Overall number of seats

Forming the coalition government

Satisfaction

243 823 (19,23 %)

27 / 71

45 / 141

YES

85 %

Expectations

300 000

32

50

YES

THANK YOU