How Does Smart Growth Impact Climate Change Emissions?

Bay Area Air Quality Management DistrictAdvisory Council’s Air Quality Planning Committee

11 April 2007

Dr. John HoltzclawChair, Sierra Club Transportation Committee

Consultant: NRDC

john.holtzclaw@sierraclub.orgwww.sflcv.org/density

Urban vs. Sprawl Auto Use

SPRAWL TRANSIT

VILLAGE URBAN CENTER

METRO CENTER

San Ramon CA Rockridge, North Beach, Manhattan Oakland CA San Francisco

Res. Density (hh/res. acre) 3.2 10 100 200

Holtzclaw, Using Residential Patterns and Transit to Decrease Auto Dependence and Costs, 1994; Newman and Kenworthy, Cities and Automobile Dependence, 1989

3 Hh/Res Acre (Courtesy City of Portland)

Community Transformation courtesy Steve Price http://www.sierraclub.org/sprawl/community/transformations/index.asp

Transform only main street - San Pablo Ave in El Cerrito, CA

As Shown Census Tract Avg. C T Before Transf.No Parking 60 hh/res ac 15 hh/res ac 9 hh/res acSurface Parking 30 hh/res ac 12 hh/res ac 9 hh/res ac

(census tract is 8 x 10 blocks)

San Francisco

North Beach

Paul and Tira

90 Hh/Res Acre

Backyard, No parking

San Francisco - North Beach

90 Hh/Res Ac Underground parking

San FranciscoWest of Union Square 3 x 4 block zone

7 live theatres, fine hotels, cafes and markets

1 to 36 stories, mostly 4 - 16 stories

467 - 536 Hh/Res Ac15% of land residential

limited parking

San FranciscoWest of Union Square 3 x 4 block zone

7 live theatres, fine hotels, cafes and markets

1 to 36 stories, mostly 4 - 16 stories

467 - 536 Hh/Res Ac15% of land residential

limited parking

Urban vs. Sprawl Auto Use

SPRAWL TRANSIT

VILLAGE URBAN CENTER

METRO CENTER

San Ramon CA Rockridge, North Beach, Manhattan Oakland CA San Francisco

Res. Density (hh/res. acre) 3.2 10 100 200

Holtzclaw, Using Residential Patterns and Transit to Decrease Auto Dependence and Costs, 1994;

Newman and Kenworthy, Cities and Automobile Dependence, 1989

Transit (veh/hr nearby) 1 27 90 very high

Shopping (5 w/in 1/4 mi) no homes 25% of homes all homes all homes

Pedestrian amenities low medium high high

Autos/capita 0.79 0.66 0.28 0.12 Auto miles/capita 10,591 6,455 2,759 1,145 Ann. auto costs/capita $8,200 $5,030 $1,900 $800

www.sflcv.org/density

Housing sales prices $295/ft2 $407/ft2 $1,858/ft2 higher

Ann lbs CO2 emissions/capita 14,827 9037 3863 1603

Location Efficient Mortgage

LEM research

Institute for Location Efficiency

Center for Neighborhood Technology (Chicago)Natural Resources Defense Council

Surface Transportation Policy Project

LEM Research

Nearly 3000 neighborhoods (TAZs)Chicago, LA and San Francisco metro areas

How do: densities (3 measures) shopping proximity public transit ped/bike (grid, short, narrow, sidewalks, setbacks) family income family sizeimpact: vehicles (census data) VMT (odometer readings from smog checks -- total driving, not just commutes)

Driving vs Residential Density

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

0 50 100 150 200

Households/Residential Acre

An

nu

al

VM

T/H

h

SF

LA

Chicago

0- 5 Hh/RA = sprawl

Auto Mileage, Density & Stage of LifeMTC's 1990 Houehold Travel Survey

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400

Households/Residential Acre

Da

ily H

ou

se

ho

ld M

ilea

ge

Single Adults

Adults, kids <16

Adults, kids 16-21

Retired

Driving vs Density by Household SizeChicago, Los Angeles & San Francisco regions

<2 pop/hh2-4 pop/hh

>4 pop/hh

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400

Households/Residential Acre

An

nu

al V

MT

/Hh

Driving vs Density by IncomeChicago, Los Angeles & San Francisco regions

Poor (<$30K)

Middle IncomeWealthy (>$60K)

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

0 20 40 60 80 100

Households/Residential Acre

An

nu

al V

MT

/Ho

use

ho

ld

Annual Household Driving – San Francisco

VMT per Household875 - 50005001 - 1000010001 - 1500015001 - 2000020001 - 2500025001 - 3000030001 - 43000

Household Mileage

V e h / H h , V M T / V e h a n d V M T / H h i n m e t r o p o l i t a n S a n F r a n c i s c o

2336.0$

000112.03471.0

312.600519.111520.22722.4

2386.1

Tr

H

Pe

RA

HHh

Veh P

22136$

01743.00704.0102759.015041.0103860419.0

PPed

H

P

TA

H

Veh

VMT

V M T

H h

V e h

H h

V M T

V e h

F o r t h e 3 m e t r o p o l i t a n a r e a s , t h e R 2 = 7 9 – 9 6 % f o r V e h / H h a n d 8 0 – 9 4 % f o r V M T / H h .

H / R A i s H o u s e h o l d s / R e s i d e n t i a l A c r e s , H / T A i s H o u s e h o l d s / T o t a l A c r e , $ / P i s I n c o m e / C a p i t a ,P / H i s P e r s o n s / H h , T r i s Z o n a l T r a n s i t D e n s i t y a n d P e d i s P e d / B i c y c l e F r i e n d l i n e s s

R e p o r t e d i n : J o h n H o l t z c l a w , * R o b e r t C l e a r , H a n k D i t t m a r , D a v i d G o l d s t e i n a n d P e t e r H a a s ,L o c a t i o n E f f i c i e n c y : N e i g h b o r h o o d a n d S o c i o - E c o n o m i c C h a r a c t e r i s t i c s D e t e r m i n e A u t o O w n e r s h i pa n d U s e - - - S t u d i e s i n C h i c a g o , L o s A n g e l e s a n d S a n F r a n c i s c o . T r a n s p o r t a t i o n P l a n n i n g a n d T e c h n o l o g y ,V o l . 2 5 ( 1 ) , p p 1 - 2 7 , M a r c h 2 0 0 2 . h t t p : / / w w w . t a n d f . c o . u k / j o u r n a l s / o n l i n e / 0 3 0 8 - 1 0 6 0 . h t m l

A l s o r e p o r t e d a t h t t p : / / w w w . s i e r r a c l u b . o r g / s p r a w l / t r a n s p o r t a t i o n / h o l t z c l a w - a w m a . p d f

0 300 600 900

450

300

1502

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

Ann

ual

VM

T/H

ouse

hold

Zonal Transit Density

Hh/Res Acre

Impact of Density and Transit on DrivingSan Francisco Bay Area

0 300 600 900450

300

150

2

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

Ann

ual

VM

T/H

ouse

hold

Zonal Transit Density

Hh/Res Acre

Impact of Density and Transit on DrivingSan Francisco Bay Area

Collateral Benefitsof Compact Development

Saving building materials,heating & cooling energy, and water

cuts energy use and pollution

(Phillips & Gnaizda, CoEvolution Quarterly, Summer 1980)

0 1 2 3 4 5

heat, cool home

driving

autos

lumber

pipe, wiring

The Costs of Sprawl:Urban Infill vs Suburban Sprawl

Relative Impacts

urban infill (100 units/res acre)sprawl

0 10 20 30 40

Relative Impacts

water

land; species

pavement

The Costs of Sprawl:Urban Infill vs Suburban Sprawl

urban infill (100 units/res acre)

sprawl

The Cool Cities Pledge, originally called the U.S. Mayors Climate Protection Agreement, states:. . .C. We will strive to meet or exceed Kyoto Protocol targets for reducing global warming pollution by taking actions in our own operations and communities such as:1. Inventory global warming emissions . . .2. Adopt and enforce land-use policies that reduce sprawl, preserve open space, and create compact, walkable urban communities;3. Promote transportation options such as bicycle trails, commute trip reduction programs, incentives for car pooling and public transit;. . .