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CONFIDENTIAL

CONFIDENTIAL

Risk based methods for an innovative

New Product Development Approach

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Koenraad Rombaut

Coordinator Applied Physics and Systems

koenraad.rombaut@verhaert.com

Program Director

Theme 2: Risk management in Innovation

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Risk management

in innovative

New Product Development

Setting the scene

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Why do new products fail ?

Source : Verhaert Risk Training

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Product innovation process

Is it a selection process?

It is a risk mitigation and value creation process

Risk management is key throughout the whole process!

NPI New Products Introduction NPD New Products

Development

PLC

FEI Front End of Innovation

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Incremental innovation vs. Radical innovation

• The danger of incremental

innovation is to jeopardize your

existing Business.

• Radical innovation seems to be

highly risky but the risk is well

contained.

• Effort / effect relationship is

much more positive in radical

innovation.

• “Creative space” is much more

limited in incremental innovation.

Incremental

innovation

Known

Unknown 85%

85%

15%

15%

Radical

innovation

Radical / Disruptive innovation

= no references available !

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Criteria for added value / rule of the thumb

1) Feasibility

2) Utility 3) Desirability 4) Usability 5) Allowance

Differentiating capacity

The mission of NPD:

Creating value propositions

with added value

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nu

mbe

r of

un

ce

rta

inties

cost of design

change uncontrolled

learning

progress in the development

envisaged

learning

curve

Early stage risk assessment: why?

Wait for the risk to come true ?

More freedom to adjust in early project phases

Early detection of risk allows for measures at

lower cost and with less schedule impact

Learn to fail fast !

Source : USA DoD

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Risks / Uncertainty

Management

Managing risk in development programs

Impact of hazard

Impact of mitigation

Risk = events that can jeopardize the

successful completion of the project

Risk = likelihood x negative impact

zero risk is not affordable in terms of cost and schedule

Risk management : The gain should exceed the pain !

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How to deal with risks in development

Development Tools & Methods

Risk treatment

Risk Identification

• Eliminate the hazard

• Reduce the damage

• Inherently risk proof

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Typical risk framework

Risk Management

Risk

identification

Risk analysis

Risk evaluation Technology

management

Development

Tools &

methods

Verification

Risk

mitigation

Requirement

mgt

Risk assessment Risk treatment Risk monitoring

Validation

Source :

Verhaert Risk Training

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Risk based approach

in innovative

New Product Development

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Risk management scope Holistic project view for risk management

• Technical : Performance / Value

• Schedule : Planning / Time

• Cost : Budget / Price

Combine product and process view on risk

Holistic (360°) product view for risk management

• Technical

• Economical

• Human factors (menskundig)

Buffer = risk relief valve

A buffer alone is not enough

Keep 3 axes in balance !

Perfor-mance

Planning

Risk manage

ment

Price

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Risk based development approach

Solid development approach

• Option management

• Focus on criticalities and added value

• Early learning

• Chop your problem & Phase your approach

• Make it tangible

Risk assessment

• Identification (360 ° / product & process)

• Correct assessment

• Setting priorities right

• Tracking and control

• Documentation and Communication

Holistic

• Product & Process

• Technical

• Schedule

• Cost

• Human factors

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Cut Tangible

Risk focus

• Criticalities

• Added value

• 360°

Early

• Rapid prototyping

• First time right

Options Cut Tangible

Risk focus

• Criticalities

• Added value

• 360°

Early

• Rapid prototyping

• First time right

Options

Risk based development principles

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How to step into the unknown ?

Product

• Chop product into pieces physical & functional decomposition

• Assess risks, communicate them

• Identify critical items / focus on them

• Continuous verification Make it tangible / measurable / Visualise

• Keep your design options open (fallback solutions)

Process

• Chop development process into pieces (stage gate process)

• Early verification & validation

• Guard your baseline

• Keep project options open

• Be aware of risks, don’t be afraid of them

• Skilled multi-disciplinary team (expertise)

Small step at a time

Protection

Controlled environment

Experience & Expertise

Small scale

Easy to stop

Start downhill

Critical items first

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Focus :

•Pareto

•Added value

•Criticalities

•Cut into pieces

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Pareto : 20/80

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Identify critical items

How ?

• New for the company / New for the world

• Risk assessment (FMEA/FTA)

• Feature map: key functionalities

• Product breakdown

• Added value creation

• Past experience (e.g. service statistics)

• Cost of failure

• Complexity

• Design driver

• Safety / Security

Make it tangible and real

One step at a time

Steering

Balance

Pedaling Downhill

Traffic awareness

Controlled environment

Support wheels

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Chop into pieces: product breakdown

Imaging

• Endoscope

• Camera

• Image acquisition

Image processing

• Algorithms

• SW

• HW

Calibration

• Test samples

• Reference measurement

Scanning

• Motion stage

• Motion control

Handling

• Housing

• UI

Data processing

• Transfer

• Interpretation

Illumination

• Light source

• Light sheet optics

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User Centered Design strategies

User centered design :

Less dependent of abilities of the user

more accomodating of disabilities

from unpacking until disposal

Matching environmental conditions

Positive & Negative use case scenario’s :

Intended use

Intended misuse

Unintended use

Unintended misuse

Typical technical / engineering focus!

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Option management & cutting

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Stage gate process with convergent /

divergent thinking

Use clear targets & success criteria (right question):

• What do you want to learn ?

• What criteria have to be fullfilled to go ahead ?

Having to redirect is no failure, don’t take risks to a next stage

try to reach the decision point with minimal effort (timing & budget)

Update your baseline at each gate

Gate Gate Gate

Create

Create Create

Create

Verify

Go / No-Go

Go / No-Go

Go / No-Go

Verify Verify

New-value

proposition

Recipe

for failure

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Morphological chart

6/06/2012 15:15

Spray Gap/Film Applicator Single Dose Bath Gum Coater Type Moloton/Paint Roller Wet Cloth Selective ApplicationTurn Plate Upside

DownMist Chamber Surface Tension

Chemical/Process

LayersOverdose Bath Voltage on Plate

Spray Rotating Element Sponge Bend the Plate Plate Heating Bath Heating Circulation in BathUltrasonic Bath

AgitationElectrolysis Aerate Removal Fluid

Rinse Bath Sponge SqueegeeUltrasonic Plate

AgitationCirculation in Bath Rotating Element Evapouration/Drying Baking Aerate Removal Fluid Sticky Tape Gum Layer Air Blade

High Pressure Jet Keep Rollers Wet Re-use Developer Foil in BathUltrasonic Bath

AgitationSmooth Bath Heat Bath

Reduce CO2 Impact Remove Waste ASAP

Centrifuge Filter Filter Change Sludge Form

Squeegee Developed

Material to Separate

Tank

EM Nanoparticles in

Plate MaterialCirculation in Bath

Ultrasonic Bath

AgitationSpray Cone Absorbant Elements

AGFA - SustainabilityCHEMFREE-RP-0002-VE-A3_Morphological_Chart

Prevent Reduce

Sludge/Soiling

Remove or Clean

Sludge/Soiling

Removal of

Chemicals (and

developed

material)

Improve

Developing

Application of

Chemicals

Localise

Sludge/Soiling

SolutionsFunctio

ns

Group BGroup A

Keep high potential group with backup solutions

instead of only “the best”

brainstorms /

patent screening /

desk research /

TRIZ

root cause analysis /

functional decomposition /

touch point analysis

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Option trade-off

Select never on numbers only !

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Requirements vs. design options

Adjust requirements (vs. value)

• Functional :

what should it do?

• Performance:

how good should it perform?

Adjust architecture / design

• Functional: backup options

• Physical: physical breakdown

• System: all building blocks, incl.

enabling products & processes

Compliance matrix

• What building

block fulfills

which function

• How is each

performance

going to be

verified

Include risk assessment (P³) when selecting options

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It’ s not a Santa Claus list

• Aim high to land in the middle does not work in product development!

Why?

• Remember we search for added value,

being a balanced concept

• There’ s nothing like a firm specification

• It’s about a balanced set of specifications

• Agile process

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Option management flow

Functional decomposition

Morphological table Concept trade-off

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Make it tangible

Early verification & validation

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Cut Tangible Risk focus Early Options

Make it tangible

Visualize Test Simulate Review Roadshow

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Visualisation to identify criticalities

Illumination

NIR image acquisition Test sample

Image processing

Stage &

Motor

RT processing

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Review of design

Boundary conditions

• design description

• experience

• 360 ° review team

• quick design

Points of attention:

• major risks

• criticalities

• interfaces (sw, elec, mech)

• design changes

• added value

Bottom up vs. top down:

axicon

VCSEL

laser diode

borehole

first lens set of

classic borescope

half ball lens

glass tubeaperture

light

sheet

camera image

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Why simulation : early validation

Benefits

(wrt. the V-shaped approach):

• More and faster iterations

• Parallel development of hw & sw

• Multiple off-nominal

and error testing,

incl. fault injection

(non feasible tests)

• Early full system validation

and risk mitigation without hw

• Less real-life testing

(= the poor man’s approach)

• More optimal system design

by sw-physics co-simulation

• Improved communication & definition,

leading to better design specs

Resulting in time & cost reduction

Traditional:

• sequential developments = lengthy

• validation on hw = late

Model based:

• Parallel developments = fast

• validation on model = early

Device

Requirements

System

Design

Subsystem

requirements

Detailled

Design

Functional

Test

Component

Test

Device

Validation

System

Verfication

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Simulation methods

Single domain:

Multi-physics

Model based design

design inputs

feeling

derisk

Build model Machine

Control

Design Concepts

Verification

Implement Product code

Testing

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Cut Tangible Risk focus Early Options

Tangible : testing & roadshows

Visualize

• Schematics

• Quick design

• Use case scenario

Test

• First time right

• Proof

• Rapid proto

• Benchmark

• Prototype

Simulate

• Sanity check

• FEM

• 1D node model

• Co-simulation

Review

• Expert review

• Similarity of design

• Analysis

• Desk research

Roadshow

• Demonstrator

• Feedback

• Rapid proto

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Wrap up :

Risk based methods for an innovative

New Product Development Approach

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Risk is a fact of life

accept risk, but don’t invite Murphy

1. Connect risk to added value (user centered)

2. Framework without design strategies is waste of time

3. Think forward generate options

4. Cut into pieces

5. Identify criticalities and focus on them

6. Make it tangible

7. Tools = subjective

only a basis for discussion

and an aid to make decisions

8. Keep performance, budget & schedule

in balance

9. Fail fast, fail cheap

10.No rocket science needed

Wrap –up

How to start ?

Start small

Get some help / training

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Cut

• Development phases

• Functional subsystems

Tangible

• Visualize

• Simulate

• Test

• Review

• Roadshow

Risk focus

• Criticalities

• Added value

• 360°

Early

• Rapid prototyping

• First time right

Options

• Backup

• Buffer

• Requirements vs. design

Risk based development methodology

Visualize

• Schematics

• Quick design

• Use case scenario

Test

• First time right

• Proof

• Rapid proto

• Benchmark

• Prototype

Simulate

• Sanity check

• FEM

• 1D node model

• Co-simulation

Review

• Expert review

• Similarity of design

• Analysis

• Desk research

Roadshow

• Demonstrator

• Feedback

• Rapid proto

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Training program www.mastersinnovation.com

Training: Risk Management in integrated

R&D processes

February (Kruibeke, B) Risk remains a challenge to manage. This training clarifies how risk

management for R&D projects differs from risk

management approaches in Project Management. This training illustrates

a global framework with real-life cases of different risk management tools

for your innovation track.

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Thank you

¿

Questions

?

¡ Good luck !

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VERHAERT MASTERS IN INNOVATION® Netherlands

ESIC European Space Innovation Centre

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Tel: +31 (0)618 12 19 19

derk.schneemann@verhaert.com

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