investor meetings west coast november 10-12, 2008

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Investor Meetings West Coast November 10-12, 2008

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Page 1: Investor Meetings West Coast November 10-12, 2008

Investor MeetingsWest Coast

November 10-12, 2008

Page 2: Investor Meetings West Coast November 10-12, 2008

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Forward Looking StatementThe statements made by representatives of Natural Resource Partners L.P. (“NRP”) during the course of this presentation that are not historical facts are forward-looking statements. Although NRP believes that the assumptions underlying these statements are reasonable, investors are cautioned that such forward-looking statements are inherently uncertain and necessarily involve risks that may affect NRP’s business prospects and performance, causing actual results to differ from those discussed during the presentation.

Such risks and uncertainties include, by way of example and not of limitation: general business and economic conditions; decreases in demand for coal; changes in our lessees’ operating conditions and costs; changes in the level of costs related to environmental protection and operational safety; unanticipated geologic problems; problems related to force majeure; potential labor relations problems; changes in the legislative or regulatory environment; and lessee production cuts.

These and other applicable risks and uncertainties have been described more fully in NRP’s 2007 Annual Report on Form 10-K. NRP undertakes no obligation to publicly update any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information or future events.

Page 3: Investor Meetings West Coast November 10-12, 2008

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The Global Coal Markets and their Impact on NRP

Page 4: Investor Meetings West Coast November 10-12, 2008

Current Coal Market

• Coal prices have significantly increased in 2008 and contracts signed in 2008 for 2009 and 2010 are at much higher prices

• U.S. coal pricing with global coal

• World economic indicators point toward increased global coal demand and a supply shortfall in spite of slowing economies

– In spite of slowdown in worldwide economies, current U.S. production cannot meet demand

– Additional coal plants are being constructed daily in many countries around the world

– New Plants under construction could increase consumption by ~ 1 billion tons per year

• Bodes well for U.S. coal industry and NRP

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Page 5: Investor Meetings West Coast November 10-12, 2008

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Global Demand and the Domestic Coal Markets

• China doubled its annual coal production between 2000 and 2007

– Still cannot keep up with demand within China

– Has gone from exporter to importer of coal

– Taxes raised in 2008 to discourage exports

• China, India, East Asia and Europe importing coal

• Problems in global coal deliveries creates tight coal market

– Australian infrastructure issues, while improved, still exist

– Power shortages due to lack of infrastructure in South Africa causes mines to

shut down periodically

– Labor shortages, regulatory issues and geologic issues in the U.S.

• Increased exports boosting U.S. domestic coal prices

Page 6: Investor Meetings West Coast November 10-12, 2008

Exports Increasing

• U.S. exports increasing – up 19% in 2007 over 2006 and rising

– metallurgical coal at average price of ~ $89 per ton in 2007

– steam coal at average price of ~$48 per ton in 2007

• Exports forecasted to increase by approximately 48% in 2008 over 2007

– Steam exports forecasted to increase by approximately 73%

– Met exports forecasted to increase by approximately 28%

• Exports 2007

– Canada and Mexico ~ 35%

– Overseas ~65%

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Source: EIA and COALCAST

Page 7: Investor Meetings West Coast November 10-12, 2008

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3Q Announcements – Future Coal Prices

• Alpha, the largest exporter of U.S. metallurgical coal and NRP’s largest met

producer

– 43% of planned met production has been committed and priced for 2009

• at ~ $194 per ton versus $112.90 for met for the first nine months of 2008 (72%

increase)

– 94% of planned thermal coal production has been committed and priced for 2009

• at ~$70 versus $51.31 per ton for the first nine months of 2008 (36% increase)

• Patriot Coal

– Met Production

• Two-thirds of met production priced at $134 for 2009

• One-third of met production for 2010 at $166 per ton

– Appalachia thermal coal

• $57 for 2009

• $59 for 2010

Source: Company reports and industry trade publications

Page 8: Investor Meetings West Coast November 10-12, 2008

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3Q Announcements – Future Coal Prices cont.

• Alliance Resource Partners

– Majority of production committed for 2009 and 2010

– Anticipate average price realizations per sales ton will increase over 2008 by 25% - 35%

and 40% - 50% for 2009 and 2010, respectively

• Consol Energy

– Recent deals for high-btu, Eastern steam coal and metallurgical coal for 2009 delivery

continue to reflect a robust pricing environment.

– During the quarter they settled at a weighted average price of more than $100 per ton of

steam coal .

– They also contracted metallurgical coal for prices in a range of $285-$310 per short ton

at the mine for 2009 delivery.

• Massey Energy

– Guidance for average prices

• 2008 $64 to $65 per ton

• 2009 $78 to $82 per ton

• 2010 $90 to $130 per ton

Source: Company reports and industry trade publications

Page 9: Investor Meetings West Coast November 10-12, 2008

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Long Term Outlook for the Coal Markets

• Strong demand next few years

• EIA expects total U.S. electricity sales to increase 50% by 2030

• EIA expects U. S. coal fueled electricity to gain additional market share

over the next 25 years growing to approximately 54% by 2030 from 49%

today

• Developing nations around the globe are looking to coal to supply their

energy needs creating increasing demand

Source: EIA – Energy Information Agency and NRP

Page 10: Investor Meetings West Coast November 10-12, 2008

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NRP Stands to Benefit

Page 11: Investor Meetings West Coast November 10-12, 2008

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NRP Investment Considerations

A Proxy for the Coal Industry

• Landholding company

– Lease reserves to coal mining companies

– Receive royalty on production based on a % of the gross selling price

– No operating expenses

– Nominal capital expenditures

• 2.1 billion tons of coal reserves (22% metallurgical and 78% steam)

• 68 lessees produce approximately 5% of U.S. production from NRP’s 194 leases

• Three major coal producing regions in eleven states

• 2008 estimated production: 59 million tons to 65 million tons

• Coal royalty accounts for approximately 78% of NRP’s revenue stream

Continue to Diversify Income Stream

• Coal Infrastructure and Transportation

• Aggregate Royalties

• Oil and Gas Royalties, Timber, Wheelage and other

Page 12: Investor Meetings West Coast November 10-12, 2008

NRP - 25% of U.S. Metallurgical Coal Production

• 2007 U.S. Met Production ~ 52 million tons

– Exports 32.2 million tons at an average price of ~$89/ton

• 2007 NRP Met Production ~ 13 million tons

• NRP Met Production First Nine Months 2008

– 24% of NRP’s total production and 33% of NRP’s coal royalty revenue

– 15 Lessees of which 8 are public companies

• 22% of NRP’s 2.1 billion tons of reserves are metallurgical

• NRP is highly leveraged to movements in metallurgical coal prices

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Source: EIA and NRP

Page 13: Investor Meetings West Coast November 10-12, 2008

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Historical Performance

Total Revenues Distributable Cash Flow

Increasing revenue stream provides for growing distributions

In $

mill

ions

In $

mill

ions

31%

CAG

R

27%

CAG

RActual Midpoint of guidance for 2008

Year-to-date 9/30/08

Page 14: Investor Meetings West Coast November 10-12, 2008

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Increased distributions last 21 consecutive quarters, 105% overall

Distributions

105% Distribution Increase

Increased Quarterly Distributions

Page 15: Investor Meetings West Coast November 10-12, 2008

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Acquisition Opportunities

• Active acquisition pipeline

• Right to acquire 3 billion tons of reserves from Cline Resources– Cline currently in the permitting process on three mines in the Illinois Basin

– Recently received permit for the Gatling Ohio reserves

• Our sponsor owns over 20 billion tons of currently non-producing coal

that must be offered to NRP when any property reaches a value of $10

million– Currently working on projects in both Montana and North Dakota

• Agreement with Taggart on coal preparation plants and coal handling

facilities

• Recently increased efforts on Aggregate acquisitions

Page 16: Investor Meetings West Coast November 10-12, 2008

Investment Highlights

• NRP to benefit from improved coal market

– Increased prices for both steam and metallurgical coal

– Approximately 24% of first nine months of production was metallurgical

– Highly leveraged to Appalachian and Illinois Basin price increases

– While spot prices have retracted from their highs, still significantly above year

end 2007 prices – bodes well for rollover of lessees’ contracts in 2009

• Nearer term acquisition opportunities

– Aggregates

– Infrastructure

– Coal Reserves

• Long term built in growth opportunities associated with Cline Resources

and our sponsors

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