Ronald Jefferson 1

Intelligence Research and Analysis Country Study (North Korea) 2

American Military University (Current Student) 3

June 28, 2016 4

For entry in the Bobby R. Inman Award for Student Scholarship/Intelligence and Analysis 5[National Security] Studies 6

North Korea Country Study Intelligence and Analysis from a Militarily, Political/Government, 7Societal, Economical, and Vulnerabilities Overview. 8

Military Capabilities 9

Military Capabilities Overview. The military branches that make up the Armed forces is 10comprised of the Korean People’s Army (KPA).1 As of 2015, total personnel for the armed 11Forces is [estimated] at 1,170,000 soldiers compared to about 680,000 of its regional neighbors 12in the South.2 By the same token, North Korean outnumbers its regional neighbors of the South 13by almost 2:1 ranging in key categories of offensive weapons, tanks, long-range artillery 14systems, and armored personnel carriers.3 The branches of the North Korean Armed forces are 15the Army (approximately 1-million, including 87,000 special operations soldiers), Navy 16(60,000+), and Air-Force (110,000+, including 7,000 Special Forces Soldiers). Also, there are 17paramilitary security soldiers, including border guards and public safety personnel of about 18189,000 that make up the force.4 19

The armed forces are under the direct control of the country’s new leader Kim Jong-un, 20who is also supreme commander of the KPA with several other added chief administrative titles 21and obligations such as: grand marshal, general secretary of the Korean Workers’ Party (KWP), 22and chairman of the state National Defense Commission.5 The KWP Military Affairs Committee 23and the National Defense Commission are responsible for a coordinated effort and exercise 24supreme authority over the forces of the KPA. Behind the United States, China, and India, North 25Korea is a highly militarized state with the fourth largest population under military arms. North 26Korea’s active military is augmented by an estimated 7.7-million reserve component, which 27620,000 are assigned to training units; 420,000 are in paramilitary units, and around 6.6- million 28are members of the Workers and Peasants Red Guards, Red Guard Youth, and university 29preparation units. The age that citizens can join the military in the Democratic People’s Republic 30of Korea (DPRK) is 17-years of age, which is the official legal age. Similarly, in South Korea, 31

1 Library of Congress. ‘Country Profile: North Korea’ http:// Icweb2.loc.gov/frd/cs/profiles/North_Korea.pdf, (accessed November 10, 2015). pg 18 2 "Background Note: North Korea. U.S. Department of State: Bureau of Asian and Pacific affairs” http://www.state.gov/r/pa/ei/bgn/2792.htm. (accessed November 11, 2015) 3 Ibid. 4 Library of Congress, pg. 18 5 Ibid.

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the requirements for service start at the same age of 17 and usually last for about 10 years and up 32to the age of 30 as in the North.6 33

To support such a large amount of military personnel and equipment, North Korea uses it 34large-scale military budget. In fact, in the year 2003, 27% or United States Dollars (USD) $5-35billion of the gross national income was used as the defense forces spending,7 which is translated 36to 44.4% of the total budget (8-billion) by the government.8 The large prioritized large-scale 37spending for military resources detracts from resources needed for investment opportunities and 38civilian consumption, which degrades the economy. Thus, meaning the military will be 39resourced first then everything else after military resources are fulfilled.9 40

Additionally, North Korea’s defense budget reported in 2012 at 9-billion USD was 41almost 15-times more than claimed to be reported by the North Korean state capital of 42Pyongyang.10 In fact, “In spite of North Korea's waning economy since the mid-2000s, North 43Korea continues to gradually increase military spending. According to the Korea Institute of 44Defense Analyses (KIDA), official North Korea figures show that the defense budget increased 45to USD11570-million in 2009, from USD 540-million in 2008, USD510-million in 2007 and 46USD470-million in 2006. By the same token, North Korea officially maintains an annual defense 47budget of about $1.5-billion to support their armed forces, but some estimates of actual 48expenditures of the KPA are more than three times as high at around $5-billion, which would 49translate to about 25% of North Korea’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP), estimated to be at $20-50billion in 2015;12 down from 2014 with a “GDP” estimated at $40-billion.13 In retrospect, in 512002, North Korea had an estimated GDP of 22.26 billion or 31.3% (5.5-billion). Interestingly, 52and at the same time, in 2002 North Korea had a projected total revenue and spending totaling 53USD $10.1-billion; so about half of those expenditures were allocated to military expenditures 54and their nuclear weapons program;14North Korea’s regional neighbor in the South defense 55spending reported at 23.5-billion in 2005 with a GDP of 811-billion with North Korea at 1.9-56

6The World Fact Book. Central Intelligence Agency. https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/kn.html (accessed November 10, 2015)7 Library of Congress, pg. 18 8 Ibid. 9 Quoted from The World Fact Book. Central Intelligence Agency. 10 "Analysts Reveal 'real' North Korea 2009 Defense Budget." http://www.janes.com/products/janes/defence-security-report.aspx?id=1065928818 (accessed November 10, 2015) 11 All figures from this assessment have been analyzed by researchers in comparison to USD taking into consideration Korean ₩ (Won) Exchange rates during that time. 12 "The Conventional Military Balance on the Korean Peninsula." International Institute for Strategic Studies. http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-dossiers/north-korean-dossier/north-koreas-weapons-programmes-a-net-asses/the-conventional-military-balance-on-the-kore/(accessed November 15, 2015) 13 Rankings." Countries of the World: Purchasing Power Parity” http://www.photius.com/rankings/economy/gdp_purchasing_power_parity_2012_0.html (accessed November 11, 2015) 14 "Facts on North Korea." CNN World. http://articles.cnn.com/2004-04-22/world/nkorea.facts_1_weapons-program-north-korea-chemical-stockpiles?_s=PM:WORLD (accessed November 15, 2015)

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billion, and a GDP of 40-billion is only distant in spending because of a disappointing GDP and 57ailing economy in the North.15 Moreover, from the figures above, North Korea on average 58spends about a three-quarters of its GDP on defense. Regardless of North Korea’s unimpressive 59GDP and defense spending, the point is that North Korea will spend with no boundaries in 60anticipation of war with the US and South Korea putting their defense first for resourcing. 61

Ground Warfare Proficiency. According to RAND, the character of a country’s military 62inventory and its war support capabilities is a significant category of military power and 63effectiveness.16 In essence, an abundance of arms and fire power must be supported with combat 64efficiency. In the case of North Korea’s land proficiency supported by its armed forces, they 65possess the inventory and have the combat support and maintain the capabilities to attack the 66South without warning; North Korea dedicate most of it resources to the Demilitarized Zone 67(DMZ)17* in preparation for war and or a counter attack against the South supported by the 68United States. Note that the DMZ is approximately 25-miles from Seoul well within striking 69distance to conduct an attack or assault on the South.18 In fact, North Korean forces are heavily 70dug-in with over 4,000 hidden fortified facilities and bunkers near the DMZ with an estimated 20 71tunnels dug under the DMZ.19 There are also more than 20+ Special Forces brigades, totaling 72about 88,000 soldiers, which could be deployed by air, sea and land to disrupt the US and South 73Korean combat operations and attack civilian targets near the DMZ or in the event of an invasion 74by the South.20 75

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15 "North Korea's Capitalist Experiment." Council on Foreign Relations. http://www.cfr.org/economics/north-koreas-capitalist-experiment/p10858 (accessed November 11, 2015) 16 Ashley J. Tellis, Janice Bially, Christopher Layne & Melissa McPherson, Measuring National Power in the Post Industrial Age (Santa Monica: RAND, 2000), pg. 141 17* The DMZ is a trademark of ideological conflict between North and South Korea, winds 155 miles across the Korean Peninsula. Stretching from the Han River to the East Coast, it ranges 2 km north and south of the Military Demarcation Line, covering a broad area of 64 million sq. Ft. Serves as a buffer and border region between North and South Korea, which runs north along the 38th parallel. The DMZ cuts the Korean Peninsula nearly in half. Peace and tension coexist on a daily basis. Despite its name, it is the most heavily militarized border in the world. 18"Background Note: North Korea. U.S. Department of State: Bureau of Asian and Pacific affairs” http://www.state.gov/r/pa/ei/bgn/2792.htm. (accessed November 11, 2015) 19"The Conventional Military Balance on the Korean Peninsula." International Institute for Strategic Studies. http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-dossiers/north-korean-dossier/north-koreas-weapons-programmes-a-net-asses/the-conventional-military-balance-on-the-kore/(accessed November 15, 2015) 20 Ibid.

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Pyongyang’s unit structure for war is equivalent to approximately 150 active duty 80brigades or about 50,000 personnel (US Military Brigade Comparison).21* That includes 27 81infantry divisions or about 270,000 personnel (US Infantry Division Comparison),22* as well as 82some 15 independent armored brigades, 14 infantry brigades, and 21 artillery brigades.23 North 83Korea’s armored forces is comprised of some 3,500 Main Battle Tanks (MBTs), 3,000 armored 84personnel carriers and light tanks, and more than 10,000 heavy-caliber artillery pieces, many of 85which are self-propelled. The MBT forces mainly consist of older T-54/55/59 models but include 86some 800 North Korean produced T-62s which are nothing more than refabricated Chinese and 87Soviet Armor.24 Of the 10,000 or so artillery pieces in the North Korean inventory, a substantial 88number are pre-deployed well within striking range of Seoul (South Capitol); additional re-89enforcement of artillery can quickly be moved forward to occupy firing positions at a short 90notice to strike or launch an attack on the South. 91

Of particular concern to South Korea is the threat of Pyongyang’s 240mm multiple 92rocket launchers (capable of simultaneously firing 16–18 rockets), its 152mm and 170mm towed 93and self-propelled artillery pieces, and its mobile FROG systems. All of which are capable of 94delivering chemical, and biological agents as well as conventional high-explosives.25 In addition, 95the ground forces have about 7,500 mortars, several hundred surface-to-surface missiles, 11,000 96air defense guns, 10,000 surface-to-air missiles, and numerous anti-tank guided weapons.26 97North Korea’s strategic doctrine for war is modeled after the stringent Soviet doctrine with 98scripted war plans. Moreover, which indicates that North Korea’s top-ranking decision makers 99may lack flexibility or creativity? In essence, if it is not scripted or planned, North Korean high- 100ranking leadership are likely to be at an impasse for decision making stifling flexibility for active 101mobile type operations. 102

On paper, North Korea’s armed forces are intimidating, but their true capabilities are 103very limited, given the outmodedness of most North Korean military equipment.27 Around one-104half of North Korea’s significant weapons were designed in the 1960s; the other half is also 105dated. Also, it is evident that shortages of spare parts, fuel, and reduced maintenance, some 106weaponry may fail thus degrading North Korea’s effectiveness. Furthermore, North Korea is not 107able to conduct large-scale training exercise like the United States and South Korea due to 108

21* US size standard military brigades can range from 3,000-5,000 personnel; however, with cut backs and downsizing those numbers have decreased and for simplicity we’ve utilized 3,500 personnel for comparison. These numbers were utilized to give a general idea in comparison to US military echelons and formations. 22* US size standard military Divisions can range from 10,000-20,000 personnel; however, with cut backs and downsizing those numbers have decreased and for simplicity we’ve utilized 10,000 personnel for comparison. 23 The Conventional Military Balance on the Korean Peninsula." International Institute for Strategic Studies. http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-dossiers/north-korean-dossier/north-koreas-weapons-programmes-a-net-asses/the-conventional-military-balance-on-the-kore/(accessed November 12, 2015) 24 Ibid. 25 Ibid. 26 Ibid. 27 "Background Note: North Korea. U.S. Department of State: Bureau of Asian and Pacific affairs” http://www.state.gov/r/pa/ei/bgn/2792.htm. (accessed November 12, 2015)

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shortages of fuel and spare parts, which may limit their proficiency and effectiveness,28 however, 109and as stated above, this does not limit their ability to attack or counter an attack from the South 110or the United States. 111

Naval Warfare Proficiency North Korea’s Navy is primarily a coastal Navy with 112antiquated surface and submarine fleets. The structure of the Navy is comprised of 113approximately 88 submarines, 43 missile crafts, one depot ship, 4 survey vessels, and more than 114334 scout crafts among much other artillery29. South Korea’s Navy weighs in at 43 subs, 6- 115missile destroyers, and 9-frigates. Figure 1-1 below depicts an example of a frigate ship; from 116this armory of the North Korean Navy, the RAND document classifies these defense systems as 117anti-surface and anti-air warfare with surface ships. RAND also states that coastal defense and 118mining represent the most primitive naval war fighting competency in the capabilities-based 119methodology.30 In essence, personnel operating the usual small vessels to protect and defend the 120coastal waters must be competent in these areas. 121

Although a 60,000+ Naval force, North Korea is an agile force, but a fundamental coastal 122defense force meaning most of its vessels are small patrol sized ships only capable of traveling 123up to 50 nautical miles from North Korea’s coast; However, capable of policing and patrolling 124North Korea’s territorial waters.31 We know that North Korea is territorial and capable of 125policing their waters because of the controversial sinking of the South Korean destroyer Cheonan 126in 2010, which is being reported as instigated by the North Korean Navy because of possible 127territorial infringement by the South. Arguably, it is believed that the event in 2010 was from 128escalated tension carried over from 2009 in a dispute on the waters because of the South Korean 129Navy firing on a North Korean ship, allegedly for crossing territorial waters.32 See Figure 1-2 130below which depicts the Northern Line Limit established in 1953 and a snap shot of the 131territorial boundary to include the actual firing incident. Originally, the boundary limits were 132established to keep South Koreans out of North Korean waters. However, since then has evolved 133into a limit or boundary used more by the South to deter North Koreans from coming into South 134Korean waters frequented by North Korean fisherman. 135

28 Ibid. 29 Library of Congress pg. 19 30 RAND., pg. 43 31 "Military Forces." Defense Intelligence Agency. October 1991. http://www.fas.org/irp/dia/product/knfms/knfms_chp5.html (accessed November 16, 2015) 32 Arnold, Terrell E. "Sinking of The Cheonan & The N Korea Problem." July 26, 2010. http://rense.com/general91/sink.htm (accessed November 16, 2015)

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Figure 1-2 138

On the Contrary, the North Korean Navy is an independent branch of the KPA and 139command and control is exercised from the North Korean Capital of Pyongyang. Not to 140undermine its small fleet mentioned above, the Navy is capable of conducting inshore defensive 141operations, submarine operations against merchant shipping and guerilla naval combatants, 142offensive and defensive mining operations, and conventional raids. Because of the general 143variation of North Korean ship types, the North Korean Navy has a limited capacity to carry out 144missions such as sea control or denial and antisubmarine operations.33 145

The North Korean Navy’s primary mission is to conduct offensive operations supporting 146military actions against South Korea, explicitly by inserting small-scale amphibious operations 147and Special Operations Forces along the coast.34 The Navy’s secondary mission is patrolling and 148protecting their coastal waters; The Navy has a limited capability to conduct rocket and shore 149attacks against selected coastal targets. However, any North Korean force attempting to engage 150in these operations would be at risk from both air and surface combatants because of poor air 151defense and detection capabilities.35 Continuing to build attack warships, North Korea has tried 152to strengthen its naval capabilities through developing new ground-to-sea missile systems, such 153as extending the striking range of the Silkworm missiles. North Korea also deploys 80-95 km-154

33 Military." Korea's People's Army Navy. http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/dprk/Navy.htm (accessed November 16, 2015) 34 Ibid. 35 Ibid.

Figure 1-1 to the right.

A frigate ship is a medium size square-rigged warship of the 18th and 19th centuries; A warship larger than a destroyer and smaller than a cruiser. The term has been used for warships of many sizes and roles across eras; An obsolete type of sailing warship with a single continuous gun deck, typically used for patrolling, blockading, etc., but not in line of battle.

Figure 1-2 Depicts the Northern Line Limit and South Korean firing on a North Korean Ship in a 2010 event.

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range ground-to-ship samlet and silkworm missiles on both east and west coasts. Silkworm 155missiles, deployed in the forward area can launch anti-ship attacks as far as Tokjok-do in the 156Yellow Sea and Sokcho and Yang yang on the east coast (Average is about 50-70 miles for ship 157attacks for the Yellow Sea and East Coast); Coastal defense artillery includes 122-mm, 130-mm, 158and 152-mm systems. The Naval Command has two separate fleets: the East Sea Fleet36* and 159Yellow Sea Fleet,37* with sixteen combatant groups. The fleets do not exchange vessels and their 160areas of operations (threat based), and missions determine their organizational structure; mutual 161support is difficult at best. 162

Air Warfare Proficiency. A country Air Warfare Proficiency (AWP) can be measured 163and weighed by its supportive bases related to the size. This consists of passive and active 164defensive measures for its aircraft, survivability, command and control to include critical 165logistics such as Petroleum Oil Lubricants (POL) and ammunition.38 On that note, let’s take a 166look at whether North Korea measures up or not? The North Korean air-force has 80 bombers, 167over 541 ground fighters, 324 armed helicopters, totaling over 1,000 aircraft with no air craft 168carriers and a large investment in their air and ground missiles. In addition, North Korea has over 16970 functional airports to support and launch their fleet.39 The weaponry defined here classifies 170these warfare defense systems as basic and elementary for a strategic strike. In essence, their 171capabilities do not match up to the rest of the world’s Air-force fleets because of their inability to 172carry out comprehensive strategic strikes and large-scale offensive type attacks. Regarding 173elementary, North Koreas primary goal is to counter and be prepared for an attack from the 174South and the US. Simply meaning North Korea’s fleet of air warfare is not designed to counter 175large-scale offensive attacks hence the term elementary. 176

In comparison, the South has a similar fleet of Air Warfare totaling over 1,000 aircraft, 177over 700 serviceable Helicopters, over 600 ground fighters, and over 100 bombers. Additionally, 178like its neighbor in the North, South Korea has no reported Air-craft carriers with just over 100 179airports to support and launch their fleet, but the North Korean Air-Force continues to struggle. 180With logistics issues, shortage of fuel, the quality of parts to include the age of their aircraft, it 181reduces their AWP and the threat.40 Although it is speculated that North Korea is believed to 182have a larger Air-Force than its neighbors in the South, however, with elementary weapon 183systems, minimal vintage variety of aircraft, to include insufficient pilot training increasingly 184undermines it is aerial capabilities and AWP.41 Moreover, the one thing we have not discussed is 185

36*The East Sea Fleet, with ten squadrons [versus nine in the early 1990s] and around 470 vessels [versus 400 in the early 1990s], is headquartered at T'oejo-dong, with major bases at Najin and Wonsan and secondary bases at Ch'aho, Ch'angjn, Mayangdo, and Puam-ni near the DMZ. 37*The Yellow Sea Fleet, made up of six squadrons [versus five in the early 1990s] and around 300 vessels, is headquartered at Namp'o, with major bases at Pip'a-got and Sagot and smaller bases at Ch'o-do and Tasa-ri 38 RAND., pg. 139 39 "Global Firepower - 2012 World Military Strength Ranking." http://www.globalfirepower.com/(accessed November 10, 2015) 40 O'Carroll, Chad. "The Asymmetrical Challenges of North Korea's Air-Force: The Peninsula." June 05, 2012. http://blog.keia.org/2012/06/the-asymmetrical-challenges-of-north-koreas-air-force/(accessed November 10, 2015) 41 Ibid.

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North Korea’s biggest arsenal, which is their highly proliferated nuclear weapons program, 186which the South does not have. 187

Closing remarks. Figure 1-3 below depicts North Korea’s arsenal of Nuclear weapons 188ranging from 500-6000 miles’ launch capabilities into the atmosphere. Testing and development 189of these nuclear weapons to include advance versions is still to be determined, yet remains a 190world threat. North Korea utilizes their highly proliferated Nuclear weapons program to leverage 191cohesion with the world and the international community. North Korea knows its ground, air, 192and Naval proficiency struggles, but will utilize their nuclear weapons program to make up the 193differences to leverage cohesion and cooperation from the international community; Although 194world rankings in 2011 places North Korea’s total Military strength at a distant 22 behind South 195Korea at 7, Japan at 9, China 3, and the United States at Number 1,42 it can be assessed that those 196figures and rankings are accurate and conclusive based on the size of the North Korean Army 197and their highly proliferated nuclear weapons program. As mentioned earlier, North Korea on 198paper is impressive; however, very likely to fold and not able to sustain prolong battles because 199of their lack of proficiency and training to include its poor logistical support and aging 200equipment. History has dictated that self-proclaimed resourced highly proliferated militarized 201states has resulted in failure with a vested interest in Nuclear weapons as that was proven by the 202fall of the former Soviet Union, which North Korea has desperately idolized for years and still do 203to present day. Although North Korea may not have a stellar strategic military capable of 204carrying out large-scale offensive operations, their highly proliferated Nuclear weapons program 205are not to be undermined and remains a world threat. North Korea will continue to flex their 206military might and boast to the rest of the world by nuclear weapons testing to yield respect and 207avoid an invasion— North Korea’s large-scale defense spending and ultimate goal is to prepare 208for an offensive counter attack against South Korea and an invasion by the US as long as they 209remain in power. Figure 1-3 210

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42 Quoted from "Global Firepower - 2012 World Military Strength Ranking

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Figure 1-3 Above43 213

Note: The figures on North Korea’s Armed forces utilized in this Military Capabilities 214assessment (overview) were taken from various sources for the best analysis and comparison. 215Thus, sources that report on North Korea’s military numbers will likely vary and differ from 216source to source. This is because North Korea is a very secretive and undisclosed society and 217estimations for accuracy is difficult to quantify. 218

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43 Durden, Tyler. "Comparison of North and South Korea's Military Capabilities." ZeroHedge. November 23, 2010. http://www.zerohedge.com/article/comparison-north-and-south-koreas-military-capabilities. (accessed November 16, 2015)

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Bibliography 235

"Analysts Reveal 'real' North Korea 2009 Defense Budget." 236http://www.janes.com/products/janes/defence-security-report.aspx?id=1065928818 237(accessed November 10, 2015) 238

Arnold, Terrell E. "Sinking of The Cheonan & The N Korea Problem." July 26, 2010. 239http://rense.com/general91/sink.htm (accessed November 16, 2015) 240

Ashley J. Tellis, Janice Bially, Christopher Layne & Melissa McPherson, Measuring National 241Power in the Post Industrial Age (Santa Monica: RAND, 2000), pg. 43,139, 141 242

"Background Note: North Korea. U.S. Department of State: Bureau of Asian and Pacific affairs” 243http://www.state.gov/r/pa/ei/bgn/2792.htm. (accessed November 11, 2015) 244

Durden, Tyler. "Comparison of North and South Korea's Military Capabilities." ZeroHedge. 245November 23, 2010. http://www.zerohedge.com/article/comparison-north-and-south-246koreas-military-capabilities. (accessed November 16, 2015) 247

"Facts on North Korea." CNN World. http://articles.cnn.com/2004-04-24822/world/nkorea.facts_1_weapons-program-north-korea-chemical-249stockpiles?_s=PM:WORLD (accessed November 11, 2015) 250

"Global Firepower - 2012 World Military Strength Ranking." http://www.globalfirepower.com/ 251(accessed November 10, 2015) 252

Library of Congress. ‘Country Profile: North Korea’ 253http:// Icweb2.loc.gov/frd/cs/profiles/North_Korea.pdf, (accessed November 10, 2015). 254pg. 18 255

"Military Forces." Defense Intelligence Agency. October 1991. 256http://www.fas.org/irp/dia/product/knfms/knfms_chp5.html (accessed November 16, 2572015) 258

Military." Korea's People's Army Navy. 259http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/dprk/Navy.htm (accessed November 16, 2602015) 261

"North Korea's Capitalist Experiment." Council on Foreign Relations. 262http://www.cfr.org/economics/north-koreas-capitalist-experiment/p10858 (accessed 263November 11, 2015) 264

O'Carroll, Chad. "The Asymmetrical Challenges of North Korea's Air-Force: The Peninsula." 265June 05, 2012. http://blog.keia.org/2012/06/the-asymmetrical-challenges-of-north-koreas-266air-force/ (accessed November 10, 2015) 267

Rankings." Countries of the World: Purchasing Power Parity” 268http://www.photius.com/rankings/economy/gdp_purchasing_power_parity_2012_0.html 269(accessed November 11, 2015) 270

"The Conventional Military Balance on the Korean Peninsula." International Institute for 271Strategic Studies. http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-dossiers/north-korean-272

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dossier/north-koreas-weapons-programmes-a-net-asses/the-conventional-military-273balance-on-the-kore/ (accessed November 11, 2015) 274

The World Fact Book." Central Intelligence Agency. 275https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/kn.html (accessed 276November 10, 2015) 277

Political/Government Overview: 278

Purpose: To analyze and provide an assessment of North Korea’s political and government 279factors to include relative composition and level of power in the 21st Century but not limited to… 280

a. Government Overview. Following North Korea’s liberation and declared independence from 281South Korea in 1948, North Korea was re-established as the Democratic People’s Republic of 282Korea (DPRK) marking its separation from South Korea.44 On the other-hand, with adopted 283totalitarian rule and communism comparatively to the former Soviet Union, North Korea’s 284government can be assessed as rigid and highly personalized under the rule of man with ultimate 285loyalty to now President Kim Jong-un.45 The governing or ruling party of North Korea is housed 286under the Democratic Front for the Reunification of the Fatherland, which are comprised of three 287smaller political parties;46 the Korean Worker’s Party (KWP) (majority party), (minor parties); 288Chondoist Chongu Party, and the Korean Social Democratic Party (SDP) together help form the 289North Korean government, nominate candidates for office, direct the country, and hold seats in 290the Supreme People’s Assembly (SPA). Comparatively, like the United States system of 291government without the added democracy, North Korea has an Executive, Legislative, and 292Judicial branch. Under President Kim Jong-un, the executive branch backed by the SPA has the 293inherent responsibility of directing the country under its strict assessed dictatorship and 294totalitarian-style rule. The Legislative branch, which consists of a unicameral SPA is responsible 295for strict and controlled oversight of elected members within the SPA often without any 296opposition from elected officials.47 And lastly, the judicial branch that interprets and exercises 297the country’s strict laws is a central court system where members are also elected by the SPA 298and acts as a strict proletarian weapon for the country’s dictatorship.48 Collaboratively, these 299three branches are responsible for governing a state assessed to be about the size of Mississippi 300aggregately consisting of 9 provinces, 18 districts, racially majority Korean with a small Chinese 30144 "Bureau of East Asian and Pacific Affairs." U.S. Department of State. http://www.state.gov/r/pa/ei/bgn/2792.htm (accessed October 09, 2015). 45 "North Korean Government." Maps of the World. http://www.mapsofworld.com/north-korea/government/ (accessed October 9, 2015). 46 Ibid. 47 "The World Fact Book." Central Intelligence Agency. https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/kn.html (accessed October 10, 2015) 48 Ibid.

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and Japanese community;49 Autonomous religious beliefs in the country are almost non-existent, 302and government-sponsored religious groups are provided to deceive and provide an illusion of 303religious freedom to the outside world.50 The military backed by its government indoctrinate and 304deceive its citizens with strict ideology and state beliefs with little to no transparency to the 305outside world. 306

b. Extent of Elite Cohesion. According to the U.S. Department of State and as mentioned above, 307there are three political parties that are allowed to exist by name in North Korea.51 Additionally, 308these parties direct and control the country under a strict highly centralized communist system. 309Those parties are: The “Major party - Korean Workers' Party or KWP controlled by President 310Kim Jong-un; minor parties - Chondoist Chongu Party ran by Ryu Mi Yong (under the KWP 311control), SDP Kim Yong Dae (under KWP control).”52 Of note, the leadership in these positions 312are always subject to change except for those controlled and held by the President and until his 313next successor, but the President does have the power to delegate his authority. However, under 314these recognized controlling parties, the oppressed are its people amongst a society of great 315social and political inequalities where the government is the elite and the people’s sole allocator 316of resources.53With an assessed comparison to the former Soviet Union regarding their strict 317communist ideology, privileged and elite power is unicameral with the KWP as the center of 318gravity and control; Minority parties do relish distinct privileges and social statues as well; 319however, it is leveraged and strictly monitored by the KWP.54 In essence, it is implied that the 320state’s capacity for self-control is inevitably a function of the coherence demonstrated by its 321political elite.55 In fact according to RAND, the political elite is “an entity that can be defined as 322those individuals or groups who possess varying degrees of either high traditional status, 323economic influence, administrative power, or coercive capacity.”56 The consensus of power lies 324within the three parties with little to no opposition. Those who seek to oppose the elite, which is 325

49 Ibid.50 Ibid. 51 Quoted from the U.S. Department of State 52 Direct Quote from the CIA World Fact book 53Savada, Andrea Matles. North Korea: A Country Study. Washington D.C.: GPO for the library of Congress, 1993. http://countrystudies.us/north-korea/ (accessed October 11, 2015).54 Quoted from North Korea Country Study 55Ashley J. Tellis, Janice Bially, Christopher Layne & Melissa McPherson, Measuring National Power in the Post Industrial Age (Santa Monica: RAND, 2000), p110. 56 Ibid.

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almost nonexistent are jailed, tortured, forced into harsh labor detention camps, often exiled and 326isolated from society in concentrated areas in undisclosed locations and some cases even killed.57 327

b. Substantive Rationality-State Ideology. On the other-hand, with the government’s strict 328rationale and control, its people are infinitely oppressed and suffer from the harsh realities of 329forced labor; Moreover, with only favorable considerations by the government for people from 330acceptable skilled backgrounds such as defense industries, farming, heaving mining but not 331limited to.58In fact according to a human rights report, North Korean economics is centered on 332forced labor where the government will force its people to work at jobs for little to no wages 333with subsidies for pay in some cases being food and allotted rations. Furthermore, resulting in 334the collapse of an already oppressed society whose economy is crippled because the labor is ill-335defined regarding rationale of democracy. Such unfavorable circumstances can also be attributed 336to waning financial support by neighboring countries such as South Korea and China.59 Also, the 337U.S. along with its allies has imposed strict sanctions on North Korea because of the lack of 338transparency in their operations and nuclear weapon programs;60 This includes limited and 339staggered trade with other countries to include sanctions and limited external influence. 340Unfortunately, the extent of rationale and ideology can be assessed as porous and ill-defined. 341

c. National Goals. North Korea’s national goal at one point was to reunite the peninsula meaning 342the North and South, which was the reason for the Korean War in 1950. Following the stalemate 343military attempt and devastation by the war, North Korea has struggled ever since to gain 344political and international recognition as the sole government of the Korean peninsula for which 345they arguably continue to claim.61North Korea still tries to overshadow South Korea politically 346and economically. In fact, Pyongyang and their political elite believe the political, economic, and 347military assistance and cooperation between the Republic of Korea, South Korea, and the United 348States significantly hinders its National goals, but not just limited to these assessed outside 349influences.62 North Korea’s assessed political ideology regarding their national goals is to limit 350national interest and attempt to build their economy and military with its own resources. The 351political elite of Pyongyang places heavy emphasis and focus national efforts on its military; it 352

57 "North Korea: Economic System Built on Forced Labor." Human Rights Watch. http://www.hrw.org/news/2012/06/13/north-korea-economic-system-built-forced-labor (accessed October 13, 2015). 58 Quoted from North Korea Country Study 59 Quoted from Human Rights Watch 60 "North Korea's Economy Struggles." Economy Watch. http://www.economywatch.com/world_economy/north_korea/ (accessed October 13, 2015) 61 "North Korea's National Goals." Defense Intelligence Agency. http://www.fas.org/irp/dia/product/knfms/knfms_chp1.html (accessed October 13, 2015). 62 Ibid.

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remains a top priority for resourcing in the event the country has to defend or launch an offensive 353against the US, South Korea, or an outside threat. 354

On that note, the North Korean Army is trained to protect against socialism and is the 355focal point for implementing national policy.63 At the same time, because of such a high 356emphasis and top priority for its military, North Korea’s citizens chronically suffer due to a 357shortage of supplies and goods that are prioritized and resourced for their military. There is no 358doubt that economically North Korea’s ideology is cancerous, which is self-reliance and 359resourced with no outside influence. Additionally, with little to no outside influence, it affects 360trade, disrupts the quality of life, inferiorities their citizens and contributes to an already crippled 361economy on the verge of a massive futuristic economic crisis. Currently because of these very 362same politics and beliefs, their economy continues to suffer to this day. Unemployment rates in 363the country are skewed and ill-defined because of the government’s strict policy and control over 364its laborious laws and rope around its people. In fact, most of their numbers are fabricated and 365quite often skewed and inflated to deceive the outside world. 366 367d. National Issues. According to RAND, “when examining a state’s capacity to effectively set 368goals, it is more important to focus on whether the cleavages (policies) in question actually 369impede the ability of state managers to make the requisite decisions associated with acquiring or 370increasing national power.”64 North Korea’s outcry for state and national recognition along with 371its policies and decision makers are definitely questionable and will likely continue to impede 372their ability to requisition and increase national power. Thus, the ability to set goals realistically 373is tunneled to the states beliefs and ideology, which is not transparent to the outside world which 374again will detract from requisitioning and increasing national power. 375 376e. Robustness of Governing Institutions. North Korea is very unsupportive of its people and only 377caters to the elite and people of acceptable social classes. By the same token, there is an 378economic divide between the elite and its people whereas the flow of goods is distributed to the 379elite first then what is left are strictly rationed to its people and cities outside the elite Capital of 380Pyongyang.65 North Korea’s strategic intended perception to the rest of the world is that it is a 381self-reliant and collectively free of external influences;66 when it is nothing more than a smoke 382screen for a communist state that oppresses its citizens, leverage and divides power among the 383elite, and in a sense at war with its own people. Societal cohesion for status quo with countries 384such as China, Japan, and even South Korea does exist, but North Korea is at war with its people 385and struggles with the perceived tarnished image of its national and regional identity.67 Sadly, 386military cohesion does exist and remains a top priority for resourcing for fear of an invasion by 387

63 Ibid. 64 RAND measuring National Power, pg. 112 65 Ibid. 66 Juetten, Stephan A., David S. Yost and Edward A. Olsen. "North Korea's Juche Ideology." U.S. Navy Post Graduate School (2008): 2-3. 67 Ibid.

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South Korea and the United States. 68Furthermore; North Korea is also assessed to be one of the 388most militarized countries in the world, which devotes most of its human and economic 389resources to its military and not its citizens.69 However, North Koreans are taught and 390brainwashed at very young ages that it has two distinct enemies of hatred and must be prepared 391to defend against at all times: The Japanese because of its colonization of Korea from 1910 to 3921945, and the United States because of the Korean War.70 393 394Closing remarks: Ironically, after careful analysis and research, it can arguably be concluded that 395North Korea’s enemy is not Japan, the United States and or South Korea; it is their very own ill-396defined ideology and the country’s President backed by selfish politics, tradition, blasphemous 397beliefs, and History with its people at the tip of the spear. Furthermore, there is no real 398opposition within this ailed gray society to assess except for their own government and external 399influences, which are perceived by the elite as cancer, and has detrimental psychological effects 400on its already oppressed citizens, and its national perceived tarnished ideology; The North 401Koreans utilizes its Army to propagate its national policies and social movement. It indoctrinates 402its citizens with coercive state ideology and government illusion programs with complete 403alienation from the rest of the world. Their politics and ideology can be summed up to this 404conclusive statement. Oppress and control its people, leverage and flex power among the elite, 405build a strong military to propagate its policies and defend its nation with no external influences, 406self-resource, and deceive the rest of the world. Unfortunately, without external influences and 407more transparency to its operations, waning support from neighboring countries such as South 408Korea and imposed sanctions by the United States and its allies will potentially elude to 409complete socio-economic failure. 410 411

Bibliography 412

Ashley J. Tellis, Janice Bially, Christopher Layne & Melissa McPherson, Measuring National 413Power in the Post Industrial Age (Santa Monica: RAND, 2000): 110-112 414

"Bureau of East Asian and Pacific Affairs." U.S. Department of State. 415http://www.state.gov/r/pa/ei/bgn/2792.htm (accessed October 09, 2015). 416

"How North Korean Children are taught to Hate." Mail Online News. 417http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2163817/How-North-Korean-children-taught-418hate-American-b----kindergarten.html (accessed October 13, 2015). 419

Juetten, Stephan A., David S. Yost and Edward A. Olsen. "North Korea's Juche Ideology." U.S. 420Navy Post Graduate School (2008): 2-3. 421

68 Ibid. 69Quoted from Defense Intelligence Agency70"How North Korean Children are taught to Hate." Mail Online News. http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2163817/How-North-Korean-children-taught-hate-American-b----kindergarten.html (accessed October 13, 2015).

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"North Korea: Economic System Built on Forced Labor." Human Rights Watch. 422http://www.hrw.org/news/2012/06/13/north-korea-economic-system-built-forced-labor 423(accessed October 13, 2015). 424

"North Korea's Economy Struggles." Economy Watch. 425http://www.economywatch.com/world_economy/north_korea/ (accessed October 13, 4262015) 427

"North Korean Government." Maps of the World. http://www.mapsofworld.com/north-428korea/government/ (accessed October 9, 2015). 429

"North Korea's National Goals." Defense Intelligence Agency. 430http://www.fas.org/irp/dia/product/knfms/knfms_chp1.html (accessed October 13, 2015). 431

Savada, Andrea Matles. North Korea: A Country Study. Washington D.C.: GPO for the library 432of Congress, 1993. http://countrystudies.us/north-korea/ (accessed October 11, 2015). 433

"The World Fact Book." Central Intelligence Agency. 434https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/kn.html (accessed 435October 10, 2015) 436

Societal Assessment 437

Societal Overview. North Korea is a country that struggles with class oppression and privileged 438resources are rationed and strictly controlled amongst the government and the elite. The elite can 439be assessed as living like privileged communist kings of the former Soviet Union with its people 440at its mercy and the oppressed.71 Additionally, North Korea is declared to be armed and a very 441militarized state;72 Ranked 49th in the world with an estimated population size of about 44224,589,122 and about half the size of South Korea (Population size 48,860,500, North Korea’s 443population suffers from hunger, starvation, and malnutrition by its irrational government where 444food is poorly rationed and controlled.73 With an assessed birth rate of 14.51 births per 1,000, a 445death rate of 9.12 per 1,000, and an average life expectancy of about 70- years(total 446population),74 their numbers in comparison have a lower life expectancy than its neighbors in 447South Korean at 79-years of age. 448

71 "North Korean Society." Mongabay Country Studies. http://www.mongabay.com/reference/country_studies/north-korea/SOCIETY.html (accessed October 20, 2015). 72 Jacobs, Andrew. "Countries and territories North Korea." New York Times. http://topics.nytimes.com/top/news/international/countriesandterritories/northkorea/index.html (accessed October 21, 2015). 73 The World Fact Book." Central Intelligence Agency. https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/kn.html (accessed October 19, 2015). 74 Numbers for comparison for North and South Korea of life expectancy were taken based on total population size, accounted for both sexes, and average age of life span in both countries.

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Furthermore, releasable demographics and vital statistics are strictly controlled by the 449government and skewed for deception leading the world to believe they have legitimate figures.75 450Regarding control, the government monitors household size and treats its families like cells or a 451basic unit of society but not as an economic entity.76 For example, working citizens of families 452who participate in cooperative factory or offices can earn work points for the family as a whole 453awarded and rationed by the government. By the same token, unlike its perceived regional threat 454and neighbors in South Korea where elders and fathers are categorized as head of household and 455controls economic way of life, North Korean authorities de-liberate its family households by 456controlling their economic way of life.77 Although North Korea claims to be a socialist society 457where equality should be promised and balanced amongst its people, evidence indicates sure 458signs of social and political inequality in an ailing society whose line of equality is so close yet 459so far away unlike its more privileged and liberated neighbors in South Korea; government 460officials and entrusted authorities are added to be corrupt, which in some cases accept bribes to 461selfishly better personal and their own Family way of life.78 462

Depicted below in Figure-179 is a map to show the very thin line of separation between 463North Korea and South Korea (Seoul) also known as the 38th parallel and Demilitarized Zone; It 464is very sad, but this line separates two homogenous societies meaning predominately Korean, 465one with added liberties, recognized, and more acceptable societal norms and the other with 466deceptive societal norms with complete control and oppression of its people… 467

75 Quoted from Mongaby Country Study 76 Ibid. 77 Ibid. 78 Oh, Kongdan. "Political Classification and Social Structure in North Korea." Brookings.edu

research testimonies. http://www.brookings.edu/research/testimony/2003/06/05northkorea-oh (accessed October 21, 2015).

79 Quoted from Countries and territories North Korea NY Times

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468

a. National Cohesion. Completely isolated under Japanese rule and colonization until 1945, the 469North Korean peninsula is densely one of the most homogenous regions in the world; it is an 470almost total ethnically Korean population with a very small Chinese and Japanese community 471where the dominant language in the North is Chosŏn muntcha and han’gŭl pronounced (Hangul) 472in the South;80 Known practiced religions in North Korea are Buddhist Confucianism, 473Christianity, and syncretic Chondogyo. Unfortunately, autonomous practices with open 474worshipping are almost nonexistent. Moreover, under the fierce rule and communist style of 475dictatorship, religious practices are being replaced with government-sponsored groups and 476programs for the deception of religious freedom.81 Although there is no assessed divide and 477tension amongst ethnicities in the Korean population, there is a clear line of separation between 478the government’s power and control over its people where ethnic cohesion amongst the 479government and its people can be defined as gray.82 480

Furthermore, because North Korea is such a highly concentrated militarized country, 481which it utilizes to boost state and National identity, its people suffer due to devoted prioritized 482resources to their military and defense.83 North Korea’s obsession and devotion to a more 483militarized communist state or ruling can be analyzed and attributed to three things: the fear of 484re-oppression/occupation and war with the Japanese, an invasion or war with South Korea, and 485or the United States... North Korea’s ideology and state beliefs can be assessed and arguably 486very relevant to the RAND studies. Why? According to RAND, as Kugler and Domke have 487argued, “The most capable [states] extract and allocate a larger portion of available resources for 488

80 Quoted from the CIA world Fact book 81 Ibid.82Savada, Andrea Matles. North Korea: A Country Study. Washington D.C.: GPO for the library of Congress, 1993. http://countrystudies.us/north-korea/ (accessed October 18, 2015).83 Ibid.

38th Parallel/DMZ

Figure-1

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war purposes. Accordingly, analyzing the flow of revenues from the societal to the [state] 489resource pool provides an effective measurement of the political component of 490Power . . . [particularly because the evidence suggests that] . . . the [usual] winners of war are 491 those who have the resources and the political capacity to mobilize and maintain a war effort.”84 492 493

As mentioned above, regarding gray defined cohesion between the people and its 494government, during a more recent interview by the New York Times of North Koreans about the 495government and assessed conditions, they simply stated that” their lives have gotten harder and 496no better under the new youthful leader of North Korea. They embarked on the government in 497shame as it watched its more privileged children prance around in its new clothing when they 498(the citizens) are suffering from starvation… Moreover, ranting about the loss of life of less 499fortunate neighbors because of malnutrition and starvation...”85 More interviewees clearly stated 500and realized that the false implications of a more impoverished South Korea are nothing more 501than deception and propaganda for which the government uses to mislead its ailing own 502impoverished people.86The government does this by utilizing its controlled media sources to 503disseminate propaganda, issue products such as DVDs and videos to undermine South Korea as 504being less fortunate and more impoverished. Deception can be assessed as the North Koreans 505government way of controlling its people and eluding the rest of the world with its non-506transparent operations and suffering economy; North Koreas economical pitfalls can be 507attributed to its obsession with military hardware and its costly nuclear weapons program for 508which it neglects its people and prioritizes over its ailing society…87 509

From the RAND studies and a few assessed factors from above, it can be concluded that 510North Korea flexes and measures its political component of power to the National community by 511means of a strong military utilizing societal resources to win and deter war at the expense of its 512people; North Korea also utilizes its military power to build and maintain National cohesion and 513state identity by its well renowned and infamous Nuclear weapons program. Moreover, for 514which it utilizes to taunt and leverage power from the National community.88 Let’s suggest what 515this might mean? Although a self-proclaimed resourced entity with limited external influence, 516there is much-needed cohesion amongst economic and political boosters from countries like the 517

84 Ashley J. Tellis, Janice Bially, Christopher Layne & Melissa McPherson, Measuring National Power in the Post Industrial Age (Santa Monica: RAND, 2000), p1119. 85 Direct Quote from Countries and territories North Korea NY Times 86 Quoted from Countries and territories North Korea NY Times 87 "S. Korea, US, Japan agree to close cooperation on NK nuclear issues." The Korea Times. http://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/news/nation/2012/10/120_122472.html (accessed October 20, 2015). 88 Ibid.

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United States, Japan, South Korea, and China which are all leveraged and in a sense controlled 518by the North Koreans which it uses to flex its power for National cohesion. 519

In Lehman’s term, the North Koreans strategically gets what it wants from the 520International and National community because it is perceived as an imminent world threat 521regarding their very active Nuclear weapons program.89 Will they ever launch a nuclear attack 522causing a major international crisis? Maybe; however, they will probably continue to utilize the 523program as a deterrence for war along with its well-resourced military to leverage state 524recognition, puppeteer, and taunt the international community to influence cohesion and 525cooperation…Sounds like the old communist Stalinist Soviet regime strategic implications and 526look what happened to them…? In essence, North Korea’s nuclear weapons program will likely 527never end, but History has dictated that this type of Regime’s days just might be numbered… 528

b. Enterprise. Like any society, education starts with the youth for continued succession to help 529shape and build that society’s next generation. Children in North Korea spend four years in 530elementary school and six years in secondary or middle school before they have to make a 531decision whether or not they want to pursue a college degree.90 Education in North Korea is free, 532compulsory, and universal for 11 years, from ages four to 15, in state-run schools. The national 533literacy rate for citizens 15 years of age and older is 99 percent.91 Although education in North 534Korea is free, they are ranked at a distant 47th 92 in the world for enrollments; Unfortunately well 535behind its more liberated neighbors of South Korea ranked at Number 8, the U.S. being number 5361 ahead of China at Number 2.93 Graduation from college or Universities is about 10%, and those 537are usually from wealthy or elite families.94Of the reported enrollments and comparison to other 538countries, only about 10% of the students go to college, which is a distant far of about a 70% 539college enrollment rate in the U.S. or more than 80% in South Korea, which has the highest 540college enrollment rate in the world and graduation rate of about 50% or more.95 In comparison 54189 Ibid. 90 "Even in North Korea, getting into college is tough: A glimpse into the country’s higher education." Business and Education. http://businessandeducation.wordpress.com/2011/11/15/even-in-north-korea-getting-into-college-is-tough-a-glimpse-into-the-countrys-higher-education/ (accessed October 21, 2015). 91 "Country Profile: North Korea." Library of Congress-Federal Research Division. lcweb2.loc.gov/frd/cs/profiles/North_Korea.pdf (accessed October 21, 2015), p. 7 92 Korean Education System," Facts about Korea and Korean, 2009, accessed June 24, 2016, http://gokorean.com/Education.html. 93 "Nation Master." Education enrolment by level > Tertiary level (most recent) by country: North Korea. http://www.nationmaster.com/graph/edu_edu_enr_by_lev_ter_lev-education-enrolment-by-level-tertiary (accessed October 21, 2015). 94 Quoted from Business and Education World Press 95 Ibid.

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to its close neighbors in South Korea, the quality of education in North Korea is assessed as 542equivalent for those who are more fortunate and can attend the state-run programs.96 However, 543the low enrollment rates can be attributed to its millions of oppressed citizens, which at the same 544time lack education because of the countries highly proliferated social, but separate 545equalities.97As for the elite and more fortunate, North Korea has very competitive Science and 546Math programs, which students have to compete for regarding acceptance. Through rigorous 547selection to include challenging curriculums, exams, and even scouting by Colleges and 548Universities in distinct regions, North Korea’s Science and Math programs are just as 549competitive and equivalent to renowned world Science and Math leaders Japan and South 550Korea.98 551

Infamously, North Korea is ranked as the lowest country in the world regarding media 552freedom.99 In fact, according to a more recent Huffington post report; there is no public internet 553access anywhere to be found in the country.100 However, this doesn’t mean that there is no access 554but all media Domestic and international is monitored via the Agitations and Propaganda 555Department in the Koreans Worker Party (Elite). Most national broadcasting is via the Korean 556Central Broadcasting Station in Pyongyang. Radio service was provided by approximately 17 557AM, 14 FM, and 14 shortwave government-controlled stations in 2014.101 Nearly all households 558have access to broadcasts from radios or public loudspeakers and its assessed that there is about 55955 television sets per 1,000, or about 22% of the total population has television access. Nearly all 560households have access to broadcasts from radios or public loudspeakers. With that, Domestic 561media censorship is strictly enforced, and there is no external media or broadcast allowed; 562however, elite and more privileged party members have good access to external media, which 563they are able to censor and control.102 Newspapers, radio, and mass media are major vehicles for 564information dissemination and political propaganda in the country.103 However, with the control, 565

96 Quoted from Library of Congress-Federal Research Division. p. 7 97 Quoted from Mongaby Country Study 98 "National Academy of Science." North Korea Economy Watch. http://www.nkeconwatch.com/category/dprk-organizations/state-offices/national-academy-of-science/ (accessed October 21, 2015). 99 "North Korea's Access to Media." BBC News Asia. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-18030692 (accessed October 20, 2015). 100 Bangs, Richard. "Visiting North Korea, The Hermit Kingdom." Huffington Post. http://www.huffingtonpost.com/richard-bangs/north-korea-and-the-hassl_b_1948471.html (accessed October 21, 2015). 101 Quoted from Library of Congress-Federal Research Division. p. 13 102 Ibid. 103 Ibid.

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neither televisions nor radios can be utilized or tuned to anything accept for approved 566programming by the government.104 Additionally, external devices such as DVDs, USBs, hard-567drives etc.…all have to be prior approved for use by the government with imposed punishment 568for non-compliance.105 569

Moreover, with an estimated population size over 24-million people, about 10% have 570radios, 22% have television access but mostly in private and suburban areas, all have newspaper 571access, and only 20% of the country’s population have access to the internet in mostly private 572homes and the suburbs for the more privileged.106 One thing that’s become apparent, is that 573North Korean is a very secretive society, so most of the figures are in some cases are dated, or 574even skewed for deceptive means; It is also apparent that North Korea will continue to censor 575and control media and communications maintaining social control in an already alienated 576society. 577

However, North Korea will continue to deceive the world with aspirations of becoming a 578more developed nation trying to expand its means technologically. In fact, according to RAND, 579to leverage and measure the extent of which a country is technologically capable but not limited 580to, a few things must be understood and weighed. That is “the capacity to invent, innovate, and 581diffuse innovations, thus remains the motor of technological changes...”107Technological 582innovations can be assessed based on a countries devotion and expenditures regarding research 583and development.108 Being a deceptive, self-proclaimed resourced labeled secretive society, 584North Korea ironically depends on the U.S. and other foreign countries for food aid (Leveraged 585sanctions by U.S.), China, Japan, and even South Korea which represents about 90% of the 586countries imports.109 With an estimated Gross Domestic product reported in 2013 to be 22.26 587billion, of that 31.3 percent is devoted to military expenditures, weapons research programs, and 588nuclear science, which dollar for dollar is reported to be the most militaristic state in the world110 589Unfortunately, innovation and technology is not North Korea’s forte; however, a report released 590

104 Ibid. 105 Ibid. 106 Ibid. 107 Direct Quote from RAND p 73. 108 Quoted from RAND p 79. 109 Quoted from CIA World Fact book 110 "Facts on North Korea." CNN World. http://articles.cnn.com/2004-04-22/world/nkorea.facts_1_weapons-program-north-korea-chemical-stockpiles?_s=PM:WORLD (accessed October 21, 2015).

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in 2006, stated that the North has been focusing on technological development as a means of 591spurring its ailing economy.111 592

North Korea, a much-undisclosed society has only reported a few documented patents to 593the World Intellectual Property Organization (WIPO).112 On that note, North Korea has filed two 594cases of international patents through the WIPO. WIPO has confirmed that one of the patents 595filed was a cast iron welding rod structure used for industrial material while the other patent was 596still in the filing process and thus could not be disclosed to the public. In the past five years, 597North Korea submitted three patent filings in 2007, seven in 2008, and four in 2011; however, 598types were not disclosed.113 Ironically, in 2008 it was reported that North Korean Scientist had 599created a high super calorie noodle, which is supposed to have five times more protein and twice 600as much fat as an ordinary Ramen.114 Not much along the lines of technology and innovation; 601however, quite evident that the state is looking for desperate means economically to perhaps 602mitigate hunger and starvation. Ironically, the fail state does not produce enough food to feed 603their own people, who are heavily reliant on foreign food programs where the invention(s) are 604nothing to celebrate. Lastly, by no means does the lack of reported information regarding North 605Koreas technological advances are to undermine their abilities. However, this is in fact due to the 606country’s ideology to remain secretive and questionably “self-reliant,” which is nothing more 607than deception to the rest of the world for what’s really happening underneath the hood and 608behind the scenes. 609

610

Bibliography 611

Ashley J. Tellis, Janice Bially, Christopher Layne & Melissa McPherson, Measuring National 612Power in the Post Industrial Age (Santa Monica: RAND, 2000), p. 73,79,1119. 613

Bangs, Richard. "Visiting North Korea, The Hermit Kingdom." Huffington Post. 614http://www.huffingtonpost.com/richard-bangs/north-korea-and-the-615hassl_b_1948471.html (accessed October 21, 2015). 616

"Country Profile: North Korea." Library of Congress-Federal Research Division. 617lcweb2.loc.gov/frd/cs/profiles/North_Korea.pdf (accessed October 21, 2015), p. 7, 13 618

111 "Policy Forum 06-61A: North Korea Focusing On Technological Development to Revive Economy." Nautilus Institute for Security and Sustainability (accessed on October 18, 2015). 112 "Promoting New Technologies and Inventions at the National Exhibition." North Korea Economy Watch. http://www.nkeconwatch.com/2012/09/27/promoting-new-technologies-and-inventions-at-the-national-exhibition/ (accessed October 21, 2015). 113 Ibid. 114 Ibid.

24

"Even in North Korea, getting into college is tough: A glimpse into the country’s higher 619education." Business and Education. 620http://businessandeducation.wordpress.com/2011/11/15/even-in-north-korea-getting-621into-college-is-tough-a-glimpse-into-the-countrys-higher-education/ (accessed October 62221, 2015). 623

"Facts on North Korea." CNN World. http://articles.cnn.com/2004-04-62422/world/nkorea.facts_1_weapons-program-north-korea-chemical-625stockpiles?_s=PM:WORLD (accessed October 21, 2015). 626

Jacobs, Andrew. "Countries and territories North Korea." New York Times. 627http://topics.nytimes.com/top/news/international/countriesandterritories/northkorea/inde628x.html (accessed October 21, 2012). 629

"Korean Education System." Facts about Korea and Korean. 2009. Accessed June 24, 2016. 630http://gokorean.com/Education.html. 631

Oh, Kongdan. "Political Classification and Social Structure in North Korea." Brookings.edu 632research testimonies. 633http://www.brookings.edu/research/testimony/2003/06/05northkorea-oh (accessed 634October 21, 2015). 635

""Nation Master." Education enrolment by level > Tertiary level (most recent) by country: North 636Korea. http://www.nationmaster.com/graph/edu_edu_enr_by_lev_ter_lev-education-637enrolment-by-level-tertiary (accessed October 21, 2015). 638

"National Academy of Science." North Korea Economy Watch. 639http://www.nkeconwatch.com/category/dprk-organizations/state-offices/national-640academy-of-science/ (accessed October 21, 2015). 641

"North Korea's Access to Media." BBC News Asia. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-64218030692 (accessed October 20, 2015) 643

"North Korean Society." Mongabay Country Studies. 644http://www.mongabay.com/reference/country_studies/north-korea/SOCIETY.html (accessed 645October 20, 2015). 646

"Policy Forum 06-61A: North Korea Focusing On Technological Development to Revive 647Economy." Nautilus Institute for Security and Sustainability (accessed on October 18, 2015). 648

"Promoting New Technologies and Inventions at the National Exhibition." North Korea 649Economy Watch. http://www.nkeconwatch.com/2012/09/27/promoting-new-650technologies-and-inventions-at-the-national-exhibition/ (accessed October 21, 2015). 651

Savada, Andrea Matles. North Korea: A Country Study. Washington D.C.: GPO for the library 652of Congress, 1993. http://countrystudies.us/north-korea/ (accessed October 18, 2015). 653

"S. Korea, US, Japan agree to close cooperation on NK nuclear issues." The Korea Times. 654http://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/news/nation/2012/10/120_122472.html (accessed 655October 20, 2015). 656

The World Fact Book." Central Intelligence Agency. 657https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/kn.html (accessed October 19, 6582015) 659

660

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Economic Assessment 661

Economic Overview. Money regarding a country’s national power can be measured by its Gross 662National Product (GNP) and Gross Domestic Product (GDP)115* and how it stacks up against its 663competitors.116 In comparison to the international community, North Korea ranks at a distant low 66499th with a “GDP” estimated at $40-billion in 2014 with a GDP growth potential of 4% ranked 665at a low 96 to the rest of the world.117 Nothing to brag about but up from 2007 with GDP 666potential of -0.4% ranked then at 56 to the rest of the world. Unfortunately, well behind in 667comparison to its regional neighbor of South Korea ranked at 13th in the international 668community with a GDP of $1.5-trillion.118 Regarding the measuring of power, for a general idea 669of North Korea’s “GNP, we will utilize some releasable data in comparison from North Korea, 670which was provided in 1991.119 North Korea’s GNP in 1991 was estimated at 22.9 billion or 6711,038/capita well short and behind its regional neighbor of South Korea estimated at $237.9-672billion or 5,569/capita or a GNP difference of (+$215-billion ahead of its neighbor).120* 673Interestingly, from 1989-91 North Korea’s economic factors showed a 5 %(-$1.2billion) decline 674with preliminary indicators that the trend would continue in the future. To prove that point, the 675reported GNP per capita of North Korea was $920 in 1996 a $118 decline from 1991. And with 676the country’s unimpressive GNP comes an external debt that sums up to $12.5 billion owing 677countries like China, Japan, and even the United States.121 On the contrary, South Korea hasn’t 678always been a global and economic front-runner with a previous 60’s era gross domestic product 679equivalent to poorer nations like Africa at ($7.3-billion)122 and over the past four-decades has 680demonstrated incredible growth and global integration with a stunning 66% or an estimated 681$992-billion in growth rate.123 682

115* Note: Gross National Product is the market value of all products and services produced in one year by labor and property supplied by the residents of a country. Unlike Gross Domestic Product, which defines production based on the geographical location of production, GNP allocates production based on ownership. 116Ashley J. Tellis, Janice Bially, Christopher Layne & Melissa McPherson, Measuring National Power in the Post Industrial Age (Santa Monica: RAND, 2000), p 84. 117 Rankings." Countries of the World: Purchasing Power Parity” http://www.photius.com/rankings/economy/gdp_purchasing_power_parity_2012_0.html (accessed November 5, 2015). 118 "North Korea Economy 2011." Countries of the World. http://www.theodora.com/wfbcurrent/korea_north/korea_north_economy.html (accessed November 5, 2015).119 The World Fact Book." Central Intelligence Agency. https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/kn.html (accessed November 1, 2015). 120 *"Note: According to the CIA World fact book, North Korea does not publish reliable National Income Accounts data. 121 The World Fact Book." Central Intelligence Agency. https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/kn.html (accessed November 1, 2015) 122 South Africa's GDP." Trading Economics: South Africa http://www.tradingeconomics.com/south-africa/gdp (accessed November 02, 2015) 123 The World Fact Book." Central Intelligence Agency. https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/kn.html (accessed November 1, 2015)

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South Korea has become a global front-runner joining the trillion dollar club ranking in 683the top 20 world largest economies with contributors of success being its high tech industrialized 684economy, close government, and business affiliations, and it is direct and import restrictions.124 685The distant figures separating a lagging regional North Korean economy can be attributed to the 686following economic pitfalls. First, North Korea has one of the least open economies in the world, 687which detracts from foreign investments. Second, its industrial “capital stock” is in a state of 688disarray with poor maintenance, shortfalls in spare parts, and years of underinvestment’s 689domestic and foreign. Third, prioritized large scale spending for military resources detracts from 690resources needed for investment and civilian consumption.125 Additional contributing factors 691regarding the country’s economic stalemates can be attributed to agricultural set-backs, which 692the country lacks support and often neglect by its government. Such set-backs include the 693country’s struggle to grow food with aggregated crop related failures and insufficient 694fertilization, which produces poor soil quality. 695

Unfortunately, the overarching results of chronic food shortages are stalemates to boost 696the country’s economy and feed its people.126 Other paling North Korean economic shortfalls can 697be attributed and assessed to the following regional and foreign aid factors: On the first hand, 698South Korea in response to the North Korean’s sinking of the South Korean destroyer Cheonan 699and the shelling of Yeonpyeong Island has stifled economic support and initiatives; it is regional 700neighbor of South Korea's has cut off most aid, trade, and bilateral cooperation activities with 701limited industrial interaction.127 On the other hand, according to a congressional review and 702report released in 2008, “Between 1995 and 2008, the United States provided North Korea with 703over $1.3 billion in assistance: just over 50% for food aid and about 40% for energy assistance. 704Since early 2009, the United States has provided virtually no aid to North Korea because of 705initiated sanctions in response to North Korea’s nuclear test launches and highly active nuclear 706weapons program.”128 The point from the above statistics is to show that the United Stated at one 707point was the country’s biggest foreign aid food and energy contributor after the collapse of the 708Soviet Union. However, a more “cautious but optimistic United States” knows from experience 709even after unsuccessful bilateral talks to suspend nuclear-related activities, that broken deals still 710plagues North Korea, which has halted food aid and energy contribution initiatives with the 711country from external supporters.”129 North Korea at one time in 2012 had agreed to stop 712nuclear activity at its main facility in Yongbyon and nuclear tests and long-range missile 713launches, which ironically had agreed to stop in exchange for 240,000 tons of food from the 714United States.130 715

Keep in mind that North Korea has been a deal breaker for years for non-compliance of 716its nuclear program and the lack of transparency of its operations to the international community. 717124 Ibid. 125 Ibid. 126 Ibid. 127 Ibid. 128 Manyin, Mark E., & Nikitin, Mary Beth. "Foreign Assistance to North Korea." Congressional Research Service: Specialist in Asian Affairs. www.crs.gov(accessed November 4, 2015) 129 Elise, Labott. "U.S. cautiously optimistic after food aid deal with North Korea." By Elise Labott, CNN. (http://www.cnn.com/2012/03/01/opinion/analysis-north-korea-promise/index.html (accessed November 4, 2015) 130 Ibid

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The same non-compliances have plagued the North Korean economy with imposed sanctions. At 718the same time, these sanctions have also stifled initiatives from the international community in 719terms of support and aid, which the country so desperately needs. On the contrary, in spite of 720imposed sanctions on North Korea, the international community still has answered with good 721deeds and there have been reported huge initiatives in the past for support. Reports indicated its 722regional neighbor of South Korea and economic giants such as Japan, China, and the United 723States collaboratively served as the country’s biggest life line and in most cases their means of 724survival. 725

In fact, according to the International Food Aid Information System (INTERFAIS), the 726aid combined accounted for 80% of the 8.34 million Metric Tons of food aid the World Food 727Program (WFP) stated North Korea received between 1996 and 2004 from the four economic 728giants.131 Stunning support and enough food to feed an entire population and wanted to 729“highlight” and show those statistics to prove a point. It is evident that North Korea cannot 730afford to feed its people with its own money and probably could not survive without aid from the 731international community. So lets’ look at some more underlying contributing factors that are 732exposing the facts of an ailing and dependent economy debunking the smoke screen of self-733reliance; In 2011, the regional labor force of South Korea reported at 25.1 million, which 734accounts for close to half of the country’s population at over 48-million people.132 735

On the contrary, North Korea’s labor force is reported at 12.2 million about half the size 736of its reported population at over 24.5 million.133 In essence, South Korea employs about 25.1 737million people just about the total population size in North Korea with almost double the people. 738In essence, labor-force comparisons between North and South Korea are at a ratio of 1:1 or one 739in the same each employing about half its population sizes. Moreover, why so very distant 740regarding economy conditions and growth? Sounds all negative so far but North Korea does have 741productivity in its work force. In fact, the industrial sector in the country was most productive at 74243.4% in the year 2011. The other sectors that were equally productive were the service (33.6%) 743and the agricultural (23%) sectors. This is from a workforce of 12.2 million people form the total 74424.5 million in the country.134 However, just not enough to boost the country’s very poor GNP 745and compete with its regional neighbor of South Korea and the international community. 746

Unfortunately, the shortfalls and trendy road blocks in the North Korean economy dates 747back to their heavy reliance and emulated economy of the former Soviet Union. With the same 748self-reliance ideology and heavy emphasis on defense spending, it crumbled the Soviet Union 749and their economy. In fact, after the collapse of the Soviet Union, food deficit and the 750withdrawal of food aid in the 1990s forced the country to ask for aid from the United Nations 751

131 Manyin, Mark E. "Foreign Assistance to North Korea: Foreign Affairs, Defense, and Trade Division." Congressional Research Service: Specialist in Asian Affairs. www.au.af.mil/au/awc/awcgate/crs/rl31785.pdf (accessed November 3, 2015) 132 The World Fact Book." Central Intelligence Agency. https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/kn.html (accessed November 1, 2015) 133 Ibid 134The World Fact Book." Central Intelligence Agency. https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/kn.html (accessed November 1, 2015)

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causing an economic crisis and desperate need for food.135 The aid the country received went 752well into the next decade with the country in the year 2005 announcing that in the following 753year, they would not receive any aid from the (UN) United Nations. The country was facing 754major economic challenges and as such in the year 2010, the Democratic People’s Republic of 755Korea ( DPRK) resumed to receiving food aid from the Unite Nations Development Program 756(UNDP)136, however, still in need of foreign aid and help to this day. 757

Comparatively, the big lag and gap of economic growth between North Korea and South 758Korea to include the rest of the world is the distinct economic structures. North Korea being 759completely closed centrally planned and claims self-reliance. South Korea and growth countries 760in the international community have a more open economic system, which allows foreign 761investment and welcomes external influences for growth and gains. Arguably, there are three 762things to take away from the information provided thus far in this assessment. One, North Korea 763has very poor “economic and national power”; Two, it cannot afford to feed its people and 764without foreign aid will likely collapse as a nation; Three it leverages cohesion and mitigates 765cooperation from its region and the international community for foreign aid by utilizing its 766perceived “world threat” nuclear weapons program. We can conclude from the data and 767information above that the North Korea’s professed “self-reliance, self-resourced ideology to 768include no external influence is cancerous. Inevitably, it is nothing but a smoke-screen for 769deception. Unfortunately, North Korea will continue to neglect its people at the expense to 770defend its nation utilizing its highly proliferated nuclear weapons program to leverage cohesion 771from the international community and to deceive the world. North Korea’s economic trends are 772putting the country on track for failure just like its former militarized idol of the former Soviet 773Union. 774

775

Critical Technologies. According to RAND, technology is defined as the ability of the country to 776create innovative and the most sophisticated new technology as identified in the world today.137 777Unfortunately, North Korea lags at the ability to create and be innovative when it comes to 778sophisticated technology and remain behind the rest of the world. Moreover, the country 779continues to proliferate to the rest of the world on its abilities to become a more developed nation 780trying to expand its means of technology, however, has yet to measure up. In fact, according to 781RAND, the capacity to invent, innovate, and diffuse innovations is the motor of technological 782change.138 On that note, not sure if North Korea quite measures up when in fact most of the 783innovation and invention of critical technology is currently in the hands of the Iran government 784and Countries like China; Iran along with China augments North Korea’s ballistic missile and 785nuclear weapon’s program and both are perceived as rogue states (North Korea, Iran)139* and 786

135 Library of Congress. ‘Country Profile: North Korea’ Icweb2.loc.gov/frd/cs/profiles/North_Korea.pdf, (accessed November 1, 2015). pg. 7 136 Foreign & Commonwealth Office. ‘Korea, DPR (North Korea) www.fco.gov.uk, 2011 (accessed November 1, 2015) 137 Ashley J. Tellis, Janice Bially, Christopher Layne & Melissa McPherson, Measuring National Power in the Post Industrial Age (Santa Monica: RAND, 2000), pg. 53 138 RAND, pg. 73 139*Rogue states are defined as states that conduct its policy in a dangerously unpredictable way disregarding international law or diplomacy; also referred to by some international theorist as disruptors of world peace.

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imminent world threats. In fact, the United Nations has named both countries as violators of the 787UN sanctions deal in regard to their highly proliferated nuclear weapons program. However, 788unlike Iran, North Korea has been under talks in the past to denuclearize and tame their nuclear 789weapons program for cooperation and to leverage sanctions imposed by the international 790community; future production with partnered Iran and China at this time remains questionable 791yet treacherous because of North Korea’s infamous broken promises with the world and 792international community.140 In essence, North Korea has infamous history of not following 793through on their promises to succumb to Nuclear weapons inspections and adhering to 794international laws concerning their Nuclear weapons program. 795

On the contrary, collaboratively, China, North Korea, Iran, and Russia work hand in hand 796exchanging critical technologies to boost their weapons programs. This is nothing new; notably, 797in the past North Korea once relied on the former Soviet Union to provide critical technology of 798weapons, which then it would reverse engineer and claim as their own.141 In exchange, it was 799reported from1948-1984 that Beijing had contributed 900-milion in subsidized food and energy 800and Moscow 2.2-billion to the North Koreans for their perceived brilliancy for critical 801technologies. Moreover, when in fact the North Korean’s where deceptively using the former 802Soviet Union’s technology experimenting with it and recreating North Korean prototypes and 803selling it back to the Chinese and former Soviet union for subsidies.142 Sounds like deception, 804and the lagging of critical technologies have become quite evident as the fidelity of “self-reliant” 805remains questionable. Furthermore, as the country continues to share and exchange information 806with countries like Iran, Russia, and China their past has caught up with them as the gateway and 807benefits of the former Soviet Union is no longer present. No wonder North Korea cannot 808successfully launch a missile into the atmosphere without complete failure; It is only because the 809once militarized and highly powerful Soviet Union is no longer around to help facilitate the 810critical technology needed that North Korean once utilized, reverse engineered, and claimed as 811their own. The country is desperately looking for ways not only to boost its technological 812advances, but in exchange with Countries like Iran, China, and Russia to help facilitate its 813questionable nuclear weapons program. 814

Physical Resources. The GDP composition in the agricultural sector is currently at 23% 815with the common types of crops grown being rice, corn, soybeans, potatoes and pulses. They 816keep animals such as pigs for pork, cattle for milk and meat and chicken for eggs and meat. The 817commodities they export are minerals, textiles as well as agricultural and fishery products to 818their partners such as China 46.5%, South Korea 40.8% and Bangladesh 1.4%. Apart from 819exporting, they also import goods such as petroleum, coal for cooking, textiles, grains and 820machinery and equipment from China 64.5%, South Korea 24.6% and Russia 2.4%. The 821country’s industries produce minerals such as coal, iron ore, limestone, magnetite, graphite, 822copper, zinc, and lead among other precious metals (gold)143. 823

140 Harvey McDaniel ‘North Korean Ballistic Missile technology in Iran’s hands?’ (The examiner, May 21st 2016) 141 Feffer, John. North Korea, South Korea: U.S. Policy at a Time of Crisis. New York: Seven Stories, 2003. pg. 40 142 Ibid 143North Korean Ballistic Missile technology, The Examiner

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As of 2013, North Korea produced as much as 20.45 billion kWh in electricity, with their 824consumption being 17.12 billion, exporting none and importing none in that year. Fossil fuel 825make up for 47.4% of the installed electricity in the country while fuel from 52.6% is from the 826hydroelectric plants in the country. The country does not produce any crude oil and thus does not 827export the same, other than import it. As of 2013, the import in crude oil was 8432 bbl/day. From 828these figures, the country produces 9133bbl/day refined petroleum products, consuming 15070 829bbl/day and importing 7967 bbl/day petroleum products. From all this consumption of energy 830from the petroleum products, the amount of carbon dioxide emitted into the atmosphere is 63.69 831million Mt144. Sounds like a lot of emissions to include productivity and exchange with the 832international community. Unfortunately, with a poor GNP and GDP, these figures amount to 833nothing but just figures and don’t” measure up” because their economy is failing by the numbers 834and cannot afford to feed its people without the help of foreign aid and the international 835community. 836

837 838

839

Bibliography 840

Ashley J. Tellis, Janice Bially, Christopher Layne & Melissa McPherson, Measuring National 841Power in the Post Industrial Age (Santa Monica: RAND, 2000), p. 53,73,84 842

Elise, Labott. "U.S. cautiously optimistic after food aid deal with North Korea." By Elise Labott, 843CNN. (http://www.cnn.com/2012/03/01/opinion/analysis-north-korea-promise/index.html 844(accessed November 4, 2015). 845

Feffer, John. North Korea, South Korea: U.S. Policy at a Time of Crisis. New York: Seven 846Stories, 2003. pg. 40 847

Foreign & Commonwealth Office. ‘Korea, DPR (North Korea) www.fco.gov.uk, 2011 (accessed 848November 1, 2015). 849

Harvey McDaniel ‘North Korean Ballistic Missile technology in Iran’s hands?’ (The examiner, 850May 21, 2016) 851

Manyin, Mark E., & Nikitin, Mary Beth. "Foreign Assistance to North Korea." Congressional 852Research Service: Specialist in Asian Affairs. www.crs.gov (accessed November 4, 8532015). 854

North Korea Economy 2011." Countries of the World. 855http://www.theodora.com/wfbcurrent/korea_north/korea_north_economy.html (accessed 856November 5, 2015). 857

Library of Congress. ‘Country Profile: North Korea’ 858Icweb2.loc.gov/frd/cs/profiles/North_Korea.pdf, (accessed November 1, 2015). pg. 7 859

144 Ibid.

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Rankings." Countries of the World: Purchasing Power Parity” 860http://www.photius.com/rankings/economy/gdp_purchasing_power_parity_2012_0.html 861(accessed November 5, 2015). 862

South Africa's GDP." Trading Economics: South Africa. 863http://www.tradingeconomics.com/south-africa/gdp (accessed November 02, 2015). 864

“The World Fact Book." Central Intelligence Agency. 865https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/kn.html (accessed 866November 1, 2015). 867

Vulnerabilities Assessment 868

Outlook. North Korea also known as The Democratic People's Republic of Korea 869(DPRK) is an isolated case in the annals of modern economic growth, and not a pleasant one: 870today, North Korea has the unpleasant distinction from the rest of the world with a literacy rate 871of 99% for their population and the only urbanized society in history to suffer from hunger 872during armistice. North Korea has a powerless Gross Domestic Product (GDP) estimated at $40-873billion in 2011 with a GDP growth potential of 4% ranked in comparison at 96 to the rest of the 874world.145 These ailing economic and hunger problems continues to plague the state to this day. 875Pyongyang has continued to rely upon "emergency" international humanitarian aid for over a 876decade and a half.146 The DPRK continue to lodge desperate and urgent appeals to the United 877Nations (UN) World Food Program (WFP) for food aid to feed their people.147 The suffering 878North Korean economy remains in desperate need of help from the international community 879debunking the countries declared self-reliance. Moreover, long term suffering of its economy can 880also be attributed to its own government policies and practices which the purported “self-881reliance, self-resourced principles to include no external influence has proven to be ineffective. 882Inevitably, this is a fact because North Korea is the first and only industrialized economy to lose 883their ability to feed themselves. 148 However, plagued with more debilitated issues internally and 884externally further contributing to the countries problems. 885

886

887

888

889

145 Rankings." Countries of the World: Purchasing Power Parity” http://www.photius.com/rankings/economy/gdp_purchasing_power_parity_2012_0.html (accessed November 18, 2015). 146 Eberstadt, Nicholas. "American Enterprise Institute." What Is Wrong with the North Korean Economy. July 01, 2011. http://www.aei.org/article/foreign-and-defense-policy/regional/asia/what-is-wrong-with-the-north-korean-economy/(accessed November 18, 2015) 147 Ibid 148 Ibid

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Internal Constraints. North Korea’s citizens struggle internally with oppression amongst 890a society of in-equalities. For example, the North Korean government divides its people into 891three distinct social orders based on loyalty to the authorities and their former dear leader Kim 892Jong-Il.149 First, are the core (adamant) believers of the regime where most of the wealthy is 893more fortunate and resourced; second, is the wavering social class which are categorized as(go-894with-the flow) weak followers of the regime. However, still discriminated against because of 895doubtful loyalty; third is the worst being hostile of the three social classes who are adamantly 896opposed to the regime, their former dear leader, and their communist type system of 897government.150 By the same token, hostile and wavering social classes can be categorized as all 898members of minority faiths and descendants of perceived enemies of the state (non-believers). 899Consequently, hostile and wavering castes are discriminated against and denied employment, 900subject to starvation, and in some cases imprisoned, and even beaten.151 Regarding internal 901constraints, I think this is a critical area of concern of coerced social stratification and class 902oppression where the government imposes their radical beliefs by discriminating against their 903own citizens based on social status. In fact, in the 1990’s over 3.5-million died of starvation 904because North Korea would intentionally block international food donations to punish its 905wavering and hostile classes. Unfortunately, with primary resourcing dedicated to its military 906and the elite; malnutrition to this date is widespread in the state except for the ruling class and 907the countries elite, where in comparison the average North Korean 7-year old girl is 7-inches 908shorter than the average South Korean girl.152 909

North Korea has an estimated population size of about 24,589,122 and about half the 910size of South Korea (Population size 48,860,500); North Korea’s population still continue to 911suffer from hunger, starvation, and malnutrition where food is strictly rationed and controlled. 912Furthermore, with an assessed birth rate of 14.51 births per 1,000, a death rate of 9.12 per 1,000, 913and average life expectancy of about 70- years (total population), their numbers in comparison 914have a lower life expectancy than its neighbors in South Korean at 79-years of age.153 The state 915remains the sole allocator of resource. Economically and overall compared to their regional 916neighbors of South Korea and the international community, North Korea’s GDP is limited with 917inadequate national power154 and Purchasing Parity Power (PPP)155 weighing in at 40-billion in 9182011 compared to its neighbors in the South at 1.5-trillion during the same year.156 The North 919Korean economy just does not measure up at a distant 96th compared to their regional neighbors 920

149 Head, Tom. "Human Rights in North Korea." About.com Civil Liberties. http://civilliberty.about.com/od/internationalhumanrights/p/northkorea101.htm (accessed November 19,2015) 150 "Human Rights in North Korea." About.com Civil Liberties 151 Ibid 152 Ibid 153 The World Fact Book." Central Intelligence Agency. https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/kn.html (accessed November 19, 2015) 154 Ashley J. Tellis, Janice Bially, Christopher Layne & Melissa McPherson, Measuring National Power in the Post Industrial Age (Santa Monica: RAND, 2000), p 84 Rankings." Countries of the World: Purchasing Power Parity” 155 Ibid 156 "North Korea Economy 2011." Countries of the World http://www.theodora.com/wfbcurrent/korea_north/korea_north_economy.html (accessed November 18, 2015)

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in South Korea and the international community. In terms of national power and PPP, their 921standings are extremely poor. To summarize the above, North Korea has always had a socialized, 922centrally planned, and a generally industrialized economy alienated and distant from the 923world.157 The means of productivity in the state is almost non-existent but owned and operated 924by state-run enterprises. Prices, wages, trade, budget, and banking are all under strict government 925control.158 Historically, North Korea meager native economic performance was offset with 926infusions of Soviet aid.159 Unfortunately, in 1991 after the collapse of the former Soviet Union, 927the aid to the country was ceased and the160 North Korean economy has been adversely effected 928ever since. The situation got worst with further complications of severe food shortages from 9291995–96 continuing through 2007. After North Korea’s desperate cry for help to the UN and 930WFP, substantial international food aid has enabled North Korea to avoid mass starvation since 931the mid-1990s until this day. However, their citizens remain the victims of continued 932malnutrition and deteriorating living conditions; this situation surfaced as a result of shortage 933arable land, collective farming, weather-related issues, and enduring shortages of fertilizer and 934fuel.161 To pile on the rubble, North Korea’s priority first military expenditures take away from 935resources needed for civilian consumption; Thus, budgeting for military resources first with no 936added surplus for their people. In some cases, at the convenience of the government, withholding 937goods and taking away resources from their citizens to outfit and resource their military. 938

The North Korean’s military spending is about a quarter of their GDP or on average 1.5-939billion to defense and military expenditures.162 At the same time, with steadily reported increases 940in the mid 2000’s to 2009 averaging about 523-million USD. Additionally, because North Korea 941is such a deceptive society and quantifiable figures remain uncertain, there is suspicion of 942reported figures. In fact, according to Korea Institute of Defense Analyses (KIDA), North 943Korea’s actual expenditures are at least three times as reported up to 5-billion in military 944expenditures or about 25% of its GDP of 20-billion in 2012.163 In essence, North Korea’s 945defense first expenditures have no boundaries. As a result, their people suffer, and the constraints 946of the economy are due to their own beliefs of self-resourced with no external influences, which 947has proven to be cancerous; North Koreas’ energy in 2003 were predominant domestic sources 948of commercial energy with coal and hydroelectric power; about 82 percent of North Korea’s 949primary energy consumption was coal. In that same year, North Korea produced an estimated 95032.3 million tons (in oil alike) of hard coal, lignite, and peat; and in 2001 hydroelectric power 951plants generated about 69 percent of North Korea’s electricity, and coal-fired thermal plants 952produced about 31 percent of the country’s energy.164 Shortage of thermal resources does not 953

157 Library of Congress. ‘Country Profile: North Korea’ Icweb2.loc.gov/frd/cs/profiles/North_Korea.pdf, (accessed November 16, 2015) pg. 8 158 North Korea: ECONOMY-Environmental news and information .., http://www.mongabay.com/reference/new_profiles/277nk.html (accessed November 22, 2015) 159 Ibid 160 Ibid 161 Ibid 162 "The Conventional Military Balance on the Korean Peninsula." International Institute for Strategic Studies. http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-dossiers/north-korean-dossier/north-koreas-weapons-programmes-a-net-asses/the-conventional-military-balance-on-the-kore/(accessed November 18, 2015) 163 Ibid 164 Library of Congress, pg. 10

34

allow the use of generator capacity. Electricity consumption in 2003 on average had an estimated 954usage of 17.4 billion kilowatt-hours, accounting for 55 percent of the previous year’s total.165 955

However, compared to 2009, North Korea’s energy consumption now mainly consists of 956fossil fuel, which makes up for 47.4% of the installed electricity in the country while fuel from 95752.6% is from the hydroelectric plants in the country.166 The country does not produce any crude 958oil and therefore does not export the same, other than import it. All energy and electric in North 959Korea is currently being resourced and produced internally. 960

Politically, the elite are the center of gravity where elite power is unicameral with the 961Koreans Workers Party (KWP) as the center of gravity with strict government control.167 In 962essence, it is implied that the state’s capacity for self-control is inevitably a function of the 963coherence demonstrated by its political elite.168 In fact, according to RAND, political elite is “an 964entity that can be defined as those individuals or groups who possess varying degrees of either 965high traditional status, economic influence, administrative power, or coercive capacity.”169 The 966consensus of power lies within North Korean elite parties with little to no opposition where 967autonomous practice of religion by the population is almost non-existent. In fact, the government 968sponsors state controlled religious programs to deceive the world of its people non-benign 969freedom of religion. Consequently, those who seek to challenge the elite which are almost 970nonexistent is jailed, tortured, forced in hard labor detention camps, often exiled and isolated 971from society in concentrated areas and some cases even killed. All of the above factors can be 972summarized as the following: From social discrimination, to military first expenditures, a weak 973GDP, denial of religious freedom, to include a unicameral communist system of governing, and 974the first industrialized economy who cannot afford to feed their people is a sure sign of a state in 975need of help. Unfortunately, the North Korean economy and their people suffer because of their 976own selfish cancerous politics, and by means of deception via their highly proliferated nuclear 977weapons program, consequently they suffer by sanctions imposed by the international 978community. 979

External Constraints: Along with North Korea’s internal constraints are the country’s 980external constraints. North Korea’s selfish politics and ideology of a fully closed and centrally 981planned society detracts from foreign investment and weaken their national power. As evident in 982comparison to a 20-billion decline in GDP between 2011-2012, 170 with weak industrial “capital 983stock,” poor maintenance shortfalls and spare part resources, has generated years of 984underinvestment’s both domestic and foreign. Other external factors such as sanctions by Japan, 985which has limited their exchange of currency with North Korea and the United States171* who 986

165 Ibid 166 Harvey McDaniel ‘North Korean Ballistic Missile technology in Iran’s hands?’ (The examiner, May 21, 2016) 167 Savada, Andrea Matles. North Korea: A Country Study. Washington D.C.: GPO for the library of Congress, 1993. http://countrystudies.us/north-korea/ (accessed November 17, 2016) 168 Ashley J. Tellis, Janice Bially, Christopher Layne & Melissa McPherson, Measuring National Power in the Post Industrial Age (Santa Monica: RAND, 2000), pg110 169 Ibid 170 "The Conventional Military Balance on the Korean Peninsula." International Institute for Strategic Studies, n.p. 171* Regarding sanctions, “United states has over thirty legal and administrative strictures in force today against the Country of North Korea.” In terms of cost, on average from 1995-2008

35

has stopped food and energy assistance since 2009; South Korea has limited their trade with 987North Korea because of conflicted disputes over the firing on the South Korean destroyer and the 988artillery shelling of the South Korean Island of Yeonpyeong.172 Other noteworthy external 989constraints we have not discussed extensively are the amount of debt North Korea’s owes to the 990world and the international community. Debts on average estimated at 12-billion+ and counting 991to countries like Japan, United States, China and Russia stacks up. See figure 1-1173 for average 992basic debt figures by North Korea annually. On a more positive note from the rubble, Russia the 993successor of the former Soviet Union has waived in the past over 90% of carried over debt from 994the 80’s and the once dependent North Korean economy, which was estimated at 11-billion 995leaving an estimated 1-billion balance.174 There is also a notable trend with external debt owed to 996the international community by North Korea in the billions. 997

Figure 1-1175*

Country 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 North Korea

12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12.5 12.5 12.5 12.5 12.5

The trend is North Korea’s continued delinquency for not re-paying foreign creditors and 998their debts. Although "imperialist" banks and businesses from the West have learned this event 999to their sorrow in abortive attempts to do business with Pyongyang, this is a terrible habit that 1000dates back to the Cold War era, when the DPRK would regularly default to delinquency on loans 1001from its "socialist comrades"176 in China and the former Soviet union.”177 This proves the point 1002above from carried over debt from the 80’s to more recent years (2012) with the former Soviet 1003Union, and unpaid dues to countries like China, South Korea, and even the United States. In 1004essence, from the above figures, we can conclude that the numbers are reasonably consistent 1005from year to year; implying debts carry over on average with no exchange of payments and 1006outstanding debt remain unpaid by North Korea. Understand, that there is really not much of a 1007change in this trend and analysis data to present day 2016. The pattern of delinquency and 1008unpaid debt to creditors is likely to remain considering the country is broke economically and 1009relies on the international community for aid and help. 1010

1011

1012

and since stopping aid to the country in 2009, it is estimated based on figures from these dates at over 1.3-billion in food and energy it is costing the North Korean economy about 2-million/year in food and energy aid from the United States alone. 172 The World Fact Book." Central Intelligence Agency, n.p. 173See Figure 1-1above 174 Berlinger, Joshua. "Russia Forgives $11 Billion in North Korean Debt." Business Insider. September 18, 2012. http://www.businessinsider.com/russia-forgives-11-billion-north-korean-debt-2012-9 (accessed November 18,2015) 175* This entry gives the total public and private debt owed to nonresidents repayable in foreign currency, goods, or services. These figures are calculated on an exchange rate basis, i.e., not in purchasing power parity (PPP) terms. Average debt annually owed by North Korea 176 Defense-Economy, http://defence-economy.blogspot.ca/ (accessed November 22, 2015) 177 "American Enterprise Institute." What Is Wrong with the North Korean Economy. n.p.

Average External Debts Yearly (Fig 1-1)

36

1013

1014

Closing Remarks: In spite of North Korea’s cancerous politics of “self-reliance” with no 1015“external influence,” earlier in (2012), North Korea announced a new "ten-year state strategic 1016plan for economic improvement intended to stimulate the DPRK into the ranks178 of "the more 1017advanced countries such as South Korea, China, and Japan by 2020". Although details of the 1018plan remain undisclosed at this time, it is anticipated that there will be enormous investment 1019requirements running into the tens or even hundreds of billions of dollars.179 By the same token, 1020the North Korean former dear leader Kim Jong IL’s visit to China in May 2011 may have had the 1021same strategic implications. However, later evident that the event was more of a fundraising tour 1022aimed at securing some of the many billions of dollars envisioned by the ambitious plan.180 As of 1023yet, nothing noted as prosperous or profitable from the former leaders visit to include the “ten-1024year strategic plan for economic development. The North Koreans are desperate for ways to 1025strengthen their economy. However, their nuclear weapons program has stifled initiatives from 1026the international community with imposed sanctions, which detracts from interaction to the 1027already centrally closed society. This has plagued the economy for growth potential and even 1028starvation. Arguably, North Korea’s biggest defense mechanism remains their highly militarized 1029state with its proliferated nuclear weapons program. In addition, which they will continue to 1030utilize in order to leverage cohesion with the international community. 1031

Last, North Koreans national goal is to one-day rule and take over the South and govern 1032the territory under its defined ideology. However, likely not to occur with the strong US backing 1033and their presence in the South, but the North remains a significant threat, which means they are 1034readily prepared to attack or counter an attack by the South backed by the US. In addition, North 1035Korea possesses the launch capability to carry-out a nuclear strike against the world. Sadly, 1036North Korea needs the South and the international community desperately because their distant 1037ranking in comparison to the world of 99th in (2011) with an estimated GDP of 40-billion (20-1038billion: 2012) is an economic shame. Japan, China, and South Korea are all members of the top 1039twenty countries in the world with over a trillion dollars+ GDP;181 North Korea cannot come 1040close in comparison nor compete regionally with these countries. Ironically, North Korea is 1041surrounded by regional influence of economic ingenuity from countries like Japan, South Korea, 1042and China.182 However, the stubborn politics of the North will continue along with its deception 1043to the rest of the world with its people at the countries mercy; Regardless of the success of 1044regional neighboring countries, and their impressive economies and GDP, North Korea will 1045likely play its neighbors and the international community to their own advantage for selfish 1046gains; with perceived implications of “economic change” e.g. strategic visits to China or even 1047Japan but will likely continue with deception and continue to fall short because of their 1048cancerous self-inflicted politics. Nevertheless, tight political control remains the government's 1049

178 Ibid. 179 Ibid. 180 Ibid. 181Rankings." Countries of the World: Purchasing Power Parity” http://www.photius.com/rankings/economy/gdp_purchasing_power_parity_2012_0.html (accessed November 18, 2015) 182 Ibid.

37

overriding concern, which will likely inhibit changes to North Korea's current economic system 1050keeping its people oppressed and alienated from equality; moreover, keeping its economy and 1051their citizens in the cycle of oppression. North Korea’s vulnerabilities are a result of self-inflicted 1052inflexible traditional politics, which have proven not to work. Ironically, they remain at the 1053hands and mercy of the international community by means of “external influence” for survival. 1054

1055

1056

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