“1 decade down. 9 decades to go”: Coping with climate, water and weather-related

hazards and disasters in the 21st century

Michael H. GlantzUniversity of Colorado

Boulder, Coloradowww.ccb-boulder.org

December 8, 2012

Natural disaster word collage Source: JimKimmartin.comRitsumeikan Asia Pacific University APU)

Beppu City, Oita, Japan

But first …

Some facts

SCEP 1970Man’s Impact on the Environment

Study of Critical Environmental Problems (SCEP)

M.I.T. Press

•Focused on global atmospheric problems

1.Global problems do not necessarily need global solutions

2.“In the foreseeable future advanced industrial societies will probably have to carry the major burden of remedial action”

Climate Change Impacts on the United States, USGCRP, 2000

Humans and the Climate System

Society is a part of the climate system and not separate from it.

Physical changes are to be expected

The climate is always changing

2012 Report

More Extremes are Expected: but where?

Shanghai Harbor

20041988

Societal changes are also to be expected

“4 Laws of Ecology”

1. Everything is connected to everything else.

2. Everything has to go somewhere or there is no such place as away.

3. Everything is always changing.

4. There is no such thing as a free lunch. rekkerd.org/img/random/

citarum_pollution.jpg

Citarum River, Indonesia

Could these also be the “4 Laws of Natural Disaster” in the 21st Century?

✔

A ‘weighty’ analogy:something to keep in mind

You can’t go home again:• “You can’t recover the past”

• Return to an earlier CO2 level will not necessarily return to the climate once witnessed at that level.

• The amount of CO2 already in the SUBJECTS US to global warming for the rest of the 21ST century.

A “loss of weight” analogy

The future is arriving earlier than expected

• 2020 is the new 2050

• Disappearing Arctic sea ice

• Melting Glaciers worldwide • Warming global temperature • Ecosystems moving upslope

• Rising sea level

The 21st century’s first decade: Some attention-grabbing disasters

• 2000 Mozambican floods• 2003 European heat wave• 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami• 2005 Hurricane Katrina • 2005 Mumbai Floods• 2008 Myanmar Cyclone Nargis• 2008 China’s winter storms• 2009 Australia’s Black Sunday

bushfires• 2010 Russian heat wave• 2010 Pakistan’s Mega Floods

European Heat Wave, 2003

The second decade (so far):Some climate, water and weather-related disasters

** December 3, 2012

Historic 'Super Typhoon' Bopha Smashes Into Philippines: 'Most southerly typhoon ever recorded in the Western Pacific' expected to bring 'life-threatening impacts'

News Headline

Disaster-related News Headlines

Will 2012 top 2011 for record

weather disasters? (Reuters)

US coastal cities in danger as sea levels rise

faster than expected, study warnsA [USA] year for the record books:

2011 (NOAA)

2011, The Disaster Year for

Earthquakes, Tsunamis and Other

Natural Disasters

The Tornadoes Of 2011: The Worst Natural Disaster In The United States Since Hurricane Katrina

Thailand flood reaches Bangkok

“2011 Worst Year for Disasters in History...2012 Will be Worse! Are You Ready?”

Thousands flee as typhoon blows into Philippines

Under the Weather: The disasters just keep piling up

Under the Weather: The disasters just keep piling up

Megastorms Could Drown

Massive Portions of California

A “Teachable Moment”: Super Hurricane Sandy, October 2012 1. Step-like change in the US in views

about climate change and the need to take action on adaptation

2. 3. A reaffirmation that all coastal cities are

vulnerable, rich and poor cities alike

4. Climate change and urbanization rates and enhancing the risk to extremes

5. Highlighted the value of ‘soft’ measures for coping with a changing climate: effective institutional coordination, rapid and accurate information and timely decision-making, front-end coordination, preparedness measures, cooperation of government agencies, effective monitoring and early warning.

6. 7. Media attention focused on Sandy’s

impacts on the USA and not on the impacts in the Caribbean (Cuba, Jamaica, Haiti, the Bahamas). WHY?

8. A local storm can have global implications (NYC is a global financial center)

Every disastrous extreme event is a “teachable moment” identifies lessons for future consideration.

Governments are not ready for consequences of global warming

• Response to Hurricane Sandy in 2012 is a major success, when compared to responses in 2005 to Hurricane Katrina (America’s costliest natural disaster)

• Government responses for Sandy were …– faster, more efficient, more effective,

better executed (so far), more equitable, more caring of victims’ needs, top-down and bottom up approaches were taken, etc.

What a difference a lesson and leadership make!

Learning by Analogy:East Japan’s Great Tsunami provides

lessons for coping with climate change

1. Quick recovery is sometimes impossible. Be prepared for it.2. Bad situations can continue for a long time.3. Prepare many people to cope with disasters because victims are

the real first responders.4. Uncertainty–based risk management is necessary.5. We cannot predict exactly when, where and how a disaster will

occur, but can prepare for uncertainties.6. Preparation of many risk scenarios may be useless.7. Too many risk response manuals act as ‘societal tranquilizers’8. Keep records in more than one locality (e.g., medical

information).

Super Hurricane Sandy Response: was it as good as it gets?

1. Pre-election government response guaranteed the best possible response

2. Reliable forecast of the hurricane3. Credible warning a few days in advance4. Responses to Sandy show resilience of infrastructure, of

government, of people, of neighborhoods5. Attentive political leaders at all levels6. Opposing political ideologies were put aside7. Response was not perfect but perhaps as good as it could

be

An example of foreseeability: An increase in Superstorms

The focus today is on adaptation

But, should it be?

Disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation: Linking or Sinking

• Each has its own bureaucracy• Each has its own time dimension • Each has its own own vocabulary• Each has its own concepts• BUT, both worry about DISASTERS

Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR)

•Coping with existing hazards•Disaster preparedness•Short term focus; getting back to normal, better or different•Identifies prevention needs

Climate Change Adaptation (CCA)

•Concerned with future hazards•Sustainable development•Mid- to long term focus•Does not deal with prevention

CCA DRR

Definitions of Resilience:3 variations of a concept

1. The ability of the community to withstand the consequences of an incident.

2. The power of recovery to original shape and size after removal of the strain which caused the deformation.

1. The capacity to adapt without harm.

We can disagree on what resilience is, But we know what it isn’t !

Dynamite

fishing

in the

Philippines

Introducing Resilient Adaptation(Luthar, 2003, CUP)

• A process that is a flexible, incremental approach

• to adjusting to foreseeable

adverse impacts • of an uncertain changing

climate in the future.

What’s needed for effective resilient adaptation

1. Early Warning systems

2. Foreseeability

3. Expect surprises

4. Improvization

5. Precautionary Principle

6. A focus on “Plan A”

Heightened value of early warning systems

Foreseeability:One form of warning

• Scientists rely on probabilities

• For a hazard’s occurrence• For its potential impacts

• Use foreseeability

• A qualitative version of probability

Foster creative responses:improvization and innovation

• Improvization

• To invent, compose, or perform with little or no preparation

• Is is an intuitive “process of structuring the unknown”

• To perceive, understand and make sense of what is experienced

Victims are the true “first responders”(ZORs: ZERO ORDER RESPONDERS)

Expect climate, water and weather surprises

• Not all ‘surprises’ are ‘unexpectable.’

• I was “semi-surprised”

• “almost surprised”

• “hardly surprised”

• “a little surprised”

• “sort of surprised”

• “somewhat surprised”

There are “foreseeable surprises”Hurricane Katrina 2005, USA

Plan A:“Precautionary Principle”

• “Governments should not use the lack of full scientific information as a reason to postpone action to prevent serious irreversible environmental damage”

» World Lake Vision Committee

FOCUS ON MITIGATION, REDUCE GHG EMISSIONS AND ROLL BACK CO2 LEVELS

Planet Earth is now Global Warming’s “Ground zero”

Seems people have chosen (a)

(a)

(b)

(c)

There are many …“Plans B”Geo-engineering ideas to stop Global Warming

• Mirrors in space• Mimic volcanoes• Brighten clouds• Carbon sequestration• Iron particles in ocean• Global tree planting• Go nuclear• Go renewable energy

www.lightwatcher.com/ chemtrails/smoking_gun.html

While there are

many “Plans B” …

SMIC 1971 Inadvertent Climate Modification

Report of the Study of Man’s Impact on Climate (SMIC)

Edited by SMIC

M.I.T. Press

1. “We recognize a real problem: global temperature increase produced by man’s injection of heat and CO2 … may lead to dramatic reduction even elimination of Arctic sea ice.”

2. “This exercise would be fruitless if we did not believe that society would be rational when faced with a set of decisions that could govern the future habitability of our planet.”