microsoft to close its retail stores · enhanced capabilities of microsoft products from the...

Analysts' Ideas of the Week Microsoft to Close its Retail Stores

June 29, 2020

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PLEASE READ THE IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AT THE BACK OF THIS REPORT

Technology

Company

Name

Ticker Symbol Current Share

Price:

FRC Fair

Value

Estimate

Date of PR

Microsoft

Corp.

NASDAQ:

MSFT

US$196.33 US$212.08 June 22, 25,

26, 2020

PR Content Announced the permanent closure of physical stores to focus on digital storefronts, which would result in a $450M ($0.05/share) pre-tax charge in the June quarter (Q4FY20), which primarily includes asset write-offs and impairments. Following this, all sales will be made online.

FRC Opinion Neutral – We anticipate MSFT’s decision to take its retail stores virtual will have no meaningful impact on the company’s growth trajectory as the physical stores contribute negligible retail revenue (~2% of MSFT’s total consumer sales). Although the pre-tax charge related to closure is quite large, this will be beneficial to the company in the long term as it can fully focus on online sales strategy through continued investments in digital storefronts while creating a framework for enhancing customer experiences. MSFT estimates it reaches 1.2 billion people every month with its online stores at Microsoft.com, and for Xbox and Windows, combined.

By considering the $450 million pre-tax charge in the

June quarter (Q4 FY20), our diluted EPS for the quarter

comes at $1.28 (previously $1.33 per share), or $5.68

($5.73) for FY 2020. Consequently, our target price for

MSFT has marginally decreased to $212.08 per share

(previously $212.58). We reiterate our buy rating,

maintaining a positive outlook for Microsoft.

Announced a multi-year strategic alliance with Hitachi to accelerate the digital transformation of the manufacturing and logistics industries across Southeast Asia, North America and Japan.

Positive - Hitachi and Microsoft will work in sync to meet the growing demand for predictive maintenance and process automation in remote areas and support enterprises to deal with difficulties arising out of the Covid-19 pandemic. They will also provide a skilling initiative that facilitates businesses to grow their digital capabilities and tap new business opportunities. Hitachi will integrate Lumada, a platform for implementation of digital solutions, and its IoT-ready industrial controllers HX Series, with the Microsoft cloud platform, leveraging




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Weekly Mining Commentary The U.S. reported a record high number of new cases of the coronavirus on June 26,

2020. Approximately 36 states in the U.S. are experiencing a rise in new cases. In

addition to the U.S., Iran, Israel, South Korea, China and Singapore are also in the

midst of a second wave.

Azure, Dynamics 365 and Microsoft 365. This will allow new horizons for manufacturing and logistics companies to accelerate digital transformation. In our view, the enhanced capabilities of Microsoft products from the partnership would attract new customers while helping to retain existing ones.

Acquisition of CyberX, a cyber security start-up focused on developing a platform to protect internet-controlled industrial control systems.

Positive - With the CyberX acquisition, Microsoft will

boost its capabilities to secure IOT deployments across

diverse industries. Specifically, CyberX complements the

existing Azure IoT security capabilities across industrial

IoT, Operational Technology and infrastructure scenarios.

Microsoft could also leverage the same technology

internally to enhance visibility and resiliency of its data

centers. Although MSFT has not disclosed the deal

amount, it is rumoured to be around $165 million. The

acquisition will enable Microsoft to offer unified security

across converged IT and industrial networks. Although a

small deal with no meaningful impact on financials, this

will create a positive image about the company with

respect to enhancing security across its key products,

especially in these unprecedented times where most

services are on ‘Work-From-Home’ mode.




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Source: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Most of major countries, except India, Brazil and Mexico, are past the first wave.

India has only tested 6k per its one million population, while Brazil and Mexico have

tested 14k and 4k, respectively. These are significantly low rates relative to other

countries, such as the U.S. (99k), the U.K (137k), Russia (132k), and Spain (110k). As

the number of tests increase, we expect India, Brazil and Mexico to continue to report a

higher number of new cases.



https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/


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Source: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

European countries have so far done a better job in bringing the virus under

control. In the table below, note the significant increase in cases, post reopening, in

certain U.S. states.

As a result, over 10 states are now pausing plans to reopen. In addition, two states

(Texas and Florida) are reimposing restrictions on certain sectors (especially bars /

restaurants).



https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/25/us/texas-coronavirus-cases-reopening.html


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We believe that most governments will likely start to reimpose restrictions before

any lockdowns, considering the first lockdown’s negative impact on their

economies. That said, China has reinstated a lockdown near Beijing after a surge in

cases. Israel has stated that they will increase restrictions. Argentina has announced it

will reimpose lockdowns starting July 1st. The survey below shows the rising demand for

tighter reopening policies in the U.S.




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As a result of the rising concerns of a second wave, the major stock indices stayed flat

or fell 1% - 2% in the past week. Note that most of them have recouped 85% of the

losses from COVID-19. On average, they are down 11% from pre-COVID levels.

Source: FRC / Various

As for metal prices, gold and silver stayed relatively flat WoW. Among base metals,

copper prices were up 2.6%, while prices of both zinc and nickel dropped after reporting

gains in the previous week.

We believe the rising risk of a pull back in business activities will likely dampen the economic recovery underway.




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The inventory levels of copper declined WoW on the LME and SHFE (Shanghai Futures Exchange), which is a reason why copper prices reported gains in the past week.

Valuations – The valuations of gold producers increased, while that of base metals producers declined in the past week.




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Last week, we had revised our outlook on base metal prices from positive to

limited near-term upside. We are maintaining this outlook due to the rising probability

of a pull back in business activities, and because commodity prices have already ran up

significantly in the past few weeks, and are currently at pre-COVID levels.




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We remain bullish on gold in the near-term as the same four factors (presented below) that have been driving prices continue to support higher prices.

Despite our positive outlook on previous metals, we are wary of stock market valuations, as they are currently at record highs, as indicated by the P/E ratios below.




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In the following section, we review companies that announced key developments in the

past week.




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Mining / Exploration

Company

Name:

Ticker

Symbol

Current Share

Price:

FRC Fair Value

Estimate:

Date of PR:

Los Andes

Copper Ltd.

TSXV: LA $0.35 $1.31 June-25-2020

PR Content LA’s major investor, Resource Capital Funds (“RCF”), has agreed to acquire an outstanding NSR on LA’s Vizcachitas project in Chile, currently held by a third party. RCF will pay US$14 million to LA in stages. LA will use US$7 to US$8 million of these funds to purchase the third-party’s NSR.

FRC Opinion Positive – This deal has two positives: a) LA makes a $6 million - $7 million profit

from this transaction; the actual NPV is lower as the payments are made in stages.

b) Reflects RCF’s continued conviction on Vizcachitas.

LA is aiming to complete a Pre- Feasibility Study by the end of Q1-2021. A PEA, completed in 2019, had returned an AT-NPV at 8% of US$0.81 billion at a copper price of US$2.50 / lb.

Company

Name:

Ticker

Symbol

Current Share

Price:

FRC Fair Value

Estimate:

Date of PR:

Eskay Mining

Corp

TSXV: ESK $0.22 N/A June-22-2020

PR Content Completed a $2.8 million financing, including $2.28 million in flow-through funds and $0.51 million in working capital funds. The company is planning an aggressive exploration program in the coming months, including an airborne electromagnetic survey, ground based induced polarization survey, a property wide gold stream sediment survey, geological and geochemical re-logging of historic drill core, etc.

FRC Opinion Positive – We were pleased with the financing as the company was in a $0.50 million working capital deficit as of February 2020. Eskay’s projects are in the Golden Triangle in B.C., close to the historic Eskay Creek gold-silver mine, Seabridge’s (TSX: SEA) KSM gold-copper project, and Pretium’s (TSX: PVG) Brucejack gold projects. The upcoming programs will likely enable the company to identify drill targets. We will be publishing a detailed update shortly.




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Company

Name:

Ticker

Symbol

Current Share

Price:

FRC Fair Value

Estimate:

Date of PR:

Hannan Metals

Ltd.

TSXV: HAN $0.30 $0.57 June-22-2020

PR Content Reported sampling results from five separate outcrops, spread over 400 m in a newly discovered area, located 2 km south of previously reported mineralization, which had returned 3 metres of 2.5% copper and 22 g/t silver. These results are from Hannan’s new San Martin project in Peru. Highlights of the new results below: ➢ 2.5 metres @ 0.8% copper and 14 g/t

silver ➢ 0.8 metres @ 2.8% copper and 14 g/t

silver ➢ 0.2 metres @ 6.9% copper and 32 g/t

silver

FRC Opinion Positive – The high-grade copper values are encouraging. Management intends to continue sampling to evaluate the full scope of mineralization. HAN’s near-term focus will be on its Peruvian exploration properties. Note that our fair value estimate does not account for any upside from the assets in Peru as they are in very early stages. 100% of our valuation comes from the zinc-lead asset in Ireland, which has an indicated resource of 2.66 million tonnes at 8.8% zinc equivalent (“ZnEq”), and an inferred resource of 1.68 Mt at 8.2% ZnEq.




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Company

Name:

Ticker

Symbol

Current Share

Price:

FRC Fair Value

Estimate:

Date of PR:

Avrupa

Minerals Ltd.

TSXV: AVU $0.025 $0.20 June-25-

2020

PR Content Receives a five-year exploration license for its Alvalade copper-zinc project in Portugal. Option partner, MATSA, will commence work immediately, with a goal to resume drilling later this year.

FRC Opinion Positive - We were pleased to see the resumption of work at Alvalade, especially considering that the project has returned attractive results in the past. Lundin Mining’s (TSX: LUN) Neves – Corvo copper-zinc mine is approximately 70 km from Alvalade. MATSA is a 50:50 JV company of two reputable global trading / investment firms, including Mubadala Investment Company (a UAE state-owned holding company) and Trafigura (a global commodity trading company). Note that AVU is the only TSXV listed prospect / project generator exclusively focused on Europe.

Company

Name:

Ticker

Symbol

Current Share

Price:

FRC Fair Value

Estimate:

Date of PR:

Bayhorse Silver TSXV: BHS $0.08 $0.68 June-23-2020

PR Content Ore-sorting tests resulted in a reduction in ore volume by 90% to 95%. The test produced a five kg sample with a head grade of 985 g/t silver, 1.16% copper and 1.87% zinc. Metallurgical tests showed a recovery of 87% silver.

FRC Opinion Positive – These are very positive results; a key positive of ore-sorting is that the company can mine and process lower grade ore. BHS is continuing metallurgical studies and evaluating the potential of processing concentrates on-site. We will make changes to our model once we have more clarity on the inputs. The project can be quickly put back into production. As announced last week, BHS is planning a drill program (10 holes / 1,500 m) on its second asset - the Brandywine gold-silver project in B.C.




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Special Situations

Company

Name:

Ticker

Symbol

Current Share

Price:

FRC Fair Value

Estimate:

Date of PR:

Siyata Mobile

Inc.

TSXV: SIM $0.10 $1.14 June 26, 2020

June 24, 2020

PR Content

Closed a private placement for gross

proceeds of $1.33 million. The private

placement constitutes a related party

transaction, as the subscriber (Accel

Telecom Ltd.) is an insider of Siyata.

Received purchase orders valued at

$0.63 million for its Uniden UV350 from a

leading distributor (name undisclosed)

that serves US Tier 1 cellular operators.

FRC Opinion

Positive – At the end of 2019, Siyata

reported a cash position of $3.47 million,

working capital of $6.70 million, and a

current ratio of 2.57x. The private placement

further strengthens Siyata’s liquidity

position.

Positive – We are pleased to see Siyata

continually secure purchase orders for its

Uniden UV350. Siyata is scheduled to

report Q1-2020 on June 30th, 2020, to

which we will provide an update report.




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Cannabis

Company

Name:

Ticker

Symbol

Current Share

Price:

FRC Fair Value

Estimate:

Date of PR:

Indiva Limited TSXV: NDVA $0.30 $0.59 June 26, 2020

PR Content

Announced a private placement for up to

$5.10 million. The first tranche of $1.01

million is a related-party transaction

(director participation) and was closed on

June 25, 2020. Proceeds from the private

placement are expected to be used for

equipment purchases, working capital,

and general corporate purposes.

FRC Opinion

Positive – Indiva’s liquidity position has

been a concern for us. At the end of Q1-

2020, Indiva reported a cash position of

$1.06 million, a working capital deficiency of

$6.01 million, and a current ratio of 0.69x.

We are pleased to see Indiva alleviate our

concerns on its liquidity position through the

announcement of a private placement.




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Company

Name:

Ticker

Symbol

Current Share

Price:

FRC Fair Value

Estimate:

Date of PR:

FinCanna

Capital Corp.

CSE: CALI $0.08 $0.29 June 25, 2020

June 23, 2020

PR Content

Announced a two-year extension on

convertible debentures (book value of

$4.34 million) that were due in calendar

Q1-2021. Furthermore, the company

announced plans to raise $2.5 million

through a new convertible debenture

financing. The management team is

expected to subscribe for $0.50 million.

Restructured its royalty agreement with

portfolio company, QVI Inc. FinCanna will

provide an additional US$1.5 million to

QVI in exchange for increasing the

existing tiered royalty rate from 6% - 15%

to a flat rate of 20%, among other term

revisions.

FRC Opinion

Positive – We had expected FinCanna to

restructure its debt. We are pleased to see

management’s involvement in the new debt

financing, as it indicates confidence in the

company.

Positive – QVI is currently in commercial

operations. FinCanna provided funding of

US$3 million to QVI to acquire an average

royalty rate of 10.5% (US$0.29 million per

royalty percentage). The additional funding

to QVI to convert the tired royalty rate into a

flat rate of 20% is favourable for FinCanna,

as they are now paying US$0.23 million per

royalty percentage. FinCanna is expected to

report financials in the coming weeks, to





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Company

Name:

Ticker

Symbol

Current Share

Price:

FRC Fair Value

Estimate:

Date of PR:

AgraFlora

Organics

International

CSE: AGRA $0.06 $0.38 June 26, 2020

PR Content

Entered into a cultivation partnership with

MicroC45 Inc. for hemp cultivation in

Ontario. The yield of this cultivation

partnership is expected to be 50,000 kg

of CBD hemp for fall 2020.

Announced intentions to complete a non-

brokered private placement for gross

proceeds of up to $2 million.

FRC Opinion

Positive – The CBD hemp is expected to

be processed by MicroC45 Inc. into CBD

isolate and CBD distillate for sale to

consumers in Canada. Although we are not

privy to the financial terms of this

partnership, we believe the partnership is

expected to generate meaningful revenue

for AgraFlora. AgraFlora is scheduled to

report financials in the coming weeks, to


Positive – At the end of 2019, Agraflora

reported a cash position of $4.08 million, a

working capital deficiency of $3.89 million

and a current ratio of 0.61x. We are pleased

to see the company look to improve its

liquidity position.




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Company

Name:

Ticker

Symbol

Current Share

Price:

FRC Fair Value

Estimate:

Date of PR:

Captiva Verde

Land Corp.

CSE: PWR $0.48 $0.86 June 29, 2020

PR Content

Received a cultivation license from Health

Canada for its outdoor grow site.

According to the company, they are now

authorized to cultivate, propagate, test,

harvest, and sell cannabis flower.

FRC Opinion

Positive – We have independently verified

that Captiva has received its cultivation

license from Health Canada. With the

cultivation license being received on-time,

we believe the risk profile of Captiva has

decreased. We will be revising our valuation

of Captiva in a follow-up note.

Company

Name:

Ticker

Symbol

Current Share

Price:

FRC Fair Value

Estimate:

Date of PR:

CannaOne

Technologies

Inc.

CSE: CNNA $0.15 N/A June 24, 2020

PR Content

Announced plans to broaden the industry

sectors that Bloomkit covers. The

company plans to work with clientele in

the global medicinal mushroom and

ayurvedic market sectors, among others.

FRC Opinion

Neutral – Bloomkit is the company’s

proprietary turnkey suite of online

marketplace services and solutions.

Bloomkit operates in a highly competitive

industry, against well-established players

such as Shopify (TSX: SHOP). It is

uncertain whether Bloomkit will be able to

compete effectively against other players.

According to Oberlo, the top five

ecommerce software platforms hold 65% of

the ecommerce platform market share in the

USA. We expect this percentage to be

similar in other jurisdictions.




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Weekly Cannabis Commentary Cannabis Industry Performance

Note: MCAN and XCAN was launched on November 18, 2019 and January 20, 2020, respectively.

Source: TMX Money, FRC

Over the past week, the Horizons Marijuana Life Sciences ETF (TSX: HMMJ / “HMMJ”), the Standard & Poor’s/MX International Cannabis Index (“MCAN”), and the Standard & Poor’s/TSX Cannabis Index (“XCAN”) generated a return of -6%, -4%, and -5%, respectively. This week’s poor performance is attributed to the resurgence of coronavirus cases in the United States, which sparked fears of a second lockdown.

Valuation of Select Canadian LPs

The following shows the average Enterprise Value to Revenue (“EV/R”) of the cannabis

companies that we track.




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Average EV/R (October 2019 – June 2020)

Source: S&P Capital IQ, FRC

Source: S&P Capital IQ, FRC

The average EV/R, as of June 29, 2020, is 9.6x – a deterioration from an average EV/R

of 10.7x as of June 22, 2020. The average EV/R, from October 7, 2019 to date, is 12.3x.

As a number of companies are not EBITDA positive, we have refrained from tracking

the average Enterprise Value to EBITDA (“EV/EBITDA”).

This week, we look at cannabis sales in several U.S. states.




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Cannabis Sales in the United States

The following shows adult-use cannabis sales in (1) California, (2) Colorado, (3) Nevada,

(4), Oregon and (5) Washington state. These five states, according to our research, are

currently the largest markets for recreational cannabis in the United States.

Taken From: Marijuana Business Daily

To summarize our discussions below, cannabis sales have remained strong in

several states amid the current economic downturn. In states were cannabis

sales declined, we believe it is primarily attributed to the lack of tourism.

California: Adult-use cannabis sales were US$319 million in May 2020, a year-over-

year (“YoY”) improvement of 39%. Although the COVID-19 pandemic has caused a

drag in cannabis sales (February and March showed a YoY improvement of 84% and

78%, respectively), it is encouraging to see cannabis sales in May 2020 be higher on a

month-over-month (“MoM”) basis. California illustrates the resilience of cannabis sales

during an economic downturn.

Colorado: Adult-use cannabis sales were US$113 million in May 2020, a YoY decline

of 1%. According to the Colorado Office of Economic Development and International

Trade (“OEDIT”), tourism is one of the strongest economic drivers of Colorado. With this




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in mind, and noting travel restrictions in the U.S. due to COVID-19, the decline in

cannabis sales in the state of Colorado is to be expected.

Nevada: Adult-use cannabis sales were US$43 million in May 2020, a YoY decline of

24%. According to Marijuana Business Daily, 80% of adult-use cannabis sales in

Nevada takes place in Clark County, where Las Vegas is located. With Las Vegas

essentially shut down due to COVID-19, the decline in cannabis sales in the state of

Nevada is to be expected.

Oregon: Adult-use cannabis sales were US$103 million in May 2020, a YoY

improvement of 58%. Cannabis sales have been steadily rising amid the COVID-19

pandemic. Noting the strong YoY and MoM increase, the state of Oregon illustrates the

resilience of cannabis sales during an economic downturn.

Washington State: Adult-use cannabis sales were US$119 million in May 2020, a

YoY improvement of 30%. Cannabis sales have been steadily rising amid the COVID-

19 pandemic. Again, this illustrates the resilience of cannabis sales during an economic

downturn.

Canadian Retail Cannabis Pricing

Source: Online Provincial Cannabis Stores, FRC

The average retail price per gram decreased 0.62% week-over-week to reach

$11.36. Over the long-term, we continue to reiterate our view that the retail price per




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gram of cannabis will decrease to combat the black market for cannabis. According to

Statistics Canada, the average per gram price of illegal cannabis in Q4-2019 was

$5.73. The following shows the trend in pricing for illegal cannabis:

Illegal Cannabis Pricing

Source: Statistics Canada, FRC

Retail Cannabis Stores

As of June 29, 2020, there are 964 retail cannabis stores across Canada. This is a 1%

increase from a week ago.

Number of Retail Cannabis Stores in Canada

Source: Provincial Websites, FRC

The following shows the number of retail cannabis stores by province/territory:




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Source: Provincial Websites, FRC

As shown above, Ontario and Quebec are the two largest underserved provinces for

cannabis, with a population / store of 153k and 202k, respectively. Growth in Canada’s

cannabis market hinges on more retail cannabis store openings in the two

aforementioned provinces.

The below chart shows Canadian retail dried cannabis flower pricing since we began

price coverage.

Canadian Retail Dried Cannabis Flower Pricing

Source: Online Provincial Cannabis Stores, FRC




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Disclaimers and Disclosure The opinions expressed in this report are the true opinions of the analyst(s) about any companies and industries mentioned. Any “forward looking statements” are our best estimates and opinions based upon information that is publicly available and that we believe to be correct, but we have not independently verified with respect to truth or correctness. There is no guarantee that our forecasts will materialize. Actual results will likely vary. Companies mentioned in this report may be covered by FRC under an issuer paid model or be candidates for coverage. FRC or companies with related management, may hold shares in some companies mentioned in this report. Distribution procedure: our reports are distributed first to our web-based subscribers on the date shown on this report then made available to delayed access users through various other channels for a limited time. To subscribe for real-time access to research, visit https://www.researchfrc.com/website/subscribe for subscription options. This report contains "forward looking" statements. Forward-looking statements regarding the Company, industry, and/or stock’s performance inherently involve risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ from such forward-looking statements. Factors that would cause or contribute to such differences include, but are not limited to, continued acceptance of the Company's products/services in the marketplace; acceptance in the marketplace of the Company's new product lines/services; competitive factors; new product/service introductions by others; technological changes; dependence on suppliers; systematic market risks and other risks discussed in the Company's periodic report filings, including interim reports, annual reports, and annual information forms filed with the various securities regulators. By making these forward-looking statements, Fundamental Research Corp. and the analyst/author of this report undertakes no obligation to update these statements for revisions or changes after the date of this report. Fundamental Research Corp DOES NOT MAKE ANY WARRANTIES, EXPRESSED OR IMPLIED, AS TO RESULTS TO BE OBTAINED FROM USING THIS INFORMATION AND MAKES NO EXPRESS OR IMPLIED WARRANTIES OR FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR USE. ANYONE USING THIS REPORT ASSUMES FULL RESPONSIBILITY FOR WHATEVER RESULTS THEY OBTAIN FROM WHATEVER USE THE INFORMATION WAS PUT TO. ALWAYS TALK TO YOUR FINANCIAL ADVISOR BEFORE YOU INVEST. WHETHER A STOCK SHOULD BE INCLUDED IN A PORTFOLIO DEPENDS ON ONE’S RISK TOLERANCE, OBJECTIVES, SITUATION, RETURN ON OTHER ASSETS, ETC. ONLY YOUR INVESTMENT ADVISOR WHO KNOWS YOUR UNIQUE CIRCUMSTANCES CAN MAKE A PROPER RECOMMENDATION AS TO THE MERIT OF ANY PARTICULAR SECURITY FOR INCLUSION IN YOUR PORTFOLIO. This REPORT is solely for informative purposes and is not a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security. It is not intended as being a complete description of the company, industry, securities or developments referred to in the material. Any forecasts contained in this report were independently prepared unless otherwise stated, and HAVE NOT BEEN endorsed by the Management of the company which is the subject of this report. Additional information is available upon request. THIS REPORT IS COPYRIGHT. YOU MAY NOT REDISTRIBUTE THIS REPORT WITHOUT OUR PERMISSION. Please give proper credit, including citing Fundamental Research Corp and/or the analyst, when quoting information from this report. The information contained in this report is intended to be viewed only in jurisdictions where it may be legally viewed and is not intended for use by any person or entity in any jurisdiction where such use would be contrary to local regulations or which would require any registration requirement within such jurisdiction.



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