Minnesota Demographic Change

Tom Gillaspy, State Demographer

Mn Dept of Administration

October 2005

Minnesota Has Been Very Successful, (Especially For A Cold Weather State at the

End of the Road)

• Our economy no longer depends on our resource base

• Our economic growth rate has exceeded the national average

• We rank with the leaders on many social and economic indicators

• Education has been a key contributor to the state’s success

Minnesota Is Now Substantially Above Average In Per Capita Personal Income

0.948 0.954

1.0891.078

0.90

0.95

1.00

1.05

1.10

Per Capita Income Per Capita DisposableIncome

Rat

io M

n t

o U

S

1950

2004

US Bureau of Economic Analysis. In 1950 Mn was 1.87% of US total personal income. In 2004Mn was 1.89% of US total personal income

Minnesota Has Made Great Strides In Education Since 1950

35%

6%

91%

31%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

At Least A HighSchool Diploma

BachelorsDegree Or More

Percent of People Age 25+

1950 2003

Census

Minnesota Ranks Highly In Many Social/Economic Indicators

• 4th lowest poverty rate

• 3rd percent of 16-64 employed

• 1st percent with health insurance

• 1st home ownership

• 8th median family income

• 10th in personal income per capita in 2004 - 25th

in 1960

• 11th Per capita disposable income

• 4th percent of children in married couple families

• 2nd percent with at least high school diploma

• 1st United Health Foundation ranking of state healthiness

• 3rd Kids Count 2005

Selected indicators for 2004

Minnesota is Growing—Rapidly For The Frost Belt

• Minnesota adds about half a million people per decade—713,000 by 2020

• Census Bureau has us growing faster than any other Midwest and northeast state

• Projections have us maintaining our 8 congressional seats

Minnesota is Prosperous, But…

We still have people in need and those people can get lost in a sea of prosperity

Part of the reason we are so special is that we are not very diverse. This is changing

Aging will move our attention away from issues of children and youth

Our future depends in great degree on how we resolve disparities especially in education and health

Many Social/Economic Indicators Are Related And Also Related To Big

Demographic Trends

1. Suburbanization

2. Aging

3. Increased diversity

Sources Of Minnesota Population Change 2000-2004

Immigration Accounts For 33% Of Growth

126,925

60,274

-7,728

181,466

-50,000 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000

Natural Increase

InternationalMigration

Domestic Migration

Total Change

Most Growth Is In The Twin City Suburban Doughnut

• Twin Cities accounts for 78% of growth in the state

• Suburban ring is spreading outward

• 7 of 13 metro counties in fastest 100 growing of the nation

• Rural and central city declines sine 1950

• Population growth is related to economic growth—huge differences exist in life experiences and prosperity

Population Change

Loss

Gain Under 1,000

Gain 5,000 to 1,000

Gain More Than 5,000

Population Change 2000-04Census Bureau Estimate

Aging Is The Dominant Demographic Trend In Minnesota And The Nation

• It is not normal for a society to age

• Dramatic changes will be seen in 2008 and 2011 and beyond

• By 2020, the number of Minnesotans 65+ will increase by 53%. By 2030 it will double

This Decade And Next Will See Dramatic Differences In Growth In Key Age Groups

-0.2%

0.1%

2.3%

5.4%

1.0%

0.4%

-0.5%

1.3%

3.0%

0.3%

-1% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6%

E-12 Education (5-17)

Higher Education (18-24)

Long-Term Care (85+)

Retirement (60-64)

Prime Working Age (16-64)

Average Annual Growth Rate

2005-10 2010-20

Minnesota Births 1926 to 2003

0100002000030000400005000060000700008000090000

100000

Births

Deaths

Minnesota’s Boom Generation Begins Turning 65 in 2011

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

1,400,000

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

18-24

65+

5-17

Census counts & State Demographer projection

Minnesota is Growing More Diverse

• Minnesota is not very diverse—13% minority v US 32%

• Over half of total population growth this decade is minority.

• Diversity also means culture, language, religion, national origin—all changing

Upper Midwest Becoming More Diverse But Still Less Than The Nation

4.1%

6.3%

5.8%

8.8%

8.7%

24.4%

8.1%

12.8%

8.7%

12.5%

13.5%

32.1%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35%

Iowa

Minnesota

North Dakota

South Dakota

Wisconsin

United States

Percent Population of Color

2003

1990

Note: Population except white alone, not Hispanic, 2003 Census Bureau estimate

Students Of Color Are Increasing While White Students Are Declining

-41,938

12,367 13,510

3,381522

-12,158

-50000

-40000

-30000

-20000

-10000

0

10000

20000

White Black Hispanic Asian Am Indian Total

Ch

ang

e E

nro

llm

ent

1999

to

200

3

Mn Dept of Education data

Change In Minnesota School Enrollments 1999-00 to 2004-05 By Language Spoken At Home

-43,974

25,460

-18,514

-50000

-40000

-30000

-20000

-10000

0

10000

20000

30000

English Speaking

Total Non English

Total K-12 Students

Number Of Immigrants Admitted With Intended Residence of Minnesota

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

2004

2003

2002

2001

2000

1999

1998

1997

1996

1995

1994

1993

1992

1991

1990

1989

1988

1987

1986

1985

1984

1983

1982

Most Of Minnesota’s 339,000 Foreign Born People Entered The US In Since 1990

2000 or later20%

1990-9941%

1980-8921%

Before 198018%

Net Number

Zero

1 to 100

100 to 500

500 to 1000

1000 to 5000

5000 to 18,000

Immigration 2000-02Five-State Area County Population

Age Distribution of Minnesota’s Foreign Born & Total Populations

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

Under

55

to 9

10 to

14

15 to

19

20 to

24

25-2

9

30-3

4

35-3

9

40-4

4

45-4

9

50-5

4

55-5

9

60 to

64

65-6

9

70-7

4

75-7

9

80-8

485

+

Foreign Born Total

2000 Census 5% PUMS

The Top Ten Countries Account For 55% Of Minnesota’s Immigration In 2004

Somalia 1,445

Ethiopia 798

India 707

Mexico 692

Philippines 569

Vietnam 503

Kenya 488

China 469

Liberia 468

Russia 302

Dept of HomelandSecurity

Non-English Speaking Students: While Minneapolis and St. Paul have the largest numbers, some

smaller districts also have substantial proportions

34.2%30.3%

29.6%29.7%29.4%

41.1%29.3%

39.1%9.8%

3.0%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%

Brooklyn Center

Butterfield

Minneapolis

Lynd

Richfield

St. Paul

Sleepy Eye

Worthington

State 04-05

State 93-94

Percent of Students in 2004-05

Source: Mn Dept of Education data

Health Care Costs Will Crowd Out Other Spending And Investment , Both Private

And Public

116153

224241

264275

490

$0

$500

$1,000

$1,500

$2,000

$2,500

$3,000

$3,500

$4,000

1993 1998 2003 2004 2005 2006 2014

NH

E i

n B

illi

on

s

State/Local

Federal

Private

Heffler, et al., Health Affairs, Feb 2005, Center for Medicare and Medicaid Services