money weekly 17 january 2014
TRANSCRIPT
Money Weekly 17 January 2014
Aditya Birla Money LimitedCello Triumph, Unit No. 502-503 & 505 | I. B. Patel Road | of f W.E. Highway | Goregaon (East) | Mumbai - 400063 | Tel: +91 22 61802800
Page No: 1
Page No.
Page No.
Corporate News 2 Industrial Production 6
Macro Economic News 2 Consumer Durables 6
Global Sector Performance 3 Capital Goods 6
Nifty Index Forward Multiples 3 Derivatives Corner 7-9
Global Indices 4 Outlook 10
Government Bond 5 Event Calendar 10
December consumer price index (CPI) eased to 9.87%
6260 6237
6167
6279
62216168
6319
58505900595060006050610061506200625063006350
(30000)
(20000)
(10000)
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
06-Dec 12-Dec 19-Dec 26-Dec 02-Jan 09-Jan 16-Jan
(` Mn)
FII (LHS) MF (LHS) Nifty (RHS) Source: NSE Note: As per Thursday closing
HCL TECH 6.3%
BHEL 5.4%
Infosys 5%
L&T 4.9%
HDFC LTD 4.8%
Cipla Ltd 4.6%
NMDC Ltd 4.6%
Indusind Bank4.3%
Ranbaxy Lab(12.4%)
Bharti Airtel(5.9%)
TCS (3%)
Lupin(2.9%)
Sun Pharma (2.5%)
Tata Power (2.5%)
Tata Steel (1.8%)
JP Asso.(1.6%)
Source: NSE
Developed Equity Markets
WTD YTD
U.S. (S&P)* 1,846 0.2 (0.1)
UK (FTSE)* 6,833 1.4 1.2
Japan (Nikkei 225) 15,734 (1.1) (3.4)
Germany (DAX)* 9,783 3.3 2.4
France (CAC)* 4,333 1.9 0.9
Italy (FTSEMIB)* 19,943 1.9 5.1
Spain (IBEX)* 10,489 1.9 5.8
BRIC Equity Markets
India (Sensex) 21,064 1.5 (0.5)
India (Nifty) 6,262 1.5 (0.7)
China (Shanghai) 2,005 (0.4) (5.2)
Russia (Micex)* 1,494 1.7 (0.6)
Brazil (Ibov)* 49,696 (0.0) (3.5)
Asian Equity Markets
Hong Kong(HSI) 23,133 1.3 (0.7)
Korea (Kospi) 1,944 0.3 (3.3)
BSE Sector
WTD YTD
BSE Mid Cap 6,487 (1.4) (3.3)
BSE Small Cap 6,477 (1.4) (1.1)
Auto 12,028 0.6 (1.9)
Bankex 12,481 1.2 (4.0)
Capital Goods 9,689 2.9 (5.6)
Power 1,590 0.0 (6.5)
Realty 1,327 (1.6) (7.5)
Technology 5,147 (0.1) 1.9
FMCG 6,548 (0.4) (0.3)
Metal 9,635 0.9 (3.3)
Institutional Activity
WTD MTD YTD
FII (Rs bn)* 14.5 17.2 17.2
MF (Rs bn)* (18.2) (26.8) (26.8)
Commodities Update
Unit Close WTD YTD
Crude Oil(Brent)** $/Bbl 106 (1.3) (4.4)
Gold(OTC)** $/Oz 1,241 (0.6) 2.9
Silver(OTC)** $/Oz 20 (0.5) 3.0
Copper(LME)** $/MT 7,336 0.1 (0.5)
Aluminum(LME)** $/MT 1,757 2.1 0.1
Sugar(LIFFE)** $/MT 415 (2.7) (7.6)
ZINC(LME)** $/MT 2,074 2.1 0.9
Currency
Close WTD YTD
INR/USD** 61.6 0.6 0.4
USD/EURO** 1.4 0.5 1.1
USD/JPY** 104.4 (0.2) 0.9
% Change
% Change
Last Close
% Change
Last Close
Spot market
% Change
* As per Thursday closing ** As per Friday 16:30 hrs IST Source: Bloomberg
Top Nifty Movers Shakers
Index
Nifty & Institutional Flow
Major Event of the Week
Money Weekly 17 January 2014
Aditya Birla Money LimitedCello Triumph, Unit No. 502-503 & 505 | I. B. Patel Road | of f W.E. Highway | Goregaon (East) | Mumbai - 400063 | Tel: +91 22 61802800
Page No: 2
Coal India declares interim dividend of Rs 29/share; Record date – 20th Jan14; Implied dividend yield of ~10% - Post this event,
the overhang of FPO will get removed and going forward, the street will start discounting FY15E/FY16E numbers – Positive in
medium to long term for Coal India; Will also have positive sentimental impact on all cash rich PSU companies in short term
Coal India has approved a special dividend of Rs 29/share (on FV of Rs 10/share) for the current financial year, which would fetch Rs
164.8 bn to government exchequer and help meet its disinvestment target of Rs 400 bn. Beside, government would also get dividend
distribution tax of Rs 31.1 bn from CIL and its subsidiaries. Thus government would get Rs 195.9 bn from CIL and its subsidiaries by way of
dividend and its tax. This dividend would be disbursed on and from January 25, 2014 to those shareholders who are holding the CIL shares
on January 20, 2014.
In short term, this event will lead to upmove in stock price of Coal India. Once, the dividend is paid, the overhand of FPO on its stock price
will get removed and going forward, the street will start discounting FY15E/FY16E numbers. With many environmental clearances in place,
the stock may give CAGR return of 10-15% over FY14-FY16E period.
TCS announces 3Q results; PAT above street estimates. Accumulate from medium to long term perspective.
TCS’s revenues jumped 32.5% YoY to Rs.212.9bn slightly below street estimates, however the company’s profits jumped 50.3% YoY to
Rs.53.3bn which was above street estimates. Operating margins stood at 29.7% for the quarter, and the company said it would be able to
maintain its margin in 27-29% range. The company said it had invested 70bps of its operating margins during the quarter into sales. Overall
the results are positive and we recommend investors to accumulate the stock from medium to long term.
Crude oil slumps on Iran nuclear deal with West – Brent and WTI falls to $106.7/barrel and $91.7/barrel respectively – Positive in
medium term for ONGC, OIL India, BPCL, HPCL and IOC
Brent and WTI has corrected to $ 106.7/barrel and $ 91.7/barrel respectively. This is led by reaction to weekend reports that Iran agreed on
a multilateral plan that would curb Tehran's nuclear ambitions in a deal that could end sanctions on the Middle East country and allow it to
resume exports and add to global supply. Talks among the U.S., Russia, China, Britain, Germany, France and Iran ended in agreement on
a six-month deal that will limit advancements in Iran's nuclear program in exchange for easing economic sanctions against Tehran starting
20th Jan14. In November, Iran pledged to eliminate its stocks of 20% enriched uranium within 6 months and limit the enrichment of
uranium to 5%. Trade sanctions slapped on Iran due to its alleged nuclear ambitions have taken out more than 1 million barrels of oil per
day from the global market over the past two years. We believe this news to be positive in medium term for ONGC, OIL India, BPCL, HPCL
and IOC.
Domestic International
IIP for the month of Nov13 shrinks 2.1%
India’s industrial production shrunk for the second month
running at -2.1% in November, reducing the prospects improved
growth in the third quarter October-December this financial year.
Manufacturing accounting for 76% of the industrial production
faring badly contracting 3.5%. Capital goods, seen as a
barometer for investment, too, was not encouraging at it grew by
a mere 0.3% in November. White goods in particular in
consumer goods too had a poor showing. Industrial output for
the first eight months for the present financial year (April-
November) shrunk 0.2% against 0.9% in year ago period.
Government defers Rs 150 bn bond issue to contain fiscal
deficit
The government's cash register is ringing again, raising the
hope that the fiscal slide would have begun to get arrested in
December and the government would achieve its fiscal deficit
target for the year. The finance ministry deferred a planned Rs
150 bn bond auction to raise funds in view of its comfortable
cash position because of robust direct tax collections in
December and anticipation of large dividend flows.
U.S. posts smallest job gains in three years - Just 74,000
positions added in December; unemployment rate falls to
6.7%
The United States added just 74,000 jobs in December to mark the
smallest gain in three years, a disappointing number likely
influenced by poor weather. The unemployment rate fell three ticks
last month to 6.7%, the first time it’s dropped below 7% in 60
months. The decline mainly occurred because more people
dropped out of the labor force. Some 347,000 Americans stopped
looking for work last month and the size of the labor force actually
shrank in 2013, a sour note in a year where the economy added a
robust 2.19 million jobs. The U.S. has created at least 2 million
jobs for three straight years, though the unemployment rate still
remains abnormally high by historical standards.
U.K. Inflation hits target for first time since 2009
U.K. inflation hit the Bank of England's 2% target for the first time
in more than than four years in December, suggesting that prices
were not bloated by robust economic recovery. Consumer prices
rose 2% YoY, the slowest since November 2009. The rate was
forecast to remain stable at 2.1%.
Source: Economic Times, Business Line, Business Standard, Times of India, DNA Money, Mint, Financial Express, Bloomberg
Top Corporate News during the week
Macro Economy & Other News
Money Weekly 17 January 2014
Aditya Birla Money LimitedCello Triumph, Unit No. 502-503 & 505 | I. B. Patel Road | of f W.E. Highway | Goregaon (East) | Mumbai - 400063 | Tel: +91 22 61802800
Page No: 3
Global Sectoral Performance
DevelopedIndex value
Index Return
TechnologyBasic
MaterialsFinancials Telecom Industrials Utilities
Oil & Gas
Health Care
Consumer Goods
% % % % % % % % %
US DOW 16417 -0.12 3.07 0.08 -0.28 1.65 0.3 ---- -1.79 1.06 -0.36
UK FTSE 6832 1.37 -0.26 6.34 1.14 0.33 2.08 -0.65 1.6 4.22 1.73
GERMANY DAX 9783 3.27 -1.67 2.39 4.59 1.67 1.71 7.04 ---- 1.09 2.61
FRANCE CAC 4333 1.94 1.42 1.88 1.93 4.81 4.67 1 0.59 0.48 3.21
JAPAN NIKKEI 15734 -1.12 -0.58 -0.1 -1.17 0.39 -0.22 -0.69 1.19 -1.22 0.72
BRIC
BRAZIL BOVESPA 49697 0.00 ---- 1 0.96 3.26 3.4 -0.36 -0.65 2.01 -0.07
RUSSIA MICEX 1495 1.73 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
INDIA NIFTY 6262 1.46 6.05 1.38 2.14 -4.26 1.41 -0.81 2.81 -1.56 1.35
CHINA SANGHAI 2005 -0.41 0.47 0.62 -0.8 -0.92 -0.21 0.63 0.83 -0.61 0.77
Asian
HONG KONG H S I 23133 1.26 5.2 -1.6 0.64 -0.25 0.39 1.28 1.07 ---- -0.9
KOREA KOSPI 1944 0.31 0.7 1.09 -1.42 -0.29 -0.02 -2.02 0.09 0.98 2.05
SINGAPORE STRAITS 3147 0.11 ---- ---- -0.35 -1.24 2.53 ---- -1.7 ---- -1.55
TAIWAN TWSE 8596 0.78 3.33 0.23 0.09 0.23 1.86 0.53 -2.22 -0.21 -0.52 Source: Bloomberg, ABML Research Note: As per Friday 16:30 hrs IST
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
18.0
20.0
22.0
24.0
26.0
Mar-07 Nov-07 Jun-08 Jan-09 Sep-09 Apr-10 Nov-10 Jul-11 Feb-12 Sep-12 Apr-13 Dec-13
1Yr Forward P/E
+2 SD
+1 SD
Mean: 15.0
-1 SD
-2 SD
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
Mar-07 Nov-07 Aug-08 Apr-09 Dec-09 Aug-10 Apr-11 Dec-11 Aug-12 Apr-13 Dec-13
1Yr Forward P/B
+2 SD
+1 SD
Mean: 2.5
-1 SD
-2 SD
Source: NSE, ABML Research
Nifty Relative Valuation Metrics (1 Year Forward)
Global Equity Indices & Sectoral Performance
Money Weekly 17 January 2014
Aditya Birla Money LimitedCello Triumph, Unit No. 502-503 & 505 | I. B. Patel Road | of f W.E. Highway | Goregaon (East) | Mumbai - 400063 | Tel: +91 22 61802800
Page No: 4
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
BrazilBOVESPA
RussiaMicex
IndiaNifty*
ChinaSHCOMP
USDowJ
Germany DAX
FranceCAC
UKFTSE
JapanNIKKEI*
Hong KongHis-
SingaporeStraits
TaiwanTWSE
PE CY12 PE CY13 EPS % Change
PE FY13* PE FY14*PE FY13* PE FY14*
Source: Bloomberg, ABML Research Note: As per Friday 16:30 hrs IST
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
BrazilBOVESPA
RussiaMicex
IndiaNifty*
ChinaSHCOMP
USDowJ
Germany DAX
FranceCAC
UKFTSE
JapanNIKKEI*
Hong KongHis-
SingaporeStraits
TaiwanTWSE
(%)
P/BV CY12 P/BV CY13 Dividend Yield CY13
PE FY13* PE FY14*PE FY13* PE FY14*
Source: Bloomberg, ABML Research Note: As per Friday 16:30 hrs IST
5%
7%
9%
11%
13%
15%
17%
19%
21%
BrazilBOVESPA
RussiaMicex
IndiaNifty*
ChinaSHCOMP
USDowJ
Germany DAX
FranceCAC
UKFTSE
JapanNIKKEI*
Hong KongHis-
SingaporeStraits
TaiwanTWSE
RoE
CY12 CY13 FY13* FY14*FY13* FY14*
Source: Bloomberg, ABML Research Note: As per Friday 16:30 hrs IST
Global Indices Forward P/BV
Global Indices RoE
Global Indices Forward P/E
Money Weekly 17 January 2014
Aditya Birla Money LimitedCello Triumph, Unit No. 502-503 & 505 | I. B. Patel Road | of f W.E. Highway | Goregaon (East) | Mumbai - 400063 | Tel: +91 22 61802800
Page No: 5
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
7.5
8.0
8.5
9.0
9.5
10.0
May
-09
Nov
-09
May
-10
Nov
-10
May
-11
Nov
-11
Jun-
12
Dec
-12
Jun-
13
Dec
-13
(%)
Government Bond Yields
GIND5YR Index GIND10YR Index
8.80
8.638.56
8.88
9.169.22
9.00
8.79
8.62 8.72
9.16
9.24
8.4
8.5
8.6
8.7
8.8
8.9
9.0
9.1
9.2
9.3
9.4
3m 6m 1Yr 5Yr 10Yr 15Yr
(%)
Monthly changed in Govt. Bond Yield Curve
9-Jan-14 9-Dec-13
Source: Bloomberg, ABML Research
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
Jan-
09
Jul-0
9
Jan-
10
Jul-1
0
Jan-
11
Jul-1
1
Dec
-11
Jun-
12
Dec
-12
Jun-
13
Dec
-13
(%)
10 Year Corp Bond Spread
10 Yr AAA Corporate Bond Yield 10 Yr Govt Bond Yield
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12Ja
n-09
Jul-0
9
Jan-
10
Jul-1
0
Jan-
11
Jun-
11
Dec
-11
Jun-
12
Dec
-12
Jun-
13
Dec
-13
(%)
5 Yr Corp Bond Spread
5 Yr AAA Corporate Bond Yield 5 Yr Govt Bond Yield
Source: Bloomberg, ABML Research
1.53.55.57.59.5
11.513.5
Jan/
09
Jul/0
9
Feb
/10
Aug
/10
Mar
/11
Sep
/11
Apr
/12
Nov
/12
May
/13
Dec
/13
(%)
Certificate of Deposit Rates
CD 3month CD 6month CD 12month
3579
111315
Feb
/09
Jul/0
9
Dec
/09
May
/10
Nov
/10
Apr
/11
Sep
/11
Mar
/12
Aug
/12
Jan/
13
Jul/1
3
Dec
/13
(%)
Commercial Paper Rates
CP 3month CP 6month CP 12 month
Source: Bloomberg, ABML Research
CD & CP Rates Movement
G-sec – AAA Corporate Bond — Spread (India)
Government Bond Yield (India)
Money Weekly 17 January 2014
Aditya Birla Money LimitedCello Triumph, Unit No. 502-503 & 505 | I. B. Patel Road | of f W.E. Highway | Goregaon (East) | Mumbai - 400063 | Tel: +91 22 61802800
Page No: 6
16
6 179
182
176
194
167
166
165 17
1
165
166
169
162
140150160170180190200
Nov
-12
Dec
-12
Jan-
13
Feb
-13
Mar
-13
Apr
-13
May
-13
Jun-
13
Jul-1
3
Aug
-13
Sep
-13
Oct
-13
Nov
-13
Index of Industrial Production
(3)
8
2 (3)
10
(14)
(0) (1)4
(4)
1 2 (4)
-1 -1
21 4
1 -3
-2
3
02
-2 -2 (6)
(3)
-
3
6
(20) (15) (10) (5) - 5
10 15
Nov
-12
Dec
-12
Jan-
13
Feb
-13
Mar
-13
Apr
-13
May
-13
Jun-
13
Jul-1
3
Aug
-13
Sep
-13
Oct
-13
Nov
-13
MoM (%) (LHS) YoY (%) (RHS)
% in Industrial Production
Source: Bloomberg, ABML Research
301
274
285
290 31
1
277
254 27
6
278
257
271 29
6
237
100
200
300
400
Nov
-12
Dec
-12
Jan-
13
Feb
-13
Mar
-13
Apr
-13
May
-13
Jun-
13
Jul-1
3
Aug
-13
Sep
-13
Oct
-13
Nov
-13
Consumer Durables Index
11
(10) (9)
4 2
7
(11) (8)
9
1
(7)
5 9
(20)
17
1
-8-1 -3
-5-10
-18
-10
-10 -8 -11-12
-21 -25-20-15-10-505101520
(25) (20) (15) (10) (5) - 5
10 15
Oct
-12
Nov
-12
Dec
-12
Jan-
13
Feb
-13
Mar
-13
Apr
-13
May
-13
Jun-
13
Jul-1
3
Aug
-13
Sep
-13
Oct
-13
Nov
-13
MoM (%) (LHS) YoY (%) (RHS)
% in Consumer Durables Index
Source: Bloomberg, ABML Research
138 17
2
176
165
168
156
144
146
144
138
143
137
141
0
50
100
150
200
Nov
-12
Dec
-12
Jan-
13
Feb
-13
Mar
-13
Apr
-13
May
-13
Jun-
13
Jul-1
3
Aug
-13
Sep
-13
Oct
-13
Nov
-13
Consumer Non Durables Index
2
24
3
(6)
1
(7)
(8)
2
(1)(4)
3
(4)
3 (2)
(0)
5 3
7
11
4 6
7 5
12
2 2
(3) - 3 6 9 12 15
(10)
-
10
20
30
Nov
-12
Dec
-12
Jan-
13
Feb
-13
Mar
-13
Apr
-13
May
-13
Jun-
13
Jul-1
3
Aug
-13
Sep
-13
Oct
-13
Nov
-13
MoM (%) (LHS) YoY (%) (RHS)
% in Consumer Non Durables Index
Source: Bloomberg, ABML Research
235 261
251 28
6 343
207
219
220 27
1
245
232
247
236
0
100
200
300
400
Nov
-12
Dec
-12
Jan-
13
Feb
-13
Mar
-13
Apr
-13
May
-13
Jun-
13
Jul-1
3
Aug
-13
Sep
-13
Oct
-13
Nov
-13
Capital Goods Index
(2)
11
(4)
14 20
(40)
6 0
24
(10) (5)6
(4)
(9)
(1)
(2)
9 10 (0)(4)
(7)
16
(2)(7)
2 0
-10
0
10
20
(45) (30) (15)
- 15 30
Nov
-12
Dec
-12
Jan-
13
Feb
-13
Mar
-13
Apr
-13
May
-13
Jun-
13
Jul-1
3
Aug
-13
Sep
-13
Oct
-13
Nov
-13
MoM (%) (LHS) YoY (%) (RHS)
% in Capital Goods Index
Source: Bloomberg, ABML Research
Capital Goods
Consumer Non Durables
Consumer Durables
Index of Industrial Production
Money Weekly 17 January 2014
Aditya Birla Money LimitedCello Triumph, Unit No. 502-503 & 505 | I. B. Patel Road | of f W.E. Highway | Goregaon (East) | Mumbai - 400063 | Tel: +91 22 61802800
Page No: 7
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8
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BPCLLT
NMDCINDUSINDBK
CIPLABHEL
INFYHDFC
HCLTECH
0
RELIANCEDRREDDY
HDFCBANK
PNBIDFC
GRASIMAMBUJACEM
RELINFRABANKBARODAPOWERGRID
ULTRACEMCOHINDALCO
M&MGAILNTPC
SBINITC
KOTAKBANKBAJAJ-AUTO
ICICIBANKHEROMOTOCO
HINDUNILVRTATAMOTORS
CAIRNONGC
(4)
MARUTITCS
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DLFTATAPOWERJPASSOCIAT
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(8) BHARTIARTL
< RANBAXY
< -20 -10 0 10 20 >
Wee
kly
Pri
ce
Ch
ang
e (
%)
Weekly % Change in Open Interest* (Futures)
Short Covering
Long Built Up
Possible Long Candidates on dips Possible Short Candidates Probable Long Candidates
Profit Booking/long Unwinding
Short Built Up
Note 1: Summation of three series of future. Note 2: Take positions with proper stop losses.
Source: NSE
Derivatives Corner
Nifty Grid — % Change in Price
Money Weekly 17 January 2014
Aditya Birla Money LimitedCello Triumph, Unit No. 502-503 & 505 | I. B. Patel Road | of f W.E. Highway | Goregaon (East) | Mumbai - 400063 | Tel: +91 22 61802800
Page No: 8
Particulars Spot Future Prem. / Disc. Futures OI PCR OI PCR VOL VIX (%)
Current 6262.00 6261.65 (0.35) 20998950 0.99 1.10 15.41
Previous 6171.00 6178.25 7.25 18991950 0.91 1.00 15.58
Change (%) 1.47 1.35 – 10.57 – – -1.09
Source: NSE
In Index Futures FIIs were Net Buyers to the tune of ` 1109 Cr
with an open interest increase of around `2136 Cr as compared
to net sellers to the tune of ` 2557 Cr with an open interest
increase of around ` 475 Cr as of the previous trading week:
Indicating Long Build Up in Index Futures by FIIs.
Nifty Futures open interest saw an increase of around 10%
and Nifty Futures saw a increase of around 1.35%:
Indicating Long Build Up in NIFTY Futures.
India VIX ended `% lower at 15.41% as compared to
15.58%: Indicating positiveness for the market.
The PCR for Nifty based on open interest has risen to 0.99
from 0.91 indicating positiveness for the market.
High put option open interest build up of around 5.5 mn
and 5.1 mn is seen at 6200 and 6100 strikes respectively:
Indicating that they will act as strong supports.
High call option open interest build up of around 5.2 mn
and 5 mn is seen at 6300 and 6400 strikes respectively:
Indicating that they will act as strong resistances.
Nifty is trading at a premium of 0 points compared to 7
points a week earlier against spot Indicating negativeness
for the market.
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
3/Ja
n
10/J
an
17/J
an
Source: NSE
1717.51818.51919.52020.52121.52222.5
6050
6100
6150
6200
6250
6300
6350
6400
1/Ja
n
3/Ja
n
7/Ja
n
9/Ja
n
13/J
an
15/J
an
17/J
an
Millions
OI Nifty Futures
Source: NSE
5800
5900
6000
6100
6200
6300
6400
0.00
0.40
0.80
1.20
1.601/
No
v
8/N
ov
14/N
ov
22/N
ov
29/N
ov
6/D
ec
13/D
ec
20/D
ec
27/D
ec
3/Ja
n
10/J
an
17/J
an
PCR – OI PCR – Vol Nifty Spot
Source: NSE
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
5800
5900
6000
6100
6200
6300
6400
6500
6600
6700
6800
Mill
ions
Put OI Call OI
Source: NSE
Nifty Premium / Discount Nifty Options OI built up (Current expiry)
Nifty Spot vs PCR
Nifty open interest vs Nifty Futures Outlook
Nifty Synopsis
Money Weekly 17 January 2014
Aditya Birla Money LimitedCello Triumph, Unit No. 502-503 & 505 | I. B. Patel Road | of f W.E. Highway | Goregaon (East) | Mumbai - 400063 | Tel: +91 22 61802800
Page No: 9
(6)(5)(4)(3)(2)(1)-1 2 3 4 5
(20)
(15)
(10)
(5)
-
5
10
15
Aut
o
Ban
kin
g
Cem
ent
FM
CG
Oil
& G
as
Met
als
Tex
tiles
IT
Tel
eco
m
Cap
ital G
oods
Ph
arm
a
Po
wer
Fin
ance
Ch
emic
als
& F
ertil
izer
s
Infr
a
Rea
l Est
ate
% Change OI % Change Price
Source: NSE
Long Build Up was seen in: BANKING, IT.
Short Build Up was seen in: FMCG, METALS, TELECOM, REAL ESTATE.
Short Covering was seen in: CEMENT, CAPITAL GOODS, AUTO, OIL & GAS.
Long Unwinding was seen in: PHARMA.
Scrip Price % Price Change % OI Change
HINDZINC 130.1 1.0 17
INFY 3730.2 4.8 15
BHARATFORG 340.2 2.0 14
MRF 19518.1 1.8 13
HDFC 840.5 4.7 12
Source: NSE
Scrip Price % Price Change % OI Change
PTC 57.60 -2.4 41
ORIENTBANK 192.95 -3.4 29
AXISBANK 1150.20 -1.3 27
ALBK 90.65 -2.8 21
IDEA 151.65 -6.3 20
Source: NSE
Scrip Price % Price Change % OI Change
APOLLOTYRE 114.20 1.5 0
HINDUNILVR 559.10 1.3 2
HEROMOTOCO 2074.95 1.6 2
GMRINFRA 23.00 4.5 3
BAJAJ-AUTO 1934.00 1.7 3
Source: NSE
Scrip Price % Price Change % OI Change
HINDZINC 130.05 1.0 17
INFY 3730.20 4.8 15
BHARATFORG 340.15 2.0 14
MRF 19518.10 1.8 13
HDFC 840.50 4.7 12
Source: NSE
OI Weekly Play
Long Unwinding
Open Interest Gainers
Open Interest Losers
Short Covering
Short BuildupLong Buildup
Sectoral Movement
Money Weekly 17 January 2014
Aditya Birla Money LimitedCello Triumph, Unit No. 502-503 & 505 | I. B. Patel Road | of f W.E. Highway | Goregaon (East) | Mumbai - 400063 | Tel: +91 22 61802800
Page No: 10
Result season kicked off to a decent start with most of the companies reporting results in line with the analyst estimates. CPI and
WPI pleasantly surprised on the positive side with both falling more than expected on back of softening food inflation. However the
week was volatile with the markets gyrating wildly. Nifty closed 90 points higher.
Next week becomes important as lot of data is due from the global markets. Eurozone comes out with Consumer Confidence
report. BoJ announces it’s Monetary Policy statement and Industrial Production is due from Japan. Market awaits Chinese
economic data including factory output and investment growth which are expected to have slowed indicating world’s 2nd largest
economy is slowing. While US and Japan move into the thick of the result season, back home Asian Paints, Ultratech, Colgate,
HDFC, L& T and Cairn are some of the companies slated to announce the quarterly results.
Economy Monday 20 Jan Tuesday 21 Jan Wednesday 22 Jan Thursday 23 Jan Friday 24 Jan
Domestic
Global Japan: Industrial
Production MoM Nov F
(Prior 0.10%)
Industrial Production
YoY Nov F (Prior
5.00%)
Machine Tool Orders
YoY Dec F (Prior
28.00%)
China: GDP YoY 4Q
(Exp 7.60%, Prior
7.80%)
GDP SA QoQ 4Q (Exp
2.00%, Prior 2.20%).
Industrial Production
YoY Dec GDP YoY 4Q
(Exp 9.80%, Prior
10.00%)
HongKong: CPI
Composite YoY Dec (Exp
4.30%, Prior 4.30%)
US: MBA Mortgage
Applications 17-Jan
(Prior 11.90%)
UK: Jobless Claims
Change Dec (Exp -
34.0K, Prior -36.7K)
Bank of England
Minutes
US: Initial Jobless Claims
18-Jan (Exp 332K, Prior
326K)
Continuing Claims 11-Jan
(Prior 3030K)
China: HSBC/Markit
Flash Mfg PMI Jan (Exp
50.5, Prior 50.5)
EURO: ECB Current
Account SA Nov (Prior
21.8B)
PMI Manufacturing Jan A
(Exp 53.0, Prior 52.7)
Consumer Confidence
Jan A (Exp -13, Prior -
13.6)
Brazil: FGV Consumer
Confidence Jan (Prior
111.5)
Source: Bloomberg
Event Calendar
Outlook
Money Weekly 17 January 2014
Aditya Birla Money LimitedCello Triumph, Unit No. 502-503 & 505 | I. B. Patel Road | of f W.E. Highway | Goregaon (East) | Mumbai - 400063 | Tel: +91 22 61802800
Page No: 11
Research Team
Vivek Mahajan Hemant Thukral
Head of Research Head – Derivatives Desk
022-61802820 022-61802870
[email protected] [email protected]
Fundamental Team Sunny Agrawal FMCG/Cement/Mid Caps 022-61802831 [email protected]
Shreyans Mehta Construction/Real Estate 022-61802829 [email protected]
Pradeep Parkar Database Analyst 022-61802839 [email protected]
Quantitative Team Sudeep Shah Technical Analyst 022-61802837 [email protected]
Advisory Support Suresh Gardas Advisory Desk 022-61802835 [email protected]
Mohan Jaiswal Executive – Research Support 022-61802838 [email protected]
ABML research is also accessible in Bloomberg at ABMR
Money Weekly 17 January 2014
Aditya Birla Money LimitedCello Triumph, Unit No. 502-503 & 505 | I. B. Patel Road | of f W.E. Highway | Goregaon (East) | Mumbai - 400063 | Tel: +91 22 61802800
Page No: 12
Disclaimer:
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