NCSX Project Overview and Management Hutch Neilson, NCSX Project Manager Princeton Plasma Physics Laboratory Oak Ridge National Laboratory Office of Science Project Review Princeton Plasma Physics Laboratory Princeton, NJ May 9, 2006 2 The NCSX Project is About 55% Complete NCSX Stellarator Major Radius 1.4 m Magnetic Field 2.0 T Pulse length ~1 s CD-4 Scope Fabricate & install stellarator. Adapt to existing technical infrastructure. Test system and make first plasma. Schedule and cost April, July, 2009 (76 months) TEC $92.4M Current status: component production and delivery are in full swing. 5 modular coil winding forms delivered. 2nd modular coil nearly completed. Vacuum vessel sectors nearing completion. TF contract awarded. Work performed through 3/06 (36 months): $46M (55% of BCWS). $8.0M in last 6 months 3 We Have Moved into Production Mode At Nov., 2005 SC Review: Fabricating first-of-a-kind components. 1st MCWF was just delivered. 1st modular coil fabrication was just starting. Were beginning to install ports on first VV segment. Now: Multiple components in process or delivered Modular coils (18) All 18 MCWF castings have been poured. (was 9 in November) 14 have completed foundry operations (was 4) 5 are in machining operations (was 2). 5 have been delivered to PPPL (was 1) 4 MCs are in production at PPPL (was 1) 1 has been completed (was zero). Vacuum vessel: all 3 segments are in advanced stages of manufacture. Manufacturing processes have been established, though refinements and learning-curve improvements continue. (projected status as of Lehman review.) 4 Component Production Progress, risk management. Budget update Management Summary. Outline Moved into production mode and retired some major risks. Project is in good financial health. Team staffed and functioning per DOE expectations & project needs. 5 MCWF Deliveries Are Now On Track: 5 Delivered Energy Industries of Ohio, Inc. Initial expectations for #2 and #3 deliveries were not met. Machining process development continued thru first 3 MCWFs - longer than expected. A contract modification was negotiated in February, as #3 was finishing up: A new delivery schedule, supported by a vendor production plan which the project reviewed and judged to be sound. A new delivery sequence (of A, B, C types) more favorable to project needs. A price increase, earned by on-schedule delivery. Vendor is performing well on the new plan. MCWF in Machining High quality is being maintained. New MCWF schedule supports project baseline, maintaining 5 months float. 6 Re-sequencing Mitigated the Impact of MCWF Schedule Stretchout Curre nt Plan New Plan Complete F.P. Sets #1-Nov., #2-Feb., 2007 #3-Aug., 2007 Old Project Schedule New Contract Schedule New Project Schedule Note: 1 Field Period (F.P.) Set = 2 As, 2 Bs, and 2 Cs. Project planning assumes a more conservative schedule than contract schedule. (Deliveries every 4.8 weeks vs. every 4 weeks.) F.P. #2 completion delayed by only 1.5 months. Compensated by slightly compressing Stage 5 field period assembly operations. F.P. #3 delay (5.5 months) was accommodated by free float. 7 First Modular Coil Was Completed on Schedule Met Level II milestone on schedule (March). Need to produce at a rate of 1 every 4.8 weeks. Not quite there yet. Typical start-up issues, e.g. new personnel, unplanned tasks. No major issues. We are regularly working two-shifts. Schedule recovery measures as needed: Saturdays, additional staff, optional 3rd winding station. Process developed on twisted racetrack R&D coil is working well in production. Experienced TRC techs. formed the nucleus of the expanded production crew. Achieving required tolerance (0.020 in.) on current center position. Twisted Racetrack Coil L. Dudek J. Chrzanowski. Completed Coil 8 MC Production Costs Are Running Above Estimates, But Coming Down Costs are being tracked in detail and reviewed weekly by management. Used to target areas for improvement. Estimates have increased, driven by: Unplanned tasks (e.g., re-work of procured parts, tooling issues.) Some planned tasks are taking longer than expected. Favorable trends are due to: Process improvements. Crew gaining experience. Multiple coils in production (volume efficiencies.) Cost trends for process steps that have been completed on all 4 coils new estimate 9 All 3 VVSAs are in advanced production #1Vacuum tested, fabrication complete. Ports crated for shipment. Segment is in final inspection #2Port installation complete. Preparing for vacuum test. #3Port installation in progress. Delivery schedule supports project baseline. Process issues have been resolved. New completion schedule is supported by a sound vendor production plan. Forecast: #1: May. #2: July. #3: August. VVSA fabrication is 9 months off the project critical path. High quality is being maintained. Vacuum Vessel Manufacture is Nearing Completion Major Tool and Machine, Inc. M. Viola VVSA #1 VVSA #2 10 TF Contract Has Been Awarded XYZ Company November Review: cost risks >$1M reported. Wedge casting quotes Estimates for in-house winding and assembly. Now: cost risks retired with fixed-price contract Conducted intensive field investigation of potential suppliers, including visits to ASIPP (China) and ETI by PPPL delegation. Findings: Schedule and quality requirements can be met. Wedge support costs can be reduced. Suppliers can produced complete assemblies. Awarded contract following competitive source selection process. Delivery schedule (#1: Dec. 06. #18: Sep. 07) is 7 months off the critical path. TF Coil Subassembly coil wedge supports 11 Work plans and ETCs have been updated to support forward planning. Contingency request is minimized Cover variances on completed work, estimate growth for near-term work (at least next 6 months) and for fixed-price contracts. For longer-term estimate growth: identify as risk. Keep budget in contingency while continuing working to reduce costs. Review again in 6 months. Reduce work in ancillary systems to maintain sufficient contingency to manage remaining risks and meet CD-4 requirements. $824k request leaves $7,804 contingency (21.4% of remaining work). We have successfully managed project risks with contingency percentage at about this level since CD-2, while. Project is in Good Financial Health 12 Budget Needs for Stellarator Core Estimate Growth Risks FY-07 modular coil winding ops: $507k. Continue to push costs down via learning curve and improvements. Re-assess in 6 months. Additional MCWF payments, if vendor earns full incentive: $410k. Earned if vendor meet the contract schedule, but could be offset by completing project by ~2 months, saving carrying costs. 13 Work Reductions to Offset Cost Growth These are tough measures, but vital to projects overall financial health. We can meet CD-4 performance requirements with the reduced scope. Sam Barish: Address the impact on research program, esp. 09. Wants to see this slide. 14 At 21.4%, Contingency Remains in its Historical Range Cost risks identified at CD-2 have been successfully managed at this level. Costs of largest procured components (MCWF, VVSA, TF) are now known. Modular coil winding cost trends are favorable, uncertainties have narrowed. All R&D is complete. Title II Design is >75% completed. The main outstanding risks field period and machine assembly are significant but no worse than than those we have successfully managed. Nov. Review May Review 15 Contingency is Supported By Updated Risk Assessment Cost reduction opportunities continue to be explored Simpler cryostat? $350k. Fabricate PF coils at ASIPP (China)? ~$375K Accelerate completion up to 2 months via 2-shift assembly operations? (Reduces carrying costs.) ~$400k Schedule contingency maintained at 5 months since CD-2. 16 Initiated vendor re-planning action to arrest MCWF schedule slippage. Delivery rates have improved. Risk substantially reduced. Initiated TF acquisition re-planning to reduce >$1M cost risks. Changed from make to buy, based on focused vendor research. Fixed-price contract (almost) awarded. Risk substantially reduced. We are improving performance in coil winding operations. Coil-by-coil costs tracked to target areas for improvement. Operations are tightly managed to optimize cost and schedule. Cost trends are favorable. Uncertainties narrowed. More improvement expected. Meeting NCSX production needs is a management priority for all groups. Manufacturing operations, drawings, response to vendor issues, procurement. Strongly supported by PPPL and ORNL management. Significant risks have been reduced or retired. Cost and Schedule Risks Are Aggressively Managed: Highlights from Last 6 Months 17 We Are Staffed and Functioning per Project Needs Continuity of Engineering Leadership Key NCSX engineers (e.g., Brad Nelson, possibly Phil Heitzenroeder) expect to have growing ITER responsibilities. Transition plan: as ITER needs ramp up, transfer NCSX duties to other NCSX- supported engineers: Stellarator Design Leadership: Brad Mike Cole, Wayne Reiersen, Brad. MCWF Contract Management: Phil Larry Dudek, Phil. Working with ITER project office to ensure that both projects needs are met. The IPT is fully involved in risk management Excellent communication via multiple forums Watch List (monthly), IPT meetings (monthly), special briefings (by request). Critical activities status (MC, MCWF, VVSA) updated and briefed weekly. Cost performance reports and corrective measures reviewed monthly. Management reserve plans reviewed monthly. Critical issues status reviewed at IPT meetings. FPD approves contingency transfers. 18 Safety is Integrated into NCSX Work at All Levels All staff (including ORNL) take Hazard Awareness Training to improve understanding of NCSX hazards. Safety is addressed in design process and influences choices. Stage 1 Field Period Assembly. Manufacturing Project Hazard Analysis was updated to include Field Period Assembly operations. Approved by PPPL Safety Review Committee. Lab Activity Certification Committee (ACC) reviews facilities and operations. NCSX worker accident (cut hand- non-DART case) was followed up with work group discussions and Lab procedure changes. Safety, cost, and schedule goals are synergistic. Work is done according to documented plans and procedures. Project organized for strong safety management, with safety, cost, and schedule responsibilities aligned. Line management is responsible for safety. Supported by ES&H professionals. 19 The Mix of Activities Will Change in the Next 6 Months Activities Wrapping Up VVSA fabrication VV details and MC winding pack design Activities Continuing MCWF: Complete foundry ops. Deliver 4 more to PPPL. Modular Coil fabrication: Complete 4 more. Activities Starting TF Coil fabrication. Field Period Assembly: Stage 1 (Vacuum Vessel prep) MC interfaces and coil services design. 20 We Will Complete the Project by July, MCWFs delivered in FY Coil winding in FY F.P. Assy in FY Final assembly & testing FY First Plasma July, 5 mos. schedule contingency. R. Strykowsky Hutch Neilson: Update Hutch Neilson: Update 21 Summary of Charge Issues The Project is Making Excellent Progress in Component Production 1.MCWF and VVSA procurements support the project baseline. 2.Risk assessment and management mechanisms are working. Some major issues were successfully addressed since last SC review. 3.Cost of in-house activities is tightly managed. Strong support from PPPL Engineering Dept. (fab. activities) and ORNL Fusion Energy Division (design activities). 4.Cost and schedule estimates have been updated based on design maturity and experience. Tough actions taken to maintain contingency. Contingencies are supported by risk analyses. 5.The Project is staffed and functioning at all levels in accordance with the PEP and DOE requirements (O413.3). 22 Initiated vendor re-planning action to arrest MCWF schedule slippage. Strong support from Directors Office, Business Operations, Princeton University. Credible contract schedule established. Delivery rates have improved. Risk substantially reduced. Initiated TF acquisition re-planning to reduce >$1M cost risks. Changed from make to buy, based on focused vendor research. Strong Procurement Div. support led to source selection in record time. Fixed-price contract (almost) awarded. Risk substantially reduced. We are improving performance in coil winding operations. Dedicated weekly meetings of Project Management and Engineering Dept. Head. Coil-by-coil costs tracked to target areas for improvement. Shift work, overtime, staffing, training, crew organization are tightly managed to optimize cost and schedule. Cost trends are favorable. Uncertainties narrowed. More improvement expected. We meeting NCSX production needs by making it a management priority. Weekly meetings (Engineering Mgr., WBS Mgrs.) on Field Period Assembly readiness: drawings, parts procurements, procedures, fixtures, safety reviews. Design team priorities support production: Rapid response to manufacturing issues from vendors or Lab team. Drawing priorities driven by production schedule needs. Procurement Division provides priority service, including expedited action when neecessary. Significant risks have been reduced or retired. Cost and Schedule Risks Are Aggressively Managed: Highlights from Last 6 Months 23 Contingency vs Costs Drawdown trends look more consistent When plotted vs dollars instead of time.