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New consciousness:A societal and energetic vision forrebalancing humankind within thelimits of planet earth

Prof Christian Breyer, Prof Sirkka Heinonen,and Project Researcher Juho Ruotsalainen

Lappeenranta University of Technology LUTFinland Futures Research Centre FFRC/UTU

Futures Studies Tackling Wicked ProblemsFinland Futures Research Centre 12.6.2015 Turku

Session 11. Toward a Futures Movement: Research collaboration on climate change as anopportunity to build a futures consciousness for global sustainability

1. Climate Change as a Wicked Problem for Futures Studies

2. Age of Crises – energy, Limits to Growth, planetaryboundaries and the idea of progress

3. Neo-Growth as a Solution

4. New Consciousness– Transformative Scenario of a Neo-Growth World

5. Conclusions

Structure of Our Presentation

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Futures StudiesTacklingWicked Problems

• Global wicked problems – such as the climate change –require long time horizons & solutions built on strongvisions in order to be tackled

• FS increasingly focuses on such issues, as exemplifiedin the 15 global challenges identified by the MillenniumProject + Club of Rome + EU Grand Challenges

• Our work combines foresight of societal change andenergy prospectives (qualitative&quantitative)

§ 2050: zero emission energysystem has to be in place if globalwarming is limited to +2°C.

§ 2030: only emission freetechnologies can be taken in use.

§ 2015: solar and wind become theleast cost options in large part ofthe World.

WHY?

/ A COMPLETELYNEW RENEWABLEENERGY SYSTEM

WHERE ENERGY ISEMISSION-FREE,COST-EFFECTIVE

AND INDEPENDENT.

NEO-CARBON ENERGY is one of the Tekes strategicresearch openings and the project is carried out incooperation with Technical Research Centre of FinlandVTT Ltd, Lappeenranta University of Technology LUTand University of Turku, Finland Futures ResearchCentre FFRC.

Neo-Carbon Energy Project studiesa) a 100 % renewable energy

system of solar, wind andstorage, and

b) the social societal implication ofthe new energy system

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2. The Age of CrisisBuilt on the Myth of Progress

The modern era(ca. 18th century to late20th century) wasfundamentally based onthe idea of progress:human reason wouldlead to a better world:-> more prosperous and withincreasing liberty

The Myth ofProgress

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1) Societies progress when individuals are given the freedom tofollow their inherent rationality. Authorities, such as religious,questioned.

2) Accumulation of knowledge through rational sciences

3) Democracy as a rational form of governance – nation states andrepresentative democracy

4) Material prosperity through natural sciences technology andindustrial production

Modern Progress in Four Theses

• has led to unprecedented prosperity and standards of living – notevenly distributed, caused env. crisis

• Emphasis on individuality hinders cooperation between individuals

• Narrowed growth down to mere economic growth.

• Energy needed for progress – but how to accommodate 10 billionwithin planetary boundaries?

• Emphasis on rationality and scientificity undermined other areas ofcognition – such as artistic creativity

• Emphasis on representative democracy dismissed other forms ofdemocracy – such as direct democracy

Modern Progress - shortcomings

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Crises in a Nutshell

source:Wackernagel,2010; WWF, 2014

Historic Collapse Pattern (Jared Diamond)• Over Exploitation of Resources• Climate Change Impact• Non Adaptive Social Behaviour• Military Conflicts• Structural Change in Trade Routes

our performance isexcellent, unfortunatelyunder the wrong sign

decarbonisedpower systems are

desperately needed

2. Neo-Growth as a Solution

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a concept developed by Prof Pentti Malaska(a word play on degrowth)

unlike degrowth, neo-growth does not rejectgrowth but emphasises its positiveconnotations

1) environmentally sustainable2) merges economic growth with cultural, socialand ”spiritual” growth

-> an attempt to re-establish aholistic vision of growth.

Neo-Growth

• Work and modes of production redefined to promote self-expression and collaboration: prosumerism, pro-amateur, peer-to-peer etc.

-> Work would not be separate from other fields of life anymore

• ICTs used to enhance immaterial production and interaction,instead of industrial processes

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• Social relations combine individualismand collectivism (”indocollectivism” Dator)

• Politics should be global

• Technology must be planetary(takes into account planetary boundaries, based onrecycling, cradle-to-cradle, biomimicry)

4. New Consciousness –Transformative Scenario of aNeo-Growth World

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©Jim Dator

Discipline

Neo-Carbon Energy Project

Transformative Energy Futures 2050(all transformative!

all based on renewable energy!)

Neo-Carbon EnablingNeo-Growth Society

Neo-Growth -> What kind of growth we want?Neo-Carbon -> How carbon emissions can be reducesdand used as a resource?Third Industrial RevolutionProsumerismPeer-to-peer society

© Sirkka Heinonen

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• The main objective of the foresight part is to study possiblesocio-economic futures related to neo-carbon energysystem.

• What kinds of societal – economic, cultural, political andlifestyles-related – changes does the neo-carbon energysystem promote and enable?

• Emphasis on citizen-perspectives andpreferred transformational futures

• To be linked with quantified energy data

1) Radical Startups

2) Value-Driven “Techemoths”

3) Green DIY Engineers

4) New Consciousness

Neo-Carbon Scenarios

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New Consciousness =the Most Radical of the Four Scenarios

• The ecological crisis:warming climate + species extinctions

• “World War III”:escalated numerous small conflicts of “hybrid warfare”

• Ubiquitous ICTs: people are connected to the internetpractically all their waking hours.

Virtual and physical have become inseparable.

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• It was understood that environmental and social problems were sohuge that partial, practical and technological solutions werenowhere enough to solve them.

• Humans’ relationship to nature, to each other and to themselveshad to be completely rethought (-> values of deep ecology as the norm)

• People do not conceive themselves as separate individuals, butdeeply intertwined with other humans and as parts of nature.

• The change was facilitated by all-encompassing digital networks.

New Consciousness

Long-term energy demand?The results of some recent studies might help …

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Focus on 2050 and solar PV

• total primary energy demand (TPED) seems to be highly disputed• all reports acknowledge significant relevance of PV (≥ 5 TW)• BUT, the variation in results (input) is high, despite of progressive/ RE-based scenarios• closer view to the key numbers might provide a valuable guideline

conservative in heat and mobility sector

Fundamental view on Energy• 10 billion people (stabilized) requiring per

capita energy on today’s European level• living standards converged• energy mainly based on electricity due to

efficiency and cost reasons• local-global energy system – globally

interconnected but locally structured• major sources of energy are wind and solar

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Fundamental view on Energy

Electricity generation 2012: 22700 TWhe

Energy demand 2012: 164600 TWhth

Focus on solar PVAbbreviations:TPED: Total Primary Energy DemandWEO: World Energy OutlookLCOE: levelized cost of energy

Questions:Q1: Do we have enough resources?Q2: If solar PV is 25-40%, what’s the

rest?Q3: If long-term LCOE of PV are 10-15

€/MWhe, what are today’s cost ofPV, wind, coal and nuclear?

Q4: What are the key resources andkey technologies to run such anenergy system?

Q5: How radical is such an energyworld?

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Unit: terawatt years

Source: Perez R. and Perez M., 2009. A fundamental look at energy reserves for theplanet. The IEA SHC Solar Update, Volume 50

Q1: Enough Resources?Q2: What’s the rest?

Q1: Yes.Q2: mainly wind energy

(~40%), plus somegeothermal, biomass,hydropower and oceanenergy (~5%, each)

Q3: Today’s cost?

• PV-Wind-Gas is the least cost option• nuclear and coal-CCS is very expensive• nuclear and coal-CCS are risky technologies• nuclear economics will become worse due to negative learning curve

source:Agora Energiewende, 2014. Comparing the Cost of Low-Carbon Technologies: What is the Cheapest option;Grubler A., 2010. The costs of the Frenchnuclearscale-up: Acase of negative learning by doing, Energy Policy, 38, 5174

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Q3: Today’s cost … subsidies

• Societal extra costs of coal in China are about 150 $/MWhe (key reason for shift to windand solar PV in China)

• Societal subsidies in Germany are about 100 $/MWhe (more than total costs of wind andplus costs for coal fuel and plant more than solar PV – TODAY)

• LCOE of solar PV (today down to 50 €/MWhe, long-term 10-20 €/MWhe) and wind (today,down to 40 €/MWhe, long-term 30 €/MWhe) are the least societal cost option

Q4: Key Resources/ Technologies

Key Resources• Mental resource: Willingness-to-survive• Energy resources: sun and wind• Material resources: sand, bauxit, copper, iron, lithium, air (CO2), water

Key Technologies• Generation: solar PV, wind turbines• Storage: batteries based on Li, NaS, etc.• Briding: power-to-CxHy, power-to-water, power-to-heat, electric vehicles

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Q5: How radical is such a world?Technology:• today available, no major breakthrough needed, evolutionary further development

and cost reduction• finally, rather simpleEconomics:• least-cost solution, today and in future

Politics:• complete change of mind-set, dramatic change in policy execution (under

constraints of fierce lobbyism and corruption)• very difficultIndividuals:• distributed technologies allow individual front-running• high level of responsibility needed and long-term optimization• modern energy technologies allow sustainability AND high standards of living

Conclusions

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• Global world with no nation states

• Local - Global energy system, based on solar and wind

• Least societal cost requiring high management skills

• Access over ownership, transparency over privacy,and collaborative co-creation over competition

• Even distribution of wealth, everything is connected(e.g. through advanced virtual technologies)

Is this a preferred future?

A WORLDELECTRIFIED

BY SOLARAND WIND

KIITOS!See a video on Neo-Carbon Energy Projecthttps://youtu.be/Ww76jNrVHhw

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REFERENCESAgora Energiewende (2014). Comparing the Cost of Low-Carbon Technologies: What is theCheapest Option?, study prepared by Prognos AG on behalf of Agora Energiewende, Berlin,April, www.agora-energiewende.org/topics/optimisation-of-the-overall-system/detail-view/article/klimaschutz-wird-mit-erneuerbaren-deutlich-preiswerter-als-mit-atomkraft/

Breyer, Christian, (2011). The Photovoltaic Reality Ahead: Terawatt Scale Market PotentialPowered by Pico to Gigawatt PV Systems and Enabled by High Learning and Growth Rates, 26thEU PVSEC, Hamburg, September 5-9, DOI: 10.4229/26thEUPVSEC2011-6EP.1.2,www.researchgate.net/publication/261172913_The_Photovoltaic_Reality_Ahead_Terawatt_Scale_Market_Potential_Powered_by_Pico_to_Gigawatt_PV_Systems_and_Enabled_by_High_Learning_and_Growth_Rates

Dator, Jim (2012). Dream Society? Ubiquitous Society? No Society? Summer Seminar by theFinnish Society for Futures Studies. Otava.

Diamond, Jared (2011). Collapse: How Societies Choose to Fail or Succeed. Penguin Books

Grubler A. (2010). The cost of the French nuclear scale-up: A case of negative learning by doing,Energy Policy, 38, 5174–5188

Heinonen, Sirkka (2014). What is Futures Reseach and Scenario Thinking? Lecture atUniversity of Buenos Aires (UBA), Departamento de Computación 18th November 2014.During the Secondment at FLACSO and CIECTI, Buenos Aires (November 2014). 50 ppt slides.www.youtube.com/watch?v=cY4NGAfdhJU

Heinonen, Sirkka, Ruotsalainen, Juho & Karjalainen, Joni (2015). Transformative Neo-CarbonEnergy Scenarios. Finland Futures Research Centre/University of Turku (forthcoming).

Heinonen, Sirkka & Ruotsalainen, Juho (2014). Toward Ubiquitous Learning.www.ael.fi/sites/default/files/files/ael_futuriikki_eng_10-2014_final_net.pdf

[IMF] – International Monetary Fund (2015). How Large Are Global Energy Subsidies?,Washington, www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2015/wp15105.pdf

Malaska, Pentti (2010). A More Innovative Direction Has Been Ignored. In: UnderstandingNeogrowth - An Invitation to Sustainable Productivity. TeliaSonera Finland Plc. Helsinki, p. 200-210.www.sonera.fi/media/13069ab55806de22e8955bc2a3f1afeab17b28bd/Understanding_Neogrowth.pdf

[WWF] – World Wild Fund for Nature International (2014). Living Planet Report 2014: Speciesand spaces, people and places. WWF, Zoological Society of London and Global FootprintNetwork, Gland,http://wwf.panda.org/about_our_earth/all_publications/living_planet_report/