New President ObamaNew President ObamaWhat’s Next?What’s Next?

Paul FreedenbergAMT Vice President – Government Relations

Pat McGibbonAMT Vice President – Strategic Information & Research

Key Players in the Obama Administration

President

Chief ofStaff

Secretary ofTreasury

BarackObama

RahmEmanuel

TimothyGeithner

Secretary ofHealth and

HumanServices

TomDaschle

VicePresident

Secretaryof State

Secretary ofDefense

JoeBiden

HillaryRodhamClinton

RobertGates

Secretary ofCommerce

United StatesTrade

Representative

RonKirk

???

2AMT 2009 Regional Meetings

The 111th CongressHouse

255D – 177R

Speaker

MinorityLeader

ChairmanWays &Means

Nancy Pelosi(D-CA)

John Boehner(R-OH)

Charles Rangel(D-NY)

Senate58D – 41R

Close to a Filibuster Proof Majority!

MajorityLeader

GOPLeader

ChairmanFinance

Harry Reid(D-NV)

Mitch McConnell(R-KY)

Max Baucus(D-MT)

3AMT 2009 Regional Meetings

Economic Stimulus Legislation

• Could approach $1.3 trillion

• About 2/3 of that amount will be spending programs:• Infrastructure• Aid to states• Energy

• About 1/3 will be tax cuts

4AMT 2009 Regional Meetings

Key tax changes discussed byPresident-Elect Obama

• Temporary Business Tax Incentives – LikelySection 179 Small Business Expensing50% Bonus Depreciation

• Corporate Tax Rate – Possible – Lower rate from 35% to 28%

• Individual Federal Income Tax Rates – Possible – Raise top two rates – 33% would increase to 36% and 35% up to 39.6%

• Capital Gains Rates – Possible – Increase rate to 20% from 15%

• Federal Death Tax – Likely – Freeze rate at 2009 level – 45%, with a $3.5 Million exemption per spouse – Rate freeze avoids complete repeal of tax in 2010

5AMT 2009 Regional Meetings

Key tax changes discussed byPresident-Elect Obama

• R&D Tax Credit – Possible – Make it permanentExtended in 2008, but expires at the end of 2009. Congress has continually renewed this credit. Obama intends to make it permanent.

• Advanced Technology Vehicles Purchase Incentive – Likely

• Job Creation Tax Credit – Possible

• Eliminate income tax on low/medium income seniors – Likely

• Healthcare mandate – Possible

• Windfall Profit Tax on energy companies – Possible

6AMT 2009 Regional Meetings

Federal Assistance for the Auto Industry

• Rescue legislation failed in Congress

• President announced $17.4 billion to automakers from TARP• Immediate $13.4 billion in short-term loans issued• Additional $4 billion disbursed in February• Car companies must prove long-term business plan

viability by 3/31/09 or pay back loans immediately (certain bankruptcy)

7AMT 2009 Regional Meetings

Federal Assistance for the Auto Industry

• Treasury will decide on case-by-case basis whether companies connected to auto industry should receive emergency aid from bailout pool• Will consider “the importance of the institution to production

by, or financing of, the American automotive industry,” and whether a major disruption of the companies’ operations would likely hurt employment and the national economy

• President-Elect Obama may propose additional support which should include stakeholders throughout the auto industry supply chain

8AMT 2009 Regional Meetings

Federal ManufacturingTechnology Policy

• Bright spot in 2009

• Traditionally, Democrats more willing to fund government R&D programs

• Obama supports doubling MEP funding and adequate resources for TIP (formerly ATP)

• Obama proposes new programs to promote development of “Green” technologies

• AMT will continue to assist members in obtaining federal grants for specific R&D projects

9AMT 2009 Regional Meetings

Employee Healthcare Costs

• Members’ annual costs for employee health care coverage increased roughly 7%

• AMT will be playing defense on proposals to increase mandates on employers

• Obama proposes a “play or pay” mandate

• Unclear how quickly the new President and Congress will move on broad legislation

10AMT 2009 Regional Meetings

“Card Check” UnionOrganizing Legislation

• Favored by unions seeking to reverse flagging membership

• Would replace current secret ballot system

• Employer might not even know of vote until after the fact

• Bill could add an additional 60 million unionized U.S. jobs

• Passed the House: business community helped defeat in Senate in ‘08

• Will pass the House in 09; Senate will determine bill’s fate

• Obama supports and has pledged to sign bill

• AMT is part of the Coalition for a Democratic Workplace

11AMT 2009 Regional Meetings

MACHINE TOOLPAC

• Raised $83,400 in 2007-08 election cycle

• Distributed $68,500 to pro-manufacturing candidates

• We need your approval!• Granting approval DOES NOT require you to contribute• Companies giving approval receive a U.S. House Mace

letter opener as our gift

• You can sign, give approval and contribute online: www.AMTonline.org/TOOLPAC

12AMT 2009 Regional Meetings

Highlights of AMT’s Legislative Activities to Date

• Successfully lobbied for Bonus Depreciation/Sec. 179 in the 2008 Economic Stimulus Package – continuing effort to extend provisions in 2009 Stimulus

• Lobbied for inclusion of all tiers of the automotive supply chain in restructuring plans

• Helped defeat “Card Check” Legislation in 2008 – Continuing to lobby in opposition in 2009

• Continuing to promote AMT Government Relations priorities to members of the 111th Congress through emails, press releases, direct lobbying, grassroots, etc.

13AMT 2009 Regional Meetings

What does the CHANGE meanto your business?

• Stimulus package

• TARP

• Longer term• Tax Changes• Labor • Green

14AMT 2009 Regional Meetings

What will be the impact?

• Cabinet Changes

15AMT 2009 Regional Meetings

Key Players in the Obama Administration

President

Chief ofStaff

Secretary ofTreasury

BarackObama

RahmEmanuel

TimothyGeithner

Secretary ofHealth and

HumanServices

TomDaschle

VicePresident

Secretaryof State

Secretary ofDefense

JoeBiden

HillaryRodhamClinton

RobertGates

Secretary ofCommerce

United StatesTrade

Representative

RonKirk

???

16AMT 2009 Regional Meetings

USTR

• Xavier Becerra refusal

• Second Choice – Ron Kirk• Mayor• Lawyer

17AMT 2009 Regional Meetings

Export Controls

• Defense• Michèle Flournoy • Shift Change

• State • Larger role

18AMT 2009 Regional Meetings

What’s Likely

• Exports Controls• Defense easier• Tougher State ( Human Rights)

• Trade Progress slowed• More about getting out of deals than new

ones• Protectionist leanings

19AMT 2009 Regional Meetings

Test

20AMT 2009 Regional Meetings

Good Stuff• Energy – A Green Administration

• Wind Power• Nuclear• Alternative fuels

• Medical Equipment

• Off Highway

• Aerospace (another 18 months)

• Marginal Mfg21AMT 2009 Regional Meetings

22AMT 2009 Regional Meetings