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COMPANY FOCUS PT Trimegah Securities Tbk - www.trimegah.com 1 Initiating coverage with a Buy We initiate our first financing sector stock coverage with a Buy amidst the industry tough times. We view that BFIN is highly undervalued de- spite it is expected to deliver ~16% ROE in 2015-17F. Moreover, the stock also offers attractive dividend yield, and some defensive qualities. Using Gordon Growth Methodology (GGM), we estimate BFIN’s target price of Rp3,550 under the conservative assumptions of 15.8% sustain- able ROE, 4.8% long-term growth rate, and 12.8% cost of equity (7.75% risk-free rate). The TP implies 1.4x 2015/16F PBV and it cur- rently trades cheaply at 1.0x 2015F PBV. Attractive dividend yield In the past 2 years, BFIN has given back to shareholders. The company even distributed more dividends with 49.9% payout ratio for FY14 earn- ings this year. From our latest discussion with the management, the company is expected to continue giving back to shareholders and deliver ~8-9% dividend yield in the following years. At the current share price, our calculation suggest 8.9% 2016F dividend yield (assuming 35/25% payout ratio for 2015F final earnings/2016F interim earnings), which is higher than current 10-year Indonesian government bond yield. Has some defensive qualities: Much lower cost of credit than its closest listed competitor, ADMF. Historically lower write-offs rate compared to most of its listed peers. Relatively more stable business growth compared to most of its listed peers. All these defensive attributes lead BFIN’s historical earnings to be less volatile than most of its listed peers. Increasing exposure toward used passenger 4W a positive The company’s plan to increase used passenger 4W is a good strategy given the rising price of new LCGC. Given the current economic down cycle, customers are expected to rather buy used 4W. This is also sup- ported by our on-the-ground channel checks, which reveals the demand for used passenger 4W is still higher than new ones. PT BFI Finance Indonesia provides finan- cial services such as leasing, consumer financing, and factoring. The company is based in Tangerang, West Java. Share Price Rp2,550 Sector Financing Price Target Rp3,550 (39%) Year end Dec 2013 2014 2015F 2016F 2017F Net Profit (Rpbn) 509 594 635 674 721 EPS (Rp) 333 385 411 437 467 EPS Growth (%) 3.4 15.6 6.9 6.2 6.9 DPS (Rp) 0 264 226 217 231 BVPS (Rp) 2,224 2,341 2,548 2,767 3,003 P/E (x) 7.7 6.6 6.2 5.8 5.5 P/BV (x) 1.1 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.8 ROE (%) 15.0 16.4 16.1 15.8 15.6 Div Yield (%) 0.0 10.3 8.9 8.5 9.1 BFI Finance Company Focus BUY Rp3,550 Reuters Code BFIN.JK Bloomberg Code BFIN.IJ Issued Shares 1,566 Mkt Cap. (Rpbn) 3,993 Avg. Value Daily 6 Month (Rpbn) 0.5 52-Wk range 2,800 / 2,000 Trinugraha Capital & CO SCA 43.7% Public 56.3% EPS 15F 16F Consensus (Rp) 398 475 TRIM vs Cons. (%) 3.3 (8.0) Undervalued and Proven to Be Resilient Company Update Stock Data Major Shareholders Consensus Stock Price Company Data August 14, 2015 Angga Aditya Assaf ([email protected]) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 - 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 Aug-14 Oct-14 Dec-14 Feb-15 Apr-15 Jun-15 Aug-15 (Rpbn) Avg. 5 Day MA Trading Value (RHS) Price (LHS)

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Page 1: New PT Trimegah Sekuritas Indonesia Tbk | - August 14, 2015 BFI … · 2019. 11. 4. · PT Trimegah Securities Tbk - COMPANY FOCUS 6 COMPANY ANALYSIS Brief Corporate Profile BFI Finance

COMPANY FOCUS PT Trimegah Securities Tbk - www.trimegah.com 1

Initiating coverage with a Buy

We initiate our first financing sector stock coverage with a Buy amidst

the industry tough times. We view that BFIN is highly undervalued de-

spite it is expected to deliver ~16% ROE in 2015-17F. Moreover, the

stock also offers attractive dividend yield, and some defensive qualities.

Using Gordon Growth Methodology (GGM), we estimate BFIN’s target

price of Rp3,550 under the conservative assumptions of 15.8% sustain-

able ROE, 4.8% long-term growth rate, and 12.8% cost of equity

(7.75% risk-free rate). The TP implies 1.4x 2015/16F PBV and it cur-

rently trades cheaply at 1.0x 2015F PBV.

Attractive dividend yield

In the past 2 years, BFIN has given back to shareholders. The company

even distributed more dividends with 49.9% payout ratio for FY14 earn-

ings this year. From our latest discussion with the management, the

company is expected to continue giving back to shareholders and deliver

~8-9% dividend yield in the following years. At the current share price,

our calculation suggest 8.9% 2016F dividend yield (assuming 35/25%

payout ratio for 2015F final earnings/2016F interim earnings), which is

higher than current 10-year Indonesian government bond yield.

Has some defensive qualities:

• Much lower cost of credit than its closest listed competitor, ADMF.

• Historically lower write-offs rate compared to most of its listed

peers.

• Relatively more stable business growth compared to most of its

listed peers.

All these defensive attributes lead BFIN’s historical earnings to be less

volatile than most of its listed peers.

Increasing exposure toward used passenger 4W a positive

The company’s plan to increase used passenger 4W is a good strategy

given the rising price of new LCGC. Given the current economic down

cycle, customers are expected to rather buy used 4W. This is also sup-

ported by our on-the-ground channel checks, which reveals the demand

for used passenger 4W is still higher than new ones.

PT BFI Finance Indonesia provides finan-cial services such as leasing, consumer financing, and factoring. The company is based in Tangerang, West Java.

Share Price Rp2,550

Sector Financing

Price Target Rp3,550 (39%)

Year end Dec 2013 2014 2015F 2016F 2017F

Net Profit (Rpbn) 509 594 635 674 721

EPS (Rp) 333 385 411 437 467

EPS Growth (%) 3.4 15.6 6.9 6.2 6.9

DPS (Rp) 0 264 226 217 231

BVPS (Rp) 2,224 2,341 2,548 2,767 3,003

P/E (x) 7.7 6.6 6.2 5.8 5.5

P/BV (x) 1.1 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.8

ROE (%) 15.0 16.4 16.1 15.8 15.6

Div Yield (%) 0.0 10.3 8.9 8.5 9.1

BFI Finance Company Focus

BUY Rp3,550

Reuters Code BFIN.JK

Bloomberg Code BFIN.IJ

Issued Shares 1,566

Mkt Cap. (Rpbn) 3,993

Avg. Value Daily 6 Month (Rpbn)

0.5

52-Wk range 2,800 / 2,000

Trinugraha Capital & CO SCA 43.7%

Public 56.3%

EPS 15F 16F

Consensus (Rp) 398 475

TRIM vs Cons. (%) 3.3 (8.0)

Undervalued and Proven to Be Resilient

Company Update

Stock Data

Major Shareholders

Consensus

Stock Price

Company Data

August 14, 2015

Angga Aditya Assaf

([email protected])

0.0

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500

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2,500

3,000

Aug-14 Oct-14 Dec-14 Feb-15 Apr-15 Jun-15 Aug-15

(Rpbn)Avg. 5 Day MA Trading Value (RHS) Price (LHS)

Page 2: New PT Trimegah Sekuritas Indonesia Tbk | - August 14, 2015 BFI … · 2019. 11. 4. · PT Trimegah Securities Tbk - COMPANY FOCUS 6 COMPANY ANALYSIS Brief Corporate Profile BFI Finance

PT Trimegah Securities Tbk - www.trimegah.com COMPANY FOCUS 2

Source: OJK, Trimegah Research

INDONESIAN FINANCING INDUSTRY ANALYSIS

Expect slowdown to continue this year

Data from Financial Services Authority (OJK) shows that Indonesian financing industry is facing a slowdown this

year. In addition, automotive sales growth is also contracting. Our finding also suggest that automotive sales

growth closely correlates with GDP growth. We still expect the slowdown to continue this year given the delay of

the government infrastructure projects, weak purchasing power due to higher inflation, and less appetite of the

financiers in providing additional financing due to threat of rising bad loans.

Figure 1. Financing Industry Assets Breakdown (in Rp bn)

Source: OJK, Trimegah Research

Figure 2. Financing industry growth (YoY)

-

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

Jan-1

4

Feb-1

4

Mar-

14

Apr-

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May-1

4

Jun-1

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Jul-14

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Sep-1

4

Oct-

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Nov-1

4

Dec-

14

Jan-1

5

Feb-1

5

Mar-

15

Apr-

15

Consumer Financing Credit Card Factoring Financial Lease

-10.0%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

200

9

201

0

201

1

201

2

201

3

Jan

-14

Feb-14

Mar-1

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r-1

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Au

g-1

4

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Oct-

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Nov-1

4

Dec-1

4

Jan

-15

Feb-15

Mar-1

5

Total Financing Consumer Financing Financial Lease

Page 3: New PT Trimegah Sekuritas Indonesia Tbk | - August 14, 2015 BFI … · 2019. 11. 4. · PT Trimegah Securities Tbk - COMPANY FOCUS 6 COMPANY ANALYSIS Brief Corporate Profile BFI Finance

PT Trimegah Securities Tbk - www.trimegah.com COMPANY FOCUS 3

Figure 3. Financing Industry Funding Sources (in Rp bn)

Source: OJK, Trimegah Research

Figure 4. 4W sales figure (in units)

Source: Gaikindo, Trimegah Research

Indonesian automotive sales: will remain sluggish this year

Data from Gaikindo shows that 4W and 2W sales are showing a declining trend since 2014 and we expect it to

remain sluggish this year due to rising inflation and slower economic growth. As aforementioned, our finding also

suggest that there is a high correlation between automotive sales and GDP growth in Indonesia. Hence, adding

with the expectedly less than 5% GDP growth this year we expect auto sales growth to remain slow this year.

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

Jan-0

2

Jul-02

Jan-0

3

Jul-03

Jan-0

4

Jul-04

Jan-0

5

Jul-05

Jan-0

6

Jul-06

Jan-0

7

Jul-07

Jan-0

8

Jul-08

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9

Jul-09

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Jul-10

Jan-1

1

Jul-11

Jan-1

2

Jul-12

Jan-1

3

Jul-13

Jan-1

4

Jul-14

Jan-1

54W Sales (units) % YoY growth (RHS)

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50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

Jan

-14

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4

Ma

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4

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y-1

4

Jun

-14

Jul-

14

Au

g-1

4

Se

p-1

4

Oct

-14

No

v-1

4

De

c-1

4

Jan

-15

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

r-1

5

Ap

r-1

5

Fund Borrowings Securities Issued Sub-debt

Page 4: New PT Trimegah Sekuritas Indonesia Tbk | - August 14, 2015 BFI … · 2019. 11. 4. · PT Trimegah Securities Tbk - COMPANY FOCUS 6 COMPANY ANALYSIS Brief Corporate Profile BFI Finance

PT Trimegah Securities Tbk - www.trimegah.com COMPANY FOCUS 4

Figure 5. 2W sales figure (in units)

Source: Gaikindo, Trimegah Research

Figure 6. GDP vs Indonesia car sales

Source: Bloomberg, CEIC, Trimegah Research

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

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80

100

120

140

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

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Jul-02

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Jul-04

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Jul-05

Jan-0

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Jul-06

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Jul-08

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Jul-10

Jan-1

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Jul-11

Jan-1

2

Jul-12

Jan-1

3

Jul-13

Jan-1

4

Jul-14

Jan-1

5

2W Sales (units) % YoY growth (RHS)

Page 5: New PT Trimegah Sekuritas Indonesia Tbk | - August 14, 2015 BFI … · 2019. 11. 4. · PT Trimegah Securities Tbk - COMPANY FOCUS 6 COMPANY ANALYSIS Brief Corporate Profile BFI Finance

PT Trimegah Securities Tbk - www.trimegah.com COMPANY FOCUS 5

Heavy equipment sales: potential shifts from mining to construction sector

Data from Komatsu also shows a slowing trend in heavy equipment sales YoY, despite increasing YTD. We note a

slowdown in sales to mining sector due to sluggish growth in commodities-related sectors. Moreover, sales to

plantations and forestry sectors are also declining.

We view a potential shift to the construction sector from mining following the execution of government infra-

structure projects. Thus, we expect heavy equipment financial lease to grow flat this year and start to pick up

starting next year.

Source: United Tractors, Company, Trimegah Research

Figure 7. Komatsu’s monthly heavy equipment sales

Figure 8. Komatsu’s monthly heavy equipment sales breakdown

Source: United Tractors, Company, Trimegah Research

503

374334

366324

306 301

242 232251

170

110

244275

244203 207

Jan-14

Feb-1

4

Mar-

14

Apr-

14

May-14

Jun-1

4

Jul-

14

Aug-14

Sep-1

4

Oct-

14

Nov-14

Dec-1

4

Jan-15

Feb-1

5

Mar-

15

Apr-

15

May-15

42%29%

36% 37% 32% 36% 35% 39%

24%34% 30% 32% 33% 35% 32% 35% 29%

28%

32%29% 28%

26% 24% 31% 22%

31%

30%27%

35%23%

33%33% 28% 44%

15%19%

26% 22%23%

31% 23% 29%29%

25%

22%

19%

16%

10% 11% 17%

19%

15% 20%9% 13% 19%

9% 11% 10%16% 11%

21%14%

28%22% 24% 20%

8%

Jan

-14

Feb-14

Mar-1

4

Ap

r-1

4

May-1

4

Ju

n-1

4

Ju

l-1

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Au

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Sep-1

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Oct-

14

Nov-1

4

Dec-1

4

Jan

-15

Feb-15

Mar-1

5

Ap

r-1

5

May-1

5

Mining Construction Agro Forestry

Page 6: New PT Trimegah Sekuritas Indonesia Tbk | - August 14, 2015 BFI … · 2019. 11. 4. · PT Trimegah Securities Tbk - COMPANY FOCUS 6 COMPANY ANALYSIS Brief Corporate Profile BFI Finance

PT Trimegah Securities Tbk - www.trimegah.com COMPANY FOCUS 6

COMPANY ANALYSIS

Brief Corporate Profile

BFI Finance (BFIN) is based in South Tangerang, West Java, Indonesia, and established under the name of PT

Manufacturers Hanover Leasing Indonesia in 1982. In 1990, the company changed its name into PT Bunas Fi-

nance Indonesia and became one of the first financing companies to be listed in Indonesia Stock Exchange in

1990. During Asia economic crisis in 1997, BFIN successfully managed to restructure its debt without the govern-

ment help and changed its name into PT BFI Finance Indonesia. The company has been doing well and became

more solid in the financing industry, especially from financial and operational perspectives.

The company’s main businesses are consumer financing and financial lease. Other business that the company

does are loan factoring and credit cards but both contribute small portion to its revenue. BFI focus on the 4W and

2W vehicles financing, both new and used, to the low-mid customers. In addition, BFIN also provide financial

lease of heavy equipment to corporations and individuals. BFIN currently owns 220 outlets all across Indonesia

with more than 6,000 employees.

Competitive industry environment

BFIN position in the industry is quite competitive considering high risk of new substitute products (e.g., banks

automotive loans) and high bargaining power of customers. Thus, the competition environment will largely occur

on pricing and services. It all depends on how BFIN can remain efficient in terms of operational costs and how

well it can manage its asset quality risk during the current slowing cycle.

Figure 9. BFIN’s Porter 5 forces analysis

Source: Trimegah Research

Page 7: New PT Trimegah Sekuritas Indonesia Tbk | - August 14, 2015 BFI … · 2019. 11. 4. · PT Trimegah Securities Tbk - COMPANY FOCUS 6 COMPANY ANALYSIS Brief Corporate Profile BFI Finance

PT Trimegah Securities Tbk - www.trimegah.com COMPANY FOCUS 7

Figure 10. BFIN’s main business composition (in Rp bn)

Source: Company, Trimegah Research

2,521 3,538

4,595 4,978

6,777 6,990

240

607

1,339

2,381

2,309

3,887

-

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Gross Consumer Financing Receivables Gross Investments in Financial Leases

Assets profile: dominated by used 4W consumer financing

Consumer financing dominates the assets composition with ~22.6% CAGR during 2009-2014. Used 4W business

dominates the consumer financing portfolio—accounts for 62% of managed bookings and 22% of new bookings

in FY14. The majority of consumer financing business is for commercial purposes (minibus, trucks, and jeep).

Meanwhile, financial lease is the second main business line which has reported enormous growth (~74.5% CAGR

during 2009-2014) due to commodity boom. In 2014, heavy equipment leasing registered slower growth due to

slowdown in the commodities-related sectors.

Page 8: New PT Trimegah Sekuritas Indonesia Tbk | - August 14, 2015 BFI … · 2019. 11. 4. · PT Trimegah Securities Tbk - COMPANY FOCUS 6 COMPANY ANALYSIS Brief Corporate Profile BFI Finance

PT Trimegah Securities Tbk - www.trimegah.com COMPANY FOCUS 8

2 ,8853,454

5,710

6 ,9571 ,045

1,505

2,163

2 ,419

1 ,095

1,967

1,150

1 ,214

461

447

531

596

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

2011 2012 2013 2014

Used four-wheeler financing New four-wheeler financing

Heavy equipment financing Used two-wheeler financing

Figure 11. Managed receivables breakdown

Source: Company, Trimegah Research

3,038 3 ,422

5 ,517 6,150

941

1 ,110

1 ,529

1,469

1,087

1 ,803

809

838

676

658

781

814

-

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

10,000

2011 2012 2013 2014

Used four-wheeler financing New four-wheeler financing

Heavy equipment financing Used two-wheeler financing

Figure 12. New bookings breakdown

Source: Company, Trimegah Research

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PT Trimegah Securities Tbk - www.trimegah.com COMPANY FOCUS 9

43% 43% 44%

19% 20% 19%

19% 20% 19%

14% 12% 13%

4% 4% 5%

2012 2013 2014

Minibus Truck Pick-up Jeep Bus Passenger car

Figure 13. Breakdown of 4W financing by type

Source: Company, Trimegah Research

M ining, 3 9%

M ining, 2 9%

C ons truction, 25 %

C ons truction, 2 5%

Indus trial and

M anufac turing, 1 0% Indus trial and

M anufac turing, 1 9%

P lantation, 1 3%P lantation, 9%

Fores try, 9 %

Fores try, 7%

Servic es, 2 %

Servic es, 5%

T rade and D is tribution,

1 %T rad e and D is tribution,

2%

O thers, 1 % O thers, 4%

2013 2014

Figure 14. Heavy equipment leasing based on sectors

Source: Company, Trimegah Research

Page 10: New PT Trimegah Sekuritas Indonesia Tbk | - August 14, 2015 BFI … · 2019. 11. 4. · PT Trimegah Securities Tbk - COMPANY FOCUS 6 COMPANY ANALYSIS Brief Corporate Profile BFI Finance

PT Trimegah Securities Tbk - www.trimegah.com COMPANY FOCUS 10

Figure 15. Portfolio Distribution Channels

Source: Company, Trimegah Research

Figure 16. Financing portfolio based on geographical location

Source: Company, Trimegah Research

Greater Jakarta

12%

Java and Bali29%

Sumatera19%

Kalimantan18%

Sulawesi and East

Indonesia22%

2014

Greater Jakarta

11%

Java and Bali26%

Sumatera22%

Kalimantan20%

Sulawesi and East

Indonesia21%

2013

Dealer

financing

60%

Direct via

branch

40%

2013

Dealer

financing

58%

Direct via

branch

42%

2014

Page 11: New PT Trimegah Sekuritas Indonesia Tbk | - August 14, 2015 BFI … · 2019. 11. 4. · PT Trimegah Securities Tbk - COMPANY FOCUS 6 COMPANY ANALYSIS Brief Corporate Profile BFI Finance

PT Trimegah Securities Tbk - www.trimegah.com COMPANY FOCUS 11

Balanced capital structure

BFIN largely utilizes fund borrowings and equity to finance its operational. While at the same time, the usage of

debt securities as alternative source of funding is also increasing. The diverse sources of funding should benefit

BFIN since it will reduce cost of funds going forward. We also found out that BFIN’s funding composition is rela-

tively more efficient compare to its competitors since it utilizes cheaper funding sources (fund borrowings and

equity).

1 ,593 2 ,316 2 ,406

3 ,172 3 ,933 4 ,370 4 ,829

5 ,484 1 ,941

2 ,366 2 ,862

3 ,397

3 ,614 3 ,857

4 ,140

4 ,450

1 60

485

905

1 ,233

1 ,295

1 ,411

1 ,524

1 ,665

-

-

225

225

330

394

426

465

-

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015F 2016F 2017F

Fund Borrowings Equity Bond Securities MTN

Figure 17. BFIN’s funding composition

Source: Company, Trimegah Research

46% 43%37%

46%

63%

15%

39% 51%

12%

30%39%

18%12%

43%

7%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

ADMF BFIN CFIN WOMF MFIN

Borrowings Equity Bonds & MTN

Figure 18. Funding composition comparison (as at FY14)

Source: Company, Trimegah Research

Page 12: New PT Trimegah Sekuritas Indonesia Tbk | - August 14, 2015 BFI … · 2019. 11. 4. · PT Trimegah Securities Tbk - COMPANY FOCUS 6 COMPANY ANALYSIS Brief Corporate Profile BFI Finance

PT Trimegah Securities Tbk - www.trimegah.com COMPANY FOCUS 12

PEERS COMPARISON

Relatively lower credit costs compare to its peers

BFIN’s historical credit cost is considerably among the lowest compared to its peers which provide both consumer

financing and financial lease; competing with Clipan Finance (CFIN) but far below ADMF. On a overall basis,

BFIN’s credit cost is also relatively low, indicating robust asset quality. Its write-offs rate is relatively lower than

most of its competitors. BFIN’s credit cost has been increasing in the past 4 years as a result of increasing cover-

age ratio. We expect stabilizing NPF ratio on the back of consistent write-offs despite challenging macro condi-

tion, but credit costs is also expected to stabilize on the back of high loan loss coverage—already comfortable to

cover NPF risks.

Figure 19. Gross NPF, Credit costs, and coverage ratio outlook

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

ADMF BFIN CFIN WOMF MFIN

Figure 20. Credit costs comparison among Indonesian financing stocks

Source: Companies Financial Statements, Trimegah Research

Source: Company, Trimegah Research

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015F 2016F 2017F

Gross NPF (%) Credit Cost (%) Loan Loss Coverage (RHS, in %)

Page 13: New PT Trimegah Sekuritas Indonesia Tbk | - August 14, 2015 BFI … · 2019. 11. 4. · PT Trimegah Securities Tbk - COMPANY FOCUS 6 COMPANY ANALYSIS Brief Corporate Profile BFI Finance

PT Trimegah Securities Tbk - www.trimegah.com COMPANY FOCUS 13

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

4.0%

4.5%

5.0%

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

ADMF BFIN CFIN WOMF MFIN

Figure 21. write-offs rate to total financing comparison

Source: Companies Financial Statements, Trimegah Research

Page 14: New PT Trimegah Sekuritas Indonesia Tbk | - August 14, 2015 BFI … · 2019. 11. 4. · PT Trimegah Securities Tbk - COMPANY FOCUS 6 COMPANY ANALYSIS Brief Corporate Profile BFI Finance

PT Trimegah Securities Tbk - www.trimegah.com COMPANY FOCUS 14

-40.0%

-20.0%

0.0%

20.0%

40.0%

60.0%

80.0%

100.0%

120.0%

140.0%

160.0%

180.0%

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

ADMF BFIN CFIN WOMF MFIN

Figure 22. Consumer financing YoY growth comparison

Source: Companies Financial Statements, Trimegah Research

-100.0%

0.0%

100.0%

200.0%

300.0%

400.0%

500.0%

600.0%

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

ADMF BFIN CFIN

Figure 23. Financial lease YoY growth comparison

Source: Companies Financial Statements, Trimegah Research

Less volatile business growth

Our findings also suggest that BFIN’s business growth is relatively less volatile compared to its competitors as

reflected by relatively more stable growth of consumer financing and financial lease YoY growth. Even at the

current period, both BFIN’s consumer financing and financial lease growth outpaced its bigger competitor, ADMF.

We deemed that BFIN’s less aggressive strategy could be beneficial at these bearish cycle, where defensive qual-

ity shows its superiority.

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PT Trimegah Securities Tbk - www.trimegah.com COMPANY FOCUS 15

-60.0%

-40.0%

-20.0%

0.0%

20.0%

40.0%

60.0%

80.0%

100.0%

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

ADMF BFIN CFIN WOMF MFIN

-100.0%

-80.0%

-60.0%

-40.0%

-20.0%

0.0%

20.0%

40.0%

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

ADMF BFIN CFIN WOMF MFIN

Source: Companies Financial Statements, Trimegah Research

Source: Companies Financial Statements, Trimegah Research

Figure 24. PPOP growth comparison

Figure 25. Net Profit growth comparison

Relatively stable earnings growth

Our examination reveals BFIN’s earnings growth is relatively stable as reflected by less volatile PPOP and net

profit growth than most of its competitors, adding another defensive quality. Moreover, its margins and cost of

funds are also found to be relatively stable.

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PT Trimegah Securities Tbk - www.trimegah.com COMPANY FOCUS 16

1H15 RESULTS SNAPSHOT

The company booked 15% YoY net profit growth in 1H15 to Rp 298bn, translates to Rp150bn on a QoQ basis.

The growth was mainly driven by 13% YoY net interest income growth, which was due to 80bps YoY yield im-

provement. However, we also see a 47% YoY higher provisioning expense as in line with the slowing economy.

In terms of booking, BFIN reported 24% YoY increase in new bookings amidst economic slowdown. The relatively

strong new bookings growth is mainly due to non-dealer used 4W bookings. This is also in line with our on-the-

ground channel checks that indicates resilient used 4W demand. This led to 20% YoY managed receivables

growth.

Some guidance for FY15

• Expect rising NPF ratio in 2H15

• Net profit growth in FY15 will be <15% YoY

• 5 new branches will open this year—this reflects the management optimism that there will be some pick up

in growth in 2H15

• The management indicates to increase exposure to used passenger cars financing from currently commercial

cars financing. This is due to lower credit cost on the passenger cars segment

• There is an indication that the management will continue to pay dividends going forward. The latest payout is

50% of the earnings

1H14

NII (Rp bn) 629

Total Revenue (Rp bn) 1,100

Provisioning (Rp bn) 100

Net Profit (Rp bn) 259

New Bookings (Rp bn) 4,546

Total Managed Receivables*

(Rp bn) 10,463

NIM (%), as calculated by the

company 7.9

Total Assets (Rp bn) 8,990

Total Borrowings (Rp bn) 5,006

Total Equity (Rp bn) 3,523

CoC/Avg. Receivables (%) 2.1

1H15 YoY

(%)

2Q14 1Q15 2Q15 QoQ

(%)

YoY

(%)

710 12.9 316 349 360 3.2 14.0

1,352 22.9 568 655 698 6.6 22.8

147 46.5 58 72 75 4.8 30.1

298 14.9 129 147 150 1.7 16.5

5,647 24.2

12,582 20.3

10,740 19.5

6,562 31.1

3,823 8.5

8.2 0.3

2.7 0.6

NPL (%) 1.6 1.7 0.1

Write-offs rate (%) 1.0 1.4 0.4

Debt/equity (x) 1.3x 1.6x 0.3x

Figure 26. 1H15 result snapshot

*include off-balance sheet financing

Source: Company, Trimegah Research

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PT Trimegah Securities Tbk - www.trimegah.com COMPANY FOCUS 17

ON-THE-GROUND CHANNEL CHECKS TO THE LARGEST USED 4W MARKET IN JAKARTA

Used passenger 4W demand remains intact...

As aforementioned, the company guided to increase exposure toward used passenger 4W financing going for-

ward. We then had a chance to visit used 4W market in WTC Mangga Dua, the largest used passenger 4W mar-

ket in Jakarta. According to the dealers, demand for used cars remains intact despite slowdown in the new car

sales. They claimed that there was a slight slowdown in the recent months, but they said that it was rather sea-

sonal. On average, a dealer are able to sell 10 used-cars per month. In mid-May 2015, around 5 used-cars per

dealer were already sold. In conclusion, we view that the second-hand cars market is still resilient and BFIN

should benefit from this considering at the current economic down cycle, customers are expected to buy used 4W

rather than new ones given the rising new LCGC price.

...but dealership competition remains tight

Our observation suggests that the financing companies cooperating with the dealers are mostly unlisted competi-

tors, e.g., BCA Finance, Astra Credit Companies, and OTO Multi Artha. The main reason is they are favorited by

customers for lower interest rates offered and better service qualities. We did not see any of BFIN’s presence

there (ads or marketing agents) - even ADMF was also not there. Hence, we note this as a competition risk for

BFIN considering the size of the market.

Figure 27. Pictures taken from the largest used cars market in WTC Mangga Dua, Jakarta

Source: Trimegah Research

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PT Trimegah Securities Tbk - www.trimegah.com COMPANY FOCUS 18

OUTLOOK AND VALUATION

Initiate with a “Buy”, TP Rp3,550 (39% ups.)

Outlook: we still expect the industry to post sluggish growth until the end of this year due to the slowing econo-

my condition. Despite some optimism of the economic growth pick up in 2H15, we conservatively assume a

single digit consumer financing and financial lease growth in 2015/16F. We also expect rising cost of credit this

year as there is a likelihood of decline in customers’ repayment ability. As a result, we project 7/6/7% EPS

growth for 2015/16/17F. Despite that, ROE is expected to maintain at ~16%. Further upside will come from the

uptick in consumption growth in 2H15.

We use Gordon Growth Methodology (GGM) in valuing BFIN’s stock since its business model is similar with banks.

Assuming 15.8% sustainable ROE, 4.8% long-term growth rate, and 12.8% cost of equity, we arrive at Rp3,500

TP (37% ups.) implying 1.4x 2015F PBV. At the current share price, BFIN trades cheaply at 1.0x 2015F PBV.

Considering its undemanding valuation, ~16% ROE, attractive dividend yield and some defensive qualities, we

therefore initiate our coverage for BFIN with a “Buy”.

Key investment risks

1) Unexpected rise in inflation, which could lead to further rise in credit costs

2) Slower consumption growth

3) Tightening competition

4) Adverse regulatory interventions

2015F

Sustainable ROE (%) 15.8

Long-term Growth Rate (%) 4.8

Cost of Equity (%) 12.8

Justified PBV (x) 1.4

BV of Equity (Rp) 2,548

Implied 2015F P/E (x) 8.6

Target Price (Rp) 3,535

Risk-Free Rate (%) 7.75

Stock Beta 1.0

Market Risk Premium (%) 5.0

Target Price (Rounded, in Rp) 3,550

Figure 28. BFIN’s valuation using Gordon Growth Methodology (GGM)

Source: Trimegah Research

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PT Trimegah Securities Tbk - www.trimegah.com COMPANY FOCUS 19

Figure 29. BFIN’s 5-years forward PBV band

Figure 30. BFIN’s 5-years forward PE band

+2 stdev

-2 stdev

-1 stdev

mean

+1 stdev

+2 stdev

-2 stdev

-1 stdev

mean

+1 stdev

Source: Bloomberg, Trimegah Research

Source: Bloomberg, Trimegah Research

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

Jan

-10

Ap

r-1

0

Jul-

10

Oct

-10

Jan

-11

Ap

r-1

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Jul-

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-11

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r-1

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Jul-

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-12

Jan

-13

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r-1

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Jul-

13

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-13

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r-1

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r-1

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Jul-

15

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2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

Jan

-10

Ap

r-1

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Jul-

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-10

Jan

-11

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r-1

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r-1

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Income Statement (Rp bn)

Year end Dec 2013 2014 2015F 2016F 2017F

Interest Income 1,514 1,792 1,960 2,072 2,294

Interest Ex-

pense 421 502 535 542 606

NII 1,092 1,291 1,425 1,530 1,688

Non Interest

Income 713 831 474 583 707

Operating Ex-

pense 1,085 1,306 1,500 1,699 1,994

PPOP 805 990 1,014 1,036 1,086

Provisioning

Expenses 138 245 218 191 182

Operating Profit 667 745 796 845 904

Tax Expense 159 151 161 171 183

Net Profit 509 594 635 674 721

EPS (Rp/Share) 333 385 411 437 467

EPS Growth (%) 3.4 15.6 6.9 6.2 6.9

Dividend Per

Share 0 264 226 217 231

Dividend Growth

(%) 0.0 0.0 -14.4 -3.8 6.6

Balance Sheet (Rp bn)

Year end Dec 2013 2014 2015F 2016F 2017F

Cash and Equivalents 225 290 149 159 172

Time Deposits 0 0 0 0 0

Financial Lease-Net 1,929 3,115 3,144 3,300 3,652

Consumer Financing-

Net 5,310 5,443 5,719 6,215 7,197

Other Receivables 83 126 113 121 137

Other Assets 415 376 340 359 407

Total Assets 8,293 9,671 9,842 10,574 12,022

Total Earning Assets 7,239 8,559 8,863 9,515 10,849

Borrowings 3,172 3,933 3,820 4,075 4,917

Debt Securities 1,454 1,622 1,768 1,866 2,060

Other Liabilities 109 106 111 117 123

Total Liabilities 4,897 6,056 5,909 6,302 7,386

Total Shareholder's

Equity 3,397 3,614 3,933 4,272 4,636

BVPS (Rp/Share) 2,224 2,341 2,548 2,767 3,003

Key Ratio Analysis

Year end Dec 2013 2014 2015F 2016F 2017F

Earning Assets Yield (%) 23.0 22.7 22.5 22.5 22.5

Cost of Funds (%) 10.3 9.9 9.6 9.4 9.4

NIM, as calculated (%) 16.6 16.3 16.4 16.6 16.6

ROE (%) 15.0 16.4 16.1 15.8 15.6

ROA (%) 6.1 6.1 6.5 6.4 6.0

Cost to Income Ratio (%) 57.4 56.9 59.7 62.1 64.7

Net Consumer Financing

Growth (%) 36.1 3.1 4.1 8.5 15.1

Net Financial Lease

Growth (%) -0.7 62.2 1.5 5.2 10.6

Funding Growth (%) 30.9 20.0 0.6 6.3 17.4

Receivables/Funding (%) 196.2 195.7 201.7 203.5 196.4

Asset/Equity (x) 2.4 2.7 2.5 2.5 2.6

Gross NPL (%) 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.2

Loan Loss Coverage (%) 80.5 123.3 126.4 114.9 110.8

Cost of credit 1.2 1.8 1.9 1.6 1.3

Interim Result (Rpbn)

2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15

Total Financing &

Leasing—net 7,767 7,892 8,559 8,704 9,307

Total Deposit 5,006 5,051 5,555 6,186 6,562

Total Asset 8,991 9,023 9,671 10,265 10,740

Revenue 568 578 622 655 698

PPOP 230 245 255 255 262

Operating profit 172 198 205 184 187

Net Profit 129 149 189 147 150

Capital History

Date

16-Jun-90 IPO @ Rp5,750

07-Aug-12 Stock split 1:2

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PT Trimegah Securities Tbk

Gedung Artha Graha 18th Floor

Jl. Jend. Sudirman Kav. 52-53

Jakarta 12190, Indonesia

t. +62-21 2924 9088

f. +62-21 2924 9150

www.trimegah.com

DISCLAIMER

This report has been prepared by PT Trimegah Securities Tbk on behalf of itself and its affiliated companies and is provided for information

purposes only. Under no circumstances is it to be used or considered as an offer to sell, or a solicitation of any offer to buy. This report has

been produced independently and the forecasts, opinions and expectations contained herein are entirely those of Trimegah Securities.

While all reasonable care has been taken to ensure that information contained herein is not untrue or misleading at the time of publication,

Trimegah Securities makes no representation as to its accuracy or completeness and it should not be relied upon as such. This report is

provided solely for the information of clients of Trimegah Securities who are expected to make their own investment decisions without reliance

on this report. Neither Trimegah Securities nor any officer or employee of Trimegah Securities accept any liability whatsoever for any direct or

consequential loss arising from any use of this report or its contents. Trimegah Securities and/or persons connected with it may have acted

upon or used the information herein contained, or the research or analysis on which it is based, before publication. Trimegah Securities may in

future participate in an offering of the company’s equity securities.

One of major PT Trimegah Securities Tbk’s major shareholders is also a major shareholder of PT BFI Finance Tbk.