trim daily - trimegah · pt trimegah securities tbk - trim daily 1 jci has fallen for three days...

TRIM DAILY PT Trimegah Securities Tbk - www.trimegah.com 1

JCI has fallen for three days in a row but we remain cautious as flow of re-

sults are generally negative and expect earnings downgrade cycle to contin-

ue. Results: BTPN, BDMN, JPFA, AUTO below. Upcoming bank results today:

BJTM and BBCA (expect both to report in-line results with more downside on

BJTM due to higher NPL risk). The 2Q result season is likely to disappoint

overall with few exceptions such as TLKM, TMAS (not yet published) and

BBTN, AKRA (already published).

TRIM Daily

TRIM Highlights

Jul 29, 2015

Jakarta Composite Index (JCI) down by 56 point or 1.2% to 4714 yesterday. Index movers were mostly driven by finance, property construction and basic industry. Total transaction value was Rp4.6tr. IDX recorded Rp527bn net sell by foreign investors. JCI is a long term bearish. However, we expect an upside for JCI in the short-term to close its price-gap and reach the re-sistance level of 4,771. We believe JCI to move between the range of 4,695-

4,771 for today.

Technical Market View

Global investors were looking for any signals from the Fed on the timing of first rate increase when a two-day policy meeting concludes on Wednesday (U.S time). No move on rates is expected this week.

Global Wrap

Technical analysis: trading picks

JCI 4,714.7

Global Indices

Dual Listing (NYSE)

Others

(USD) (Rp) Chg %

42.4 14,266 0.58 1.4TLKM

Change -1.18%

Transaction Volume (m) 4,547

Transaction Value (Rpbn) 4,617

Mkt Cap (Rptr) 4,843

Market 2015 P/E (x) 12.0

Market Div. Yield (%) 2.4%

Price Chg %

Dow Jones 17,630.3 189.7 1.1

Nasdaq 5,089.2 49.4 1.0

Nikkei 20,328.9 -21.2 -0.1

ST Times 3,281.1 -32.3 -1.0

FTSE 6,555.3 50.1 0.8

Hang Seng 24,503.9 152 0.6

Chg %

USD IDR 13,465 2 0.0

10 yr Indo Govt bond (%) 8.53 0.2 1.9

10 yr US govt bond (%) 2.3 0.04 1.8

Spread (%) 6.27 0.12 0.1

EIDO 22.0 -0.0 -0.1

Foreign YtD (USDmn) (1,251) -82 7

Stock Price Rating Reason

PTBA 6425 Spec Buy

PTBA formed a long white candle yesterday. PTBA would create a technical rebound today, in our view. MACD indicator formed golden cross, our view that PTBA would break its 6550 resistance and formed a bullish pattern post today’s technical rebound. We expect the stock to be traded be-tween the range of 6300-6550 for today.

PGAS 3935 Spec Buy PGAS is a long term bullish with possible upside movement for today between the range of 3860-3990

KLBF 1655 Buy

KLBF remains on the long term bullish pattern.

Stochastic oscillator indicates an oversold while MACD would form a golden cross. KLBF is a Buy, in our view, with today’s range of 1630-1750

GGRM 47975 Buy

GGRM is a long term bearish. However, we ex-pect the stock would form a short-term up-trend as the stock formed white soldier with increasing volumes. We expect GGRM to further increase today within the range of 46500-48550

AKRA 6025 Sell

With the last two weaks days increase, KLBF is Overbought, in our view. We expect a technical correction for the stock today within the trading range of 5800-6200. Sell AKRA at level 6200.

BDMN 4085 Sell

BDMN remains in a long term bullish pattern. However, it formed a short term down-trend channel. Thus we believe the stock would weaken and forms a short-term bearish pattern. Today’s range is 4030-4150

PT Trimegah Securities Tbk - www.trimegah.com TRIM DAILY 2

Result 2Q15

BTPN: 2Q15 result Below

• BTPN reported Rp928bn net profit as at 1H15 (Rp448bn on a QoQ basis), booked -6.8% YoY growth. The realization

makes up 46/42% of ours and consensus’ FY15 estimates, mainly due to slower revenue growth.

• We noted a declining NIM by ~10bps QoQ to 11.2%. This was mainly driven by slower loan growth in 2Q15 (4.9%

YoY vs 12.3% YoY in 1Q15) to Rp52.5tr. This led ROE to decrease by ~360bps YoY to 14.2%. Meanwhile, deposits

also grew slower at 2.8% YoY to Rp54.4tr, bringing LDR to 97%.

• Asset quality shows an improvement as reflected by gross NPL ratio decline by 11bps to 0.75%, which also brings

slower growth of provisioning expense by 2.1% YoY to Rp206bn.

• Overall, the result was below ours and consensus expectation. However, we have a Buy recommendation on BTPN

with Rp4,300 TP (1.8x 2015F PBV) on the back of: 1) its market leader position in pensioners niche market, 2) low

deteriorating asset quality risk from its loan book, and 3) expectedly strong fee-based income growth from branch-

less banking and bancassurance business. The stock currently trades at 1.4x 2015F PBV.

([email protected])

2Q14 1Q15 2Q15 QoQ

chg (%)

YoY chg (%)

1H15 YoY chg

(%)

2Q15/2Q15F

(%)

1H15/FY15F

(%)

1H15/FY15F

cons

Net Int. Inc. 1,799 1,845 1,890 2.4 5.0 3,734 5.7 89.2 46.6 45.5

Net Revenue 1,985 2,054 2,083 1.4 4.9 4,137 7.2 87.4 45.7 46.3

Op. Profit 686 657 624 (5.0) (9.0) 1,281 (5.6) 69.2 43.1 41.6

Net Income 502 481 448 (6.8) (10.9) 928 (6.8) 71.9 45.9 42.3

NIM 11.1 11.3 11.2 (0.1) 0.1

ROE 17.8 15.3 14.2 (1.1) (3.6)

ROA 2.8 2.5 2.3 (0.2) (0.5)


Result 2Q15

• BDMN reported Rp1.25tr net profit in 1H15, or Rp565bn on a quarterly basis, grew by -14.3% YoY on the back of

shrinking revenue growth and higher cost of credit. The weak profit only makes up 48% and 39% of ours and con-

sensus estimates.

• Net interest margin is also declining by 20bps QoQ due to the company shifted its asset mix toward non-mass mar-

ket segments. Likewise, there was a 60bps QoQ decrease in ROE to 7.6%.

• Non-mass market loans grew by 1% YoY to Rp70.4tr, mostly driven by SME and retail loans. However, its overall

loans growth was -3% YoY due to negative growth in mass market loans. Deposits were also growing slowly – most-

ly less than 5%, bringing LDR slightly improved to 89.6%.

• BDMN asset quality deteriorates as reflected by ~40bps QoQ increase in NPL ratio to 2.9%. New NPL from mass

market and SME & commercial loans was the main culprit of the rising ratio. This was in line with our view that

mass market and SME customers’ financial ability are mostly impacted by the slowing economy, hence NPL from

these segments are also prone to rise. As aforementioned, this has caused rising cost of credit by ~20bps QoQ.

• Outlook: the management guided to continue the cost rationalization program, at least until the end of this year.

We expect more headcount cuts and branches closures in the upcoming quarters. Hence, adding with the slowing

economy, rising NPL and cost of credit, we are yet to see the turnaround results in the near term.

• Our recommendation for BDMN is Sell due to its higher risk of deteriorating loans quality and higher risk of paying

additional taxes from written-off loans with outstanding amount between Rp5mn-Rp100mn. Our TP is Rp4,100,

implying 1.1x 2015F PBV. ([email protected])

2Q14 1Q15 2Q15 QoQ chg (%)

YoY chg (%)

1H15 YoY chg (%)

2Q15/2Q15F (%)

1H15/FY15F (%)

1H15/FY15F cons

Net Int. Income 3,318 3,430 3,310 (3.5) (0.3) 6,740 (0.3) 90.5 46.9 42.4

Net Revenue 4,531 4,488 4,123 (8.2) (9.0) 8,611 (9.0) 75.7 42.9 39.7

Op. Profit 866 941 787 (16.3) (9.0) 1,728 (9.0) 48.1 33.6 38.8

Net Income 660 687 565 (17.7) (14.3) 1,252 (14.3) 77.8 47.8 39.1

NIM (%) 8.2 8.3 8.1 (0.2) (0.1) 8.1

ROE (%) 8.1 8.1 7.6 (0.6) (0.5) 7.6

ROA (%) 1.3 1.4 1.3 (0.2) (0.0) 1.3

BDMN: Below


News of the Day

Government to introduce law limiting land bank

ownership by property developer

Rule is Ministry of Agrarian Rule No 5/2015. This limits

the amount of land bank by developers to 400ha per

province and 4,000ha for whole country. However the

rule does not affect listed companies and SOEs. Source

Kontan. [email protected]

Ministry of Energy stated half of land for 35,000

MW program are ready to be cleared

Minister Sudirman Said stated that 100 out of 212 total

land parcels for power plant project are ready to be

cleared. Government is aiming for contract signing by

next year. Government will also start ground breaking in

Grati, East Java; Gorontalo; Mine Mouth area in South

Sumatera. Ground breaking for Batang power plant will

be done in October this year. Government claims that it

has solved all the land acquisition problem and received

license from governor. PLN is using the Land Acquisition

Law No 2/2012 as basis. However government cautioned

that if there is a court case then there will be potential

delay. Source Kontan. [email protected]

Import tariff for 4W is not well targeted

Industry players perceives the import tariff increase for

4W is not well targeted given that most imports is still

dominated by Free-Trade agreement countries. Source:

Bisnis Indonesia ([email protected])

SSMS: Reported flat net profit in 1H

Net profit is Rp351.3bn, down 1.01% yoy. Revenue is

slightly down from Rp1.31tn to Rp1.3tn. Source Kontan.

[email protected]

PTBA: Recorded 2% volume growth in 1H15

Company sold 9.03mn tonnes if coal, up 2% yoy. Compa-

ny targets 24mn tonnes coal sales or up 33% yoy. Source

Kontan.

HERO: Booked Rp32bn losses for 1H15

This comes on the back of higher salary expenses, higher

inventories and outlet rationalization. Net revenue is up

15.09% yoy. HERO has closed 63 outlets year to date, 39

being Starmart outlets. HERO is considering a different

strategy for its convenient store biz. Source Kontan.

[email protected]

BSDE: Sinarmas Land considering venture to Batam

area

Master plan is currently being developed and will be

announced in September with land bank of 288ha.

Source Kontan.

INVS: To sell 20% shares to A Hongkong based com-

pany

The HK based investor is Fortune Phoenix Investment

Holding. This will be executed after INVS shares start

trading again. INVS will use the proceeds to acquire prop-

erty and financial services firm. INVS will also divest its

coal asset. Source Kontan. [email protected]

Bintan Alumina Indonesia asked for government

support in land acquisition

Smelter will occupy 2,700ha area in Bintan, Riau. Land

acquisition setback may delay completion from 2016 to

2017. Currently the company has acquired 2,000ha land.

Total investment for the whole project is US$6bn bu

Nanshan Aluminium Co and Bintan Alumina. Source Kon-

tan. [email protected]

AUTO: 1H15 net profit down 66.5% YoY, way below

FY15 consensus target

Astra Otoparts (AUTO) 1H15 revenue reached IDR5.7trn (-

8.1% YoY) with relatively stable gross margin of 14.4% vs

14.8% in 1H14. However higher opex led to an operating

profit drag (-46.7% YoY) and a net profit severe decline (-

66.5% YoY). 1H15 net profit only accounts 25% of FY15

net profit consensus target. Source: Company

([email protected])

Auto 2000 targets sales of 275k units of 4W this

year, down 11.6% YoY

Auto 2000 targets sales of 275k units of 4W this year,

down 11.6% YoY compared to 2014’s actualization of 311k

units. 1H15 Auto 2000 sold 131k units contributing 78% of

Toyota Indonesia sales. Auto 2000 plans to add 3 dealer

units this year in Majalengka, Bali and Bogor with invest-

ment of ~IDR50bn per dealer (including land). Note that

Auto 2000 is part of ASII’s main selling agent for its 4W

s e g m e n t . S o u r c e : B i s n i s I n d o n e s i a

([email protected])

1H15 1H14 YoY

Revenue 5,724 6,227 -8.1%

Gross profit 824 922 -10.6%

Gross margin 14.4% 14.8%

Op. profit 161 302 -46.7%

Op. margin 2.8% 4.9%

626 -69.6% Pre-tax profit 190

Pre-tax margin 3.3% 10.0%

Net profit 152 454 -66.5%

Net margin 2.7% 7.3%

Source: Company


News of the Day

GIAA: Swings to net profit

GIAA booked net profit of US$27.7mn in 1H15 from a net

loss of US$203mn last year. Revenue is up 4.73% YoY.

Source Kontan

JPFA: 1H15 net loss of Rp272bn

JPFA’s sales for 1H15 slightly declined by -0.4%YoY to

Rp12tr. Gross profit margin down to 12.4% (vs. 1H14

15.0%). 1H15 operating profit down by -52.8%YoY to

Rp352bn with margin 2.9% (vs. 1H14 Rp746bn). Forex

loss was Rp267bn (vs. 1H14 gain Rp21bn). The company

booked net loss of Rp272bn (vs. 1H14 net profit

Rp326bn) during 1H15. Source: Investor Daily

Comment:

The 1H15 result compared to consensus: Sales 44.7% of

FY consensus, operating profit 21.2% of FY consen-

sus. JPFA is traded at 12.5x 2015PE.


Table

Indo Market PE vs Regional (Weekly)

Indo Market PE vs 10yr Bond Yield

Oil Price (Brent), Coal Price (Newcastle), Gold

Foreign Fund Flow in last 5 & 30 days

5yr Bond Yield Indo (USD) vs US Bond Yield

CPO Price, Soybean Price (both 1m Futures)

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

16.0

18.0

20.0

22.0

2010

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

(x)

Weekly Hang Seng Singapore Thailand Philippines Malaysia Indonesia

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

Jul-

14

Aug-14

Aug-14

Sep-1

4

Sep-1

4

Oct-

14

Oct-

14

Nov-1

4

Nov-1

4

Dec-14

Dec-14

Dec-14

Jan-15

Jan-15

Feb-15

Feb-15

Mar-

15

Mar-

15

Apr-

15

Apr-

15

May-15

May-15

Jun-1

5

Jun-1

5

Jun-1

5

Jul-

15

Jul-

15

(%) Bond Yield US Ind 5yr Bond Yield Indo in USD

-94 -90

-888

-291

-2-109

-152-179

-1,970

-799

77

790

(2,500)

(2,000)

(1,500)

(1,000)

(500)

0

500

1,000

IND

ON

ESIA

PH

ILIP

PIN

ES

SO

UTH

KO

REA

TH

AIL

AN

D

VIE

TN

AM

IND

IA

(USDmn) 5 Days 30 Days

500

700

900

1,100

1,300

1,500

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

Jul-

14

Aug-14

Sep-1

4

Sep-1

4

Oct-

14

Nov-1

4

Dec-14

Dec-14

Jan-15

Feb-15

Feb-15

Mar-

15

Apr-

15

Apr-

15

May-15

Jun-1

5

Jun-1

5

Jul-

15

(USD/ Troy oz.)(USD)

Brent Crude Oil (bbl) (LHS) Coal (mt) (LHS) Gold (RHS)

900

950

1,000

1,050

1,100

1,150

1,200

-

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

Aug-14

Sep-1

4

Oct-

14

Nov-1

4

Dec-14

Jan-15

Feb-15

Mar-

15

Apr-

15

May-15

Jun-1

5

Jul-

15

(USD Bushels)(MYR Tons)

CPO Malaysia (LHS) Soybean (RHS)

6.0

6.5

7.0

7.5

8.0

8.5

9.0

12.0

12.5

13.0

13.5

14.0

14.5

15.0

Jul-

14

Aug-

14

Sep-

14

Oct-

14

Nov-

14

Dec-

14

Jan-

15

Feb-

15

Mar-

15

Apr-

15

May-

15

Jun-

15

Jul-

15

(%)(X) JCI PE (LHS) Indo 10Yr Bond Yield (RHS)


Table

INCO, ANTM vs Nickel price (LME)

Coal Price (Newcastle) vs Coal Sector

TINS vs Tin price (LME)

ANTM vs Gold price

CPO Price (1m Futures in Malaysia) vs CPO Sector

GIAA vs Brent Crude Oil

150

175

200

225

250

275

50

55

60

65

70

75

Jul-

14

Aug-14

Sep-1

4

Oct-

14

Nov-1

4

Dec-14

Jan-15

Feb-15

Mar-

15

Apr-

15

May-15

Jun-1

5

(USD/MT)Coal (LHS) COAL Sector (RHS)

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

85

1,500

1,600

1,700

1,800

1,900

2,000

2,100

2,200

2,300

2,400

2,500

Jul-

14

Aug-14

Sep-1

4

Sep-1

4

Oct-

14

Nov-1

4

Dec-14

Dec-14

Jan-15

Feb-15

Feb-15

Mar-

15

Apr-

15

Apr-

15

May-15

Jun-1

5

Jun-1

5

Jul-

15

(MYR / Ton)

CPO Malaysia (LHS) CPO Sector (RHS)

-

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

-

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

5,000

Jul-

14

Aug-14

Sep-1

4

Sep-1

4

Oct-

14

Nov-1

4

Dec-14

Dec-14

Jan-15

Feb-15

Feb-15

Mar-

15

Apr-

15

Apr-

15

May-15

Jun-1

5

Jun-1

5

Jul-

15

(USD /MT)(Rp)

INCO (LHS) ANTM (LHS) Nickel LME (RHS)

500

600

700

800

900

1,000

1,100

1,200

1,300

1,400

500

600

700

800

900

1,000

1,100

1,200

1,300

1,400

Jul-

14

Aug-14

Sep-1

4

Sep-1

4

Oct-

14

Nov-1

4

Dec-14

Dec-14

Jan-15

Feb-15

Feb-15

Mar-

15

Apr-

15

Apr-

15

May-15

Jun-1

5

Jun-1

5

Jul-

15

(USD troy oz.)(Rp) ANTM (LHS) Gold (RHS)

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

20,000

22,000

24,000

500

700

900

1,100

1,300

1,500

1,700

Jul-

14

Aug-14

Sep-1

4

Sep-1

4

Oct-

14

Nov-1

4

Dec-14

Dec-14

Jan-15

Feb-15

Feb-15

Mar-

15

Apr-

15

Apr-

15

May-15

Jun-1

5

Jun-1

5

Jul-

15

(USD/MT)(Rp) TINS (LHS) Tin LME (RHS)

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

300

350

400

450

500

550

600

650

700

Jul-

14

Aug-14

Sep-1

4

Sep-1

4

Oct-

14

Nov-1

4

Dec-14

Dec-14

Jan-15

Feb-15

Feb-15

Mar-

15

Apr-

15

Apr-

15

May-15

Jun-1

5

Jun-1

5

Jul-

15

(USD bbl)(Rp)

GIAA (LHS) Crude Oil Brent (RHS)


World Economic Calendar

Date Time Country Event Period Survey Actual Prior

7/20/2015 US MBA Mortgage Applications 17-Jul -- 0.10% -1.90%

US FHFA House Price Index MoM May 0.40% 0.40% 0.30%

7/22/2015 US Existing Home Sales Jun 5.40E+06 5.49E+06 5.35E+06

US Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index Jun -0.05 0.08 -0.17

US Initial Jobless Claims 18-Jul 278000 255000 281000

US Continuing Claims 11-Jul 2.23E+06 2.21E+06 2.22E+06

US Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 19-Jul -- 42.4 43.2

US Leading Index Jun 0.30% 0.60% 0.70%

7/23/2015 EC Consumer Confidence Jul A -5.8 -7.1 -5.6

EC Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Jul P 52.5 52.2 52.5

EC Markit Eurozone Services PMI Jul P 54.2 53.8 54.4

EC Markit Eurozone Composite PMI Jul P 54 53.7 54.2

US Markit US Manufacturing PMI Jul P 53.6 53.8 53.6

US New Home Sales Jun 548000 482000 546000

7/24/2015 CH Caixin China PMI Mfg Jul P 49.7 48.2 49.4

US Durable Goods Orders (%) Jun 3.2 3.4 -1.8

US Durables Ex Transportation (%) Jun 0.5 0.8 0.5

US Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air (%) Jun 0.5 0.9 0.4

US Dallas Fed Manf. Activity Jul -3.5 -4.6 -7.0

EC M3 Money Supply YoY (%) Jun 5.1 5.0 5.0

7/28/2015 EC M3 3-month average (%) Jun 5.1 5.1 5.0

US Markit US Composite PMI Jul P -- 55.2 54.6

US Markit US Services PMI Jul P 55 55.2 54.8

US Consumer Confidence Index Jul 100 90.9 101.4

US Richmond Fed Manufact. Index Jul 7 13 6

7/29/2015 US MBA Mortgage Applications 24-Jul -- -- 0.1

US Pending Home Sales MoM (%) Jun 1.0 -- 0.9

US FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound) (%) 29-Jul 0.25% -- 0.25%

US GDP Annualized QoQ (%) 2Q A 2.50% -- -0.20%

US Personal Consumption (%) 2Q A 2.70% -- 2.10%

US GDP Price Index (%) 2Q A 1.50% -- 0%

US Core PCE QoQ (%) 2Q A 1.60% -- 0.80%

US Initial Jobless Claims (000's) 25-Jul 270000 -- 255000

US Continuing Claims (000's) 18-Jul 2.21E+06 -- 2.21E+06

US Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 26-Jul -- -- 42.4

7/30/2015 EC Consumer Confidence Jul F -7.1 -- -7.1

EC Unemployment Rate (%) Jun 11% -- 11.10%

EC CPI Estimate YoY (%) Jul 0.20% -- 0.20%

EC CPI Core YoY (%) Jul A 0.80% -- 0.80%

US Employment Cost Index (%) 2Q 0.60% -- 0.70%

US Chicago Purchasing Manager Jul 50.9 -- 49.4

7/31/2015 US U. of Mich. Sentiment Jul F 94 -- 93.3

8/1/2015 CH Manufacturing PMI Jul 50.2 -- 50.2

US Personal Income (%) Jun 0.40% -- 0.50%

US Personal Spending (%) Jun 0.20% -- 0.90%

US PCE Core MoM (%) Jun 0.20% -- 0.10%

US Markit US Manufacturing PMI Jul F -- -- 53.8

US Construction Spending MoM (%) Jun 0.70% -- 0.80%

US ISM Manufacturing Jul 53.5 -- 53.5

US ISM Prices Paid Jul 49.5 -- 49.5

ID Nikkei Indonesia PMI Mfg Jul -- -- 47.8

ID CPI NSA MoM (%) Jul -- -- 0.54%


Corporate Action

Code Price

Exercise Maturity Emiten Description

INVS-W 165 8-May-15 Inovisi Infracom WARAN SERI I INOVISI INFRACOM

SUGI-W 100 21-May-15 Sugih Energy WARAN SERI II SUGIH ENERGY

MCOR-W 200 10-Jul-15 Bank Windu Kentjana International WARAN SERI I BANK WINDU KENTJANA INTERNATIONAL

GAMA-W 105 16-Jul-15 Gading Development WARAN SERI I GADING DEVELOPMENT

SUPR-W 4800 28-Aug-15 Solusi Tunas Pratama WARAN SERI I SOLUSI TUNAS PRATAMA

NIRO-W 110 11-Sep-15 Nirvana Development WARAN SERI I NIRVANA DEVELOPMENT

BSIM-W 149 11-Dec-15 Bank Sinar Mas WARAN SERI I BANK SINAR MAS

Warrant


Statistics

-1.2

-1.8

-2.2

-3.3

-3.8

-4.1

-4.6

-4.8

-4.8

-6.4

ASII

BMRI

BBNI

BBCA

BBRI

GGRM

CPIN

AALI

BSDE

EXCL10.2

8.1

4.4

4.1

2.4

2.1

0.8

0.8

0.7

0.6

HERO

ADRO

JKON

ULTJ

PTBA

AKRA

MIKA

PGAS

TLKM

UNVR

344

293

252

162

148

144

135

99

70

67

- 200 400

BBRI

BBCA

BMRI

TLKM

SRIL

BBNI

SSMS

ASII

SIAP

SMGR

371

366

327

113

102

93

85

75

69

61

0 200 400

SIAP

ENRG

SRIL

META

PWON

ADRO

SUGI

TARA

SSMS

BRMS

8,139

8,039

7,129

6,264

5,653

5,529

5,427

4,987

4,978

4,789

BBNI

BBRI

SRIL

SSMS

MNCN

PWON

ADRO

TLKM

KLBF

BBCA

JCI Winners (%) JCI Losers (%) JCI Value (Rpbn) JCI Volume (mn Lot) JCI Freq (x)

YTD (Rp) -9.80% 4,547

YTD (USD) 21.55% 4,617

Moving Avg 20day 4,884 4,843

Moving Avg 50day 5,016 12.0

Moving Avg 200day 5,180 2.4%

Indonesia & Sectors +/- (%)YTD (%)

MSCI Indonesia 5,441.5 -228.0 -4.0 -12.2

JII 628.6 -18.3 -2.8 -9.0

LQ45 796.4 -31.9 -3.9 -11.4

JAKFIN Index 663.8 -15.9 -2.3 -9.3

JAKINFR Index 993.5 -2.3 -0.2 -14.4

JAKMINE Index 997.4 1.3 0.1 -27.1

JAKCONS Index 2,162.7 -8.7 -0.4 -0.7

JAKTRAD Index 906.3 -4.9 -0.5 3.2

JAKMIND Index 1,121.6 -10.3 -0.9 -14.2

JAKBIND Index 398.4 -7.2 -1.8 -26.7

JAKPROP Index 499.2 -8.5 -1.7 -4.9

JAKAGRI Index 1,933.6 -51.2 -2.6 -17.8

Commodities +/- (%)YTD (%)

CRB Index 204.4 1.7 0.84 -11.1

Oil & Gas

Brent Crude Oil (USD/bbl) 53.3 -0.2 -0.32 -7.0

Nymex Oil (USD/bbl) 48.0 0.6 1.24 -10.0

Natural Gas 2.8 0.0 1.15 -2.7

COAL (AUS Daily) 58.9 -0.4 -0.59 -5.1

Industrial Metals

Aluminum (USD/tonne) 1,627.8 17.3 1.07 -11.2

Nickel (USD/tonne) 11,325 295 2.67 -25.2

Tin (USD/tonne) 16,150 455 2.90 -16.8

Precious Metal

Gold (USD/t oz.) 1,096.2 -0.2 -0.02 -7.4

Silver (USD/t oz.) 14.6 0.0 0.25 -6.1

Soft Commodities

CPO (Malaysia - Rm/tonne) 2,138 -7.0 -0.33 -6.7

Rubber (JPY/kg) 1,551 -25.8 -1.64 -5.6

Corn (USD/bu.) 375 2.0 0.54 -5.5

Wheat (USD/bu.) 511 8.3 1.64 -13.4

Soybeans (USD/bu.) 975 13.5 1.40 -4.3

Volume (m)

Value (Rpbn)

Mkt Cap (Rptr)

Market 2015 P/E (x)

Market Div. Yield (%)

CPO (Malaysia - Rm/tonne)

Indices Region +/- (%) YT D (%)

MXWO MSCI Word 1,747.1 13.48 0.78 2.19

SPX S&P 500 2,093.3 25.61 1.24 1.67

US

17,630.3 189.7 1.09 -1.08

Nasdaq US 5,089.2 49.43 0.98 7.46

Europe

EURO 50 Europe 390.0 4.11 1.07 13.87

FTSE London 6,555.3 50.15 0.77 -0.16

DAX Jerman 11,173.9 117.5 1.06 13.95

CAC France 4,977.3 49.72 1.01 16.49

SMI Swiss 9,275.7 81.24 0.88 3.25

BRIC

BOVESPA Brazil 49,601.6 866 1.78 -0.81

MICEX Russia 1,604.5 19.58 1.24 14.89

SENSEX India 27,459.2 -102.2 -0.37 -0.15

NIFTY India 8,337.0 -24.0 -0.29 0.66

SHCOMP China 3,663.0 -62.56 -1.68 13.24

SZCOMP China 2,111.7 -48.39 -2.24 49.22

Nikkei Japan 20,328.9 -21.2 -0.10 16.49

TPX Japan 1,629.5 -8.44 -0.52 15.77

HSI Hong kong 24,503.9 152 0.62 3.81

KOSPI S.Korea 2,039.1 0.29 0.01 6.45

TAIEX Taiwan 8,582.5 25.8 0.30 -7.79

FSSTI Singapore 3,281.1 -32.33 -0.98 -2.50

ASEAN

SET Thailand 1,408.1 -4.48 -0.32 -5.98

PCOMP Philipines 7,479.0 -68.4 -0.91 3.44

KLCI Malaysia 1,699.7 -10.06 -0.59 -3.50

VNINDEX Vietnam 631.5 -3.99 -0.63 15.74

Developed ASIA

Dow Jones Industrial

Kurs Region +/- (%) YT D (%)

USDEUR Euro 0.904 0.002 0.3 13.0

USDGBP UK 0.641 -0.002 -0.3 6.7

USDCHF Switzerland 0.963 -0.000 -0.0 -3.8

USDCAD Canada 1.292 -0.012 -0.9 7.7

USDAUD Australia 1.363 -0.013 -0.9 13.6

USDNZD New Zealand 1.494 -0.020 -1.3 14.9

USDJPY Japan 123.56 0.310 0.3 3.1

USDCNY China 6.21 (0.00) -0.0 0.2

USDHKD Hongkong 7.751 -0.000 -0.0 -0.6

USDSGD Singapore 1.364 -0.005 -0.4 4.9

Rupiah Indonesia 13,465 2.0 0.0 8.7

JCI 4,714.8 (56.5) -1.2%


Historical Technical Trading Ideas (1)

Ticker Last Technical Call 27-Jul-15 Chg (%) Recommendation

JCI 4,857 Weakening

4,771 -1.76% Correct

MNCN 1,945 Buy

2,050 5.40% Correct

BMTR 1,155 Buy

1,160 0.43% Correct

GGRM 51,000 Buy

50,000 -1.96% Incorrect

JSMR 5,900 Buy

5,650 -4.24% Incorrect

ICBP 12,425 Sell

12,200 -1.81% Correct

BBCA 13,725 Sell

13,450 -2.00% Correct


JCI 4,903 Profit taking

4,857 -0.94% Correct

PTPP 4,175 Buy


GGRM 53,650 Buy

51,000 -4.94% Incorrect

ASRI 535 Buy

515 -3.74% Incorrect

ADRO 595 Buy


ICBP 12,475 Sell

12,425 -0.40% Correct

MPPA 2,990 Sell

2,955 -1.17% Correct


JCI 4,907 Strenghtening


GGRM 52,000 Buy

53,650 3.17% Correct

UNTR 18,375 Buy

18,650 1.50% Correct

TLKM 2,865 Buy


PWON 440 Buy


ASRI 530 Buy

535 0.94% Correct

ADHI 2,760 Buy



JCI 4,870 Reebound

4,907 0.76% Correct

GGRM 49,550 Buy

52,000 4.94% Correct

TLKM 2,825 Buy

2,865 1.42% Correct

INCO 2,525 Buy


AALI 24,975 Buy

24,350 -2.50% Incorrect

ADHI 2,730 Buy

2,760 1.10% Correct

PTPP 4,010 Sell

4,040 0.75% Incorrect




PGAS 4,240 Buy


GGRM 49,000 Buy


BBNI 5,300 Buy


BBRI 10,500 Buy

10,125 -3.57% Incorrect

KLBF 1,695 Buy

1,695 0.00% Correct

ADHI 2,635 Sell






4,902 0.16% Correct

PGAS 4,085 Buy

4,240 3.79% Correct

BBCA 13,500 Buy

13,600 0.74% Correct

UNTR 19,200 Buy

19,300 0.52% Correct

ADHI 2,500 Buy

2,635 5.40% Correct

GGRM 47,600 Buy

49,000 2.94% Correct

INCO 2,490 Sell



JCI 4,859 Reebound

4,894 0.72% Correct

BWPT 407 Buy


ADRO 635 Buy


BBCA 13,300 Buy

13,500 1.50% Correct

BSDE 1,785 Buy

1,865 4.48% Correct

MPPA 3,050 Buy

3,085 1.15% Correct

SRIL 411 Sell

398 -3.16% Correct


JCI 4,838 Reebound

4,859 0.43% Correct

BBRI 10,300 Buy

10,475 1.70% Correct

BWPT 411 Buy


MPPA 2,860 Buy

3,050 6.64% Correct

LSIP 1,565 Buy

1,590 1.60% Correct

WIKA 2,985 Buy

3,095 3.69% Correct

ADHI 2,285 Buy

2,380 4.16% Correct


JCI 4,872 Weakening

4,838 -0.68% Correct

BSDE 1,720 Buy

1,720 0.00% Correct

TELE 950 Buy

950 0.00% Correct

TAXI 1,030 Buy


KLBF 1,655 Buy


BMRI 9,950 Sell

9,900 -0.50% Correct

JSMR 5,875 Sell

5,700 -2.98% Correct


JCI 4,906 Rebound


BBRI 10,475 Buy

10,225 -2.39% Incorrect

BBNI 5,550 Buy


SMRA 1,775 Buy


WSKT 1,720 Buy

1,775 3.20% Correct

PTPP 3,880 Buy

3,955 1.93% Correct

ASRI 565 Buy




JCI 4,917 Weakening

4,906 -0.22% Correct

AALI 25,825 Buy

25,950 0.48% Correct

LSIP 1,655 Buy


TLKM 2,930 Buy


ASRI 550 Buy

565 2.73% Correct

GJTL 860 Buy


ASII 7,000 Buy



JCI 4,983 Weakening

4,917 -1.33% Correct

AALI 25,500 Buy

25,825 1.27% Correct

LSIP 1,660 Buy


TLKM 2,930 Buy


ASRI 575 Buy


GJTL 850 Buy

860 1.18% Correct

ASII 7,050 Buy




4,983 0.77% Correct

LSIP 1,585 Buy


AALI 25,000 Buy

25,500 2.00% Correct

BBNI 5,575 Buy


BBRI 10,875 Buy

10,825 -0.46% Incorrect

PTPP 3,690 Buy


ANTM 675 Sell

675 0.00% Correct

Ticker Last Technical Call 2-Jun-15 Chg (%) Recommendation


5,214 0.00% Correct

LSIP 1,710 Buy

1,710 0.00% Correct

TLKM 2,845 Buy

2,845 0.00% Correct

KLBF 1,790 Buy


UNVR 43,200 Buy


GGRM 47,000 Sell


GIAA 485 Sell

485 0.00% Correct



4,904 -0.13% Correct

ASII 7,075 Buy

7,025 -0.71% Correct

TLKM 2,930 Buy

2,920 -0.34% Correct

GGRM 45,100 Buy

45,025 -0.17% Correct

BBNI 5,300 Buy

5,300 0.00% Correct

BBRI 10,350 Buy


PGAS 4,315 Sell





JCI 4,883 Reebond

4,911 0.58% Correct

ASII 6,875 Buy

7,075 2.91% Correct

AALI 22,650 Buy

22,950 1.32% Correct

BMRI 10,025 Buy

10,050 0.25% Correct

BBNI 5,250 Buy

5,300 0.95% Correct

ADHI 2,015 Spec Buy

2,020 0.25% Correct

PTPP 3,525 Spec Buy



JCI 4,883 Weakining


GGRM 43,800 Buy

43,800 2.91% Correct

UNTR 20,200 Buy

20,200 1.32% Correct

TLKM 2,905 Buy

2,905 0.25% Correct

ASRI 580 Buy

580 0.95% Correct

SSMS 1,850 Buy

1,850 0.25% Correct

AALI 22,650 Buy

22,650 -1.56% Incorrect




JSMR 5,650 Sell

5,550 -1.77% Correct

ERAA 600 Sell

595 -0.83% Correct

BWPT 418 Sell

418 0.00% Correct

BKSL 100 Buy

99 -1.00% Incorrect

BBNI 5,500 Buy


BBRI 10,300 Sell

10,200 -0.97% Correct


JCI 4,938 Correction

4,954 0.32% Correct

JSMR 5,650 Buy

5,650 0.00% Correct

ERAA 600 Buy

600 0.00% Correct

UNTR 20,325 Buy

20,225 -0.49% Incorrect

BWPT 419 Buy


BKSL 96 Buy

100 4.17% Correct

GGRM 45,950 Sell

45,300 -1.41% Correct



4,938 -0.44% Correct

ICBP 12,975 Buy

12,900 -0.58% Correct

BWPT 378 Buy

419 10.85% Correct

RALS 710 Buy

705 -0.70% Correct

AISA 1,805 Buy

1,815 0.55% Correct

MPPA 3,260 Buy

3,285 0.77% Correct

BBNI 5,600 Sell

5,575 -0.45% Correct


Research Team

Sebastian Tobing, CFA

Head of Research & Institutional Business

([email protected])

Gina Novrina Nasution, CSA

Technical Analyst

([email protected])

Paula Ruth

Equity Analyst

([email protected])

Angga Aditya Assaf

Equity Analyst

([email protected])

Willinoy Sitorus

Equity Analyst

([email protected])

M. Dian Octiana

Equity Analyst

([email protected])

Wisnu Budhiargo

Equity Analyst

([email protected])

Tim Alamsyah

Equity Analyst

([email protected])

Dini Agmivia Anggraeni

Fixed Income/Macro Analyst

([email protected])

Yeni Simanjuntak

On-the-ground Analyst

([email protected])

Rovandi

Research Associate

([email protected])

Institutional Sales Team

Daniel Dwi Seputro

Head of Institutional Equity Sales

([email protected])

Dewi Yusnita

Equity Institutional Sales

([email protected])

Meitawati


([email protected])

Fachruly Fiater


([email protected])

Henry Sidarta


([email protected])

Raditya Andyono


([email protected])

Nancy Pardede


([email protected])

Retail Sales Team

JAKARTA AREA

Nathanael Benny Prasetyo

Head of Retail ECM

([email protected])

Ariawan Anwar

Artha Graha, Jakarta

([email protected])

Windra Djulnaily

Pluit, Jakarta

([email protected])

Ferry Zabur

Kelapa Gading, Jakarta

([email protected])

Eddy Sumarli

Puri Kencana, Jakarta

([email protected])

Very Wijaya

BSD, Tangerang

([email protected])

SUMATERA

Juliana Effendy

Medan, Sumatera Utara

([email protected])

Tantie Rivi Watie

Pekanbaru, Riau

([email protected])

Nathanael Benny Prasetyo

Palembang, Sumatera Selatan

([email protected])

EAST INDONESIA

Sonny Muljadi

Surabaya, Jawa Timur

([email protected]

Ni Made Dwi Hapsari Wijayanti

Denpasar, Bali

([email protected])

Ivan Jaka Perdana

Malang, Jawa Timur

([email protected])

Arifin Pribadi

Makasar, Sulawesi Selatan

([email protected])

CENTRAL JAVA, AREA

Agus Bambang Suseno

Solo, Jawa Tengah

([email protected])

Mariana Kusuma Wati

Semarang, Jawa Tengah

[email protected])

WEST JAVA

Asep Saepudin

Bandung, Jawa Barat

([email protected])

Ariffianto

Cirebon, Jawa Barat

([email protected])

PT Trimegah Securities Tbk

Gedung Artha Graha 18th Floor

Jl. Jend. Sudirman Kav. 52-53

Jakarta 12190, Indonesia

t. +62-21 2924 9088

f. +62-21 2924 9150

www.trimegah.com

DISCLAIMER

This report has been prepared by PT Trimegah Securities Tbk on behalf of itself and its affiliated companies and is provided for information

purposes only. Under no circumstances is it to be used or considered as an offer to sell, or a solicitation of any offer to buy. This report has

been produced independently and the forecasts, opinions and expectations contained herein are entirely those of Trimegah Securities.

While all reasonable care has been taken to ensure that information contained herein is not untrue or misleading at the time of publication,

Trimegah Securities makes no representation as to its accuracy or completeness and it should not be relied upon as such. This report is

provided solely for the information of clients of Trimegah Securities who are expected to make their own investment decisions without reliance

on this report. Neither Trimegah Securities nor any officer or employee of Trimegah Securities accept any liability whatsoever for any direct or

consequential loss arising from any use of this report or its contents. Trimegah Securities and/or persons connected with it may have acted

upon or used the information herein contained, or the research or analysis on which it is based, before publication. Trimegah Securities may in

future participate in an offering of the company’s equity securities.

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