trim daily - trimegah · pt trimegah securities tbk - trim daily 1 untr (buy, tp 22000) published...

TRIM DAILY PT Trimegah Securities Tbk - www.trimegah.com 1

UNTR (Buy, TP 22000) published Feb 15operational data: we expect volume

concerns to re-surface on paltry 26% YoY growth of heavy equipment volume

and 19% YoY growth in overburden removal. PTPP (Sell, TP 3500): good

launching of Barclay North towers in Grand Kamala Lagoon Bekasi, sold out

in 4 hours at IDR12.5mn, a 25% increase over first launching last year

(albeit still at discount to IDR15mn market price. RAJA (Buy, TP 2200):

Itochu has invested USD12.7mn for 33% of RAJA’s subsidiary, likely to build

gas power plants as RAJA integrates down the value chain, positive.

TRIM Daily

TRIM Highlights

Mar 24, 2015

Jakarta Composite Index (JCI) down by 6 poin or 0.11% to 5,437 yesterday. Index movers were mostly driven by property, construction and infrastruc-ture. Total transaction value was Rp5.7tr. IDX recorded RP394bn net sell by foreign investors. JCI today is expected to continue its weakening trend and trade in 5412-5468 range.

Technical Market View

U.S reported improvement in home sales, grew 1.2% MoM in February after decline by -4.9% MoM in the previous month. Therefore, total home sales as of February reached 4.88mn vs 4.82mn in January.

Global Wrap

Technical analysis: trading picks

JCI 5,437.1

Global Indices

Reksa Dana Trimegah Asset Management

Dual Listing (NYSE) Others

(USD) (Rp) Chg %

44.6 14,529 0.10 0.2TLKM

Change -0.11%

Transaction Volume (m) 7,520

Transaction Value (Rpbn) 5,703

Mkt Cap (Rptr) 5,425

Market 2015 P/E (x) 14.3

Market Div. Yield (%) 2.4%

Price Chg %

Dow Jones 18,116.0 -11.6 -0.1

Nasdaq 5,011.0 -15.4 -0.3

Nikkei 19,754.4 194.1 1.0

ST Times 3,410.1 -2.3 -0.1

FTSE 7,037.7 15.2 0.2

Hang Seng 24,494.5 119.3 0.5

NAB Chg %

Trim Kapital 9,666.3 -38 -0.4

Trim Kapital + 3,490.1 -21.7 -0.6

Trim Syariah SHM 1,725.5 -7.5 -0.4

Tram Consumption +1,556.8 -4.3 -0.3

Trim Komb 2 2,107.3 -9.8 -0.5

Trim Syariah B 2,447.9 -8.0 -0.3

Trim Dana Stabil 2,219.7 2.5 0.1

Trim Dana Tetap 2 1,782.6 4.4 0.2

Tram PDPT USD 1.1 0.0 0.1

Tram Reguler INC 994.7 0.0 0.0

Tram Strategic Fund 1,194.4 4.4 0.4

Trim Kas 2 1,149.2 0.7 0.1

Chg %

USD IDR 13,022 -102 -0.8

10 yr Indo Govr bond (%) 7.35 -0.1 -1.1

10 yr US govt bond (%) 1.9 -0.01 -0.3

Spread (%) 5.43 -0.08 -0.9

EIDO 27.3 -0.0 -0.2

Foreign YtD (USDmn) 556 -30 -5

Stock Price Rating Reason

ADRO 970 Buy

Stochastic oscillator indicates oversold and will form a golden cross, in our view. ADRO is a Speculative Buy with today’s range of 945-995

PTBA 10475 Buy We expect the stock to form a technical re-bound at today’s range of 10225-10750

UNVR 38625 Buy

UNVR remains on the long term bullish pat-tern. Despite the recent open white candle formation, stochastic oscillator will form a golden cross, in our view. Thus, UNVR is a Speculative Buy with today’s range of 38350-39900

BBTN 1140 Sell

MACD indicates positive signal of a potential technical rebound for BBTN. BBTN’s today trading range is around 1100-1165.

BMRI 12175 Sell

BMRI is a long term bullish and we ex-pect the stock to rebound at the range of 11,850 - 12,300 as it formed a star pattern yesterday

BJBR 930 Sell

Stochastic and RSI indicators indicates fur-ther upward movement for ASII with support-resistance level at 7,000 - 7,350.

PT Trimegah Securities Tbk - www.trimegah.com TRIM DAILY 2

News of the Day

UNTR: slight MoM improvement, still lower YoY

UNTR reported 275 heavy equipment unit sales in Feb15, up

13% MoM but down 26% YoY. Mining contractor division

overburden removal up 8% MoM but down 19% YoY. Alt-

hough UNTR has proven in its recently published 4Q result

that it is able to maintain strong margins, YTD trend clearly

points toward volume falling this year. We have a Buy on

UNTR with IDR 22,000 target price.

BBRI: targets 20% YoY consumer loan growth this

year

Some banks are optimistic that consumer loans to grow by

20% as the economic growth is improving. One of them is

BBRI, who is targeting 20% YoY consumer loan growth this

year in its periodic Bank Business Plan (RBB). BBRI has also

lowered consumer lending rates by 50bps to support the loan

g r o w t h . S o u r c e : B i s n i s I n d o n e s i a

([email protected])

BMRI: ready to provide KUR again this year

The largest state-owned lender, BMRI, is ready to provide

KUR again this year along with its SOE peers, BBRI and

BBNI. Finance and Strategy Director, Pahala Mansury, men-

tioned that there will be a special program to fulfil the KUR

loans (retail and micro) targets determined by the govern-

ment. As an information, BMRI has provided Rp17.5tr KUR

loans since 2007, or the second biggest KUR lender after BBRI

which has provided Rp115.6tr. Source: Bisnis Indonesia

([email protected])

BBTN: targets 20% growth in wealth management busi-

ness

The state-owned lender, BBTN, targets a 20% growth in

wealth management business by focusing on priority banking

services. Until now, the company reported Rp11tr funds man-

aged under its wealth management business with 11,000

c u s t o m e r s . S o u r c e : B i s n i s I n d o n e s i a

([email protected])

WIKA: There are 31 projects worth Rp12.8tr will com-

plete this year

On WIKA’s pipeline, there are 31 projects targeted to complete

this year with value totaling Rp12.8tr. Several of the projects

are: Terminal 3 in Soetta Airport with total project value of

Rp1.8tr, and Matindok Project with value Rp1.7tr, while the

others are below Rp1.0tr worth project. Source: Bisnis Indone-

sia.

Comment:

The 31 projects are included in WIKA’s carry over contract and

are expected to contribute 78% of FY15 revenues target,

which stands at Rp16.4tr (+31.8% YoY). We have a Hold

recommendation on WIKA with TP: Rp3400. WIKA is traded at

28.1x 2015 PE. ([email protected])

SRIL: 2015E revenue of 7%YoY

SRIL revised down this year’s revenue target to 7%YoY

(previously 12%YoY in IDR) as it changes its company’s re-

porting currency from IDR to USD and limitation on production

capacity. Revenue in USD contributes 70%, with remaining in

IDR. Source: Bisnis Indonesia ([email protected])

CTRA: CitraGarden Aneka Pontianak reached 70% pre-

sales.

PT Ciputra Residence, subsidiery of CTRA sold 70% of 220

units in CitraGarden Aneka Pontianak. Rp. 3.6billion most

sought after type. Phase 2 with 388 units to be launched early

2 0 1 6 . S o u r c e : B i s n i s I n d o n e s i a

([email protected])


News of the Day

PWON: Projected revenue 5.4% above expectation,

28.72% YoY growth.

2014’s revenue projected at Rp. 3.9tr, 5.4% above initial

target, 28.72% YoY growth. 2015 revenue estimated at Rp.

4.6 – 5tr. 2015 marketing sales aimed at Rp. 3.4tr, 9.67%

above over presales figure. Currently developing Tunjungan

Plaza 5 (includes The Peak, Pakuwon Tower office, Four

Points Hotel; to finish construction by end 2015), Tunjungan

Plaza 6(finish construction by end 2016), Grand Pakuwon

City and Kota Kasablanka 2 (ground clearing phase, estimat-

ed operational by 2018). PWON preparing new 4.5ha project

in TB Simatupang, first phase consisting 2 office towers and

2 condominium towers. Source: Bisnis Indonesia

([email protected])

SSMS: Net income 2014 grew by 17% YoY; higher

than consensus estimate

Sawit Sumbermas Sarana (SSMS) booked 2014 net income

at Rp738bn, grew by +16.8% YoY (FY13: Rp632bn); higher

than consensus estimates (116). Revenues in 2014 up by

+11.1% YoY to Rp2.2tr (FY13: Rp2.0tr). SSMS booked

better gross margin at 52.9% vs. 51.6% in FY13, while

interest income jumped more than thrice to Rp138bn (FY13:

Rp39bn) and interest expenses dropped -32%% YoY to

Rp84bn (FY13: Rp124bn). SSMS time deposit as of Dec’14

stood at Rp1.4tr while cash at Rp157bn compared to previ-

ous year, in which time deposit stood at Rp366bn and cash

a t R p 9 2 9 b n . S o u r c e : B i s n i s I n d o n e s i a

([email protected])

TLKM: Telkomsel aiming for 3mn of 4G subscribers

this year

Telkomsel targets 3mn 4G LTE subsctribers this year. After

launching 4G LTE in Surabaya, Telkomsel will expand the

service to Malang, Semarang, Balikpapan, Batam, and will

be continued to other cities as well. Telkomsel targets 4G

market segment for young people (creative industry) and

professionals, but the market segment will move to whole

market if 4G supported handset price are under Rp1mn.

Source: Bisnis Indonesia ([email protected])

SUPR: seek for USD350mn loans from foreign banks

A telecommunication tower company, SUPR, is going to

obtain USD350mn loans from foreign banks for refinancing

purpose. The loans itself will be obtained from the bridge

loan facilities amounting USD790mn, of which the remaining

undisbursed facility in USD350mn. The tenor and interest

rates are undisclosed. Source: Investor Daily

([email protected])

RAJA: Itochu invests USD12.7mn for 33% of subsidiary

Itochu, a Japanese company, has subscribed 33% of PT

Triguna Internusa Pratama (TIP) rights issue for USD12.7mn.

TIP is RAJA’s subsidiary. Source: Company

PTPP: 700 Barclay Grand Kamala Lagoon condominium

units sold in 4 hours, netting Rp. 300bn.

700 of 2000 units of PT PP Properti’s Rp.500bn project sold,

60% bought by investors. North tower being sold public, south

tower scheduled to launch in July 2015. Unit price starting at

Rp.300mn (24sq.m). Development to include retail area, to be

launched by end 2015. PT PP Properti booked Rp.1.3tr in 2014

marketing sales, 18% above initial target. Projecting Rp.2.3tr

2015 marketing sales. Scheduled to IPO in May 2015. Source:

investor daily

Comment:

Price per sq.m at Rp.12.5 – 13mn per sq.m, slightly below

market price of approx Rp.15mn per sq.m.

([email protected])


Table

Indo Market PE vs Regional (Weekly)

Indo Market PE vs 10yr Bond Yield

Oil Price (Brent), Coal Price (Newcastle), Gold

Foreign Fund Flow in last 5 & 30 days

5yr Bond Yield Indo (USD) vs US Bond Yield

CPO Price, Soybean Price (both 1m Futures)

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

16.0

18.0

20.0

22.0

2010

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

(x)

Weekly Hang Seng Singapore Thailand Philippines Malaysia Indonesia

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

Mar-14

Apr-14

Apr-14

May-14

May-14

May-14

Jun-14

Jun-14

Jul-

14

Jul-

14

Aug-14

Aug-14

Sep-14

Sep-14

Oct-

14

Oct-

14

Oct-

14

Nov-14

Nov-14

Dec-14

Dec-14

Jan-15

Jan-15

Feb-15

Feb-15

Mar-15

Mar-15

(%) Bond Yield US Ind 5yr Bond Yield Indo in USD

-124

19

1,429

55

-5

349

8 80

3,049

-91

28

3,343

(500)

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

IND

ON

ESIA

PH

ILIP

PIN

ES

SO

UTH

KO

REA

TH

AIL

AN

D

VIE

TN

AM

IND

IA

(USDmn) 5 Days 30 Days

500

700

900

1,100

1,300

1,500

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

Mar-

14

Apr-

14

May-14

May-14

Jun-1

4

Jul-

14

Jul-

14

Aug-14

Sep-1

4

Sep-1

4

Oct-

14

Nov-1

4

Dec-14

Dec-14

Jan-15

Feb-15

Feb-15

Mar-

15

(USD/ Troy oz.)(USD)

Brent Crude Oil (bbl) (LHS) Coal (mt) (LHS) Gold (RHS)

500

700

900

1,100

1,300

1,500

1,700

-

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

Mar-

14

Apr-

14

May-14

Jun-1

4

Jul-

14

Aug-14

Sep-1

4

Oct-

14

Nov-1

4

Dec-14

Jan-15

Feb-15

(USD Bushels)(MYR Tons)

CPO Malaysia (LHS) Soybean (RHS)

6.0

6.5

7.0

7.5

8.0

8.5

9.0

12.0

12.5

13.0

13.5

14.0

14.5

15.0

Mar-

14

Apr-

14

May-

14

Jun-

14

Jul-

14

Aug-

14

Sep-

14

Oct-

14

Nov-

14

Dec-

14

Jan-

15

Feb-

15

Mar-

15

(%)(X) JCI PE (LHS) Indo 10Yr Bond Yield (RHS)


Table

INCO, ANTM vs Nickel price (LME)

Coal Price (Newcastle) vs Coal Sector

TINS vs Tin price (LME)

ANTM vs Gold price

CPO Price (1m Futures in Malaysia) vs CPO Sector

GIAA vs Brent Crude Oil

150

175

200

225

250

275

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

Mar-

14

Apr-

14

May-14

Jun-1

4

Jul-

14

Aug-14

Sep-1

4

Oct-

14

Nov-1

4

Dec-14

Jan-15

Feb-15

(USD/MT)

Coal (LHS) COAL Sector (RHS)

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

95

1,500

1,700

1,900

2,100

2,300

2,500

2,700

2,900

Mar-14

Apr-14

May-14

May-14

Jun-14

Jul-

14

Jul-

14

Aug-14

Sep-14

Sep-14

Oct-

14

Nov-14

Dec-14

Dec-14

Jan-15

Feb-15

Feb-15

Mar-15

(MYR / Ton)

CPO Malaysia (LHS) CPO Sector (RHS)

-

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

-

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

5,000

Mar-

14

Apr-

14

May-14

May-14

Jun-1

4

Jul-

14

Jul-

14

Aug-14

Sep-1

4

Sep-1

4

Oct-

14

Nov-1

4

Dec-14

Dec-14

Jan-15

Feb-15

Feb-15

Mar-

15

(USD /MT)(Rp)

INCO (LHS) ANTM (LHS) Nickel LME (RHS)

500

600

700

800

900

1,000

1,100

1,200

1,300

1,400

500

600

700

800

900

1,000

1,100

1,200

1,300

1,400

Mar-14

Apr-14

May-14

May-14

Jun-14

Jul-

14

Jul-

14

Aug-14

Sep-1

4

Sep-1

4

Oct-

14

Nov-14

Dec-14

Dec-14

Jan-15

Feb-15

Feb-15

Mar-15

(USD troy oz.)(Rp) ANTM (LHS) Gold (RHS)

15,000

16,000

17,000

18,000

19,000

20,000

21,000

22,000

23,000

24,000

25,000

500

700

900

1,100

1,300

1,500

1,700

Mar-14

Apr-

14

May-14

May-14

Jun-14

Jul-

14

Jul-

14

Aug-14

Sep-14

Sep-14

Oct-

14

Nov-1

4

Dec-14

Dec-14

Jan-15

Feb-15

Feb-15

Mar-15

(USD/MT)(Rp) TINS (LHS) Tin LME (RHS)

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

300

350

400

450

500

550

600

650

700

Mar-14

Apr-14

May-14

May-14

Jun-1

4

Jul-

14

Jul-

14

Aug-14

Sep-14

Sep-14

Oct-

14

Nov-14

Dec-14

Dec-14

Jan-15

Feb-15

Feb-15

Mar-15

(USD bbl)(Rp)

GIAA (LHS) Crude Oil Brent (RHS)


World Economic Calendar

Date Time Country Event Period Survey Actual Prior

3/18/2015 US MBA Mortgage Applica�ons 13-Mar -- -3.9 -1.3

3/19/2015 US FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound) (%) 18-Mar 0.25 0.25 0.25

US Current Account Balance (USD bn) 4Q 104.1 113.5 100.3

US Ini�al Jobless Claims (000's) 14-Mar 293 291 289

US Con�nuing Claims (000's) 7-Mar 2400 2417 2418

US Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 15-Mar -- 44.2 43.3

US Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Mar 7 5 5.2

US Leading Index Feb 0.2 0.2 0.2

3/23/2015 US Chicago Fed Nat Ac�vity Index Feb 0.1 -0.11 0.13

US Exis�ng Home Sales MoM (mn) Feb 4.9 4.88 4.82

EC Consumer Confidence Mar A -6 -3.7 -6.7

3/24/2015 US CPI MoM (%) Feb 0.2 -- -0.7

US CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM (%) Feb 1.6 -- 1.6

US CPI YoY (%) Feb -0.1 -- -0.1

US FHFA House Price Index MoM (%) Jan 0.5 -- 0.8

US Markit US Manufacturing PMI Mar P 55.3 -- 55.1

US New Home Sales (000's) Feb 475 -- 481

US Richmond Fed Manufact. Index Mar 3 -- 0

EC Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Mar P 51.5 -- 51

EC Markit Eurozone Services PMI Mar P 53.9 -- 53.7

EC Markit Eurozone Composite PMI Mar P 53.6 -- 53.3

CH HSBC China Manufacturing PMI Mar P 50.5 -- 50.7

3/25/2015 US MBA Mortgage Applica�ons 20-Mar 0.6 -- --

US Durable Goods Orders Feb 0.6 -- 2.8

US Durables Ex Transporta�on Feb 0.5 -- 0.3

3/26/2015 US Ini�al Jobless Claims (000's) 21-Mar 290 -- 291

US Con�nuing Claims (000's) 14-Mar 2395 -- 2417

US Markit US Composite PMI Mar P -- -- 57.2

US Markit US Services PMI Mar P 57 -- 57.1

US Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 22-Mar -- -- 44.2

EC M3 Money Supply YoY (%) Feb 4.3 -- 4.1

EC M3 3-month average (%) Feb 4 -- 3.6

ID Money Supply M2 YoY Feb -- -- 12.5

ID Money Supply M1 YoY Feb -- -- 8.8

3/27/2015 US GDP Annualized QoQ 4Q T 2.4 -- 2.2

US Personal Consump�on 4Q T -- -- 4.2

US GDP Price Index 4Q T 0.1 -- 0.1

US Core PCE QoQ 4Q T -- -- 1.1

US U. of Mich. Sen�ment Mar F 92 -- 91.2

3/30/2015 US Personal Income Feb -- -- 0.3

US Personal Spending Feb -- -- -0.2

US Pending Home Sales MoM Feb -- -- 1.7

US Dallas Fed Manf. Ac�vity Mar -- -- -11.2

EC Consumer Confidence Mar F -- -- --


Result FY14

Date Ticker

Net

profit

(Rpbn) YoY

TRIM

est.

(Rpbn)

Cons.

(Rpbn)

% of

TRIM

% of

Cons.

Rec

Comment

1 17-Mar-15 ACST 105 5% 119 106 88.2% 98.4% In-line Revenus grew by +33% YoY, booked lower gross margin

2 17-Mar-15 WIKA 615 8% 641 621 96.0% 99.1% In-line Revenues grew by +5% YoY, income fr JO grew by +42% YoY, while interest exp grew triple

3 10-Mar-15 SMCB 668 -30% 934 71.6% Below Higher COS and Operating exp due to higher electricity cost and fuel price

4 10-Mar-15 WTON 329 36% 300 307 109.3% 107.0% Above Revenues grow by 24% YoY

5 4-Mar-15 BTPN 1,853 66% 1,701 1,695 91.8% 91.5% Below

The company reported stable

NPL at 0.7% (-10bps q-o-q,

+3bps y-o-y) supported by de-

clining NPL in micro segment.

6 4-Mar-15 MPPA 505 72% 593 582 117.5% 115.3% Above Supported by margin expansion

by 130bps to 3.7%.

7 3-Mar-15 SMGR 5,566 4% 5,541 5,628 100.5% 98.9% In-line

Strong revenue growth at

+10.1% YoY. Gross margins

dropped to 43% (FY13: 44.7%),

while op. margin reached 25.8%

(FY13: 28.5%)

8 3-Mar-15 PTPP 532 26% 534 517 99.7% 103.0% In-line

Revenus grew by +6.6%YoY,

higher gross margin at 12.3%

(FY13: 10.9%)

9 3-Mar-15 TBIG 924 -34% 793 595 85.8% 64.4% In-line

Last year, the company booked

net other income of Rp366 bn

(vs. FY2013 -36bn), including

forex loss of Rp192bn (FY2013 -

799bn)

10 25-Feb-15 AALI 2,490 21% 2,114 2,458 84.9% 98.7% In-line

11 25-Feb-15 ADHI 324 -20% 415 295 78.1% 109.8% Below

Negative revenus growth by -

12% YoY, lower income from JO,

and higher interest exp

12 25-Feb-15 WSKT 502 36% 486 422 103.1% 119.0% In-line Income fr JO grew double to

Rp197bn vs. Rp102bn

13 24-Feb-15 ARNA 259 1% 226 87.3% Below

14 24-Feb-15 ITMG 2,533 -17% 2,718 2,325 93.2% 91.8% Below

15 17-Feb-15 LPPF 1,419 23% 1,419 1,376 100.0% 97.0% In-line

LPPF still booked 10.7% SSSG.

We noted a declining bank loans

by 57% YoY to Rp689bn, result-

ing to a -17% interest expense.

16 12-Feb-15 BMRI 19,872 9% 18,978 19,951 95.5% 100.4% In-line

Supported by 17.3% yoy growth

in net interest income but lower

loan growth than industry.

17 6-Feb-15 JSMR 1,403 5% 1,249 1,263 89.0% 90.0% Below

Negative revenues growth

due to lower revenues from

construction, while revenues

from toll road up by +14.5%

YoY


Result FY14 (Cont’d 1)

Date Ticker

Net

profit

(Rpbn) YoY

TRIM

est.

(Rpbn)

Cons.

(Rpbn)

% of

TRIM

% of

Cons.

Rec

Comment

18 30-Jan-15 BBNI 10,783 19% 10,923 11,430 101.3% 106.0% In-line Backed by 13.5% yoy growth in

non interest income

19 30-Jan-15 BDMN 2,604 -37% 1,474 2,211 56.6% 84.9% Below

There was a Rp306bn restructur-

ing cost and flat net interest

income growth

20 27-Jan-15 BBRI 24,197 14% 24,366 24,487 100.7% 101.2% In-line

Backed by 26.5% yoy growth in

interest income and 12% growth

in fee & other operating income

21 27-Jan-15 SMBR 328 5% 375 408 87.4% 80.4% Below

Flattish revenue growth at 4.0%

YoY, due to stagnant sales vol-

ume. Booked high interest in-

come at Rp151bn.


Corporate Action

Code Price

Exercise Maturity Emiten Description

BEST-W 200 10-Apr-15 Bekasi Fajar Industrial Estate WARAN SERI I BEKASI FAJAR INDUSTRIAL ESTATE

INVS-W 165 8-May-15 Inovisi Infracom WARAN SERI I INOVISI INFRACOM

SUGI-W 100 21-May-15 Sugih Energy WARAN SERI II SUGIH ENERGY

MCOR-W 200 10-Jul-15 Bank Windu Kentjana International WARAN SERI I BANK WINDU KENTJANA INTERNATIONAL

GAMA-W 105 16-Jul-15 Gading Development WARAN SERI I GADING DEVELOPMENT

SUPR-W 4800 28-Aug-15 Solusi Tunas Pratama WARAN SERI I SOLUSI TUNAS PRATAMA

NIRO-W 110 11-Sep-15 Nirvana Development WARAN SERI I NIRVANA DEVELOPMENT

BSIM-W 149 11-Dec-15 Bank Sinar Mas WARAN SERI I BANK SINAR MAS

Warrant


Statistics

-1.1

-1.4

-1.5

-2.0

-2.0

-2.0

-3.0

-4.0

-7.1

-21.8

UNTR

CPIN

PGAS

ICBP

SMGR

LPPF

PNBN

AALI

MKPI

TFCO24.8

4.7

3.4

2.1

1.7

0.9

0.9

0.8

0.8

0.7

BSWD

AKRA

MPPA

ADRO

EXCL

ASII

BBCA

UNVR

KLBF

BBNI

463

321

284

279

135

128

112

100

98

87

- 200 400 600

ASII

MPPA

SRIL

BBRI

TLKM

BBCA

BMRI

MTFN

BBNI

SMGR

1,254

935

372

268

135

129

108

106

88

86

0 500 1,000 1,500

SRIL

TRAM

MTFN

CPRO

SIAP

NIRO

META

PWON

SUGI

TARA

18,050

16,365

6,514

5,121

4,558

3,975

3,955

3,833

3,709

3,457

SRIL

TRAM

SIAP

MPPA

PGAS

SSMS

LPPF

TLKM

SMGR

PWON

JCI Winners (%) JCI Losers (%) JCI Value (Rpbn) JCI Volume (mn Lot) JCI Freq (x)

YTD (Rp) 4.02% 7,520

YTD (USD) 40.03% 5,703

Moving Avg 20day 5,447 5,425

Moving Avg 50day 5,348 14.3

Moving Avg 200day 5,144 2.4%

Indonesia & Sectors +/- (%)YTD (%)

MSCI Indonesia 6,541.1 -0.2 -0.0 5.5

JII 721.0 -0.7 -0.1 4.3

LQ45 947.0 0.1 0.0 5.4

JAKFIN Index 807.3 2.0 0.2 10.3

JAKINFR Index 1,115.1 -2.4 -0.2 -3.9

JAKMINE Index 1,307.4 4.9 0.4 -4.5

JAKCONS Index 2,311.4 5.0 0.2 6.1

JAKTRAD Index 971.5 -4.0 -0.4 10.6

JAKMIND Index 1,396.3 6.7 0.5 6.8

JAKBIND Index 480.2 -5.0 -1.0 -11.7

JAKPROP Index 550.3 -4.3 -0.8 4.8

JAKAGRI Index 2,291.1 -40.3 -1.7 -2.5

Commodities +/- (%)YTD (%)

CRB Index 215.8 1.6 0.77 -6.2

Oil & Gas

Brent Crude Oil (USD/bbl) 55.9 0.6 1.08 -2.4

Nymex Oil (USD/bbl) 47.5 1.7 3.78 -11.0

Natural Gas 2.7 -0.1 -1.90 -5.8

COAL (AUS Daily) 55.9 -0.6 -1.15 -9.8

Industrial Metals

Aluminum (USD/tonne) 1,793.8 0.0 0.00 -2.2

Nickel (USD/tonne) 14,300 55 0.39 -5.6

Tin (USD/tonne) 17,650 345 1.99 -9.0

Precious Metal

Gold (USD/t oz.) 1,187.7 3.1 0.26 0.3

Silver (USD/t oz.) 16.9 0.0 0.05 8.3

Soft Commodities

CPO (Malaysia - Rm/tonne) 2,188 20.0 0.92 -4.5

Rubber (JPY/kg) 1,791 -9.5 -0.53 9.1

Corn (USD/bu.) 390 5.3 1.36 -1.7

Wheat (USD/bu.) 534 4.0 0.75 -9.5

Soybeans (USD/bu.) 984 9.8 1.00 -3.5

Volume (m)

Value (Rpbn)

Mkt Cap (Rptr)

Market 2015 P/E (x)

Market Div. Yield (%)

CPO (Malaysia - Rm/tonne)

Indices Region +/- (%) YT D (%)

MXWO MSCI Word 1,778.0 3.43 0.19 3.99

SPX S&P 500 2,104.4 -3.68 -0.17 2.21

US

18,116.0 -11.6 -0.06 1.64

Nasdaq US 5,011.0 -15.44 -0.31 5.80

Europe

EURO 50 Europe 401.2 -2.77 -0.69 17.15

FTSE London 7,037.7 15.16 0.22 7.18

DAX Jerman 11,895.8 -143.5 -1.19 21.32

CAC France 5,054.5 -32.97 -0.65 18.30

SMI Swiss 9,366.2 -30.09 -0.32 4.26

BRIC

BOVESPA Brazil 51,908.5 -58 -0.11 3.80

MICEX Russia 1,602.9 -25.79 -1.58 14.77

SENSEX India 28,192.0 -69.1 -0.24 2.52

NIFTY India 8,550.9 -20.0 -0.23 3.24

SHCOMP China 3,687.7 70.41 1.95 14.01

SZCOMP China 1,903.6 50.70 2.74 34.51

Nikkei Japan 19,754.4 194.1 0.99 13.20

TPX Japan 1,592.3 11.74 0.74 13.13

HSI Hong kong 24,494.5 119.3 0.49 3.77

KOSPI S.Korea 2,036.6 -0.65 -0.03 6.32

TAIEX Taiwan 9,758.1 8.4 0.09 4.84

FSSTI Singapore 3,410.1 -2.31 -0.07 1.34

ASEAN

SET Thailand 1,520.0 -9.95 -0.65 1.49

PCOMP Philipines 7,840.5 22.1 0.28 8.43

KLCI Malaysia 1,795.9 -7.80 -0.43 1.96

VNINDEX Vietnam 570.9 -4.55 -0.79 4.64

Developed ASIA

Dow Jones Industrial

Kurs Region +/- (%) YT D (%)

USDEUR Euro 0.914 -0.011 -0.01 14.20

USDGBP UK 0.669 0.000 0.00 11.45

USDCHF Switzerland 0.966 -0.009 -0.01 -3.38

USDCAD Canada 1.252 -0.003 -0.00 4.36

USDAUD Australia 1.269 -0.017 -0.01 5.74

USDNZD New Zealand 1.307 -0.015 -0.01 0.52

USDJPY Japan 119.73 -0.310 -0.00 -0.06

USDCNY China 6.21 0.01 0.00 0.23

USDHKD Hongkong 7.756 -0.001 -0.00 -0.56

USDSGD Singapore 1.365 -0.014 -0.01 4.99

Rupiah Indonesia 13,022 #### -0.01 5.12

JCI 5,437.1 (6.0) -0.1%


Historical Technical Trading Ideas (1)

Ticker Last Trading Ideas 23-Mar-15 Chg (%) Recommendation

JCI 5,443 Rebound 5437 -0.11% Incorrect

TLKM 2,920 Buy 2920 0.00% Correct

LSIP 1,835 Buy 1795 -2.18% Incorrect

AALI 25,750 Buy 24800 -3.69% Incorrect

TBIG 9,225 Buy 9225 0.00% Correct

BMRI 12,200 Sell 12175 -0.20% Correct

BJBR 955 Sell 955 0.00% Correct

TAXI 905 Sell 910 0.55% Correct

MPPA 3,875 Buy 4010 3.48% Correct


JCI 5,454 Profit Taking 5443 -0.20% Correct

UNVR 38,300 Buy 38300 0.00% Correct

PTBA 10,450 Buy 10350 -0.96% Incorrect

ITMG 17,025 Buy 17650 3.67% Correct

ELSA 560 Buy 560 0.00% Correct

ASRI 590 Buy 580 -1.69% Incorrect

VIVA 550 Buy 540 -1.82% Incorrect


JCI 5,413 Profit Taking 5454 0.75% Correct

UNTR 21,500 Buy 21475 -0.12% Incorrect

PTBA 10,350 Buy 10450 0.97% Correct

ITMG 16,600 Buy 17025 2.56% Correct

AALI 26,625 Buy 25625 -3.76% Incorrect


TLKM 2,950 Buy 2950 0.00% Correct


JCI 5,439 Profit Taking 5413 -0.48% Correct

UNTR 20,500 Buy 21500 4.88% Correct

INTP 22,475 Buy 22275 -0.89% Incorrect



MPPA 4,430 Sell 4395 -0.79% Correct

INCO 3,345 Sell 3315 -0.90% Correct


JCI 5,435 Cont'd Strenghtening 5,439 0.08% Correct

ASII 7,975 Buy 8,000 0.31% Correct

PGAS 5,225 Buy 5,200 -0.48% Incorrect

TLKM 2,975 Buy 2,955 -0.67% Correct

INTP 22,175 Buy 22,475 1.35% Correct

TAXI 785 Trading Buy 865 10.19% Correct

MPMX 875 Trading Buy 840 -4.00% Incorrect


VIVA 545 Buy 550 0.92% Correct


JCI 5,445 Cont'd Weakening 5,435 0.16% Incorrect

TLKM 2,955 Buy 2,975 0.68% Correct

LSIP 1,840 Buy 1,920 4.35% Correct

INCO 3,295 Buy 3,365 2.12% Correct

MPPA 4,200 Buy 4,435 5.60% Correct

PTPP 3,770 Buy 3,740 -0.80% Incorrect

ICBP 14,625 Sell 15,000 2.56% Incorrect




JCI 5,440 Profit Taking 5,426 -0.25% Correct

ITMG 16,950 Buy 17,300 2.06% Correct

ADRO 970 Buy 970 0.00% Correct



ASRI 560 Buy 565 0.89% Correct

GJTL 1,255 Buy 1,300 3.59% Correct

BCAP 1,770 Sell 1,780 0.56% Incorrect


JCI 5,420 Rebound 5,440 0.37% Correct



BBRI 12,775 Buy 12,900 0.98% Correct

PGAS 5,200 Buy 5,200 0.00% Correct

TRAM 91 Trading Buy 106 16.48% Correct

NIRO 214 Trading Buy 211 -1.40% Incorrect


JCI 5,463 Profit taking 5,420 -0.80% Correct

LSIP 1,875 Buy 1,845 -1.60% Incorrect

AALI 26,075 Buy 26,100 0.10% Correct


CPRO 119 Trading Buy 118 -0.84% Correct

INCO 3,380 Sell 3,335 -1.33% Correct

TINS 1,005 Sell 990 -1.49% Correct



ADRO 990 Buy 985 -0.51% Incorrect

INCO 3,425 Buy 3,380 -1.31% Incorrect


UNTR 20,625 Buy 21,350 3.52% Correct

BCIP 760 Trading Buy 750 -1.32% Incorrect

MYRX 755 Trading Buy 760 0.66% Correct


JCI 5,515 Con't Strenghtening 5,445 -1.28% Incorrect

BBNI 6,675 Buy 6,700 0.37% Correct

BDMN 4,925 Buy 4,805 -2.44% Incorrect



ASII 8,075 Buy 7,950 -1.55% Correct

NIRO 226 Trading Buy 222 -1.77% Incorrect




SCMA 3,660 Buy 3,670 0.27% Correct

NIRO 223 Buy 226 1.35% Correct

ASRI 610 Buy 610 0.00% Correct

PTPP 3,980 Buy 3,960 -0.50% Correct

UNVR 36,250 Sell 37,800 4.28% Incorrect

GGRM 54,275 Sell 54,300 0.05% Correct




JCI 5,448 Con't Weakening 5,451 0.05% Incorrect


SCMA 3,570 Buy 3,660 2.52% Correct

JSMR 7,100 Buy 7,050 -0.70% Incorrect

PTPP 3,950 Buy 3,980 0.76% Correct

NIRO 220 Trading Buy 223 1.36% Correct

LSIP 1,895 Sell 1,910 0.79% Correct

UNTR 21,650 Sell 21,775 0.58% Correct


JCI 5,475 Con't Weakening 5,448 -0.49% Correct

PGAS 5,350 Buy 5,250 -1.87% Inorrect

SCMA 3,575 Buy 3,570 -0.14% Correct

NIRO 222 Buy 220 -0.90% Correct

MPPA 4,440 Buy 4,225 -4.84% Inorrect

LSIP 1,920 Sell 1,895 -1.30% Correct

ADHI 3,360 Sell 3,305 -1.64% Correct

AALI 25,625 Sell 25,975 1.37% Inorrect


JCI 5,450 Con't Strenghtening 5,475 -0.06% Incorrect


AALI 25,550 Buy 25,625 0.29% Correct

TLKM 2,950 Buy 2,945 -0.17% Correct

HRUM 1,590 Buy 1,620 1.89% Correct


ICBP 14,325 Buy 14,725 2.79% Correct


JCI 5,450 Con't Weakening 5,478 0.51% Incorrect



LPKR 1,180 Buy 1,175 -0.42% Incorrect

HRUM 1,655 Buy 1,590 -3.93% Incorrect

ITMG 16,900 Buy 17,525 3.70% Correct



Ticker Last Trading Ideas 27-Feb-15 Chg (%) Recommendation

JCI 5,451 Profit Taking 5,450 -0.01% Incorrect


HRUM 1,600 Buy 1,655 3.44% Incorrect


JSMR 7,075 Buy 7,100 0.35% Correct

BKSL 146 Buy 145 -0.68% Correct

BBRI 12,950 Sell 12,875 -0.58% Correct

BBNI 6,925 Sell 6,875 -0.72% Correct


JCI 5,445 Profit Taking 5,451 0.12% Incorrect


INTP 24,125 Buy 24,050 -0.31% Incorrect


SSIA 1,325 Buy 1,330 0.38% Correct


WIKA 3,650 Sell 3,675 0.68% Incorrect




PTPP 4,055 Buy 4,030 -0.62% Incorrect

SMGR 14,925 Buy 15,150 1.51% Correct


BBRI 12,800 Buy 12,925 0.98% Correct

WIKA 3,650 Sell 3,670 0.55% Incorrect





LSIP 1,825 Buy 1,805 -1.10% Incorrect

BWPT 363 Buy 361 -0.55% Incorrect

TLKM 2,910 Buy 2,905 -0.17% Incorrect

PTPP 4,055 Buy 4,055 0.00% Correct

WSKT 1,820 Sell 1,810 -0.55% Correct

ASRI 685 Sell 675 -1.46% Correct


JCI 5,400 Cont Strenghtening 5,403 0.06% Correct

BMRI 12,075 Buy 11,875 -1.66% Incorrect

BBTN 1,055 Buy 1,045 -0.95% Incorrect

GJTL 1,360 Buy 1,310 -3.68% Incorrect

AKRA 4,870 Buy 4,810 -1.23% Incorrect

ITMG 18,200 Sell 17,750 -2.47% Correct

KLBF 1,790 Sell 1,795 0.28% Correct



BWPT 366 Buy 364 -0.55% Incorrect

GGRM 55,175 Buy 55,000 -0.32% Incorrect

GJTL 1,340 Buy 1,360 1.49% Correct

ADHI 3,410 Buy 3,490 2.35% Correct

BBRI 12,475 Buy 12,725 2.00% Correct

BJBR 910 Sell 945 3.85% Incorrect



BWPT 363 Buy 366 0.83% Correct

SMGR 14,500 Buy 14,775 1.90% Correct

TBIG 8,750 Buy 8,500 -2.86% Incorrect

GGRM 54,950 Buy 55,175 0.41% Correct


MPPA 4,300 Sell 4,420 2.79% Incorrect


JCI 5,325 Cont Weakening 5,338 0.23% Incorrect

BWPT 363 Buy 363 0.00% Correct

SMGR 14,500 Buy 14,675 1.21% Correct

BBRI 12,025 Buy 12,000 -0.21% Incorrect

LEAD 1,985 Buy 1,950 -1.76% Incorrect

ACES 770 Buy 765 -0.65% Incorrect

MPPA 4,200 Sell 4,300 2.38% Correct


JCI 5,374 Cont Strenghtening 5,325 -0.90% Incorrect

TINS 1,070 Buy 1,075 0.47% Correct

UNTR 18,950 Buy 18,750 -1.06% Incorrect

LPKR 1,115 Buy 1,115 0.00% Correct



KLBF 1,870 Buy 1,800 -3.74% Incorrect



TINS 1,080 Buy 1,070 -0.93% Inorrect

GGRM 54,950 Buy 55,400 0.82% Correct

LPKR 1,105 Buy 1,115 0.90% Correct

BBNI 6,725 Buy 6,675 -0.74% Incorrect

CPRO 116 Trading Buy 114 -1.72% Incorrect

BKSL 126 Trading Buy 124 -1.59% Correct


Research Team

Sebastian Tobing, CFA

Head of Research & Institutional Business

([email protected])

Maria Renata

Equity Analyst

([email protected])

Gina Novrina Nasution, CSA

Technical Analyst

([email protected])

Paula Ruth

Equity Analyst

([email protected])

Angga Aditya Assaf

Equity Analyst

([email protected])

Willinoy Sitorus

Equity Analyst

([email protected])

M. Dian Octiana

Equity Analyst

([email protected])

Dini Agmivia Anggraeni

Fixed Income/Macro Analyst

([email protected])

Yeni Simanjuntak

On-the-ground Analyst

([email protected])

Rovandi

Research Associate

([email protected])

Institutional Sales Team

Daniel Dwi Seputro

Head of Institutional Equity Sales

([email protected])

Dewi Yusnita

Equity Institutional Sales

([email protected])

Meitawati


([email protected])

Fachruly Fiater


([email protected])

Henry Sidarta


([email protected])

Raditya Andyono


([email protected])

Nancy Pardede


([email protected])

Retail Sales Team

JAKARTA AREA

Nathanael Benny Prasetyo

Head of Retail ECM

([email protected])

Ariawan Anwar

Artha Graha, Jakarta

([email protected])

Windra Djulnaily

Pluit, Jakarta

([email protected])

Ferry Zabur

Kelapa Gading, Jakarta

([email protected])

Eddy Sumarli

Puri Kencana, Jakarta

([email protected])

Very Wijaya

BSD, Tangerang

([email protected])

SUMATERA

Juliana Effendy

Medan, Sumatera Utara

([email protected])

Tantie Rivi Watie

Pekanbaru, Riau

([email protected])

Nathanael Benny Prasetyo

Palembang, Sumatera Selatan

([email protected])

EAST INDONESIA

Wiranto Sunyoto

Branch Area Manager

([email protected])

Sonny Muljadi

Surabaya, Jawa Timur

([email protected]

Ni Made Dwi Hapsari Wijayanti

Denpasar, Bali

([email protected])

Ivan Jaka Perdana

Malang, Jawa Timur

([email protected])

Arifin Pribadi

Makasar, Sulawesi Selatan

([email protected])

CENTRAL JAVA, AREA

Agus Bambang Suseno

Solo, Jawa Tengah

([email protected])

Mariana Kusuma Wati

Semarang, Jawa Tengah

[email protected])

WEST JAVA

Asep Saepudin

Bandung, Jawa Barat

([email protected])

Ariffianto

Cirebon, Jawa Barat

([email protected])

PT Trimegah Securities Tbk

Gedung Artha Graha 18th Floor

Jl. Jend. Sudirman Kav. 52-53

Jakarta 12190, Indonesia

t. +62-21 2924 9088

f. +62-21 2924 9150

www.trimegah.com

DISCLAIMER

This report has been prepared by PT Trimegah Securities Tbk on behalf of itself and its affiliated companies and is provided for information

purposes only. Under no circumstances is it to be used or considered as an offer to sell, or a solicitation of any offer to buy. This report has

been produced independently and the forecasts, opinions and expectations contained herein are entirely those of Trimegah Securities.

While all reasonable care has been taken to ensure that information contained herein is not untrue or misleading at the time of publication,

Trimegah Securities makes no representation as to its accuracy or completeness and it should not be relied upon as such. This report is

provided solely for the information of clients of Trimegah Securities who are expected to make their own investment decisions without reliance

on this report. Neither Trimegah Securities nor any officer or employee of Trimegah Securities accept any liability whatsoever for any direct or

consequential loss arising from any use of this report or its contents. Trimegah Securities and/or persons connected with it may have acted

upon or used the information herein contained, or the research or analysis on which it is based, before publication. Trimegah Securities may in

future participate in an offering of the company’s equity securities.

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