Oilseed markets situation

2005-2006

IOPD IX

June 16-17,2006 San Francisco

Continuous increase in world consumption,driven by Asian demand

Asia-EU-North America : 80% of world oilseeds consumption

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

OILS : DISAPPEARANCE (MnT)

ASIA

North America

EU

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

MEALS : DISAPPEARANCE (Mn T)

ASIA

EU

North America

Chinese imports of soybean and products: nearly 10% annual increase since 1995

Asia-EU : close to 80% of world soya imports

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

SOYA (Seeds, meals and oils, MnT)

EU-25

ASIA (incl. China)

CHINA

World oiseeds production: still above the long term trend in 2005/06 (+ 5 %)

+17 Mn T

200

220

240

260

280

300

320

340

360

380

400

91/92 93/94 95/96 97/98 99/00 01/02 03/04 05/06

OILSEEDS : WORLD PRODUCTION (Mn T)

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

91/92 93/94 95/96 97/98 99/00 01/02 03/04 05/06

OILSEEDS : WORLD PRODUCTION (Mn T)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

03/04 04/05 05/06

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

Fin. Stocks Stocks/Disappear.

Mn T

But global stocks are increasing s'accroissent

Ratio

All oilseeds: +2% to +3%

Soybeans: limited increase

Other oilseeds: supply remains at a high level

World oilseeds production: slight increase in 2005/06 after a jump in 2004/05

EVOLUTION DE LA PRODUCTION MONDIALE DE SOJA

MnT USA South Am. China India Others TOTAL

00/01 75,1 71,2 15,4 5,0 8,6 175,3

01/02 78,7 77,3 15,4 5,4 7,7 184,5

02/03 75,0 92,8 16,5 4,3 8,0 196,7

03/04 66,8 88,1 15,4 6,8 8,0 185,1

04/05 84,4 98,6 17,6 5,8 9,2 215,6

05/06 84,0 100,8 17,4 6,6 10,1 218,9

MnT Brazil Argentina Bolivia Paraguay Uruguay

00/01 39,1 27,4 1,2 3,5 0,0

01/02 42,8 30,0 1,2 3,3 0,0

02/03 52,0 34,8 1,7 4,2 0,1

03/04 50,1 32,0 1,5 4,1 0,4

04/05 52,8 39,6 1,7 4,1 0,5

05/06 55,0 39,8 1,8 3,7 0,6

SOYBEANS : WORLD PRODUCTION (MnT)

US soybeans: relative stability of areas, abundant crops in 04/05 and 05/06 thanks to good yields

0,0

5,0

10,0

15,0

20,0

25,0

30,0

35,0

93/94

94/95

95/96

96/97

97/98

98/99

99/00

00/01

01/02

02/03

03/04

04/05

05/06

06/07

0

0,5

1

1,5

2

2,5

3

3,5

Area Mn Ha

Yields T/Ha

South America: increase in soybean areas is slowing down from 2005/06, in particular in Brazil

SOYBEAN area in South America (Mn Ha)

0

5

10

15

20

25

00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06 06/07

Brazil

Argentina

Others

Soybean: a new supply/demand balance shaping up for 2006/07

SOYBEANS : WORLD PRODUCTION AND DISAPPEARANCE (Mn T)

150

160

170

180

190

200

210

220

230

01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06 06/07p

Production

Disappearance

Rapeseed: high but stable production in Europe, increasing supply on the world market

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

91/92 93/94 95/96 97/98 99/00 01/02 03/04 05/06

RAPESEED : WORLD PRODUCTION (MnT)

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

91/92 93/94 95/96 97/98 99/00 01/02 03/04 05/06

RAPESEED PRODUCTION (MnT)

Canada

EU-25

Rapeseed: increasing areas

18

19

20

21

22

23

24

25

26

27

28

91/92 93/94 95/96 97/98 99/00 01/02 03/04 05/06

RAPESEED : WORLD AREA (Mn Ha)

2,5

3,0

3,5

4,0

4,5

5,0

5,5

6,0

6,5

91/92 93/94 95/96 97/98 99/00 01/02 03/04 05/06

RAPESEED AREA (MnHa)

Canada

EU-25

Rapeseed: 2004 and 2005 yields in the major EU producing countries

15

20

25

30

35

40

45 (q/ha)

2004 yields

5 year average(1999-2003)

+20%

2005 yields

+25%

+42%

+51%

+22%

+14%

+31%

+17%

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

98/99 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08

Rapeseed production and crushing in the EU-25 (Mn T)

Rapeseed: favorable perspectives with increasing crushing capacities

CRUSHINGPRODUCTION

Sunflower: world production Significant increase in production, with the help of good yields, in

Russia/Ukraine Production around 4 Mn T in the EU-25 since 1999

18

20

22

24

26

28

30

32

91/92 93/94 95/96 97/98 99/00 01/02 03/04 05/06

SUNFLOWERSEED : WORLD PRODUCTION (MnT)

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

91/92 93/94 95/96 97/98 99/00 01/02 03/04 05/06

SUNFLOWERSEED PRODUCTION (MnT)

Russia/Ukraine

Romania/Bulgaria

Argentina

EU-25

Sunflower: world areas

Area increase in Russia/Ukraine Decrease in the EU 25, with 2 MnHa

15

16

17

18

19

20

21

22

23

24

91/92 93/94 95/96 97/98 99/00 01/02 03/04 05/06

SUNFLOWERSEED : WORLD AREA (Mn Ha)

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

91/92 93/94 95/96 97/98 99/00 01/02 03/04 05/06

SUNFLOWERSEED AREA (Mn Ha)

Russia/Ukraine

Rumania/Bulgaria

Argentina

EU-25

Palm oil: increasing production and growing share of Indonesia

Mn T Malaysia Indonesia Others Total

00/01 11,9 7,7 4,1 23,7 01/02 11,9 8,9 4,6 25,4 02/03 13,2 10,4 4,6 28,2 03/04 13,4 12,0 4,5 29,9 04/05 15,2 13,4 4,7 33,3 05/06 14,6 14,9 4,9 34,4

PALM OIL : WORLD PRODUCTION (MnT)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06

Malaysia

Indonesia

Others

Total

Mn T

Vegetable oils: world consumption is in progress, rape oil takes a growing part with biodiesel since 2002/03

OILS : WORLD DISAPPEARANCE (Mn T)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06

Soya

Rape

SunflowerPalm

EU : consumption increases for all oils, more pronouncedly for rapeseed and palm oils

UE : OIL DISAPPEARANCE (MnT)

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06

Sunflower

Soya

Palm

Rape

EU: strong growth in rapeseed oil demand, on the account of biofuels

EU - RAPE OIL DISAPPEARANCE (Mn T)

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06

Biofuels

Others (mainlyfood)

EU becoming a net importer of rapeseed and soybean oils

EU - TRADE BALANCE OF MAJOR OILS (Mn T)

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

Soya RapeSunflower Palm

Increasing utilisations of rapeseed oil Decreasing crushings (and imports) of soybeans, while soybean oil

consumption increases

EU - TRADE BALANCE OF MAJOR OILS (MnT)03/04 04/05 05/06

ImportsSoya 0,1 0,2 0,6Rape 0,0 0,0 0,3Sunflower 0,6 0,8 1,1Palm 3,8 4,5 4,8

ExportsSoya 0,5 0,5 0,3Rape 0,1 0,1 0,1Sunflower 0,2 0,1 0,9Palm 0,1 0,1 0,1

BalanceSoya 0,5 0,3 -0,3Rape 0,1 0,1 -0,3Sunflower -0,4 -0,7 -0,1Palm -3,8 -4,5 -4,8

Oilmeal prices in dollars slightly under long term average

SOYMEAL $/ T Chicago

150

200

250

300

350

400

juil-01 juil-02 juil-03 juil-04 juil-05

20 years average :205 $/T

Vegetable oils prices slightly above long term average on the world market

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

juil-01 juil-02 juil-03 juil-04 juil-05 juil-06

$/T, Rotterdam

SOYBEAN OIL

PALM OIL

01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06

average prices 1986-2005

Oils in Europe: reinforced premium for rapeseed, driven by biodiesel, large world supplies bearing on sunflower

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

juil-01 juil-02 juil-03 juil-04 juil-05 juil-06

$/T, North Europe

SOYA OIL

PALM OIL

SUN OIL

RAPE OIL

01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06

Soybeans: also at a relatively low price

SOYBEANS$/T CHICAGO

150

200

250

300

350

400

juil-01 juil-02 juil-03 juil-04 juil-05

20 years average :230 $/T

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

juil-01 juil-02 juil-03 juil-04 juil-05 juil-06

RAPESEED : CIF Rotterdam

€/T

$/T

01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06

Rapeseed: the price has been penalised by a deficit of crushing capacity (and by the exchange rate in EU)

average prices 1986-2005

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

juil-01 juil-02 juil-03 juil-04 juil-05 juil-06

Sunflowerseed CIF Rhin

€/T

$/T

01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06

Sunflowerseed: the price has been penalised by ample world supplies (and by the exchange rate in EU)

average prices 1986-2005