Pathways to Prosperity: From Report to ActionRobert Schwartz

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2

No High School8%

High School Diploma /GED

24%

Some College, No Degree

14%Certificate12%

Associate's Degree10%

Bachelor's Degree21%

Graduate Degree11%

Source: Georgetown Center on Education and the Workforce, 2012

Education Level of U.S. Labor Force

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US “on time” completion rates are alarmingly low

Note: Four-year schools have a six-year graduation window; two-year schools have a three-year graduation window. Source: Condition of Education, NCES, 2013

Four-Year School (BA) Two-Year School (AA or Certificate)0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

59%

31%

U.S. On-Time College Completion Rates

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By 2020, College for All does not mean everyone needs a BA – 65% of all jobs do not require a BA

HS Diploma or Less35%

Some College/AA Degree

30%

BA Degree or Higher

35%

Source: Recovery 2020, Georgetown Center on Education and the Workforce, 2013

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Examples of jobs that require middle skills

Source: “Who Can Fix the Middle Skills Gap?” Harvard Business Review, 2012, T Kochan, D Finegold, P Osterman

Data from Occupational Outlook Handbook, U.S. BLS, 2010

Sector Type of JobNumber of Openings

Median Annual Pay

Computers & ITComputer Support Specialists 607,100 $46,260

Engineering Electrical Technicians 151,000 $56,040

Health Care Respiratory Therapists 112,700 $54,280

Life, Physical & Social Sciences

Environmental Science Technicians 29,000 $41,380

ProductionSemiconductor Processors 21,100 $33,130

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In the face of increasing demand for skilled workers, we are unable to keep

up…

In a 2011 McKinsey survey of 2,000 U.S. companies, two thirds reported difficulty in filling job vacancies for reasons

including:• insufficient job experience

• unsuitable work habits • insufficient educational qualifications

• poor communication ability

TODAY:

6

I. Current Macroeconomic Trends

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8

In many European countries, over half of upper secondary students are in vocational education and training

9

Availability of career-tech in secondary schools increases upper secondary graduation rates

Austria

BelgiumGreece

FinlandFrance

Germany Netherlands

Sweden

Switzerland

United Kingdom

Spain

United StatesCanada

Iceland

Portugal

New Zealand

50%

55%

60%

65%

70%

75%

80%

85%

90%

95%

100%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Up

per

-Sec

cco

nd

ary

Gra

du

atio

n R

ates

(u

nd

up

lica

ted

-OE

CD

)

Source: OECD Education at a Glance

Share of Upper Secondary Students in Career Tech

10

Unit

ed S

tate

s

Cze

ch R

ep

Est

onia

Germ

any

Sw

itze

rland

Denm

ark

Canada

Norw

ay

Sw

eden

Russ

ian F

ed

Aust

ria

Slo

venia

Isra

el

Slo

vak R

ep

New

Zeala

nd

Hungary

Finla

nd

UK

Neth

erl

ands

Luxem

bourg

EU

19 A

vg

OEC

D A

vg

France

Aust

ralia

Icela

nd

Belg

ium

Pola

nd

Irela

nd

Kore

a

Chile

Gre

ece

Italy

Spain

Turk

ey

Port

ugal

Mexic

o

Bra

zil

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

1990s 1980s 1970s 1960s

U.S. rate has stagnated while most industrialized countries have improved.

School completion: Dramatic change in global skill supply

Source: Schleicher (2007) based on OECD data. Approximated by percentage of persons with high school or equivalent qualfications in the age groups 55-64, 45-55, 35-44, and 25-34 years

13

1

1

27

11

Austra

lia

Austria

Belgiu

m

Canad

aChile

Czech

Rep

ublic

Denm

ark

Estonia

Finla

nd

France

Germ

any

Greec

e

Hungary

Icel

and

Irela

ndIs

rael

Italy

Korea

Luxem

bourg

Mex

ico

Nether

lands

New Z

eala

nd

Norway

Poland

Portugal

Slova

k Rep

ublic

Slove

nia

Spain

Sweden

Switzer

land

Turkey

United K

ingdom

United S

tate

s n

20

40

60

80

100

120

84 88

82

92 88

94

80 86

90

83 87

80

87

75

85 90

71

98

83

44

82 80 84

94

56

94 94

65

91 89

43

84 89

Percentage of Upper Secondary Completion, 25-34 y/o, 2011

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Even more alarming, U.S. college completion rates have stagnated while others have improved.

College level graduation rates

Aust

ralia

Icela

nd

New

Zeala

nd

Finla

nd

Denm

ark

Pola

nd

Neth

erl

ands

Italy

Norw

ay

UK

Irela

nd

Sw

eden

OEC

D A

vg

Hungary

Japan

EU

19 A

vg

Isra

el

Unit

ed S

tate

s

Spain

Port

ugal

Slo

vak R

ep

Sw

itze

rland

Gre

ece

Cze

ch R

ep

Aust

ria

Germ

any

Slo

venia

Turk

ey

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

2005 1995

15

2

Decline of the relative position of the US from 1995 to 2005

Source: Schleicher (2007) based on OECD data. Percentage of tertiary type A graduates to the population at the typical age of graduation.

The skills gap hurts our global competitiveness

Canada

Korea

Russia

Japan

New Zealand

Ireland

Norway

Israel

France

Belgium

Australia

United States

0 10 20 30 40 50 60

Percentage of 25 to 34 year olds with an Associates Degree or

higher%

Russia

Israel

Canada

United States

New Zealand

Estonia

Finland

Australia

Norway

Sweden

Netherlands

Switzerland

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50

Percentage of 55 to 64 year olds with Associate Degree or higher

%

Source: OECD Educational Attainment, 2007

We are falling behind in the educational attainment of our young people in an economy where human capital drives productivity and innovation

13

I. Current Macroeconomic Trends

from 4th…

…to 12th

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15

Innovation & Competitiveness: Switzerland at Top

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Rank European Innovation Scoreboard 2010

WEF Global Competitiveness Index2011-2012

IMD World Competitiveness Scoreboard2011

1 Switzerland Switzerland Hongkong

2 Sweden Singapore USA

3 Denmark Sweden Switzerland

4 Germany Finland Singapore

Sources: EIS: European Innovation Scoreboard, 2012 WEF: Global Competitiveness Report, 2012

IMD: World Competitiveness Yearbook, 2012

ETHZ/KOF • Prof. Dr. Ursula Renold

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December 2012

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Four levels of pathways work

Regional Level

State Level

Multistate Network

National & Federal Levels

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PATHWAYS INITIATED VARIOUSLY ACROSS THE NETWORK

• Illinois: Governor, Illinois Pathways Interagency Committee

• Massachusetts: Secretaries of Education, Housing and Economic Development, and Labor and Workforce Development

• Missouri: Commissioner and Associate Commissioner of Education

• North Carolina: State Superintendent of Education and CTE Director, State Community College System, NC New Schools

• Tennessee: Commissioner of Education, state CTE director

• California: Senate President pro Tem

• Georgia: State School Superintendent

• New York: Commissioner of Education

• Ohio: Columbus Compact

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SAMPLE STATE ENTRY POINTS…

• Massachusetts: – Community colleges, WIBs, and employer

associations leading the work in the regions – Three secretariats co-lead at the state level

• Illinois: – IL Pathways Interagency Committee– Statewide Learning Exchanges

• Tennessee:– Rural economic and community development strategy– Science park, strong employer partners (VW, Wacker)

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EXEMPLARY STATE POLICIES, RESOURCES, AND INITIATIVES:

• New model legislation in some states, such as:– Career and College Promise, NC– AB 790 and SB 1070, CA (support Linked Learning

approaches and expansion of career pathways)

• New resources at state level, such as:– Learning Exchanges, IL– Innovation Campuses, MO– Performance Incentive Funds to Community Colleges, MA

• Employers driving interest in advanced manufacturing and IT pathways, such as:– Volkswagen and Wacker in Chattanooga– Cisco, IBM, Microsoft, Motorola, SAP, and Verizon in Illinois

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2121

Key implementation levers

9-14 Pathways linked to careers

Engaged employers

offering WBL and internships

Intermediary links between education and

employers

Early, sustained career

counseling and information

Committed state leaders and favorable

policy environment

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MOST PREVALENT CAREER AREAS OF FOCUS AND GREATEST PIPELINE DEVELOPMENT NEED

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Advanced Manufacturing

Few know the opportunities and salaries, stigma

attached

Health Careers

Growing field, career paths must

be carefully chosen

Information Technology

Cross-cutting and key to all 21st century

careers, not just in IT fields

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• Early Career Advising

– Most districts lack a systemic strategy to introduce young people to the world of careers beginning in middle grades

• 9-14 Pathways

– Few 9-14 pathways align and integrate high school career pathways with community college

– Community colleges’ “high demand” career programs are not accessible to young entrants; therefore, integrated 9-14 programs of study must be built

CHALLENGES TO SYSTEMS BUILDING

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• Intermediaries

– Communities lack organizations to serve as the “glue” between schools, colleges and employers: to convene, muster resources, align education with labor market needs. Chambers, sector organizations need to step up.

• Employer Engagement

– Employers are not interested in general “please engage with schools” requests; instead, we need to engage employers to build talent pipelines for young professionals into specific career areas.

CHALLENGES TO SYSTEMS BUILDING (CONTINUED)

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• New model legislation in some states, such as:– Career and College Promise, NC– AB 790 (Linked Learning Pilot) and SB 1070 (CTE Pathways),

CA

• New resources at state level, such as:– Learning Exchanges, IL– Innovation Campuses, MO– Performance Incentive Funds to Community Colleges, MA

• Employers driving interest in STEM fields, such as:– Volkswagen and Wacker in TN– IT employers in Illinois

• Regional integrated 9-14 models– P-Tech in NYC, Chicago– Early colleges across NC, nation

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EXEMPLARY POLICIES, RESOURCES, AND INITIATIVES

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1. Provide Curriculum Resources

2. Expand Access to Equipment

3. Support Peer‐to‐Peer Networks

4. Provide Work‐Based Learning

5. Sponsor Challenges

6. Provide Professional Development

7. Provide Career Development

8. Review Program of Study Model

9. Review P‐20 Pipeline Performance

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EXAMPLE: IL STATE-LEVEL STEM LEARNING EXCHANGES

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Next steps for the network

– State and regional work plans• One- and three-year implementation metrics and goals• Place-based strategies with practices and principles that can

be scaled statewide–9-14 high school/community college pathway design–Customized TA, support, and resources from JFF,

Harvard, and other expert consultants around four levers• Based on work plan needs, with capacity-building focus• Webinars, convenings, site visits, coaching

–Community of practice and Network collaboration–Phasing in GA, CA, OH, NY

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“And so tonight, I ask every American to commit to at least one year or more of

higher education or career training. This can be community college or a four-year

school; vocational training or an apprenticeship. But whatever the training may be, every American will need to get

more than a high school diploma.”President Barack Obama

Speech to Joint Session of Congress, February 2009