peter a. gloor, kai fischbach mit center for collective ... · coolhunting, coolfarming hedge fund...
TRANSCRIPT
Peter A. Gloor, Kai Fischbach
MIT Center for Collective Intelligence & Universität Köln
Galaxyadvisors AG
Kontakt: [email protected], +41 79 446 7039
[email protected] +49 179 6781251
How Cool ideas develop
Creators (creative experts)
COINs (groups of creators)
CLNs (swarms - ecosystems of
COINs)
CINs (crowds - ecosystems of
CLNs )
Concept Map Trend Map
Web Blogs Patent databases
Scientific literature
databases
Online
forums
Social Network
Analysis Software
Experts New Topics Emerging Trends
results
analysis!
data
sources
Condor Architecture
People Map
E-Mail archives
Knowledge Flow Optimization
Blood
System Business
Process
Nervous
System Knowledge
Flow
Skeleton
Organization
Structure
Data
Body
Parts Data
People for Innovation
Most effective communicators
personal
community
Degree of
Sharing
high
Degree of
Interactivity
low
high
(m-m)
small
(1-1)
Degree of
Connectivity (1-m)
High-Performing Organizations operate as
Collaborative Innovation Networks
+
+ CIN
Collaborative Interest Network
Linux Users
Example:
CLN Collaborative Learning Network
Linux Maintainers
COIN Collaborative
Innovation Network
Linux Creators
COIN Collaborative
Innovation Network
CLN Collaborative
Learning Network
CIN Collaborative
Interest Network
Social badges: a wearable computing
research platform
•! Infrared sensor: –! Face-to-face interaction
•! Bluetoth: –! Proximity to other people
–! Relative location
•! Acceleromenter: –! Body movement
–! Physical activity levels
•! Speech Sensor –! Voice and pitch detection
Automatically captured group dynamics!
Case Study: Experimental Setup
Setup: E-Mail
•! Period of investigation: –! 7 months: April 2006 – October 2006
•! Social Network –! 6 divisons
–! E-Mail Logfiles (anonymized)
–! 2,54 GB = ca. 16 Mio. Mails
–! Sender, receiver, and time stamp (no content)
•! Group performance indicators –! provided by Controlling department
–! amount of sold products, concluded contracts, achievement of objectives
•! Self- assessment –! Online survey (monthly)
Setup: Social Badges
•! New Media Department
•! 22 actors
•! Period: 1 month
•! Daily survey
Predicting Drink Sales
Results
1.! main blog & Web site: bevnet.com
2.! competitors: batterydrink, kabbalahenergydrink, red bull
3.! Relative importance: 1. Power 2. Monster 3. Kabbalah 4. Red Bull 5. Battery
Stock trends
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1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
0
0.02
0.04
0.06
0.08
0.1
0.12
0.14
IBM stock
IBM -3d
For example IBM:
Web & Blog predict stock trend by 1-3 days (R=0.822***)
References
Who What Galaxy tool
Global car manufacturer Innovation discovery,
dashboard
KFO, coolfarming
Leading Austrian
Hightech
Optimizing global leadership
network
KFO, coolfarming
Global Pharma
company
Innovation discovery,
competitor analysis
Coolhunting,
coolfarming
Hedge Fund Stock prediction, competitive
analysis
coolhunting
German savings bank Leadership networks,
competitor analysis
KFO, coolhunting,
coolfarming