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REAL ESTATE MARKET OUTLOOK
POLAND OUTLOOK 2017
CBRE RESEARCH
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Poland is the largest country within the Central and Eastern Europe region with over 38 million inhabitants. It is perceived as one of the most dynamic market in the CEE region and continues to experience a stable economic expansion.
ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
POLAND IS STABLE IN TURBULENT TIMES
INTRODUCTION
Source: Oxford Economics, Central Statistical Office, 2017
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Warsaw witnesses constant development and growth, both in terms of population as well as infrastructure. It offers significant potential for both new investors and existing occupiers. Currently, the market in Warsaw is very active, competitive and favourable for the tenants.
SUPPLY
DEMAND
VACANCY
4
THE FUTURE OF THE OFFICE MARKET IN WARSAW IS BRIGHT
WARSAW OFFICE MARKET
Source: CBRE, PORF, 2017Q1
FORECAST
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RENTS
OUTLOOK
FORECASTED WARSAW OFFICE
STOCK AT THE END OF 2017
+7.3% Change in comparison to Q4 2016
FORECASTED WARSAW OFFICE
DEMAND AT THE END OF 2017
+3.0%Change in comparison to Q4 2016
FORECASTED WARSAW OFFICE
VACANCY AT THE END OF 2017
+0.3ppChange in comparison to Q4 2016
FORECASTED WARSAW OFFICE PRIME
HEADLINE RENT AT THE END OF
2017
0.0% Change in comparison to Q4 2016
5
WARSAW OFFICE MARKET
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2016 was one of the most successful years in the history of the
regional office markets in Poland. The results from the first
quarter of 2017 confirm the good prospects, which will be
stimulated by the outstanding activity of tenants and developers.
SUPPLY DEMAND
7
REGIONAL OFFICE MARKETS
REGIONAL OFFICE MARKETS IN POLAND ARE FLOURISHING
Source: CBRE, PORF, 2017Q1
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VACANCY
RENTS
OUTLOOK
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CITY • OFFICE STOCK (SQ M) • UNDER CONSTRUCTION (SQ M) • VACANCY RATE • PRIME HEADLINE RENT (PER SQ M/MONTH)
SZCZECIN156,10025,00015.9%12.00 EUR
WROCLAW867,800153,90010.2%15.00 EUR
KATOWICE443,10034,40014.6%13.00 EUR
LODZ371,200120,0008.30%12.75 EUR
KRAKOW942,900326,7006.8%14.00 EUR
LUBLIN140,40056,30011.8%10.50 EUR
TRI-CITY646,100137,50010.1%13.50 EUR
POZNAN427,80038,80014.0%14.00 EUR
REGIONAL OFFICE MARKETS
Source: CBRE, 2017Q1
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The industrial and logistics market is booming. The main Polish
markets are growing in parallel with relatively new locations.
The market is being continuously driven by high tenant
demand.
10
EXCELLENT START WITH PROMISING OUTLOOK FOR THE WHOLE 2017
POLISH INDUSTRIAL MARKET
Source: CBRE, 2017
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+42%Demand in Q1 2017 (990,000 sq m), y-o-y change
+12%Industrial and logistics stock (11.6 m sq m), y-o-y
change
-0.1ppVacancy rate (6.1%), y-o-y change
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POLISH INDUSTRIAL MARKET
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The Polish retail market is getting more and more saturated and
diversified - there is over 0.5 million sq m of retail stock
expected to open in new projects in 2017. Retail tenants are
also bringing new store concepts and formats to the market.
13
POLISH RETAIL MARKET
CALM BEGINNING TO AN INTENSE YEAR ON THE POLISH RETAIL MARKET
Source: CBRE, Oxford Economics, 2017Q1
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3.3%Average Polish shopping
centre vacancy (H2 2016)
90-120Warsaw shopping
centre prime rents
(EUR/sq m/month)
5,800Completions in Q1
(sq m of GLA)
50%The share of stock which is
10 years old or older
in total Polish stock
SUPPLY
DEMAND
VACANCY
RENTS
14
POLISH RETAIL MARKET
Source: Polish Retail Research Forum, CBRE, 2017Q1
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TOTAL INVESTMENT VOLUME
-5.00% Change in comparison to Q1 2016
PRIME OFFICE YIELD
+5.35%
PRIME RETAIL YIELD
+5.25%
PRIME INDUSTRIAL YIELD
+6.00%
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POLISH INVESTMENT MARKET
POLAND REMAINS A FAVOURITE DESTINATION AMONG INTERNATIONAL INVESTORS
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CONTACTS
POLAND OUTLOOK 2017