potential impact on developing...

Sea Level RisePotential Impact on Developing Countries

Authors

Susmita DasguptaBenoit Laplante Craig MeisnerDavid WheelerJianping Yan

Development Research GroupThe World Bank

Presentation Topics

1.Prospects for sea-level rise

3. Illustrative Cases

2.Exposure Assessment: PopulationEconomic activityAgricultureUrban areaEnvironment

IPCC Forecast (2000)

IPCC (2007)

Sea level rise will continue for centuries even if greenhouse gas concentrations were to be stabilized today.

Global sea level rose at an average rate of 1.8 [1.3 to 2.3] mm per year over 1961 to 2003.

The rate of sea level rise was faster over 1993 to 2003, about 3.1 [2.4 to 3.8] mm per year.

Projected sea level rise at the end of the 21st

century for different IPCC scenarios range from 0.18 to 0.59 meters.

Climate models used do not include uncertainties in climate–carbon cycle feedback nor do they include the full effects of changes in ice-sheet flow.

Recent Scientific Evidence

Since 1990 the sea level has been rising faster than projected by climate models.

The satellite data show a linear trend of 3.3mm/year (1993-2006), while the IPCC:2001 projected a best estimate rise of less than 2mm/year.

- Rahmstorf et al., Science Express, February 2007

In 2100 sea level is projected to rise 0.5m to 1.4m above the 1990 level.

This projection has applied a proportionality constant of 3.4mm/year/°c (a good approximation from the changes in the 20th century) to the future warming scenarios of the IPCC.

- Rahmstorf et al., Science, January 2007

“Paleoclimate information supports that the warmth of the last half century is unusual in at-least the previous 1300 years. The last time the polar regions were significantly warmer than present for an extended period (about 125,000 years ago), reductions in polar ice volume led to 4-6 meters of sea level rise”. - IPCC, 2007

Ice Sheet Meltand Sea Level Rise

1979 SSMI Composite Data 2003 SSMI Composite Data

Greenland Ice Sheet and Sea Level RiseThe Greenland ice cap is disintegrating far faster than previously predicted.

Surface melt on Greenland due to global warming is going into moulins, vertical shafts carrying water to ice sheet base, lubricating the ground and increasing movement of ice down-slope to the ocean.Satellite measurements show that Greenland glaciers are moving at an accelerated rate – some 3 times faster than previously thought.Greenland is losing at least 200 km3 of ice per year.

The implication of rising sea levels could be dramatic: Greenland holds enough ice to raise global sea levels by 7 meters.- Hansen, J., 2005, 2006

Greenland is dumping twice as much ice into the sea as it was five years ago.

Warming Island

A new island has appeared off Greenland coast, suddenly separated from the mainland by the melting of Greenland’s enormous ice sheet.

More islands like this may be discovered if the Greenland Ice Sheet continues to disappear.

- US Geological Survey

The US geological Survey has confirmed its existence with satellite photos, that show it as an integral part of the Greenland coast in 1985, but linked by only a small bridge in 2002, and completely separate by the summer of 2005. It is now a striking island of high peaks and rugged slopes plunging steeply to a sea dotted with icebergs. The map of Greenland will have to be redrawn.

- Michael McCarthy, April 2007 ( The island was discovered by Dennis Schmitt)

West Antarctic Ice Sheet and Sea level Rise

Source: Science Express, March 2, 2006: Measurements of Time-Variable Gravity Show Mass Loss in Antarctica, Isabella Velicogna and John Wahr

Ice Mass Changes, 2002-2005

Melting instead of stable, as previously thought

Current Antarctic loss rate: 152 ± 80 km3 / yr.

Ice Sheet Melt: On the Edge

“Ice sheets have contributed meters above modern sea level in response to modest warming, with peak rates of sea level rise possibly exceeding 1m/ century. Current knowledge cannot rule out a return to such conditions in response to continued GHG emissions. Moreover, a threshold triggering many meters of sea level rise could be crossed well before the end of this century.”

- Overpeck et al., Science, March 2006

“It takes time for an ice sheet to be softened up for cataclysmic collapse, but once it starts it is unstoppable. Some scientists believe that it may take centuries for ice sheets to collapse, but others, including me, believe that business-as-usual fossil fuel use would cause sea level rise measured in meters this century” .

- Hansen, J., 2006

Global Warming: Increase in Storm Intensities

Thomas R. Knutson and Robert E. Tuleya at NOAA's Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) http://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/~tk/glob_warm_hurr.html

Source: EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database www.em-dat.net - Université Catholique de Louvain - Brussels - Belgium

Natural Disaster Impacts 1980 – 2006 (Feb)

Natural disaster type Number of events

Killed Injured Total affected Total damages (000's USD)

Drought 530 558,982 - 1,612,692,798 55,508,146

Earthquake 644 291,508 797,887 81,098,546 289,991,179

Wind Storm 1934 268,581 498,270 578,524,479 445,749,972

Famine 68 232,299 - 70,396,301 93,399

Wave / Surge 29 229,159 42,490 2,494,524 7,713,397

Flood 2309 177,716 1,146,462 2,559,035,967 327,488,468

Epidemic 874 165,225 80,086 18,011,472 4,692

Extreme Temperature 272 70,237 1,820,526 11,411,723 21,591,447

Volcano 116 25,180 6,778 3,283,198 3,638,967

Landslide & avalanche 375 19,351 7,937 5,976,677 4,482,381

Wild Fire 263 1,203 2,551 3,975,366 28,243,643

Insect Infestation 75 - - 2,200 229,200

Severe Storms, 1981 - 2000

World Bank/Columbia University: Natural Disaster Hotspots Study 2005based on strom track data compiled by UNEP-GRID Geneva

DECRG-IE

Data Sources for estimating exposure:

• Elevation• Population and urban areas• GDP• Agricultural land• Environment: wetlands

Data :ElevationShuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) aboard the Space Shuttle Endeavor, launched on February 11, 2000

Horizontal data resolution on the ground of 90 meters (10 x better than previously available)

But: buildings and tree covers may influence height measurement (inundation zones may represent under prediction of impact in those areas)

Vertical accuracy within a few meters, but no evidence of systematic over-or underestimation of elevation

Joint project of NASA, DoD/NGA, German & Italian space agencies.

Data :Population & Urban Areas

Global geo-referenced population databases

Data sets compiled by CIESIN/Columbia University (with WB, IFPRI, CIAT and others)

– Gridded Population for the World v. 3 (GPW3)

– Global Rural Urban Mapping Project (GRUMP)

Urban areas delineated from nighttime satellite data (“city lights”) and other sources

Based on boundaries of ~ 400,000 administrative units with associated population totals

Data :GDPCompilation of subnational GDP where available, national totals everywhere else

Possible improvements: e.g., better/more subnational estimates, poverty maps

Total subnational GDP distributed on a per capita basis over population within administrative (or national) unit

Initially produced by DECRG for the World Bank/Columbia University Global Natural Disaster Hotspots Project

Subnational figures adjusted to match national WDI PPP figures

Data :Agricultural land

Produced by the International Food Policy Research Institute for the Millennium Ecosystems Assessment

Includes areas (1km grid cells) that are at least 30% agricultural land

Likely to underestimate some types ofagricultural land cover

Agricultural areas from global satellite derived land cover database (USGS/GLCC)

Data :Wetlands

Wetlands features from a Global Lakes and Wetlands Database

Data set produced by Center for Environmental Systems Research (CESR), University of Kassel, Germany, and World Wildlife Fund, Washington DC, USA (Lehner and Döll 2004)

Percent Impact : Population

Percent Impact : GDP

Percent Impact : Agricultural Land

Percent Impact : Urban Areas

Percent Impact : Population

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

South Asia Sub-SaharanAfrica

LatinAmerica &Caribbean

East Asia Middle East& NorthAfrica

Per

cen

t1 Meter Sea Level Rise1 Meter Sea Level Rise

Impact : Total Population

56.4 millionTotal

2.1 millionSub-Saharan Africa

2.9 millionLatin America &

Caribbean

5.9 millionSouth Asia

8.3 millionMiddle East & North Africa

37.2 millionEast Asia & Pacific

1 Meter Sea Level Rise1 Meter Sea Level Rise

Percentage ImpactPercentage ImpactMiddle East & North Africa: PopulationMiddle East & North Africa: Population

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Former Spanish Sahara

Algeria

I.R. Iran

Kuwait

Rep. of Yemen

Oman

Morocco

Qatar

Saudi Arabia

Libya

United Arab Emirates

Tunisia

A.R. Egypt

Percent

6.551,57224,015Wetlands (km2)

13.093,73028,498Agricultural Land (km2)

5.521,37824,953Urban Areas (km2)

6.4414,301222,186GDP (106 US$)

9.286,29667,884Population (103)

0.676,446968,071Area (km2)

% of TotalImpactedCountry Total

EgyptEgypt1 Meter Sea Level Rise1 Meter Sea Level Rise

Cairo

Alexandria Port Said

NASA/USGSLandsat Geocover

Nile Delta2000

Nile Delta2000

Nile Delta1m Sea Level Rise

Cairo

Alexandria Port Said

Nile Delta

Nile Delta1990

Nile Delta2000

10.188.726.55Wetlands (km2)

34.5024.9013.09Agricultural Land (km2)

11.588.725.52Urban Areas (km2)

16.3012.136.44GDP (106 US$)

20.8414.899.28Population (103)

1.581.160.67Area (km2)

5 meter3 meter1 meter

EgyptEgyptPercentage ImpactPercentage Impact

Nile Delta2000

Percentage ImpactPercentage ImpactEast Asia & Pacific : PopulationEast Asia & Pacific : Population

0 2 4 6 8 10 12

Papua New Guinea

North Korea

Malaysia

Brunei

South Korea

Cambodia

Philippines

Thailand

Myanmar

Indonesia

China

Taiwan China

Vietnam

Percent

28.6713,24146,179Wetlands (km2)


10.746345,904Urban Areas (km2)

10.2115,805154,787GDP (106 US$)

10.88,43778,137Population (103)

5.1716,977328,535Area (km2)

% of TotalImpactedCountry Total

VietnamVietnam1m Sea Level RiseAt Present

48.7822,52746,179Wetlands (km2)


18.551,0955,904Urban Areas (km2)

16.4925,522154,787GDP (106 US$)

17.9614,03678,137Population (103)

8.5528,090328,535Area (km2)

% of TotalExposedCountry Total

VietnamVietnam2 Meter Sea Level Rise2 Meter Sea Level Rise

67.3331,09446,179Wetlands (km2)


26.831,5845,904Urban Areas (km2)

24.1737,419154,787GDP (106 US$)

25.602,00378,137Population (103)

11.8328,860328,535Area (km2)



79.7638,63146,179Wetlands (km2)


34.652,0465,904Urban Areas (km2)

30.6947,509154,787GDP (106 US$)

32.4925,39078,137Population (103)

14.3347,080328,535Area (km2)



86.8240,09146,179Wetlands (km2)


41.182,4315,904Urban Areas (km2)

36.2056,035154,787GDP (106 US$)

38.1829,83678,137Population (103)

16.1152,926328,535Area (km2)



Impact : Industry

Almost all industrial parks in the South and a significant portion of handicraft villages in the North would go under water.

Percentage ImpactPercentage ImpactSouth Asia : PopulationSouth Asia : Population

0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8

Pakistan

India

Sri Lanka

Bangladesh

Percent

0.94999105,971Wetlands (km2)

0.65679104,389Agricultural Land (km2)

0.727310,153Urban Areas (km)2

0.631,266202,087GDP (106 US$)

0.73998137,439Population (103)

1.121,532136,305Area (km2)


BangladeshBangladesh1 m Sea Level Rise1 m Sea Level Rise

At Present

11.773.740.94Wetlands (km2)


9.743.530.72Urban Areas (km2)

8.863.330.63GDP (106 US$)

9.143.140.73Population (103)

10.883.981.12Area (km2)


BangladeshBangladeshPercent ImpactPercent Impact

5m Sea Level Rise

Percentage ImpactPercentage ImpactSub Saharan Africa : PopulationSub Saharan Africa : Population

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

Cameroon

D.R. Congo

Kenya

Eritrea

South Africa

Sudan

Congo

Equatorial Guinea

Tanzania, United Republic of

Sao Tome and Principe

Angola

Namibia

Mozambique

Nigeria

Somalia

Gabon

Madagascar

Sierra Leone

Guinea

Ghana

Guinea-Bissau

Togo

Ivory Coast

Liberia

Senegal

Djibouti

The Gambia

Benin

Mauritania

Percent

10.852,78925,694Wetlands (km2)


7.5043573Urban Areas (km)2

9.354654,972GDP (106 US$)

7.952122,665Population (103)

0.697,1771,036,905Area (km2)


MauritaniaMauritania1 m Sea Level Rise1 m Sea Level Rise

At Present

18.6415.1810.85Wetlands (km2)


37.3524.787.50Urban Areas (km2)

26.0917.489.35GDP (106 US$)

20.6315.997.95Population (103)

1.261.000.69Area (km2)


MauritaniaMauritaniaPercent ImpactPercent Impact

5m Sea Level Rise

Percentage ImpactPercentage ImpactLatin America & Caribbean : PopulationLatin America & Caribbean : Population

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

Guatemala

Honduras

Nicaragua

Costa Rica

Haiti

Peru

El Salvador

Chile

Dominican Republic

Colombia

Panama

Argentina

Mexico

Brazil

Cuba

Jamaica

R.B. de Venezuela

Ecuador

Belize

Uruguay

Puerto Rico

The Bahamas

French Guiana (Fr)

Guyana

Suriname

Percent

2.6961522,879Wetlands (km2)


4.2026619Urban Areas (km)2

6.35941,480GDP (106 US$)

7.0029.2417Population (103)

0.911,288141,133Area (km2)


SurinameSuriname1 m Sea Level Rise1 m Sea Level Rise

At Present

13.577.222.69Wetlands (km2)


47.8223.104.20Urban Areas (km2)

34.3219.806.35GDP (106 US$)

55.7630.677.00Population (103)

3.642.210.91Area (km2)


SurinameSurinamePercent ImpactPercent Impact

5m Sea Level Rise

Percent Impact : PopulationTop Top 1010 Countries: 1 Meter Sea Level RiseCountries: 1 Meter Sea Level Rise

0

2

4

6

8

10

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A.R

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Mau

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Su

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Gu

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Fre

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Gu

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Tu

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ConclusionsEven if greenhouse gas emissions were stabilized in the near future the sea level would continue to rise for many decades.

Millions of people in the developing world are likely to be displaced by sea level rise within this century and accompanying economic and ecological damage will severe for many.

Impacts are unevenly distributed across coastal countries with severe impacts limited to a few countries.

Immediate planning for adaptation would avoid big losses later.

Global Stakes:CO2 Emissions and Atmospheric Concentration

1900 - 2002

Common View: It’s the North’s problem; the North should fix it

“South”

“North”

290

310

330

350

370

390

1900 1925 1950 1975 2000 2025

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1900 1925 1950 1975 2000 2025

CumulativeCO2 Emissions(Gigatons)

AtmosphericCO2 Concentration(ppm)

Global CO2 Emissions and Atmospheric Concentration1900 - 2002

290

310

330

350

370

390

1900 1925 1950 1975 2000 2025

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1900 1925 1950 1975 2000 2025


AtmosphericCO2 Concentration(ppm)

290

315

340

365

390

0 200 400 600 800 1,000

Cumulative Emissions

CO

2 C

on

cen

trat

ion

Global CO2 Emissions and Atmospheric Concentration1900 - 2002

290

305

320

335

350

365

1900 1925 1950 1975 2000 2025

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1900 1925 1950 1975 2000 2025


AtmosphericCO2 Concentration(Parts per Million)

Northworld

Northworld

Southworld

290

305

320

335

350

365

1900 1925 1950 1975 2000 2025

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1900 1925 1950 1975 2000 2025

290

305

320

335

350

365

1900 1925 1950 1975 2000 2025

290

305

320

335

350

365

1900 1925 1950 1975 2000 2025

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1900 1925 1950 1975 2000 2025

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1900 1925 1950 1975 2000 2025



North

North

Cumulative Emissions and Atmospheric CO2 Concentratsion

North

290

305

320

335

350

365

1900 1925 1950 1975 2000 2025

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1900 1925 1950 1975 2000 2025



Northworld

Southworld

Northworld

Southworld

290

305

320

335

350

365

1900 1925 1950 1975 2000 2025

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1900 1925 1950 1975 2000 2025

290

305

320

335

350

365

1900 1925 1950 1975 2000 2025

290

305

320

335

350

365

1900 1925 1950 1975 2000 2025

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1900 1925 1950 1975 2000 2025

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1900 1925 1950 1975 2000 2025



North

South

North

South

North

South


290

305

320

335

350

365

1900 1925 1950 1975 2000 2025

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1900 1925 1950 1975 2000 2025



Northworld

Southworld

Northworld

Southworld

1985

290

305

320

335

350

365

1900 1925 1950 1975 2000 2025

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1900 1925 1950 1975 2000 2025

290

305

320

335

350

365

1900 1925 1950 1975 2000 2025

290

305

320

335

350

365

1900 1925 1950 1975 2000 2025

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1900 1925 1950 1975 2000 2025

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1900 1925 1950 1975 2000 2025



North

South

North

South

1985

North

South


• Even if the developed North had never existed, the

developing South would be on the threshold of a planetary climate crisis in 2007.

• By 2025, if a solitary South continued burning fossilized carbon, it would face the same climate crisis that the world is facing now.

• The South should act now to reduce carbon emissions.

• The North should assist urgently, not as an act of charity but from stark necessity.

• This boat is going to sink unless we all start bailing.

Conclusions

Photographs have been downloaded from Google Images.

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