presentation for executive energy class (edi/nyenrode)- 7 september 2016
TRANSCRIPT
2016 Year of Organization for Change on Energy, Climate Change Agreement and the Sustainable
Development post-2015 Agenda
EDI Energy Business Management
7th September 2016- The Hague, Netherlands
Adriaan Kamp
Energy For One World
Adriaan Kamp
2009- - Energy For One WorldA practice on Global Change, Energy and
Leadership.
Program Director Executive Energy (transition) & Leadership Education
20 years Industry/Shell International : Upstream ( 5 Countries and HQ).
Contents of Session
1. Year 2015: Global Change, Climate Change and the Sustainable Development Agenda post -2015
2. Year 2016: Organising ourselves for Change
3. Opportunities, Skills and our (Personal) Leadership
2016 Year of Organization for Change on Energy, Climate Change Agreement and the Sustainable Development post-2015 Agenda
Prof. Jeffrey Sachs- Earth Institute: The Age of Sustainable Development
9/1/2016
Clickable Video Presentation
NASA Latest -September 2016
BP Energy Outlook 2035
9/1/2016
BP Energy Statistics 2016
BRIC:It’s our time. Let us grow our Economies and take care of
our peopleYou’ll fix whatever you want to
fix!
The West:“If you do as I have done
it will be a mess.”
Let us all change- rapidlyLet’s secure our nation,
people and planet
Emerging:Will there be enough for
us?Can i afford it?
Who will deliver it to me?
The poor:When will we see electricity and get
mobility?
Opec and GasPec:You need us!
We can deliver your needs!What is all that fuzz about
Availability and climate change?
12
2014 2030-2050
7 Billion People
9 BillionPeople
90 trillion USD
economy
180-210 trillion
USD
225 million oil eq/day
500- 750 million
oil eq/day
400 ppm CO2 and Carbon Budget consumed for 2 degrees/ 21st century
??? ppm CO2 and Climate Change Effects
2/1/2012 Energy For One World- All Rights Reserved
01.09.2016
Geopolitical shifts and re-alignments
• Economic and finance system change and fundamentals
• A new technological era: 4th Industrial Revolution.
• Global production systems & the rise of new (multinational) corporations
• Social Changes (network economies), and the quest for wealth justice
• Planetary boundaries/ Resource Scarcities
• Demographic change and migration/ Changing labour markets
Global Change
PwC 1400 CEO Global View
Pope Francis and his Encyclical – on Poverty, Stewardship and the
Environment
Living Planet Reports
G7 and the next 100 years
UN FCCC COP21 Paris (3)
Paris Agreement
UN FCCC COP21 Paris (3) COP 21 Conclusion
22 ratifications
G20 Hangzhou
71st UN GA and COP 22
Year 2016 Agenda
How can we organize ourselves to support and achieve these
Three (3) Objectives?
1. Support the UN Sustainable Development Goals
2. Implement the Paris Agreement
3. Provide Energy to our Societies
Contents of Session
1. Year 2015: Global Change, Climate Change and the Sustainable Development Agenda post -2015
2. Year 2016: Organising ourselves for Change
3. Opportunities, Skills and our (Personal) Leadership
UNRegional Blocks
CountriesCities
CommunitiesCompanies and InstitutesCo-alitions of the Willing
Sustainable Community Building
The Rise of a new middle-class ( 3 Billion) – in MegaCitiesand more people live in Greater Tokyo (35m) than in all of Canada
The top 10 cities by population:
1. Tokyo, (34 million)
2. Seoul (24.4 million)
3. Guangzhou (24.2 million)
4. Mexico City (23.4 million)
5. Delhi (23.2 million)
6. Mumbai (22.8 million)
7. New York (22.2 million)
8. Sao Paolo (20.9 million)
9. Manila (19.6 million)
10. Shanghai (19.4 million)
All above fit comfortably into the list
Of Top-50 nations by population
Old and NewClickable Presentations
Vs 250 Bn USD investment
New Possibility Thinking (1)Mission Innovation
New Possibility Thinking (3)Largest Solar Farm (First Solar)
2 4 8 16 32 64 128 256 512 1024
2 yr 4yr 6yr 8 yr 10 yr 12 yr 14 yr 16 yr 18yr 20 yr
5 yr 10 yr 15 yr 20 yr 25 yr 30 yr 35 yr 40 yr 45 yr 50 yr
3500 hectares160,000 homes1,5 Bn USD550 MW8 million panels
New Possibility Thinking (4)Largest Offshore Wind Farm’s
4
2 4 8 16 32 64 128 256 512 1024
2 yr 4yr 6yr 8 yr 10 yr 12 yr 14 yr 16 yr 18yr 20 yr
5 yr 10 yr 15 yr 20 yr 25 yr 30 yr 35 yr 40 yr 45 yr 50 yr
An offshore area of 100km2175 wind turbinesTwo offshore substationsNearly 450km of offshore cablingOne onshore substation630MW of electricityEnough power for nearly half a million homes
New Possibility Thinking (6)Tesla and Solar City- A New Value Proposition
New Possibility Thinking (5): New distributed utility
Largest Ore Wind Farm’s
New Possibility Thinking (7)Car-manufacturer, Carlos Ghosn
Electric Vehicles sales are in direct correlation with the number and amount of charging stations installed in a city, region or nation.
It's a public-private partnership. It's a matter of trust. It's a matter of convenience. But it surely the way to go into our Future.
(Carlos doesnot believe in fuel-celled LPV's. He is truly committed to the electrification of self-driving and navigating new car concepts)
Uber Google
New Possibility Thinking(8)Smart Cities
The vision of “Smart Cities” is the urban center of the future, made safe, secure environmentally green, and efficient because all structures - whether for power, water, transportation, etc. are designed, constructed, and maintained making use of advanced, integrated materials, sensors, electronics, and networks which are interfaced with computerized systems comprised of databases, tracking, and decision-making algorithms. - U.S. Dept. of Energy, “The Vision of a Smart City”, 2000
Examples of New, Smart or Sustainable Cities:• C40 – Vancouver, Oslo, New York, etc. • Masdar, Abu Dhabi, • New Songho City, South Korea, • Gujarat International Finance Tec-City, India• King Abdullah + Economic CitIES, Saudi Arabia• e.g. China Tianjin Development••PM Modi’s 100 smart cities
•King Abdullah Economic City, Saudi Arabia
New Possibility Thinking (9) Better Architecture- Zero, Zero-Plus and more
9/1/2016
New Possibility Thinking (11)Energy Project Finance
New Possibility Thinking (12)Finance, Banks and Insurers
Plan China (1)
Plan China (2)
• Deepen energy revolution by establishing a modern energy system that is clean, low-carbon and efficient.
• Build a coordinated and integrated energy network.
• Control carbon emissions, honor climate commitments and deeply participate into global climate governance.
Plan China (3)
-- Quicken Belt and Road construction and expand win-win
cooperation to form a new comprehensive opening-up
landscape
-- Strengthen cooperation with international financial
institutions, push forward the Asian Infrastructure
Investment Bank and the BRICS New Development
Bank
Plan China (4)
and properly operate the Silk Road Fund. -- Build China-Mongolia-
Russia, China-Central Asia-West Asia, China-Indochina Peninsula,
China-Pakistan and Bangladesh-China-India-Myanmar economic
corridors, as well as the new Eurasian Land Bridge.
Plan China (5)
• PEOPLE'S WELL-BEING -- Lift 50 million people out of poverty and build a moderately prosperous society in all aspects.
• -- Fully implement two-child policy, with the total population reaching 1.42 billion.
.
Plan California (1)
Plan California (2)
Plan California (3)
Plan California (4)
Plan California (1)
The Dutch New Energy Delta Plan
World Power Sector
(electricity only- ~30% world energy)- IEA, June 2015
58
From WEF/ Accenture: The energy architecture is an integrated physical system of energy sources, carriers and demand sectors
shaped by government, industry and civil society.
The energy architecture on location is a reflection of the socio-political, economic, ecological and business philosophies,
leadership and interests exercised on location.
The energy architecture in a country, region or global community is (ideally) to serve (the rise of, establishment of) thriving sustainable societies- making energy available, affordable and sustainable to all: balancing economic
interests with that of society and nature. Here and there. Now and in the future.
59
Energy Architecture
Re-inventing Strategies/Relationships: “X-Factor of Integration, Transition
and Transformation”
Renewables
Energy Efficiency
Product Re-designs
Energy Architectures
Re-designs
Fossil
1 2
3
4
5
Levels of Maturity of ChangeIntegration- Transition- Transformation
• Level 1
• Level 2
• Level 3
• Level 4
• Change and No Change. Resistance to Change. Policy, Administrative and Derivative Change (CO2 tax, ETS, Accounting). Coal vs. Gas. Continued backroom lobbying
• Full Integration of Renewables (clean-tech, energy conservations, smartness, etc.) in the Energy Architecture - but not with a system change. Retained regulations, ownership , revenue, tax and capital control structures
• Transition to a New Energy Architecture and Newly shared socio-economic and corporate business models-also in international trade
• Transformation of Economies and Societies. Eco-modernity and New human consciousness
“Every Energy Company and Every Energy Architecture in this world can be improved
upon in order to raise the availability, affordability and sustainability of energy to
all”.- Adriaan Kamp, 2015
64
We are here- so mind the moment we are in!
Roughly Equals
Present
Oil & Gas Company
Jobs
Clean-Tech/ Renewables
Oil & Gas
The Present Big Elephant in the Room:
Suffering in Oil-Resource Economies
The Context We see Ourselves in
A New Business Worthiness Pledge
The United Nations Sustainable Development Goals provide a
once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to end poverty, combat climate
change and fight injustice and inequality. By applying
innovation, resources and expertise, I will pursue the business
opportunities inherent in building greener, more equitable and
inclusive societies
I am a business leader who knows that business cannot
succeed in societies that fail. I will do my utmost to be
businessworthy in all my efforts, and true to my business to
support the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals. I
call on my peers to do the same.
Country Categories
• OECD- USA, Canada, Europe, Japan, Australia
• (Richer, Resource based) OPEC/ GasPec
• China Inc., India Inc.
• Developing (without Resources)
• Developing (with Resources)
• Least developed. Poor.
Pathways for JobsEnergy & Non-Energy
Mainstream
• Governments (1)
• Energy Corporates and Incumbents (2)
• New Entrants/ Innovators/ Game-changers (3)
• Non-Energy Sectors/ Green Growth/ UN SDGs (4)
1+2+3+4 +5= Hybrid Eco-system Bottoms-up
• Community, Start-up Community (5)
No Jobs Plans
Dubai Understanding our Ways
•
New Jobs in Non-Energy Economy
197 countries need to change
Building New Bridges onEnergy & Sustainability
Focus – Impact- Meaning- Results
Contents of Session
1. Year 2015: Global Change, Climate Change and the Sustainable Development Agenda post -2015
2. Year 2016: Organising ourselves for Change
3. Opportunities, Skills and our (Personal) Leadership
One World. Many Needs. Many Views
“In Leadership- we are all students for life”
Energy For One World- 2012, All Rights Reserved
Leadership Levels
• Managing Yourself
• Managing Others
• Managing complex change &
• Managing multi-stakeholders
MANAGING YOURSELF
Energy For One World- 2012, All Rights Reserved
“Only good can come from good”
Energy For One World- 2012, All Rights Reserved
What happy people know
Energy For One World- 2012, All Rights Reserved
Conquering the self
Energy For One World- 2012, All Rights Reserved
MANAGING OTHERS
Energy For One World- 2012, All Rights Reserved
“Manage others as you would like to be managed yourself”
(golden rule)
Energy For One World- 2012, All Rights Reserved
Organizing people
9/1/2016
Ram Charan- Execute
Energy For One World- 2012, All Rights Reserved
The art of Entrepreneurs & The art of Execution
Entrepreneurs are in essence Opportunity Seekers and Realizers.
Executors (Managers) are the people who can organize things. They are inspired to lead people in performance and serve and align stakeholders.•
Good is the enemy of Great
From Good to Great
Energy For One World- 2012, All Rights Reserved
Here’s the essence of the gospel of Greenleaf. First and foremost, truly great managers want to serve the people they lead. They do this by supporting them rather than dictating to them, and by assigning top priority to employee well-being. Deceptively simple and deeply profound.
Energy For One World- 2012, All Rights Reserved
Servant Leadership : a simple but o-so-powerful idea
Turning you 180 degrees and making you available for growth
MANAGING COMPLEX CHANGE/ MULTI-STAKEHOLDERS
Energy For One World- 2012, All Rights Reserved
Energy For One World- 2012, All Rights Reserved
“Resistance to change falls when the benefits are clear”
Can We Change?
Ernest Gundling...Understanding Cultures and Relationships. The way it works
Energy For One World- 2012, All Rights Reserved
CoreValues
Cultural Dimensions
Global People Skills
CONSCIOUS
UNCONSCIOUS
Eco-
Conscious
Moderated Consumerism
Limits to Growth
Cradle-to-Cradle, Bio-Mimicry
Zero emissions
Nature First
Networked
Society
Away with traditional country and/or
corporate borders : City-Hubs.
Horizontal, cross-border
collaborations
Cultural awareness and tolerance
A new world of sharing and
Power to the People
Expansion of wealth, ownership and new growth
Continued Consumerism and Hedonistic life-styles.
Short-termism, Schumpeter, Ayn Rand, Resilience
A world of larger inequalities and divisions:
Rich and poor. Have’s and Have Not’s
Money First
Shared
Capitalis
m
A world of Power , Principles and
Politics
Polarisation between Beliefs and/or
Power Blocks
The Geo-politics of Emotions
Darwin’s Survival of the Fittest
Power to the Strongest,
First
Darwin
Techno
Modernity
The world of Prof. Michio Kaku and
Kurz Weill Singularity
Game-changers and Disruptive
Innovations
A world of Smart Cities, New Surprises ,
Exponential Growth and Abundance
The Rule of Science &
Technology
Conscious Capitalism
The rise of new (global and business)
leadership: Gandhi’s and Mandela’s
Neuroscience , psychology and spirituality
Gaia, Oneness and Global Mind-set.
Transformative
leadership
Conscious
Humanity