q2 2019 earnings presentation - norbord...earnings presentation august 1, 2019 forward-looking...
TRANSCRIPT
Q2 2019Earnings PresentationAugust 1, 2019
Forward-Looking Statements & Non-IFRS Financial Information
2
Notices
• All financial references are expressed in US$ unless otherwise noted.
• This presentation contains forward-looking statements and estimates.
• Such statements and estimates are based on assumptions as to the future and on management’s current expectations and are, naturally, subject to risks and uncertainties.
• Actual company results could differ materially from a conclusion, forecast or projection in the forward-looking information.
• Certain material factors or assumptions were applied in drawing a conclusion or making a forecast or projection as reflected in the forward-looking information.
• Additional information can be found in the Company’s annual information form, annual and quarterly MD&A, and on Norbord’s website (www.norbord.com) about the material factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from the conclusion, forecast or projection in the forward-looking information, and the material factors or assumptions that were applied in drawing a conclusion or making a forecast or projection as reflected in the forward-looking information.
• During the course of this presentation, certain non-IFRS financial information will be presented. Definitions and reconciliation of terms can be found in the Company’s annual and quarterly MD&A.
Q2 2019 Financial and Operational Highlights
3
Highlights
• Adjusted EBITDA of $36 million
• Loss of $0.17 per diluted share; Adjusted loss of $0.10 per diluted share
• European shipments up 7% year-over-year
• Termed out 2020 senior secured notes to 2027 at 5.75% coupon, upsized principal
by $110 million to bolster liquidity
• Declared quarterly variable dividend of C $0.40 per share for shareholders of record
on August 30, 2019
US Housing Starts
4
Business Drivers
Source: US Department of Commerce, except where otherwise noted
June 2019 SAAR housing starts was 1.25 million (+6% YoY), while the pace of housing permits (the more forward-looking indicator) was 1.22 million.
(in millions)
(1) Based on US housing economists’ forecasts.
(1)
North American Average Benchmark OSB Prices
5
Business Drivers
Spread SE vs NC 7 58 40 14 2
Spread WC vs NC 23 82 59 51 35
Source: Random Lengths
US$
/Msf
-7/1
6”
European Indicative OSB Price(1)
6
Business Drivers
€/m
3
(1) European indicative average OSB price represents the gross delivered price to the largest continental market.
298
305299
287 285
200
225
250
275
300
325
Q2 2018 Q3 2018 Q4 2018 Q1 2019 Q2 2019
Financial Summary
7
Financials
(1) Represents Canadian combined federal and provincial statutory rate.
(US $ millions, except per share information)
Q2 Q1 Q2 6 mos 6 mos
2019 2019 2018 2019 2018Sales $ 447 $ 476 $ 707 $ 923 $ 1,283Adjusted EBITDANorth America 18 23 256 41 412Europe 21 21 21 42 39
Unallocated (3) (2) (4) (5) (8)Total 36 42 273 78 443
(Loss) earnings $ (14) $ 1 $ 174 $ (13) $ 269
Adjusted for:Loss on disposal of assets 1 - - 1 -Stock-based compensation and related costs 1 1 1 2 2
Costs on early extinguishment of 2020 Notes 10 - - 10 -Costs related to 100 Mile House indefinite curtailment announcement 2 - - 2 -
Reported income tax (recovery) expense (10) (5) 53 (15) 89Adjusted pre-tax (loss) earnings (10) (3) 228 (13) 360
Income tax recovery (expense) at statutory rate(1) 2 1 (61) 3 (97)
Adjusted (loss) earnings (8) (2) 167 (10) 263
Adjusted EPS, basic (0.10) (0.02) 1.93 (0.12) 3.04Adjusted EPS, diluted (0.10) (0.02) 1.92 (0.12) 3.02
Adjusted EBITDA Variance
8
Financials
(US $ millions)
Q2 2019 Q2 2019 6 mos 2019vs. vs. vs.
Q1 2019 Q2 2018 6 mos 2018
Adjusted EBITDA – current period $ 36 $ 36 $ 78
Adjusted EBITDA – comparative period 42 273 443
Variance (6) (237) (365)
Mill nets(1) (19) (231) (357)
Volume(2) (4) (17) (7)
Key input prices(3) 8 3 (7)
Key input usage(3) 3 (2) (2)
Mill profit share and bonus 3 12 17
Other operating costs and foreign exchange(4) 3 (2) (9)
Total $ (6) $ (237) $ (365)
(1) The mill nets variance represents the estimated impact of changes in realized pricing across all products. Mill nets are calculated as sales (net of outbound freight costs)divided by shipment volumes.
(2) The volume variance represents the impact of shipment volume changes across all products.(3) The key inputs include fibre, resin, wax and energy.(4) The other operating costs and foreign exchange category covers all remaining variances including labour and benefits, maintenance, costs to ramp up the new Inverness,
Scotland line, and the one-time impact of adopting the new lease standard in 2019.
Liquidity and Capital Resources
9
Financials
(US $ millions, except per share information)
2019 Target
Q2 2019
Q1 2019
Q2 2018
6 mos2019
6 mos2018
Cash provided by operating activities before cash taxes and OWC changes $ 31 $ 33 $ 272 $ 64 $ 437
Cash taxes, net (16) (35) (28) (51) (98)
Operating working capital changes 21 (95) 6 (74) (85)
Cash provided by (used for) operating activities 36 (97) 250 (61) 254
Cash provided by (used for) operating activities per share 0.44 (1.18) 2.89 (0.74) 2.94
Operating working capital 162 183 212Capital expenditures, including investment in intangible assets 150 30 30 54 60 104
Balance Sheet
10
Financials
(US $ millions, unless otherwise noted)
BankCovenant
Jul 6,
2019
Dec 31,
2018
Long-term debt, principal value $ 905 $ 555
Add: Other long-term debt 82 -
Less: Cash and cash equivalents (315) (128)
Net debt 672 427
Less: Other long-term debt (82) -
Add: Other liabilities classified as debt for financial covenant purposes 2 -
Add: Letters of credit and guarantees 9 8
Net debt for financial covenant purposes 601 $ 435
Tangible net worth for financial covenant purposes Min. $500 1,069 1,132
Net debt to capitalization, book basis Max. 65% 36% 28%
Liquidity of $551 million* = $315 million in cash + $236 million in revolving bank lines
*Pro forma for the early repayment of the 2020 notes and repayment of accounts receivable securitization drawings on July 17, 2019, the Company’s liquidity would have been $302 million.
Appendices
Historical North American OSB Prices
12
Appendices
Source: Random Lengths
$100
$150
$200
$250
$300
$350
$400
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
An
nu
al A
vera
ge N
C P
rice
US$
per
Msf
7/1
6"
North Central Benchmark OSB Price
15-year average: $253
Q1 423 364 285 145 137 154 212 198 203 417 219 193 226 293 370 211
Q2 443 297 238 156 179 146 295 173 235 347 219 193 264 330 426 188
Q3 351 303 181 177 201 178 180 184 313 252 216 204 301 409 363
Q4 264 317 166 165 170 172 191 190 332 245 216 242 285 379 243
Average 369 320 217 161 172 163 219 186 271 315 218 209 269 353 351
Norbord does not provide guidance regarding its expectations of future OSB prices. The following is a sample of price forecasts by analysts as at July 31, 2019. It is not exhaustive.
Forecast North American OSB Prices
13
Appendices
Annual Average
North Central
Benchmark OSB Price US$ per Msf 7/16”
Analyst 2019F 2020E
Raymond James 250 270
BMO Capital Markets 243 285
Seaport Global 231 295
Scotiabank 220 290
TD Securities 217 260
CIBC World Markets 215 255
Vertical Research Partners 215 295
Bank of America Merrill Lynch 208 238
RBC Capital Markets 200 250
Average 222 271
North American OSB Industry Capacity of 27 Bsf
14
Industry Overview
Note: Excludes OSB siding production and capacity.
Source: APA, company documents and other public filings
37 Mills in Operation
5 Mills (Re)started in 2017/18
North American OSB Installed Capacity:
Norbord Mill
7 Mills (Re)started in 2012/13
1 Mill Idle
Financial Sensitivities
15
Appendices
Exposure Change
Adjusted EBITDA Impact (1)
(US$ millions)
North American OSB (2) $10 per Msf-7/16” + $64
European OSB €10 per 000 m3 + $11
Canadian dollar (1),(3) $0.01 per C$ + $6
Pound sterling £0.01 per € < $1
(1) Assumes operation at full stated capacity levels (including the curtailed Chambord, Quebec mill). Impact on Adjusted EBITDA of a $10 per Msf-7/16” change is ± $52 million based on the last twelve months of production at July 6, 2019.Direct exposures only; before the impact of any cash flow currency hedges.Approximate operating loss carry-forwards for tax purposes (gross) as at December 31, 2018 – Canada C$8 million and Belgium €32 million.
(2) Estimated impact of change in Norbord’s realized North American OSB price.
(3) Operating exposures only (excludes dividends on common shares and income tax payments).